General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[NorthernSpirit]

In the very long history of stupidity in electioneering this ridiculous stunt by Milliband must be up there as no.1.
I can't imagine any true labour supporters seeing that and thinking what a sensible idea it is.

Me mates father who was a stauch Labour voter for 50 years saw the above image and guess what he's switched parties, I'm not saying which one.

 

[Johnuk123]

I'll suggest the "i" newspaper. It's cheap and not politicised aswell as concise. Sorry about the Miliband name spelling comment. I'll remove it...
But isn't that image portraying Ed as a hero who freed slaves as in the bible?
Hardly a bad image is it.

You don't have to say sorry to me, it's nothing at all.

I suppose if his fans see him as a hero then that's fair enough.

 

[ExRes]

But isn't that image portraying Ed as a hero who freed slaves as in the bible?
Hardly a bad image is it.

Considering that anything vaguely representing religion and the bible is treated with such derision nowadays, I would've thought it was an extremely bad image

 

[me123]

Polls predict 3.9% of people to vote for the SNP and yet they're expected to get over 50 seats. The Lib Dems are expected to get around half that number of seats yet 8.1% of people are expected to vote for them, while UKIP are expected to get more votes than the Lib Dems yet only a few seats.

Possibly Labour, the Conservatives, the Lib Dems and UKIP will all agree that some kind of review is needed after the election even if they don't agree on the solution.

Yep, I completely believe that when FPTP starts to threaten the political elite, they'll start to consider PR. Remember, this is the system that seemingly most people in Westminster were very keen for us to support, oh how things change..

 

[TheKnightWho]

me mates father who was a stauch labour voter for 50 years saw the above image and guess what he's switched parties, i'm not saying which one.

UKIP?

Can't see someone switching to Tory over that.

 

[me123]

UKIP have released their Scottish manifesto. Or at least, they would have if it wasn't "delayed in the Bank Holiday post"... Mr Coburn (Scotland's UKIP MEP, who recently compared his political opponents to terrorists) led the launch, no sign of Mr Farage.

They have a proposal on fracking: "I think it is essential ... if some people had their way we would still be with William Wallace in a cave." (I have no idea what that's about).

On the issue of Trident, he says: ""I don't want to see Scotland turned into some stripped pine Scandinavian, peacenik sauna republic that the SNP seek to create." He also claims that the SNP want people to "live in mud huts".

He also defended his candidates who did not turn up at hustings and debates by saying that they were "real people with real jobs" and stated that "I would rather have real people, people like myself, people who actually have a job, rather than folk who are just in it for the game". Although I'd rather have people who were committed enough to actually put in some effort to their candidacy, and would expect my MPs to be working full time.

BBC News

This has to be a joke, right? This is utterly pathetic on every level. I've seen better from mock elections in secondary school. They don't stand a chance up here, but you'd think they'd at least try. Although, perhaps this is them trying?

(In the interests of fairness, I had hoped to link to the manifesto, but it appears that the bank holiday postal service has also managed to lose the website too...).
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In the very long history of stupidity in electioneering this ridiculous stunt by Milliband must be up there as no.1.
I can't imagine any true labour supporters seeing that and thinking what a sensible idea it is.

You know what, it's just so stupid that I'd actually quite like to see it happen.

 

[St Rollox]

The Scottish Ukip guy ain't no Farage.
Still, if he plays a part this week in splitting the unionist vote, good on him.

 

[radamfi]

I suspect this forecast may be wrong:

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Bradford West

 

[me123]

93% chance of winning, not 93% of the vote.

 

[radamfi]

93% chance of winning, not 93% of the vote.

I was really looking at the 3.5% prediction for Galloway. The bookies are predicting he will hold his seat.

 

[Johnuk123]

If anybody needs foreign currency in the next few weeks I'd get it now. Assuming we get a Labour/SNP Govt. the pound will definitely drop, by how much and for how long nobody knows.

 

[me123]

Unfortunately, there's been no polling in that seat to date. Which is quite surprising given what a polarising, controversial and high profile figure he is.

But it's worth remembering that by-elections produce odd results that may well not be replicated in a national election, because usually the high profile national policies become less important and the local candidates and local issues become more important. Independents such as Mr Galloway particularly suffer because they've got little national profile compared to the main competition.
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If anybody needs foreign currency in the next few weeks I'd get it now. Assuming we get a Labour/SNP Govt. the pound will definitely drop, by how much and for how long nobody knows.

Definitely?

 

[TheKnightWho]

If anybody needs foreign currency in the next few weeks I'd get it now. Assuming we get a Labour/SNP Govt. the pound will definitely drop, by how much and for how long nobody knows.

Oh no. End of the world.

The pound will not drop because of a Labour/SNP government anyway. Plus a weaker pound is good for exports anyway, which is something the right are always banging on about - home manufacturing and all that.

A weak currency is not a bad thing - China artificially lowers the value of its currency because it knows it's to its advantage.

 

[Johnuk123]

Oh no. End of the world.

The pound will not drop because of a Labour/SNP government anyway. Plus a weaker pound is good for exports anyway, which is something the right are always banging on about - home manufacturing and all that.

