GwR HSTs to be stood down

[HamworthyGoods]

Hitachi don’t do anything other than stabling and standard overnight maintenance on non-Hitachi fleets, and even then only at two of their depots (Craigentinny and Ashford). All non-Hitachi fleets based at Hitachi depots have either been reallocated elsewhere (91+Mark 4s and XC HSTs) or withdrawn (LNER HSTs) quite quickly after the depot takeover.

If Hitachi take on Laira we can expect anything non-Hitachi apart from possibly the 08s to be banished from the site for anything other than overnight stabling in a relatively short timeframe.

The interpretation from the statement given by GWR’s Engineering Director is not passing Laira to Hitachi but bringing the 802 (not the 800) maintenance in house with GWR at Laira.

 

[Clarence Yard]

A certain amount of 802 maintenance is already done at Laira - they do the majority of the 36 day exams there now. I suspect they will exclusively be done there from next year with more work arising work done there as well but with Stoke Gifford and North Pole still doing the trickier stuff that needs the specialist kit at those locations.

I am hearing different figures for the DfT TOC rail budget for next year than the DEL ones quoted above. Certainly, there are severe savings being demanded of all TOCs. Some have gone back to the DfT with “temporary” line/station closure proposals.

 

[Kilopylae]

What do you expect. Great Western Railway is operated by First Group (despite not having 'First' in their title any more). And everyone knows how good First Group are when it comes to operating Train Franchises (or not operating as the case may be!)

This is more or less a government decision — realistically, what do you want First Group to do about it?

 

[HamworthyGoods]

What do you expect. Great Western Railway is operated by First Group (despite not having 'First' in their title any more). And everyone knows how good First Group are when it comes to operating Train Franchises (or not operating as the case may be!)

I’m not quite sure what you are insinuating here? This is a DfT Budget Cut. Same as GTR were instructed to remove the 46 x cl455 units from traffic in May and that had nothing to do with FG.

 

[stuu]

So if the locals are being cut back to Taunton, that would surely mean the plan for stations at Cullompton and Wellington is dead as well? Although building new stations with no trains wouldn't surprise me very much

 

[HamworthyGoods]

So if the locals are being cut back to Taunton, that would surely mean the plan for stations at Cullompton and Wellington is dead as well? Although building new stations with no trains wouldn't surprise me very much

Cutting the locals back to Taunton is only speculation not fact.

 

[hexagon789]

What happens to the timetable is speculation, only the withdrawal of HSTs has been announced. That said, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if DafT has ideas like those suggested.

It has been mentioned internally according to several GWR staff. That was my main source, then repeated in a number of postings across other forums.

This is the piece I saw:

CML will still be half hourly during peak times, but many trains will be taken out of the time table to give a base hourly frequency. Plymouth to Exeter stoppers set to be peak only with Londons picking up a couple more Ivybridge calls. Through trains axed except a few early morning and late evening trains for stock transfers. Taunton - Cardiffs self contained but otherwise will be largely unchanged.

 

[FOH]

Is this similar to what we've seen on southern? As in retire a fleet, replace it with nothing and sweat the assets you're left with?

 

[HamworthyGoods]

Is this similar to what we've seen on southern? As in retire a fleet, replace it with nothing and sweat the assets you're left with?

Yes, spot on and what we are likely to see become a pattern across the GB Rail Network.

 

[irish_rail]

It's fun when GWR run 10 to Penzance (which happens rarely luckily) as the back five fit in almost no station and so you become marooned. Even the 9's are a nightmare as they don't fit in hardly any (1 I think) stations with all coaches. The Cardiff-Exeter trains seem weel loads between Exeter and Bristol and help relieve the overcrowding on XC.

And don't forget 10 car sets only fit two platforms at Penzance so can be tricky to platform when there is disruption. 10 cars in Cornwall are definitely not liked by staff due to the inevitable person trapped in the rear 5 who then pulls the passcomm. At least on the 9s they fit in most platforms at PZ and passengers cannot board "the wrong half of the train". Time will tell if we get all 9s or (my fear) all 10s.

