Grand Union approved for Cardiff to London open access by ORR from December 2024

[TravelDream]

About time GWR got some competition from South Wales to London.Fares on this route are far too high.Most in South Wales are not on "London wages"

GWR faces a fair bit of competition on the route.
National Express, Megabus and Flixbus all have frequent service. Timetables are still settling post-Covid though the direction is towards more buses, not fewer.
On the train, there's the via Salisbury/ Warminster fare for £67.30 off-peak return.
Though both of these options are a fair bit slower.

Welsh wages are not dramatically different to anywhere in the country - it's just there are fewer high-paying occupations. In fact the Welsh average is higher than the North East and East Midlands.

I would say that very roughly the coach fares have doubled since Covid with now only every other seat being occupied. So the coach revenue is probably unchanged but I pay more for more breathing space.

All the coach operators have now stopped doing the every other seat thing.
I've taken Megabus (and NX once) from Cardiff - Heathrow a few times this summer and coaches have generally been very busy. I can see why Megabus choose to operate Cardiff - Heathrow - London as passengers are split about 50/50 to the two destinations and it doesn't add *that* much time to the route.

I think you're right about fares being a bit higher than pre-Covid though. Still, you can get a return tomorrow from Cardiff to London in the morning and back in the evening for £20.

 

[Peter Sarf]

...........

All the coach operators have now stopped doing the every other seat thing.
I've taken Megabus (and NX once) from Cardiff - Heathrow a few times this summer and coaches have generally been very busy. I can see why Megabus choose to operate Cardiff - Heathrow - London as passengers are split about 50/50 to the two destinations and it doesn't add *that* much time to the route.

I think you're right about fares being a bit higher than pre-Covid though. Still, you can get a return tomorrow from Cardiff to London in the morning and back in the evening for £20.

I have recently got below £20 return booking only about a week ahead for £17. The every other seat thing I observe is that the coach seems to be roughly half full with a few couples occupying adjacent seats (us) so a few empty pairs.

 

[el_lnrd]

Hello, in rail this week there was an article on Grand Union plans. A lot of opposition to their plans; GWR (for South Wales), XC (Didcot-Reading possible impact), various HS2/Network rail fears (Great to discover that Wales won't benefit but that we have to compound with services reductions).

I am very frustrated because the train offer on South Wales has not evolved a lot since 2019 on GWR, we haven't seen real time gains, we haven't seen any improvements to GWR service to Swansea or further afield (more consistent or quicker), in the 2019 timetable they chose to put the superfasts on Bristol and not South Wales, no extension from the Portsmouth/Penzance services west... While I understand their logic (operating/financially)/dft it feels quite cheeky from such a long-term franchise holder that would have been able to implement some improvements in his 20 year tenure...

GWR nevertheless mentioned the fact that they are developing plans to improve services to the West... Any clue what they hold at the moment ?

 

[CapitalStar378]

Hello, in rail this week there was an article on Grand Union plans. A lot of opposition to their plans; GWR (for South Wales), XC (Didcot-Reading possible impact), various HS2/Network rail fears (Great to discover that Wales won't benefit but that we have to compound with services reductions).

I am very frustrated because the train offer on South Wales has not evolved a lot since 2019 on GWR, we haven't seen real time gains, we haven't seen any improvements to GWR service to Swansea or further afield (more consistent or quicker), in the 2019 timetable they chose to put the superfasts on Bristol and not South Wales, no extension from the Portsmouth/Penzance services west... While I understand their logic (operating/financially)/dft it feels quite cheeky from such a long-term franchise holder that would have been able to implement some improvements in his 20 year tenure...

GWR nevertheless mentioned the fact that they are developing plans to improve services to the West... Any clue what they hold at the moment ?

Rather frustratingly, journey times since IET introduction & electrification seem to have increased again with many CDF-PAD services up to 2 hours from 1h47. Not sure what all the investment in the line was for really. I think some decent competition is essential, especially as GU will be including a buffet and much nicer looking interiors.

 

[Peter Sarf]

What I do not understand about these open access operators is that they are not supposed so compete with existing operators but yet they are supposed to be more competitive .

 

[43066]

What I do not understand about these open access operators is that they are not supposed so compete with existing operators but yet they are supposed to be more competitive .

They aren’t supposed to abstract revenue from TOCs, but tap into new markets. Hence Lumo positioning themselves as a rival to easyJet rather than LNER.

