Have electric vehicles been "oversold" to the detriment of public transport, walking and cycling?

[Bletchleyite]

not me. nor most in my village. Its a mess of shared accesses, unadopted roads in a conservation area/national park. not sure the electric supply is up to much extra load. Most of the village is one big transformer. but part are smaller transformers up on poles.

OK, so your next plan - presumably you drive your car to more built up places at some point, else there'd be no point owning one. Charge there?

 

[thejuggler]

Problem for me with EVs at the moment is the range of the cars available for a sensible price, not the actual range as 200 miles between charges is more than acceptable. I've driven pool car Leafs for 7-8 years, but wouldn't buy one.

Ioniq 5 is probably the start of what will be the next generation of EVs.

As for EVs being no use in rural areas I've just been to some remote areas of the west coast of Scotland and saw EVs everywhere, many were Teslas, so not cheap to buy, but around there no doubt they are ideal. I did see my first Mustang mach-e at the Mull of Kintyre, which by anyone's standards is remote.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As for EVs being no use in rural areas I've just been to some remote areas of the west coast of Scotland and saw EVs everywhere, many were Teslas, so not cheap to buy, but around there no doubt they are ideal. I did see my first Mustang mach-e at the Mull of Kintyre, which by anyone's standards is remote.

Great to drive on narrow, steep country roads - if you drive a manual car you spend pretty much the whole time rowing the gearbox. There is an element of enjoyment to derive from doing this smoothly and skilfully, but eventually it does get a bit boring.

As for range of vehicles you are right there - there are for example very few SUVs or estates. But they will get there as they become mainstream. A Leaf is also not for me.

 

[AM9]

Extremely unlikely they will do so in such short timescales.

The reason supermarkets have petrol stations in the first place is to attract customers to the stores, profit from fuel sales is negligible. In 5 years time the majority of cars on the road will still be ICE, any stores which remove petrol stations will become far less attractive for a large proportion of the population compared to their competitors which do still have them.

I wouldn't be so sure. Remember that the number of visits to filling stations is dependent on the total distance that all of the cars there have covered. Most cars cover more miles in their earlier years, so as the volume of electric cars overtakes IC types (some commentators have indicated that this could happen by the middle of this decade), the number of IC cars visiting filling stations will be well below the numbers wanting charging. The market for fuel will match this demand and just as diesel vehicle drivers are finding, the number of pumps that they can fill from is steadily declining. The same will happen with petrol vs charging, so at some point, there will be a queue of IC engined cars cars witing for their turn at a few or even a solitary pump, whilst the EVs will go strainght to their chargers. So much for the "I don't have enough time to wait for a car to charge so I still have an IC car that I can fill in 3 minutes", - that might be after a 20 minute queue! A case of what goes around comes around.

 

[Ken H]

I wouldn't be so sure. Remember that the number of visits to filling stations is dependent on the total distance that all of the cars there have covered. Most cars cover more miles in their earlier years, so as the volume of electric cars overtakes IC types (some commentators have indicated that this could happen by the middle of this decade), the number of IC cars visiting filling stations will be well below the numbers wanting charging. The market for fuel will match this demand and just as diesel vehicle drivers are finding, the number of pumps that they can fill from is steadily declining. The same will happen with petrol vs charging, so at some point, there will be a queue of IC engined cars cars witing for their turn at a few or even a solitary pump, whilst the EVs will go strainght to their chargers. So much for the "I don't have enough time to wait for a car to charge so I still have an IC car that I can fill in 3 minutes", - that might be after a 20 minute queue! A case of what goes around comes around.

my local filling stn is also a small supermarket. I go more to get stuff from the shop than I do to buy fuel. As do many people.

 

[AM9]

my local filling stn is also a small supermarket. I go more to get stuff from the shop than I do to buy fuel. As do many people.

So when a majority of it's customers request a charging point and the petrol sales fall through the floor, what will happen?

