General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[table38]

This may come as a shock but Dave is considered a plummy Tory pasty faced doughboy laughing stock amongst large sections of the community but it hasn't done him any harm

But Cameron isn't pretending to be anything that he is not.

Ed "two kitchens" Miliband sits in his £2m house and pretends to be a man of the people, the champion of the ordinary working man. But then when he tries to act like an ordinary working man, he actually hasn't got the life experience, hence - disaster

Here's a picture of non-plummy non-pasty-faced non-laughing-stock man of the people Miliband when he was at University

 

[Trog]

And other politicians are proposing "English votes for English laws", which would exclude Scottish MPs from taking part in some UK parliamentary votes. If we have a UK parliament for the Union, shouldn't the SNP and Scottish MPs be allowed to participate on an equal basis ?

Quite right please clear some room in the Scottish parliament so the MP's from the rest of the UK can come up and vote on Scottish matters.

The proposed reduction in voting rights for Scottish MP's at Westminster is or should be where the vote is about something that if it involved Scotland would be a matter for the Scottish parliament. It is not so much excluding the Scottish MP's as that part of their role being carried out by their Scottish parliament equivalent.

If there was an English only parliament the English MP's also would not vote on these matters as they too would have an equivalent to do that for them. But lets save some money and have the English Westminster MP's do both roles while the Scots sit back and watch them, rather than pay twice.

 

[TheKnightWho]

But Cameron isn't pretending to be anything that he is not.

Ed "two kitchens" Miliband sits in his £2m house and pretends to be a man of the people, the champion of the ordinary working man. But then when he tries to act like an ordinary working man, he actually hasn't got the life experience, hence - disaster

Here's a picture of non-plummy non-pasty-faced non-laughing-stock man of the people Miliband when he was at University

Every single Oxford student has to wear that. It's called subfusc, and it's what is worn for exams and the odd special event. It's hardly representative. On the other hand, behold our glorious leader David Cameron. By contrast, this was done out of choice.

(This was discovered by a friend extremely recently, and has only just been published. NSFW.)

 

[radamfi]

http://news.channel4.com/election2015/05/06/update-5192/

EXCLUSIVE Union bosses tell Miliband: Offer Lib Dems voting reform to keep Cameron out

 

[pemma]

Ed "two kitchens" Miliband sits in his £2m house and pretends to be a man of the people, the champion of the ordinary working man. But then when he tries to act like an ordinary working man, he actually hasn't got the life experience, hence - disaster

One polling company asked people where you would expect to find the party leaders doing their weekly shop.

The conclusion was Farage would be in Aldi, Cameron would be in Waitrose, Clegg would be in Co-op and Miliband would probably be in Waitrose but he'd get out bags for life which show a much cheaper supermarket name like Lidl.

 

[Trog]

Can someone explain to me why the right wing media think Ed Miliband eating a bacon sandwich is A) important and B) funny? Because for some reason, I don't think either category fits it. I guess they must be running scared at the thought of a potential Labour government this weekend.

I think it is because Ed is of Jewish heritage, even if not active in the faith himself.

There is thus an implication that he is willing to ignore his beliefs just for the sake of a good election photo.


Myself I think the less notice our leaders take of the strange instructions of the various sky fairies the better.

 

[radamfi]

Did Clegg sit on a coach the whole way from Land's End to John O'Groats, or did he take a plane while the coach did the trip without him?

 

[me123]

Leaflets from each party at my house

Labour 10
SNP 0
Tories 0
LibDems 0

Since every seat in Scotland is now a marginal i'm not sure what that tells me.

That Labour are panicking. Big time.

I think I've already said that I'm currently with my family in the previous safest Labour seat in the UK, Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill. Previously we got just one or two leaflets, presumably the freebie that all parties get. Labour could have stuck a red rosette on a donkey and it'd have got in. Indeed, some could argue that's exactly what they did.

Clearly you cannot say that any involvement of the SNP is undemocratic, however I personally don't want to see them form part of government because of the fact that they don't believe in the very existence of a UK government, and of course the Scottish Parliament has significantly more power than the rest of the UK and will no doubt get more power going forward.