A weak currency is not a bad thing - China artificially lowers the value of its currency because it knows it's to its advantage.

Read what I wrote, which was get your foreign currency now, I never mentioned anything else.

A weak currency can be a good thing but it also makes all imported goods more expensive which is not good.

Put it like this assuming we get a labour/SNP Govt. the pound will not improve in value.

The financial markets would be happy with another Tory/Lib or Tory only Govt, both are not likely.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Read what I wrote, which was get your foreign currency now, I never mentioned anything else.

A weak currency can be a good thing but it also makes all imported goods more expensive which is not good.

Put it like this assuming we get a labour/SNP Govt. the pound will not improve in value.

The financial markets would be happy with another Tory/Lib or Tory only Govt, both are not likely.

Of course, but my point is that a drop is not necessarily a bad thing, and certainly does not happen just because of a drop of confidence in the economy.

I am entirely aware of the economics of strong and weak currencies, but I was making a flippant point that a weak currency is not necessarily a bad thing for those of us who are more right-wing inclined.

 

[Johnuk123]

Of course, but my point is that a drop is not necessarily a bad thing, and certainly does not happen just because of a drop of confidence in the economy.

I am entirely aware of the economics of strong and weak currencies, but I was making a flippant point that a weak currency is not necessarily a bad thing for those of us who are more right-wing inclined.

A hung parliament of any sort will actually worry the financial markets, in the world of finance predictability and stability is key.

 

[Busaholic]

I was really looking at the 3.5% prediction for Galloway. The bookies are predicting he will hold his seat.

He's an expert in garnering the vote: those postal votes will be in already, don't forget. Those charged with combatting election fraud are apparently looking at postal votes in his old constituency in Tower Hamlets, not that I'm suggesting any connection with GG of course, and his old friend Lutfur Rahman.

 

[Tetchytyke]

His current constituency and Tower Hamlets both have very specific issues that are very specific to those areas, shall we say.

Although Galloway was very good at mobilising the female vote in his current constituency, so it is a bit different to Rahman.

 

[TheKnightWho]

A hung parliament of any sort will actually worry the financial markets, in the world of finance predictability and stability is key.

It is, but the fact is that this is a short-term issue that only affects the UK because it isn't considered normal. In time it will be, especially as people demand voting reform.

Germany's markets do not suffer because of their constant coalitions.

 

[Busaholic]

Unfortunately, there's been no polling in that seat to date. Which is quite surprising given what a polarising, controversial and high profile figure he is.

But it's worth remembering that by-elections produce odd results that may well not be replicated in a national election, because usually the high profile national policies become less important and the local candidates and local issues become more important. Independents such as Mr Galloway particularly suffer because they've got little national profile compared to the main competition.
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Definitely?

The shy,retiring Mr Galloway has to be dragged kicking and screaming onto the sets of Question Time,Today, Any Questions etc and, just in case he goes unnoticed with his mousy reticence he now finds it necessary to wear a huge hat for these appearances just so we can recollect him afterwards. His voice barely carries beyond the first 100 rows of the auditorium and he is always first to give way to other speakers. No-one can ever remember a word of what he has said afterwards as he is so anodyne and uncontroversial.Yes, he suffers greatly for his low profile, particularly as he is so keen to turn the other cheek. His more hotheaded friends are always urging him to sue for libel, but he is determined never to go down that road.

 

[DaveHarries]

I hope Miliband does not become PM.

So do I and I won't be voting for Labour, UKIP or the BNP.

I suspected that E.M ruling out a deal with the SNP was an effort to try and encourage more to vote for him and I don't believe he will keep the SNP out from south of the border where they have no right to govern.

In addition I disagree with Labour on:

- Europe: I think a poll on whether we stay in the EU would be no bad thing although I am pro-EU and would rather we stayed in.

- Zero Hours Contracts: I am unclear if Labour plan to abolish them (as I was told earlier today) or reform them. However there are some lines of work where the amount of work going fluctuates and therefore a fixed contract of x hours per week might prove difificult for the employer to keep to if things went quiet. I am on one of those lines of work. However I also appreciate the flexibility offered by the ZHC I am on: however I would reform them slightly.

- Economy: I am not sure that E.M has costed some aspects properly on his economic policy: he has not, for example, said how he would fund the reduction in University tuition fees so that policy may not win him many votes. Also I am a low earner and would expect to be paying higher taxes sooner or later if Labour were to win.

Also, in my constituency (Bristol NorthWest), the current Conservative MP has done very well since she was elected and I am therefore prepared to vote for her again. What may not help the Labour candidate in this area is that the last Labour MP we had was a total looser in all senses of that word. I am not referring to the candidate this time around as a looser though as I have never met him.

Lastly I believe that Labour are red for a reason and red spells danger.

Dave

 

[radamfi]

Surely any government including the Tories would put back bus regulation for another 5 years? We've been waiting 29 years. It's in the Lib Dem manifesto but I doubt they would force the Tories into it. They didn't in the last 5 years. Although we have the Greater Manchester devolution deal, which I admit is progress.