 

[Ken H]

So when a majority of it's customers request a charging point and the petrol sales fall through the floor, what will happen?

they will have to put a charging farm elsewhere. no room at the current site for more than 4-5 charging points for a huge hinterland of remote places. a charging point there would be irrelevant. people are in the store less than 5 minutes.

 

[skyhigh]

This EV thing is OK in cities, useless in the country.

I live in rural North Yorkshire, works perfectly for me. I wouldn't go back to petrol.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

Most people who live in the countryside have off road parking, or at least can be sure to always park outside their house on the road so could run a cable.

Which, if running across the pavement will pose a trip hazard to pedestrians...

 

[The Ham]

Extremely unlikely they will do so in such short timescales.

The reason supermarkets have petrol stations in the first place is to attract customers to the stores, profit from fuel sales is negligible. In 5 years time the majority of cars on the road will still be ICE, any stores which remove petrol stations will become far less attractive for a large proportion of the population compared to their competitors which do still have them.

Realistically I don't see that happening until at least 70% of cars are EVs.

Depends on what is meant by "pulling out of petrol", it could simply mean no further investment in and so as pumps need replacing/upgrading they are closed down.

If that's the case it could be another (say) 3 years before they close all their sites.

However the rose of electric cars is fairly rapid 2018 had just shy if 60,000 EV's (so an average of 5,000/month), in July of this year (and remember July isn't that popular for new car sales, so would typically be below average) there were over 11,000 and made up about 9% of all car sales (more than diesel).

If in sub 18 months it's doubled, let's say it takes 25 months to double and a further 45 to double again then that's at least 40% of all new cars. However as EV's make more sense, even on those figures chances are that the percentage of total miles (not just new cars) could be about 40%.

On that basis, would you really want to stay in the petrol for very much longer than 5 years? As such, 5 years may be a little short but probably not by that much.

However, that's assuming that the doubling process is due to slow down from its current rate.

Of course that's only half the story, as that's only looking at pure EV's, and so it's likely that pure Diesel cars are likely to be rare as new cars within a year and pure petrol probably likewise within 3 years.

If that's the case then there's likely to be a fair number of plug in hybrids, meaning that they'll mostly be looking for fuel for their longer distance travel and probably not the target market of supermarkets.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Which, if running across the pavement will pose a trip hazard to pedestrians...

I think you have an odd image of the kind of rural village under discussion, most of them don't have much in the way of pavements.

People who live in towns and cities will have far more nearby public charging facilities.

 

[Domh245]

Depends on what is meant by "pulling out of petrol", it could simply mean no further investment in and so as pumps need replacing/upgrading they are closed down.

If that's the case it could be another (say) 3 years before they close all their sites.

However the rose of electric cars is fairly rapid 2018 had just shy if 60,000 EV's (so an average of 5,000/month), in July of this year (and remember July isn't that popular for new car sales, so would typically be below average) there were over 11,000 and made up about 9% of all car sales (more than diesel).

If in sub 18 months it's doubled, let's say it takes 25 months to double and a further 45 to double again then that's at least 40% of all new cars. However as EV's make more sense, even on those figures chances are that the percentage of total miles (not just new cars) could be about 40%.

On that basis, would you really want to stay in the petrol for very much longer than 5 years? As such, 5 years may be a little short but probably not by that much.

However, that's assuming that the doubling process is due to slow down from its current rate.

Of course that's only half the story, as that's only looking at pure EV's, and so it's likely that pure Diesel cars are likely to be rare as new cars within a year and pure petrol probably likewise within 3 years.

If that's the case then there's likely to be a fair number of plug in hybrids, meaning that they'll mostly be looking for fuel for their longer distance travel and probably not the target market of supermarkets.

Pure petrol & diesel may be going away, but they're predominantly being replaced by mild hybrids rather than plug-ins or BEVs

You can look at the Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders outlook, and even in their high optimism scenario you don't reach 50% BEV until around 2034 (central scenario finishes in 2035 at BEV with 45% share of all vehicles). They also publish sale forecasts on a 2 year outlook, the latest of which has BEV rising by about 50% each year hitting 12% market share in 2022

It's a very brave business decision therefore to abandon fossil fuels any time soon, particularly as that study doesn't account for light commercial vehicles, which will represent a significant demand for dino-juice.

