Great Western Electrification Progress

[paul1609]

Electrification work has started and subsequently been cancelled no less than three times on the Marshlink Line. The only benefit we have is Hastings to Ore and Rye Station footbridge. The electrical equipment for the latest scheme was subsequently used in the Bournemouth Electrification

 

[HSTEd]

Pretty sure Hastings to Ore was done because there were no carriage sidings in Hastings and no room to provide them....

 

[SkinnyDave]

I'm happy to put a charity bet on it.. as mentioned above

Bear in mind I'm not willing it not to happen I think it will be an almighty row and will degrade the whole project if it doesn't take place!

If as expected this does go way over budget and is heavily delayed it does not give me confidence on HS2 as I've learned in railway what they say it will cost treble it and then you will be closer to the truth

 

[HSTEd]

Good job they already trebled the HS2 budget then isn't it?

 

[NotATrainspott]

I'm happy to put a charity bet on it.. as mentioned above

Bear in mind I'm not willing it not to happen I think it will be an almighty row and will degrade the whole project if it doesn't take place!

If as expected this does go way over budget and is heavily delayed it does not give me confidence on HS2 as I've learned in railway what they say it will cost treble it and then you will be closer to the truth

The HS2 budget already includes enormous amounts of contingency funding and from a technical perspective the vast majority of the scheme is no more challenging (if not easier) than Crossrail, which is projected to come in on budget. Upgrades to existing lines are significantly more likely to go overbudget or be delayed because they have to work around what's happening on the day-to-day railway. If anything, the experience of the GWML would have changed the minds of a government in a parallel universe to return to the idea of building HS2 after it may have originally scrapped it.

The current plans for electrification must continue, even if they are delayed by a few years, because they are what all other plans on the railway are based around. If you were to cancel it, you would waste even more time as the rail industry and government had to scramble to come up with alternative solutions which would be technically inferior.

 

[SkinnyDave]

The HS2 budget already includes enormous amounts of contingency funding and from a technical perspective the vast majority of the scheme is no more challenging (if not easier) than Crossrail, which is projected to come in on budget. Upgrades to existing lines are significantly more likely to go overbudget or be delayed because they have to work around what's happening on the day-to-day railway. If anything, the experience of the GWML would have changed the minds of a government in a parallel universe to return to the idea of building HS2 after it may have originally scrapped it.

The current plans for electrification must continue, even if they are delayed by a few years, because they are what all other plans on the railway are based around. If you were to cancel it, you would waste even more time as the rail industry and government had to scramble to come up with alternative solutions which would be technically inferior.

I'll stick with my original thoughts on HS2 farce thanks there is another thread for those debates..

There will be some tough negotiating if the wires are to continue to Swansea and even Cardiff if it continues the way it is at the moment

 

[76020]

And that I rather agree with. Can we have our Adelantes back on the GWML where they belong as well?

Little progress to report from last nights late night trip from Padd to Reading - indeed the most exciting thing was seeing a Warship stabled on Old Oak Common again!

Fast lines from Westbourne Park to Reading closed. Little work going on in a few places, Balfour Beatty were out with a handful of RRVs and 2 DBS 66s topping and tailing the ex Freightliner flats with a stack of piles on. So some progress there.

On my journey from London to Cardiff last Friday I noticed that there are plenty of plies installed between Reading and Didcot with around 40 masts erected as well, also there is around twentyish piles installed between Didcot and Swindon, however the Balfour Beatty Boys are lagging behind on their bit which is east off Maidenhead, but I could only see the up line, north side.

On another topic does anybody know when Cardiff Station area will be resignalled as part of the South Wales resignalling? The current status is that more engineering work between Newport and Cardiff is scheduled for Sept/Oct, but this will only go as far as just east of Cardiff I think, at present there is new point work installed on the relief lines only.

 

[CdBrux]

Does anyone know why the project is so much overbudget?

 

[paul1609]

Pretty sure Hastings to Ore was done because there were no carriage sidings in Hastings and no room to provide them....

That is true but the electrification was due to continue to Ashford and was on this occasion cancelled because of WW2.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Good job they already trebled the HS2 budget then isn't it?

Im just waiting when they finally realise how expensive HS2 is to run they follow the precedent set in Kent and declare that there is a need for an Integrated North Franchise with local fares throughout the North hiked at 3.5% plus inflation per year to pay for the HS line.

 

[HSTEd]

.... but it will be cheaper to run than the existing intercity franchise services - and this is miles off topic.

 

[HowardGWR]

There is a report about closing the road at Stratton Green, Swindon, to renew the bridge from November - for 20 weeks! I do hope they make the replacement wide enough for four tracks. One side wall of it looks like it could be original (use Street View) and the western side is modern brick, so it looks as though it was widened for road traffic sometime past.

 

[59CosG95]

Does anyone know why the project is so much overbudget?