Albeit it’s hard to see how they can be said not to be directly competing with LNER on the London - Edinburgh route. Cardiff to London is obviously a much shorter distance and lacks an air route, so I suppose Grand Union would argue they’re enticing people out of cars and National Express coaches rather than off GWR services. How realistic that is is another question.

 

[Watershed]

What I do not understand about these open access operators is that they are not supposed so compete with existing operators but yet they are supposed to be more competitive .

They are allowed to compete with existing operators. But the point of the 'not primarily abstractive' test applied by the ORR is that they must also grow the market - they can't just exist to take revenue from the incumbent operator(s).

The evidence would suggest that Grand Central, Hull Trains and Lumo have all grown the markets they've entered.

 

[anthony263]

Hello, in rail this week there was an article on Grand Union plans. A lot of opposition to their plans; GWR (for South Wales), XC (Didcot-Reading possible impact), various HS2/Network rail fears (Great to discover that Wales won't benefit but that we have to compound with services reductions).

I am very frustrated because the train offer on South Wales has not evolved a lot since 2019 on GWR, we haven't seen real time gains, we haven't seen any improvements to GWR service to Swansea or further afield (more consistent or quicker), in the 2019 timetable they chose to put the superfasts on Bristol and not South Wales, no extension from the Portsmouth/Penzance services west... While I understand their logic (operating/financially)/dft it feels quite cheeky from such a long-term franchise holder that would have been able to implement some improvements in his 20 year tenure...

GWR nevertheless mentioned the fact that they are developing plans to improve services to the West... Any clue what they hold at the moment ?

Extending the London to swansea trains to Carmarthen every 2 hours according to what grand union mentioned in their response to the dft/gwr. They also stated that the Welsh government abd tfw didn't know about this proposal from gwr

 

[CapitalStar378]

When is the decision from the ORR due on this?

(Edited!)

 

[43102EMR]

When is the decision from the DfT due on this?

Will be the ORR not the DfT.

 

[Trainbike46]

Ah right

Return coach for one person London to Cardiff next Friday after 18:00 returning Following Sunday after 18:00 so popular times for a weekend away (or I see many London workers returning home to South Wales for the weekend).

National Express cheapest £18.80, upto £22.20. Only a few days earlier about £15.
Megabus cheapest £15.96 upto £20.16. Availability on the return has declined in the last few days. Only a few days earlier around £12 iirc.
Flixbus (new to this route) £11.48 upto £19.48. But that is returning earlier than 18:00 - availability gone iirc (maybe never there).

Further ahead for for 25-27/11/2022 return is
National Express £15.80.
Megabus £13.56.

Is there one website that would give you all the coach options, or do you have to check the flixbus/national express/megabus/others where relevant websites separately?

They are allowed to compete with existing operators. But the point of the 'not primarily abstractive' test applied by the ORR is that they must also grow the market - they can't just exist to take revenue from the incumbent operator(s).

The evidence would suggest that Grand Central, Hull Trains and Lumo have all grown the markets they've entered.

Grand-central and Hull trains obviously attracted more customers by offering fast direct connections that didn't previously exist.

For Lumo I was surprised they managed to pass the "not primarily abstractive" test, but it does look like it was justified - LNER now exceeds pre-covid passenger numbers. I'm not sure how Lumo managed it, but it looks like they were able to attract a lot of people of airplanes. Was it just the lower fares? or do they have some genius marketing or booking setup that helps compete with airlines?

 

[Pdf]

It's the lower fares. Same thing happened with Ouigo on the continent. Build a cheap, reliable service of good enough quality and they will come.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Is there one website that would give you all the coach options, or do you have to check the flixbus/national express/megabus/others where relevant websites separately?

.................

I go to each website. But then I never have looked for a compare the market type thing as I want the middle man out of the way.

 

[anthony263]

When is the decision from the ORR due on this?

(Edited!)

November according to what Grand Union have said to the press. I seriously hope its allowed as it be nice to have a alternate to GWR that isn't a car or a coach

 

[Prestige15]

Maybe they (and other future open access companies) should try out on serving places that currently does not have a direct London service rather then compeating with TOC

Skegness, Southport, Barrow/Workington, Burnley, Blackburn, Scarborough, Whitby, Aberystwyth, Pwllheli. just to name a few.

 

[Sly Old Fox]

The ORR has approved these services from 2024.

We’ve approved the introduction of new #train services between London, Cardiff and South West Wales from the end of 2024.