Rail service changes are pretty insignificant when it comes to voting intentions in a general election. The economy and the NHS are far bigger factors.

This is partly true but cutting local rail services adds to a general feeling of neglect in a community / city / County and subliminally at least helps to influence voting decisions.

 

[FGW_DID]

Re: the 387 situation - it would be 3x 387s transferring but losing 4 working diagrams. 387172 / 173 & 174 were supposed to be the three leaving but this seems to have been knocked on the head (for now??)

 

[Xavi]

I am hearing different figures for the DfT TOC rail budget for next year than the DEL ones quoted above.

Attached are the DfT figures confirmed in the Autumn Statement. The funds available for Support for Passenger Rail Services and Network Rail (net) are not as unrealistic as some have been suggesting, particularly when compared to 2019.

IMO DfT has chosen to cut costs (or rather instruct TOCs to) when moderate revenue growth over the 2022-23 forecast through (immediate) fares reform and ongoing recovery of passenger numbers (continuing the trend seen through 2022) is a realistic alternative.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

A certain amount of 802 maintenance is already done at Laira - they do the majority of the 36 day exams there now. I suspect they will exclusively be done there from next year with more work arising work done there as well but with Stoke Gifford and North Pole still doing the trickier stuff that needs the specialist kit at those locations.

I am hearing different figures for the DfT TOC rail budget for next year than the DEL ones quoted above. Certainly, there are severe savings being demanded of all TOCs. Some have gone back to the DfT with “temporary” line/station closure proposals.

This whole process is going to be a mess. The DfT are going to demand the severe cost savings, TOC's are going to go to them with the savings, potential temporary line/station closure proposals. DfT will be like this is awful but only way to save money. These proposals will be announced, a huge amount of political unrest and uproar will occur, DfT and politicians will be like ahhh this can't happen, suddenly money will be found to reverse some of the proposals about 2 months before the timetable runs, timetable planners have to redo a timetable again, everyone is annoyed and worse off and the process will continue when the next business plan cycle occurs, when even more money is demanded to be saved and so forth.

 

[jw]

What happened to the IETs previously used for the Bristol fast services via Bristol Parkway? Would these units be available to substitute at least some of the HSTs?

 

[JonathanH]

What happened to the IETs previously used for the Bristol fast services via Bristol Parkway? Would these units be available to substitute at least some of the HSTs?

It isn't quite as simple as that. GWR's train fleet was specified on the basis of 5-car operation in Cornwall. However, 9-car units are doing a lot of those workings now so that requires more units than originally allocated, if pairs of 5s are having to cover for previously 9-car workings elsewhere. It has been said that these are released by Bedwyn and Bristol workings no longer running. It does seem that some 5-car units can substitute for some HST workings but not all.

 

[Clarence Yard]

Yes, that IET substitution is being started in December, as the first stage. The continuing lack of long distance commuters on the South Wales and Bristol routes is leading to a redistribution of the fleet.

This also gives GWR the opportunity to work more 9 and 10 car units right into Cornwall. The re-instatement of the sidings at Ponsandane will lead to more 9 car starters off Long Rock.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Attached are the DfT figures confirmed in the Autumn Statement. The funds available for Support for Passenger Rail Services and Network Rail (net) are not as unrealistic as some have been suggesting, particularly when compared to 2019.

IMO DfT has chosen to cut costs (or rather instruct TOCs to) when moderate revenue growth over the 2022-23 forecast through (immediate) fares reform and ongoing recovery of passenger numbers (continuing the trend seen through 2022) is a realistic alternative.

860m less in 22/23 though and we already know from ORR data that overall revenue was running at 70% pre covid which equates to c3B less revenue although when they update data next month the annual run rate will probably have improved. However, consensus from companies is wfh has plateaued at current levels and limited attempts by businesses to drive this higher along with significantly less business travel and thats before a recession.