 

[The Ham]

Pure petrol & diesel may be going away, but they're predominantly being replaced by mild hybrids rather than plug-ins or BEVs

You can look at the Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders outlook, and even in their high optimism scenario you don't reach 50% BEV until around 2034 (central scenario finishes in 2035 at BEV with 45% share of all vehicles). They also publish sale forecasts on a 2 year outlook, the latest of which has BEV rising by about 50% each year hitting 12% market share in 2022

It's a very brave business decision therefore to abandon fossil fuels any time soon, particularly as that study doesn't account for light commercial vehicles, which will represent a significant demand for dino-juice.

50% year on year would mean (assuming 12% in 2022) that by 2026 that 60% of new cars would be BEV. On that basis the guess of 40% would be too low.

As I said, it could be that it's no new investment, which would push the closure of their pumps a few years after that.

Whilst it's possible that 5 years may be a little too fast it is equally likely that 10 years is likely to be too long.

 

[telstarbox]

OK, so your next plan - presumably you drive your car to more built up places at some point, else there'd be no point owning one. Charge there?

At Tesco for example:

 

[Bayum]

I’d quite like to get an electric mini but the prices are horrendous and I don’t know how I’d charge it up without our electricity bill becoming extortionate!

 

[Ken H]

At Tesco for example:

last long journey i made was to family in the midlands. no tesco in the small town where they live. besides i drove to their house, and we walked into the high street. before that I drove to the top of the Kirkstone pass to walk the hills. no charging there. no charging at tesco skipton where we do big shops every 6 weeks.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I’d quite like to get an electric mini but the prices are horrendous and I don’t know how I’d charge it up without our electricity bill becoming extortionate!

If able to charge at home it'd cost you substantially less than filling the petrol version with fuel.

 

[Ken H]

If able to charge at home it'd cost you substantially less than filling the petrol version with fuel.

wonder how many homes there are where charging at home is impossible? I bet loads.

 

[DelW]

I’d quite like to get an electric mini but the prices are horrendous and I don’t know how I’d charge it up without our electricity bill becoming extortionate!

The increase in your electricity bill would easily be offset by your saving in petrol costs.

I reckon around 4p - 5p per mile for local journeys on electricity, compared with about 13p - 20p per mile on petrol. That's on my normal home tariff, not a special rate.

 

[Bletchleyite]

last long journey i made was to family in the midlands. no tesco in the small town where they live. besides i drove to their house, and we walked into the high street. before that I drove to the top of the Kirkstone pass to walk the hills. no charging there. no charging at tesco skipton where we do big shops every 6 weeks.

There will be chargers at Tesco Skipton before very long, as demand increases. It's no different from having a petrol station.

I can't see the Kirkstone Inn having chargers any time soon, but the public car park in Ambleside absolutely will.

But there will always be the odd case, of which you may be one, where an EV might not work, or where it will be necessary to make small lifestyle changes to have one.

wonder how many homes there are where charging at home is impossible? I bet loads.

Charging at home is possible at 100% of houses with driveways. You can do it from a 13A socket overnight, running the cable through a window or something. If you want a fast charge you can have a dedicated socket installed.

Obviously homes where you park on the road don't offer charging, but there are other opportunities like while doing your shopping, which you might do 6-weekly but most people do every week. Half an hour on a fast charger while doing your shopping will get you to 80% on most cars. It's also likely something will, in time, be done about this issue, such as fitting 13A charging sockets (wouldn't need to be fast chargers for overnight charging) to lamp posts and rejigging the parking arrangements to suit.

 

[DelW]

last long journey i made was to family in the midlands. no tesco in the small town where they live. besides i drove to their house, and we walked into the high street. before that I drove to the top of the Kirkstone pass to walk the hills. no charging there. no charging at tesco skipton where we do big shops every 6 weeks.

You're endlessly telling us why an EV doesn't suit your needs. That's fine - don't buy one. But that doesn't mean that they don't suit a lot of people with different needs. By 2030, when new ICE sales are due to end, the availability of charging locations will be very different from now.