I believe that one of the reasons was due to the electrification teams encountering several endangered species en route. Newts, bats and dormice have all been found to be living near the line, and appropriate steps had to be taken to safely remove them.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

But you are now witnessing the death of the rolling electrification programme, no scheme that is not committed will be put forward.

If that happens Network Rail will have shot itself in the foot.
They had/still have an open door to wire as many routes as fast as possible until the government loses interest or confidence in NR to deliver.
I also remember the initial NR GW route upgrade announcements, which were of the "this time, it won't be like WCRM" sort.

 

[jimm]

We're all doomed....

Or not...

Yes, the timetable for wiring is now very tight indeed, but the factory train is now working well, I gather, from people in the know.

Bridge replacement west of Didcot is one of the areas where costs have grown, eg agreeing to put in a temporary bridge for the A338 north of Wantage, which - stupidly, given the length of any alternative routes - was not in the original plan but after a storm of protest Network Rail backed down.

 

[kylemore]

We're all doomed....

Or not...

Yes, the timetable for wiring is now very tight indeed, but the factory train is now working well, I gather, from people in the know.

Bridge replacement west of Didcot is one of the areas where costs have grown, eg agreeing to put in a temporary bridge for the A338 north of Wantage, which - stupidly, given the length of any alternative routes - was not in the original plan but after a storm of protest Network Rail backed down.

Who remembers all the "problems" and "controversies" now with previous schemes such as HS1 as you sip your nice wee glass of french red at 180mph in Kent?

The sames happening with the new Borders line with negative hype galore - the latest being that the odd steam special is going to cause chaos and mayhem "we're all doomed" alas! alack! etc etc

I suppose "Doomsaying" is just more fun!

 

[HSTEd]

I remember that its still almost empty and all those expensive freight loops turned out to be completely pointless, and that the low top speed of the ordered commuter stock means we can't fit many more trains on it.......

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Who remembers all the "problems" and "controversies" now with previous schemes such as HS1 as you sip your nice wee glass of french red at 180mph in Kent?

The sames happening with the new Borders line with negative hype galore - the latest being that the odd steam special is going to cause chaos and mayhem "we're all doomed" alas! alack! etc etc

I suppose "Doomsaying" is just more fun!

I hope so .

 

[The Planner]

If that happens Network Rail will have shot itself in the foot.
They had/still have an open door to wire as many routes as fast as possible until the government loses interest or confidence in NR to deliver.
I also remember the initial NR GW route upgrade announcements, which were of the "this time, it won't be like WCRM" sort.

Judging by the work being done on electrification plans for CP6 etc it is far from dead.

 

[Olaf]

Is there an official statement regarding the alleged delays and budget over-shoot?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Is there an official statement regarding the alleged delays and budget over-shoot?

There's an article on this by Roger Ford in September's Modern Railways: "Electrification Shocker", p28.

Basically:
- installation costs of new design Series 1 (GW) and Series 2 (elsewhere) are higher than BR Mk3b, instead of being lower as expected
- NR did not include upgrading the wiring from Paddington to Airport Jn for 125mph running (nor St Pancras to Bedford in the MML costs)
- there are doubts as to the capability of the HOPS system and its suitability over some of the GW route
- much of the GW scheme has not reached GRIP 3 and the design and costs are still uncertain
- grid connections (down to the power companies) are coming in much more costly than expected

ORR is reviewing each tranche of NR spend as it firms up.
The belief is that the overrun (believed to be from £1b to £1.5b) is such that descoping or delay is likely (on all CP5 schemes).
The CP5 plans and progress updates do have a warning that all electrification milestones are subject to confirmation.

Roger observes that Basingstoke-Southampton DC-AC conversion might be an early casualty.

 

[Manchester77]

To add to that he also says it's likely schemes such as the Valley Line electrification project may get pushed into CP6

 

[swtandgw]

There's an article on this by Roger Ford in September's Modern Railways: "Electrification Shocker", p28.

Basically:
- installation costs of new design Series 1 (GW) and Series 2 (elsewhere) are higher than BR Mk3b, instead of being lower as expected
- NR did not include upgrading the wiring from Paddington to Airport Jn for 125mph running (nor St Pancras to Bedford in the MML costs)
- there are doubts as to the capability of the HOPS system and its suitability over some of the GW route
- much of the GW scheme has not reached GRIP 3 and the design and costs are still uncertain
- grid connections (down to the power companies) are coming in much more costly than expected

ORR is reviewing each tranche of NR spend as it firms up.
The belief is that the overrun (believed to be from £1b to £1.5b) is such that descoping or delay is likely (on all CP5 schemes).
The CP5 plans and progress updates do have a warning that all electrification milestones are subject to confirmation.

Roger observes that Basingstoke-Southampton DC-AC conversion might be an early casualty.