Unfortunately, plenty of people claim that the SNP's involvement is undemocratic for that very reason. Another thing that perhaps drives the SNP vote is the assertion that we're "better together", but if we don't vote the way England want us to vote (Labour or Tory) then there'll be "chaos".

I see no reason why the SNP can't take a full part in any parliament and government as the case may be.

Indeed, if they do get over 50 seats in Scotland, no government could claim to have a mandate in Scotland without at least some level of support from the SNP.

Does anyone in Scotland complain about the voting system for the Scottish Parliament and wish they had FPTP?

Never heard a complaint about it. Aside from when the SNP won a majority, when people complained that they were "assured "that the system would not allow a majority (which is nonsensical - it makes a majority less likely but far from impossible).

Never heard a complaint about STV either, which is used in our council elections.

 

[table38]

It's hardly representative.

So are you saying Cameron's outfit is representative? Did he dress like that all of the time, or was it maybe just for special occasions like Miliband?

It's called subfusc

Of course. The garb of every day working class men everywhere

 

[radamfi]

Never heard a complaint about it. Aside from when the SNP won a majority, when people complained that they were "assured "that the system would not allow a majority (which is nonsensical - it makes a majority less likely but far from impossible).

Never heard a complaint about STV either, which is used in our council elections.

I thought so. As long as we don't get electoral reform, it will always be hanging over our head. We need to just get on with it.

 

[TheKnightWho]

So are you saying Cameron's outfit is representative? Did he dress like that all of the time, or was it maybe just for special occasions like Miliband?



Of course. The garb of every day working class men everywhere

He was a member of the Bullingdon Club out of choice, and chose to dress like that. Unless Miliband wanted to just not go to Oxford he didn't have a choice.

I would have thought it was obvious that was the key difference.

 

[table38]

He was a member of the Bullingdon Club out of choice, and chose to dress like that. Unless Miliband wanted to just not go to Oxford he didn't have a choice.

I would have thought it was obvious that was the key difference.

Ah. I assumed Miliband chose to go to Oxford. I didn't realise he had no choice.

 

[DarloRich]

But Cameron isn't pretending to be anything that he is not.

Ed "two kitchens" Miliband sits in his £2m house and pretends to be a man of the people, the champion of the ordinary working man. But then when he tries to act like an ordinary working man, he actually hasn't got the life experience, hence - disaster

Here's a picture of non-plummy non-pasty-faced non-laughing-stock man of the people Miliband when he was at University

£2m in London isn't a particularity fancy house, sadly. Anyway, i thought it was 2 kitchens and a separate hot drink preparation area for the nanny ;-0

When I got my degree i had to wear a gown and motar board. It was the only time i have ever dressed like that but i am sure if someone wanted you could use it to score a silly point.

As for white tie and tails surely all respectable gentleman dress in such a fashion

 

[TheKnightWho]

Ah. I assumed Miliband chose to go to Oxford. I didn't realise he had no choice.

Miliband decided to prioritise getting 3 years of good education over the occasional times he had to wear subfusc.

Cameron decided to wear the Bullingdon outfit entirely for its own merits in his view.

It's almost like there's more context than you're letting on. This is hardly a fair equivalence, and I'm sure you know that. You have to look at why they're wearing that outfit: the papers are implying Miliband is a toff for wearing it, and I'm explaining why he isn't. On the other hand, Cameron wore the Bullingdon outfit... because he was in the Bullingdon Club, a posh boys' drinking society known for riotous vandalism, misogyny and deplorable behaviour all paid for by daddy's credit card.

 

[Gathursty]

I do not believe the Barnett formula relates to European funds

I know those two things are unrelated. The point I was making was that the EU seem to give Scotland and Wales more money than England, particularly for infrastructure projects. The added benefit of the Barnett Formula as well is something I find a bit hard to stomach.

 

[telstarbox]

Polls today suggest it's still very close between the two largest parties.

 

[table38]

It's almost like there's more context than you're letting on.

