General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[me123]

Airdrie & Shotts has fallen to SNP: perhaps again not a big surprise, given that it's had a strong SNP support ever since the Labour administration in Scotland mishandled Monklands Hospital so badly back in 2007.
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Jim Murphy is gone!

SNP took east Renfrewshire by a (relatively) slim majority of "just" 4,000-odd votes. Tactical voting never materialised.

As if it wasn't already almost certain, I can say that there's likely to be yet another Scottish leadership election for Labour only months after he's been elected.

 

[bb21]

3% swing to the Tories in Labour's biggest target. That just about sums it up for Labour tonight.

How's that 10-seat shortfall for the Tories looking?

 

[PermitToTravel]

The claim of SNP gaining every single seat in Scotland is quickly becoming a reality, swing in the 20%'s for nearly every constituency. Saying that, how exactly do they calculate the % swing?

Winning party's proportion of the votes, less the same party's proportion last time. For example, the SNP have just taken Stirling polling 45.6%; they only managed 17.3% last time. That's a swing of 45.6% - 17.3% = 28.3%

 

[me123]

Margaret Curran lost to SNP in Glasgow East with a >10,000 vote majority.

She's another face I'm glad to see the smirk wiped from. She was a Labour minister in the Scottish Parliament (like Cathy Jamieson, the first casualty tonight). She turned her back on Holyrood for a "promotion" to Westminster, where she faded into obscurity and will be signing on later today.
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30 SNP seats. 58 beginning to look achievable. Will Paddy Ashdown literally eat his hat on national TV?

 

[Searle]

Winning party's proportion of the votes, less the same party's proportion last time. For example, the SNP have just taken Stirling polling 45.6%; they only managed 17.3% last time. That's a swing of 45.6% - 17.3% = 28.3%

Thanks, it's very simple when someone actually explains it (not like what they're doing on TV )

 

[me123]

SNP for Glasgow South West. Another comfortable majority. Glasgow has swung massively towards SNP.
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Aberdeen North, my neighbouring constituency, gone to SNP.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Which Scottish constituency is predicted not to? Orkney and Shetland?

 

[me123]

And Tom Clarke forced into early retirement in Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill. Previously the safest seat in the land, now lost to SNP with a circa 10,000 majority. I never thought I'd see that result. Yet another record swing here of 36%.
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Which Scottish constituency is predicted not to? Orkney and Shetland?

Yes. Knowing Orcadians and Shetlanders, they are unlikely to be influenced by the SNP, and will return their Lib Dem candidate. They didn't really get overly excited about the independence referendum, and returned an overwhelming No from both constituencies (they vote as two constituencies in Scotland, one within the UK). The Highlands and Islands also tend to support a candidate rather than a party, and as long as they like the candidate the Lib Dems should have a relatively safe seat here.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Yes. Knowing Orcadians and Shetlanders are unlikely to be influenced by the SNP, and will return their Lib Dem candidate. The Highlands and Islands tend to support a candidate rather than a party, and as long as they like the candidate the Lib Dems should have a relatively safe seat here.

That would make sense. I'm quite surprised the Western Isles aren't the same, considering their attitude to Holyrood isn't too dissimilar to that of the SNP towards Westminster.

 

[me123]

That would make sense. I'm quite surprised the Western Isles aren't the same, considering their attitude to Holyrood isn't too dissimilar to that of the SNP towards Westminster.

Na h-Eileanan an Iar have long supported their SNP candidate, so it has always been a safe seat for them. I think it's more about the candidate than the SNP per se.

Another record breaking swing of 39% in Glasgow North East.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

Great Grimsby voted Labour. It was UKIP's biggest Labour target and they came third. If Tories get in it will ruin everything for the urban North.

 

[Carlisle]

Which Scottish constituency is predicted not to? Orkney and Shetland?

Maybe Dumfries and Galloway

 

[Searle]

Which Scottish constituency is predicted not to? Orkney and Shetland?

Just confirmed Orkney and Shetland has been held by Lib Dems.

Labour seem to be making a slight comeback here, taking some vital Conservative seats, but I don't think it'll be enough.