That's a shame. Surely NR could've gone for a more tried and tested OHLE system rather than come up with a new system that's hardly had any pantographs touch it at present?

As for the DC-AC conversion, that's still going to be needed in the future, with the oldest substations needing replacement and the cost of AC conversion being cheaper than renewing DC equipment altogether. If the plans get eliminated, we're going to end up with polluting diesels continuing on the route and the Electric Spine becoming meaningless.

 

[59CosG95]

As for the DC-AC conversion, that's still going to be needed in the future, with the oldest substations needing replacement and the cost of AC conversion being cheaper than renewing DC equipment altogether. If the plans get eliminated, we're going to end up with polluting diesels continuing on the route and the Electric Spine becoming meaningless.

Agreed. Maybe the gov't'll see sense sooner or later and shove it up the priority list...

 

[WatcherZero]

To add to that he also says it's likely schemes such as the Valley Line electrification project may get pushed into CP6

Ive never heard a suggested date earlier than 2019 and 2020 for the work to begin anyway, always assumed it was a CP6 project

 

[swt_passenger]

Ive never heard a suggested date earlier than 2019 and 2020 for the work to begin anyway, always assumed it was a CP6 project

That's not how it reads in the latest version of the CP5 enhancements plan, it (and the original March version) have the start of advance (gauge clearance) works this September, then Grip 6 start in Feb 2017 for completion by December 2019, so it overlaps into CP6 but definitely starts earlier.

(With the caveat that dates are indicative, but then so are nearly all dates in the whole document...)

 

[Chris125]

That's a shame. Surely NR could've gone for a more tried and tested OHLE system rather than come up with a new system that's hardly had any pantographs touch it at present?

I doubt there is a tried and tested system designed with our loading gauge in mind and for erection by HOPS, which allows 140mph with multiple pantographs and is much more resilient to failure than that used on the ECML.

Chris

 

[swt_passenger]

That's a shame. Surely NR could've gone for a more tried and tested OHLE system rather than come up with a new system that's hardly had any pantographs touch it at present?

I thought the 'new system' (NR series 1) is only new to NR as it is supposedly based on existing Furrer and Frey technology already in widespread use on the continent, and has also been thoroughly tested at Old Dalby using Javelin trains; as reported in the rail press, e.g. here:

Series 1 is Network Rail’s new OLE system for higher speeds (up to 140mph), which will first be deployed on the Great Western Electrification Programme; it has been developed by Furrer+Frey. Eventually Series 1 will be merged with Series 2 – Network Rail’s new system for lower speed routes – to create the new UK Master Series Index. This will be the future overall OLE system to be deployed on all new electrification programmes.
Old Dalby was developed with a colossal amount of collaboration; Furrer+Frey was able to use Old Dalby as a case study in its recent BS 11000 accreditation in collaboration.

Tests included the most onerous combinations for an OLE system to demonstrate its reliance – this included testing in degraded states and very low bridges next to crossovers at high speed. The organisations’ teams outside the Great Western Electrification Programme included Southeastern and Hitachi, who provided the ‘Katherine Grainger’ (a Javelin train), as well as their maintenance team and drivers.

http://www.railtechnologymagazine.c...ful-completion-of-series-1-ole-system-testing

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I doubt if the problems are anything to do with the design of Series 1 or 2, though the autotransformer system is additional to what BR would have installed.
It's more likely to be the deployment and productivity of the construction teams and kit.
An unbelievable number of orange suits has been needed on the NW scheme, which included specialist concrete foundations over Chat Moss and approaching Manchester Victoria.
The channel tunnel project, and more recently Crossrail, published frequent progress reports (positions of the TBMs) so that everybody could see what progress was being made during the project's lifetime.
It would be good if Network Rail did the same for its electrification programme.
It's that important to the future of the railway.
Currently it is all just too quiet on the GW front!

 

[WatcherZero]

Having read the article it says in part its because they were unintentionally not comparing like for like, comparing BR Mk3 erected by road-rail plant with new series erected by HOPS and lacked sufficent practical experience of large scale electrification for the last 15 years. Retraining, trial and error and breaking in HOPS probably had something to do with it I imagine as well.

Though to be honest the gist of the article seems to be rather not that its gone overbudget but that the Government rushed them into including it when they hadnt had time to fully cost it out and so underestimated the cost at the start, they had to provide ORR 'guestimates' that would be refined later after the Control Period budgeting process.


Also remember NR didnt want to do full MML in CP5, they wanted to the last stage in CP6 but ORR forced them to include it in CP5.

 

[HowardGWR]

If the South Wales section could only be completed by cancelling the proposed appalling M4 additional southern bypass of Newport, I would have a big smile. The prof's report (see another thread) made clear this could be achieved just as effectively and much cheaper by upgrading the existing southern bypass with GSJs and extending it eastwards past the redundant steelworks site. The valleys electrification could be included to boot.