There's no way to know; First have lost very successful franchises before, while they've hung on the others where logic suggests they'd lose them.
I'd guess that they are favorites, for two reasons:
1. First are the kind of company that DaFT likes; little fuss and scandal, and where there is a fuss, make the right noises. Plus (of course) financially they deliver the goods.
2. There's no obvious rival; sure there'll be stiff competition on the day, but GWR is a unique mix of Intercity, interurban and rural; not quite commuter country (Govia), not quite Virgin country, or even Stagecoach. Plus there's the electrification going on.
While it's (very) early days to be guessing, I'd go for (1) First, (2) Abellio, (3) NatEx
But there could be wildcards; RATP, SNCF ... and you can never rule out DB Arriva, these days.
Sadly so...And of course First could be running, and improving the Eastern Anglian mainline now if the GB Railways takeover had gone to plan* - that and First's highly sucessfull and award winning Great Eastern franchises of course went over to NX's 'ONE' when the franchise was relet, and now look at the state that's in - hardly describeable as a 'franchise'...
Though as for the Franchises first have lost, apart from First Great Eastern / Anglia Railways, the only other one i can recall is that of First North Western - so really, only 2 possibly 3 franchises lost by First so far, compared to that of the shadow of its former self NX - Wessex Trains (Merged),
Wales & Borders (lost and merged into ATW),
Central (Split between London Midland & EMT)
Midland Mainline (Lost to Stagecoach),
Scotrail (Lost to First),
WAGN (Split into WA - 'ONE' & WA into First Capitol Connect - again, lost the bid for)
Silverlink (North London is now London Overground, Sliverlink County now London Midland),
Then there's the shambolic short running of East Coast (Now state owned Directly Operated Railways) - the franchise even they knew they couldnt afford, and now at last, East Anglia breaks free from the NX Shackles (Soon to of course, be Abellio East Anglia)...Leaving NX With only one, rather isolated franchise in the form of not so bad C2C...
As for the other potential bidders:
Stagecoach - Bit of an outside chance, but arnt afraid to upset the applecart within the Dft. Simular Franchise operation to EMT with the mix of Intercity, interurban and rural...
DB / Arriva - Perfomance wise, a pretty mixed bag - ATW & AXC, But i just don't think they really have the 'ompf' to take on such a mighty mixed franchise...And Despite Arriva's operations portfolio now unfortunatly including Chiltern, even Chiltern themselves don't seem to be what they used to be...
Govia - Potentially too much for them?
The outside shots could, as you say be Abellio & SNCF - But the pair of them would need to prove that they could sucessfully run a fairly demanding UK Franchise...
We shall see!
*For those of you not so in the know, GB Railways owned and operated Anglia Railways, Hull Trains and GB Railfreight before First Groups purchase in 2004.
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You must be joking! When I visit my family in Dawlish I am appalled by the risible local FGW service. They use clapped out rolling stock imported from the north west (which initially had the original destination indicators, "Rochdale" means nothing to people in Devon), and spruced up upholstery doesn't count for much when passengers are squeezed into a two car train that really should be four! FGW has failed miserably in the west country and does not deserve a second chance.
Ah, but whose fault was both the condition of the stock when it first arrived? And whose fault was it requiring the use of the 142s on the devon metro?
Answers A - Northern, And B - The Dft - Don't forget that almost as soon as the franchise started, FGW had to put up with a fairly substantial fleet reduction because of the actions of our wonderfull Dft, who ultimatly decided that FGW didn't need 12 150s (Exeter based), 4 153s (Exeter Based) and 12 or more 158s (Then exeter based too!)...With really, the only increases in the fleet over the past few years into FGWs West Fleet has been:
1x 153 From ATW 2007
12x Class 142 {Now reduced to 7} On loan from Northern Rail via Dft to replace some of the lost fleet. (Includes several class 142s formerally stored by Northern at Blackpool) - Now under replacement 2 at a time by ex LM Class 150s
2x 150/1 From London Overground 2008
6x 150/1 From London Overground 2010
2x 153 From London Midland 2011
9x 150/1 From London Midland 2011 - Both Ex LM Fleets Delayed by the late delivery of the Class 172 Fleets to London Midland,
So to be fair, whilst the 142s may or may not be ideal, they where hardly FGWs choice - And at least you have a half hourly service to Dawlish! Don't forget too, that FGW Has 'Refreshed' the 142s out of their own money just to try to bring the things up to some level of standards!
Afterall, if you want spruced up upholstery...Try This, Oh look, It's Northern Rail again - Whats changed from FNW, The seat covers!...
http://www.gbrailwayworld.co.uk/Tra...-Interiors/16769687_w7zVfv#1412339279_z374sGq
Now this is worth a read!
http://www.northernrailways.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=780
The 'refreshed' interior of 142029
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dxr7rYnBD68
But please bear in mind, that the 142 Fleet was only brought into FGWs fleet with very little choice whatsover, and that they are temporary! And, out of their own pocket, FGWs mods have included: Interior deep clean, Full Interior panels repainted, Repainted doors / door upgrades and Yes, repaded & re-upholsted seat covers!
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You seem a little hysteric, or even familiar with the rail infrastructure.
Rolling stock is in finite supply and although I'm not FGW biggest fans, they've made the best of a uphill job, and getting much better...than back in the day.
Me? Possibly because im tired, possibly because i would have been working for them had things worked out, partly because im friends with a fair few FGW staff, and partly because, i believe that really, they are vastly becoming one of the few credible TOCs left - Management has turned the franchise Up, Whereas for example, the likes of Arriva / NX seem to be bringing franchises down...
But also, because of the amount of energy, Enterprising nature that unlike some TOCs, FGW shows strongly in - the potential use of the 150/0s on Reading - Basing to bolster up 165s for the thames valley being an example!