 

[me123]

A hilariously frank Labour candidate being interviewed just now, finally saying what we all know.

Jim Murphy cannot continue after presiding over one of the worst electoral disasters in history.

Labour's campaign lacked focus and principles, and was desperate. "We started out chasing yes voters from the SNP, and finished chasing no voters from the Tories".

Anyway, Lib Dems hold Orkney & Shetland, but a very narrow majority for them (817) over the SNP, with a swing of 24% towards the SNP. A lot closer than I thought.

SNP take Glasgow South, comforatbly with a c12,000 majority, and comfortably take Glasgow North West too.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

Orkney & Shetland is Lib Dem.

 

[bb21]

817 majority only. Phew

 

[TheKnightWho]

817 majority for the LDs in Orkney and Shetland. Likely the only seat in Scotland that won't go SNP.

 

[bb21]

Did the Tory MP for Nuneaton utter on TV "the record of the Conservative-Labour coalition"? Muppet.

 

[me123]

Fife North East was interesting, went to SNP with 18523 votes. This was Sir Menzies Campbell's seat, which he held last year with 17763 votes.

Ming has retired, so possibly this influenced the result. But the Lib Dem vote remained markedly steady here (14179), with the SNP surge again due to a collapse in Labour, and perhaps moreso here, an increase in turnout.

SNP take Edinburgh South West, previously held by Alistair Darling (who retired).
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High profile Labour MP Anas Sarwar has lost his seat in Glasgow Central to, guess who, SNP. Glasgow have now taken every single Glasgow seat.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Thanks, it's very simple when someone actually explains it (not like what they're doing on TV )

Unfortunately that explanation may have been very simple, but it was also very wrong

The swing from party A to party B is 0.5 * the increase in B's majority over A.

That sounds strange but it has a good reason. Say in the last election, both A and B got the same number of votes - say 40% each. And suppose 5% of the people who voted A then swap to B. A's vote drops to 35%, B's vote goes up to 45%. So the difference between their votes has changed by 10% - twice the number of voters who swapped. So to get back to the swing, you divide the change in the difference between their votes by 2.

Not sure how clear that was but at 4.10am after being awake for 22 hours, it's not as easy to write logical English as it was - say - 21 hours ago

 

[me123]

Gordon has announced. Alex Salmond returned as MP for Gordon, with a c9,000 majority over the Lib Dems.

Enjoy

 

[bb21]

Yes, 1% swing increases difference by two percentage points.

Simon Hughes a big loss, even if expected.

 

[St Rollox]

Alex Salmond MP returns.
So much for unionist tactical voting.

 

[PermitToTravel]

Unfortunately that explanation may have been very simple, but it was also very wrong

Sorry for believing Wikipedia! Shan't happen again

 

[me123]

SNP take my constituency of Aberdeen South with c20,000 votes, one of which was mine. A comfortable 7,000 majority over Labour. Mostly from Labour and Lib Dem supporters, the Tories held reasonably strong here. Not surprising given how affluent this area is, and just how many people here are purely for the oil.

 

[bb21]

Thank goodness UKIP are kept at bay. About the only positive from tonight.

On that note, why is it that every time a returning officer announces their full name, they have to say "UKIP" again? Is there anyone really so stupid that if the name "UKIP" were not announced they would not realise "UK Independence Party" meant the same thing?

 

[TheKnightWho]

Well personally speaking I'm supporting the Al-Zebabist Nation of Ooog in Thanet South.

 

[me123]

Labour have taken a seat in Edinburgh South, but it was a very close contest with the SNP.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Carswell seemingly in favour of electoral reform. Not entirely surprising.

That failure to translate those 5m votes into seats is less a translation of how my party or the Green party campaigned. Rather, it tells us how dysfunctional our political system has now become. Approximately four times more people voted either for the Greens or for Ukip than the SNP, yet the SNP is expected to get many more times the representation.

What is surprising is that he also mentioned the Greens and considered them a genuine but under-represented political forces alongside UKIP - one of the few pleasant surprises from UKIP that I've seen. Genuinely impressed.

 

[me123]

And Uxbridge elected Boris.