However, SNP, despite claiming to be progressive, might block Labour regulation plans.

 

[pemma]

I suspected that E.M ruling out a deal with the SNP was an effort to try and encourage more to vote for him and I don't believe he will keep the SNP out from south of the border where they have no right to govern.

BBC News suggested yesterday Cameron with first try to form a minority government with the Lib Dems, the DUP and UKIP but it won't work. Even if the Lib Dems agree it's likely to fail a confidence vote.

However, they went on to say a Labour + Lib Dem minority government could survive a confidence vote as parties like the SNP, Plaid Cymru, Greens and Respect are less likely to vote against it.
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I suspect this forecast may be wrong:

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Bradford West

I suspect the forecast for Tatton may be wrong as well:
http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Tatton

Osborne losing votes but still winning - very likely.

Labour gaining votes - likely.

The Lib Dems (who came second last time) coming fourth - possible.

However, the forecast seems to suggest either a significant number of people who voted Lib Dem or Independent last time will vote UKIP this time or a significant number of people who didn't vote last time will vote UKIP. I think UKIP coming third is possible but I think if they do then Osborne will lose more votes than they're predicting.

 

[47802]

BBC News suggested yesterday Cameron with first try to form a minority government with the Lib Dems, the DUP and UKIP but it won't work. Even if the Lib Dems agree it's likely to fail a confidence vote.

However, they went on to say a Labour + Lib Dem minority government could survive a confidence vote as parties like the SNP, Plaid Cymru, Greens and Respect are less likely to vote against it.
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I suspect the forecast for Tatton may be wrong as well:
http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Tatton

Osborne losing votes but still winning - very likely.

Labour gaining votes - likely.

The Lib Dems (who came second last time) coming fourth - possible.

However, the forecast seems to suggest either a significant number of people who voted Lib Dem or Independent last time will vote UKIP this time or a significant number of people who didn't vote last time will vote UKIP. I think UKIP coming third is possible but I think if they do then Osborne will lose more votes than they're predicting.

I'm not convinced things will quite pan out as the polls suggest I think there will be considerable tactical voting in this election which will change things a bit.

Clearly it is likely to be easier for Labour in the event of a similar number of seats to the Tories, with the SNP prepared to work with Labour in some form.

 

[telstarbox]

The polls account for tactical voting. If you look at the last few polls before the 2010 election they mostly match the vote share outcome closely.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election#2010

 

[pemma]

The polls account for tactical voting. If you look at the last few polls before the 2010 election they mostly match the vote share outcome closely.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election#2010

Just after seeing your post, this appears in my Facebook feed

Your guide to tactical voting in the general election
http://i100.independent.co.uk/artic...al-voting-in-the-general-election--gJZnzmwFgZ

With most of the copy embedded in images it's not possible to copy and paste it in to a post.

 

[fishquinn]

Any coalition involving UKIP would be terrible. In fact anything involving UKIP. A coalition with the Green Party and Labour/Lib Dems or a Hung Parliament is how I would want it to go.

 

[Johnuk123]

Regarding the now infamous Ed tombstone Labours election chief Lucy Powell has today said :

I don’t think anyone is suggesting that the fact that he’s carved them into stone means, you know, means that he will absolutely, you know, not going to break them or anything like that.”

The lefties bible the Guardian said yesterday :

Ed Miliband has raised the stupidity bar still higher.

What on earth ever possessed Miliband to spend 30 grand on a tombstone of vacuous tosh that looks like it's been written by an immature student.
The criticism and laughter has been totally universal, probably the funniest thing since 2 jags tried to hit a member of the public in Rhyl and missed.

 

[Busaholic]

Regarding the now infamous Ed tombstone Labours election chief Lucy Powell has today said :




The lefties bible the Guardian said yesterday :



What on earth ever possessed Miliband to spend 30 grand on a tombstone of vacuous tosh that looks like it's been written by an immature student.
The criticism and laughter has been totally universal, probably the funniest thing since 2 jags tried to hit a member of the public in Rhyl and missed.

Of course it's fatuous, and a big mistake, but nothing like as fatuous as Cameron seeking to enact legislation to stop increases in income tax and VAT. Like admitting you can't trust a word the Tories say, so I'm going to pass a bill to prevent me doing what I really want and intend to do. You couldn't make it up.

Through my door this morning, by post, the umpteenth election communication from the Tories - been one every single weekday for the last fortnight. Wonder how much the Tories will be claiming on election expenses in my constituency: my wife and I can't be the only people receiving them. I'm keeping them all, not just to stoke a bonfire, but to compare with their election expenses here when published, particularly if they should win.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Regarding the now infamous Ed tombstone Labours election chief Lucy Powell has today said :




The lefties bible the Guardian said yesterday :



What on earth ever possessed Miliband to spend 30 grand on a tombstone of vacuous tosh that looks like it's been written by an immature student.
The criticism and laughter has been totally universal, probably the funniest thing since 2 jags tried to hit a member of the public in Rhyl and missed.

"The lefties bible"

Oh to be a right-winger, where everything is simple, easy to understand and can be pigeonholed.

John, please stop. You're embarrassing yourself.