Oh no, it's conspiracy season again! Tin-foil hats on chaps

This is hardly a fair equivalence, and I'm sure you know that. You have to look at why they're wearing that outfit: the papers are implying Miliband is a toff for wearing it, and I'm explaining why he isn't. On the other hand, Cameron wore the Bullingdon outfit... because he was in the Bullingdon Club, a posh boys' drinking society known for riotous vandalism, misogyny and deplorable behaviour paid for by daddy's credit card.

You seem to know a lot about the Bullindon Club. If it was as bad as all that, perhaps you can explain why the restaurants accepted the bookings? Why a group of easily identifiable students in fancy dress weren't perused back to their colleges and brought to justice by the police?

 

[DarloRich]

Polls today suggest it's still very close between the two largest parties.

exactly - anyone who says they can predict the result is making it up. It is really very close and very exciting.

There will be one more push tomorrow by the Tory propaganda sheets to win it for their placemen. The papers today were scandalous and a disgrace to journalism.
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If it was as bad as all that, perhaps you can explain why the restaurants accepted the bookings? Why a group of easily identifiable students in fancy dress weren't perused back to their colleges and brought to justice by the police?

Because they are very rich and from powerful families and no doubt made a suitable contribution to the restauranteurs to make any problems disappear

 

[TheKnightWho]

Oh no, it's conspiracy season again! Tin-foil hats on chaps



You seem to know a lot about the Bullindon Club. If it was as bad as all that, perhaps you can explain why the restaurants accepted the bookings? Why a group of easily identifiable students in fancy dress weren't perused back to their colleges and brought to justice by the police?

It's not like it's not known about in Oxford. The restaurants accepted the booking because they booked under a fake name - this is common for drinking societies. They moved around, for obvious reasons, and they generally paid the restaurants off, for obvious reasons. Do you honestly think this kind of thing is all just made up? It's almost like you're desperate to try and pretend it wasn't like that, when you've got very little evidence to the contrary. On the other hand, I actually live here and have seen myself how these sorts of societies operate. The Bullingdon is now banned as far as I know, but from what I know it operates in secret, but there are others that do similar sorts of things. You hear about this kind of stuff in the student press and on the grapevine all the time.

And I have to say, being told I'm a tin-foil hattist for saying that two people might wear similar outfits for completely different reasons that mean completely different things is f****** hilarious. Genuinely laughed.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Wow 99 pages and over 1400 posts later and we're still going strong! Suppose on the eve of the election I should revisit my initial predictions. The Labour/SNP coalition I first mooted has been ruled out but I still believe that a minority Labour government with informal support from the SNP remains the most likely outcome. As for seat projections here it goes (I am only giving ranges because of the vagaries of translating FPTP voting into individual seats)

Conservatives 275-290
Labour 265-280
Lib Dem's 26-30
SNP 52-56
UKIP 4-5
Plaid Cymru 3-4
Green 1

Northern Ireland - No Change
DUP 8
SDLP 3
Sinn Fein 5
Alliance 1
Independent 1

IMO the tipping point will come around the conservatives and 290 seats, above this Cameron could just form a majority from the Lib Dem's, DUP and UKIP. Below 290 and the advantage swings to Milliband's favour even if Labour are the second party (cue the Sun, Mail, Express and Telegraph screaming blue murder).

Other predictions:-
Nigel Farrage will be elected in Thanet South along with UKIP taking Thurrock and possibly Grimsby but that will be the limit of their gains.
Nick Clegg will hold on to Sheffield Hallam thanks to a tactical vote from Tory supporters.

 

[table38]

They moved around, for obvious reasons, and they generally paid the restaurants off, for obvious reasons. Do you honestly think this kind of thing is all just made up?

It's almost like you're desperate to try and pretend it wasn't like that, when you've got very little evidence to the contrary.

Hardly desperate, my evidence is the lack of arrests, or any discipline by the university.

What I suspect it was like was just some normal student high-jinks exaggerated by the left to prop up their usual bankrupt class war.

Students go drinking - get over it
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Genuinely laughed.

Love the narrative. So helpful in understanding people's motives

 

[TheKnightWho]

Hardly desperate, my evidence is the lack of arrests, or any discipline by the university.