Operated by Grand Union Trains, passengers will benefit from 5 extra daily return services and greater choice of operator.

https://twitter.com/railandroad/status/1598222381851770881?s=46&t=vo_iNpbMihgQDL5u-Pg56Q

 

[43096]

The ORR has approved these services from 2024.

https://twitter.com/railandroad/status/1598222381851770881?s=46&t=vo_iNpbMihgQDL5u-Pg56Q

There’s some HST sets going spare!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The ORR announcement:
There's a link to the full decision.

Regulator approves new Grand Union train service from Carmarthen to London Paddington | Office of Rail and Road

The Office of Rail and Road (ORR) has opened up the Great Western Main Line to competition and enabled a significant increase in rail services between London and South Wales.

www.orr.gov.uk

The rail regulator has approved the introduction of new train services between London, Cardiff and South West Wales from the end of 2024. The services will be operated by a new open access operator, Grand Union Trains, bringing competition to the Great Western route out of Paddington.
Passengers travelling between London, Bristol Parkway, Severn Tunnel Junction, Newport, Cardiff, Gowerton, Llanelli and Carmarthen will benefit from an extra five daily return services and greater choice of operator.

The decision opens up the Great Western Main Line to competition for the first time, with potential benefits in terms of lower fares, improved service quality and innovation for all passengers using the route.
The application, submitted to ORR in June 2022, was disputed by Network Rail due to concerns about capacity on the network. But following careful consideration and analysis, ORR has directed Network Rail to enter into a contract with Grand Union.
Grand Union has committed to significant investment in new trains. As an ‘open access’ train operator, however, it will not get paid subsidies from public funds, unlike current operators along the route.

ORR supports new open access where it delivers competition for the benefit of passengers. In making this decision, the regulator has weighed this up against the impact on Government funds and effect on other users of the railway, both passengers and freight customers.

Presumably this means another bi-mode AT300 order for Hitachi.

 

[Snow1964]

A logical outcome, GWR opted not to restore its Bristol superfasts when the application went in, with the paths not being used, wasn’t any real justification to claim lack of track capacity.

As for revenue extraction, South west Wales to London wasn’t being served by through trains, so wasn’t much of an argument to protect what wasn’t wanted by the other operators.

Look forward to seeing new bi-modes (and didn’t they say they would be fitted with compartments in First class), wonder if they will be solid walls, or more like a laminated glass. My money is on a variation of class 805 or 807

 

[Kite159]

A logical outcome, GWR opted not to restore its Bristol superfasts when the application went in, with the paths not being used, wasn’t any real justification to claim lack of track capacity.

As for revenue extraction, South west Wales to London wasn’t being served by through trains, so wasn’t much of an argument to protect what wasn’t wanted by the other operators.

Look forward to seeing new bi-modes (and didn’t they say they would be fitted with compartments in First class), wonder if they will be solid walls, or more like a laminated glass. My money is on a variation of class 805 or 807

Don't those spare paths disappear from May when the Didcot stoppers switch to using the mains to Slough leaving the relief lines solely for Lizzy?

I can't help thinking 2 years won't be long enough to order brand new trains and get them built/into service.

 

[James90012]

Agree. The contracted operators are stuck in stasis, or even decline, but markets like these are there for the taking. I think this is a good outcome and eventually the market for both operators will be larger as a result.

 

[Sly Old Fox]

A logical outcome, GWR opted not to restore its Bristol superfasts when the application went in, with the paths not being used, wasn’t any real justification to claim lack of track capacity.

As for revenue extraction, South west Wales to London wasn’t being served by through trains, so wasn’t much of an argument to protect what wasn’t wanted by the other operators.

Look forward to seeing new bi-modes (and didn’t they say they would be fitted with compartments in First class), wonder if they will be solid walls, or more like a laminated glass. My money is on a variation of class 805 or 807

Or rather, GWR weren’t allowed to restore the super fast services, and the paths are supposed to be disappearing from May anyway with slower trains using the mains.

I’m sure they will make money but at what cost to the taxpayer funded GWR? It’s not like there is air share from Cardiff/Swansea to London to win, unlike Lumo from Edinburgh.

 

[Snow1964]

Don't those spare paths disappear from May when the Didcot stoppers switch to using the mains to Slough leaving the relief lines solely for Lizzy?