So DfT have to divi up the 860m although will be less with extra revenue offset so GWR, like all TOCs, would have been told you need to cut costs give us some options. The Castles are an easy target two stonking gas guzzling engines especially and if they are going to need more heavy overhauls only more cost. Not great but UK isn't short of trains that could be cascaded if only the operators would get the new ones into service and this is probably some short term pain until the likes of 175s, Voyagers, Meridians become available and other TfW stock.

 

[yorkie]

Just a gentle reminder this is an updates thread, not for posts of a speculative nature please.

We welcome posts of a speculative nature, but please do ensure these are posted in the relevant forum section (you are welcome to link to any such thread from here).

Thanks

 

[Bald Rick]

ongoing recovery of passenger numbers (continuing the trend seen through 2022) is a realistic alternative.

Continuing the trend of the last 6 months isn’t good news … it has been pretty flat…

This proposal has been on the cards for a while. Very expensive trains. Expect more of similar elsewhere.

 

[LowLevel]

Continuing the trend of the last 6 months isn’t good news … it has been pretty flat…

This proposal has been on the cards for a while. Very expensive trains. Expect more of similar elsewhere.

Certainly I've heard rumours of the withdrawal of trains that up until recently were expected to be around for years.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Certainly I've heard rumours of the withdrawal of trains that up until recently were expected to be around for years.

Such as what?

 

[LowLevel]

Such as what?

That I can't really say - not wanting to be a tease but it's probably commercially sensitive! Not sure if it is happening or not.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

That I can't really say - not wanting to be a tease but it's probably commercially sensitive! Not sure if it is happening or not.

Yes, somewhat annoying to hint that several rolling stock are on their way out and then not specify which Probably better to have not said anything at all!
That said, I understand where you're coming from.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If they're the ones I think they are (the unreliable tat that is Class 180), then good, they're junk. The sooner scrapped the better.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

If they're the ones I think they are (the unreliable tat that is Class 180), then good, they're junk. The sooner scrapped the better.

EMR have reportedly decided to keep theirs on long-term, and Grand Central have no replacements.
I personally see CrossCountry HSTs and Chiltern Silver Sets on borrowed time, LNER IC225s would make sense but I'm not sure, and I feel as though ScotRail could be made to do without their HSTs and stretch the DMUs as much as possible, perhaps with a reduced Fife Circle and Glasgow South Western service.

Don't want to get too speculative though, although if we're subject to a guessing game then it's inevitable

 

[83G/84D]

Yes, that IET substitution is being started in December, as the first stage. The continuing lack of long distance commuters on the South Wales and Bristol routes is leading to a redistribution of the fleet.

This also gives GWR the opportunity to work more 9 and 10 car units right into Cornwall. The re-instatement of the sidings at Ponsandane will lead to more 9 car starters off Long Rock.

As I understand if all goes to plan the Ponsandane sidings will not be completed and available for use until well into 2023. There is major work planned in connection with this in Spring next year although I don’t have exact dates.

 

[fgwrich]

Certainly I've heard rumours of the withdrawal of trains that up until recently were expected to be around for years.

Indeed, I know the very fleet you are thinking of. We shall see, but I cant see any easy or readily lined up future for them!

 

[JonathanH]

EMR have reportedly decided to keep theirs on long-term, and Grand Central have no replacements.

While speculative with regard to any given fleet, it is not speculative to observe that in the context of the current budgetary constraints and funding cuts decisions previously made can be (and are being) reversed.

 

[geoffk]

So if the locals are being cut back to Taunton, that would surely mean the plan for stations at Cullompton and Wellington is dead as well? Although building new stations with no trains wouldn't surprise me very much

not to mention Ivybridge. Is XC going back to hourly to Plymouth? Seems unlikely.

 

[Bletchleyite]

not to mention Ivybridge. Is XC going back to hourly to Plymouth? Seems unlikely.

Ivybridge is hardly the most basket case station down that way! It's Menheniot and St Germans I'd worry about being threatened.