What I suspect it was like was just some normal student high-jinks exaggerated by the left to prop up their usual bankrupt class war.

Students go drinking - get over it

I am a student. Thanks for letting me know what I do and how things work at my own university I also know exactly how drinking societies work here. For some reason I suspect I might know just a little more than you about this sort of thing.

The Bullingdon is famous for this, and I know exactly the sorts of things that happen. Just admit that David Cameron is a huge toff, and far more than Miliband as much as you might want to demonise him. It's genuinely funny when the Tory press has to resort to highly disingenuous smears against Miliband when Cameron is the massive elephant in the room with those sorts of pictures going around.

Oh, and for those who want to see what it's like today. Again, NSFW.

Boris Johnson referred to the club as “a truly shameful vignette of almost superhuman undergraduate arrogance, toffishness and twittishness,” of which the result was a “deep, deep self-loathing.”

 

[table38]

Just admit that David Cameron is a huge toff.

Happily. As explained above, he's not pretending to be anything else, unlike certain hypocrites I could mention.

But I am disappointed that I didn't make you genuinely laugh this time. I must be slipping

 

[TheKnightWho]

Happily. As explained above, he's not pretending to be anything else, unlike certain hypocrites I could mention.

But I am disappointed that I didn't make you genuinely laugh this time. I must be slipping

So why do you refuse to admit that Miliband had to wear that uniform? As DarloRich has pointed out, we all have to do things like that on occasion. It hardly makes Miliband a toff.

Unless you want to say that he shouldn't have gone to Oxford, which is a hilarious false equivalence when placed against Cameron choosing whether or not to be in a drinking society.

 

[table38]

So why do you refuse to admit that Miliband had to wear that uniform? As DarloRich has pointed out, we all have to do things like that on occasion. It hardly makes Miliband a toff.

Unless you want to say that he shouldn't have gone to Oxford, which is a hilarious false equivalence when placed against Cameron choosing whether or not to be in a drinking society.

Quite right. But I'd still rather have Cameron in charge of the country as his own man, making his own mistakes and learning from them, rather than the hypocrite Miliband.

Your post genuinely made me go and make a cup of tea.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Quite right. But I'd still rather have Cameron in charge of the country as his own man, making his own mistakes and learning from them, rather than the hypocrite Miliband.

Your post genuinely made me go and make a cup of tea.

How, exactly, is Miliband a hypocrite in this situation?

It's a false equivalence because the consequences of going to Oxford are vastly different from the consequences of being in a drinking society. I didn't bring it up just to go "Look, look! David Cameron is bad!" It was to point out that the two have completely different contexts with completely different implications. One is someone doing it because they have to whilst they're getting educated; the other is doing it because they quite simply chose to dress up like that and nothing more. Regardless of whether you care or not about what that means for the leadership today, the point is that you cannot call them the same thing and make Miliband out to be a hypocrite for criticising Cameron for being in the Bullingdon.

 

[pemma]

IMO the tipping point will come around the conservatives and 290 seats, above this Cameron could just form a majority from the Lib Dem's, DUP and UKIP. Below 290 and the advantage swings to Milliband's favour even if Labour are the second party (cue the Sun, Mail, Express and Telegraph screaming blue murder).

You may recall last time they were calling Gordon Brown a squatter when in fact he was just doing what he was supposed to do in the event of a hung parliament.

 

[table38]

How, exactly, is Miliband a hypocrite in this situation?

It was just a general observation.

 

[DarloRich]

@table38 @theknightwho:

I dont really care what the politicians wear at university or how they eat a sandwich, what i care about is what they say.

 

[TheKnightWho]

It was just a general observation.

So either you know you were wrong in this situation or your posting that picture was irrelevant. Good to know.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

@table38 @theknightwho:

I dont really care what the politicians wear at university or how they eat a sandwich, what i care about is what they say.

Image matters, though. Both to voters but also for the fact that charisma and gravitas do play an important part of the leadership role as well. You can't really separate the two, although I admit it's given far too much of the spotlight.