Yes, but I can’t see how ORR cannot really defend an applicants future aspirations, against something not currently happening but planned for future date. If they did anyone could announce dozens of future events as a blocking tactic, then cancel them before they happen after new co application is rejected. If the application was rejected there is still 6 months to cancel those Didcot trains (and let’s be honest many operators have been cancelling things with lot less than 6 months notice

I can't help thinking 2 years won't be long enough to order brand new trains and get them built/into service.

possibly will short term hire something in meantime, could be a 222 Meridian to name just one type that will become available, and no subsequent operator has yet been announced.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

I’m not sure you can call five trains a “significant increase” in trains to Cardiff, but good news that GWR will have some competition anyway, unless they’re all words like GC were with Blackpool.

 

[el_lnrd]

Or rather, GWR weren’t allowed to restore the super fast services, and the paths are supposed to be disappearing from May anyway with slower trains using the mains.

I’m sure they will make money but at what cost to the taxpayer funded GWR? It’s not like there is air share from Cardiff/Swansea to London to win, unlike Lumo from Edinburgh.

Maybe even easier in that case is the M4 trafic share to win.

I don't know for how long the West Wales' GWR service pattern has been the same, but 2011 ATW seems to show a very similar pattern to today (albeit with 15 mins less travel time). Surely there is scope for development given the number of people on the route and the M4 trafic. With grand union going ahead we can hope for a reaction from gwr and dft on confort or serving pattern...

Timetable 3: West Wales, Swansea, Maesteg and Gloucester to Cardiff

This timetable shows the complete service of trains on the routes from Pembroke Dock, Milford Haven and Fishguard Harbour to Swansea (with connections to Cardiff Central, Bristol Temple Meads and London Paddington), Swansea to Cardiff Central, Maesteg to Cardiff and Gloucester local services and...

issuu.com

 

[A S Leib]

Maybe they (and other future open access companies) should try out on serving places that currently does not have a direct London service rather then compeating with TOC

Skegness, Southport, Barrow/Workington, Burnley, Blackburn, Scarborough, Whitby, Aberystwyth, Pwllheli. just to name a few.

I wonder how much of Grand Central and Hull Train's London traffic comes from Grantham, Newark, Retford, Doncaster, York and Northallerton; having through services would be nice but I suspect that a substantial number would end up mostly being used as an extra Liverpool / Preston / York train (and can the Cambrian Coast, Cumbria Coast and Esk Valley lines handle or justify a second train per hour - or 1 tph, in the latter case - and can trains from London get to Southport without using Piccadilly platforms 13 / 14 or a massive diversion through Victoria, assuming using Merseyrail lines is undesirable?).

 

[Envoy]

This is great news - especially for Carmarthenshire where GWR basically could not be bothered to operate west of Swansea (apart form 1 London train east and 1 west per day.) Also good news that Felindre will be a calling point on the Swansea District Line with a P&R along with Cardiff East Parkway and Severn Tunnel Junction. (It would have been good if a new station could be built on the SDL at Pontarddulais as the Heart of Wales trains could have dropped off passengers from Llandovery, Llandeilo, Ammanford etc. and these could transfer to/from the Grand Union express services. Buses could have brought people from Cross Hands and other nearby villages).

Let's hope that they fit the Hitachi trains with better seats than GWR did.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

or 1 tph, in the latter case - and can trains from London get to Southport without using Piccadilly platforms 13 / 14 or a massive diversion through Victoria, assuming using Merseyrail lines is undesirable?).

You can reach Southport from the WCML by routing into Wigan Wallgate over the (very slow) connection south of Wigan NW.
Northern run that way to reach Springs Branch depot.

 

[cactustwirly]

Or rather, GWR weren’t allowed to restore the super fast services, and the paths are supposed to be disappearing from May anyway with slower trains using the mains.

I’m sure they will make money but at what cost to the taxpayer funded GWR? It’s not like there is air share from Cardiff/Swansea to London to win, unlike Lumo from Edinburgh.

Does anyone know what paths Grand Union will be using?
I was under the impression they were using the Superfast paths that GWR were taking from May for the Didcot Semi-fasts

 

[Watershed]

I’m not sure you can call five trains a “significant increase” in trains to Cardiff, but good news that GWR will have some competition anyway, unless they’re all words like GC were with Blackpool.

GC were hardly 'all words' with Blackpool. They very nearly launched; the operation was pulled at the 11th hour due to financial concerns. With GC running a full pre-Covid timetable on the ECML and this application proceeding on the GWML, I wonder whether there is perhaps still the potential for them to run on the WCML after all. Though I always have reservations about the impact of OAOs on passengers (particularly during disruption), it would be good for Avanti to face some competition in order to force them to reduce some of their fares.