 

[skyhigh]

no charging at tesco skipton where we do big shops every 6 weeks.

No, but the Morrisons just next to Tesco does have fast charging facilities.

 

[Ken H]

There will be chargers at Tesco Skipton before very long, as demand increases. It's no different from having a petrol station.

I can't see the Kirkstone Inn having chargers any time soon, but the public car park in Ambleside absolutely will.

But there will always be the odd case, of which you may be one, where an EV might not work, or where it will be necessary to make small lifestyle changes to have one.



Charging at home is possible at 100% of houses with driveways. You can do it from a 13A socket overnight, running the cable through a window or something. If you want a fast charge you can have a dedicated socket installed.

Obviously homes where you park on the road don't offer charging, but there are other opportunities like while doing your shopping, which you might do 6-weekly but most people do every week. Half an hour on a fast charger while doing your shopping will get you to 80% on most cars. It's also likely something will, in time, be done about this issue, such as fitting 13A charging sockets (wouldn't need to be fast chargers for overnight charging) to lamp posts and rejigging the parking arrangements to suit.

rows and rows of terraced housing, flats, households with many cars as kids stay at home into their 20's.

 

[skyhigh]

There will be chargers at Tesco Skipton before very long, as demand increases. It's no different from having a petrol station.

If you look at the rollout of EV charging at Tesco on the operator website (https://pod-point.com/rollout/tesco-ev-charging), you can see just how quickly it's being rolled out.

You're endlessly telling us why an EV doesn't suit your needs. That's fine - don't buy one. But that doesn't mean that they don't suit a lot of people with different needs. By 2030, when new ICE sales are due to end, the availability of charging locations will be very different from now.

Yeah, I note we've moved on from 'loads will need new batteries in 4 years' without much comment... You can come up with plenty of reasons why you don't want one, but for the majority of the population I'd suggest they are already a practical option and it's only going to get easier.

 

[Ken H]

If you look at the rollout of EV charging at Tesco on the operator website (https://pod-point.com/rollout/tesco-ev-charging), you can see just how quickly it's being rolled out.


Yeah, I note we've moved on from 'loads will need new batteries in 4 years' without much comment... You can come up with plenty of reasons why you don't want one, but for the majority of the population I'd suggest they are already a practical option and it's only going to get easier.

but this will be imposed on people for whom they are really no good. I am OK with people making a choice. Its the compulsion I dislike.

 

[DelW]

but this will be imposed on people for whom they are really no good. I am OK with people making a choice. Its the compulsion I dislike.

There is no compulsion - anyone can continue buying new petrol cars for the next nine years, and using them for an indefinite period after that.

By 2030 the charging infrastructure will be vastly more widespread than it is now. But if it still doesn't suit your needs, you can continue to drive a petrol car as long as it can be maintained and the fuel is available - which is likely to be for a considerable time. I don't foresee any government demanding that all petrol cars be scrapped.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yeah, I note we've moved on from 'loads will need new batteries in 4 years' without much comment... You can come up with plenty of reasons why you don't want one, but for the majority of the population I'd suggest they are already a practical option and it's only going to get easier.

The only thing stopping me from buying one tomorrow is the high price of the kind of vehicle I'm after new (a medium SUV or MPV) and the lack of second hand vehicles as those haven't been on the market long enough yet. Lots of Nissan Leafs at reasonable prices if I wanted one but I don't.

 

[Bayum]

The increase in your electricity bill would easily be offset by your saving in petrol costs.

I reckon around 4p - 5p per mile for local journeys on electricity, compared with about 13p - 20p per mile on petrol. That's on my normal home tariff, not a special rate.

Yes… My electricity bill…

 

[skyhigh]

The only thing stopping me from buying one tomorrow is the high price of the kind of vehicle I'm after new (a medium SUV or MPV) and the lack of second hand vehicles as those haven't been on the market long enough yet. Lots of Nissan Leafs at reasonable prices if I wanted one but I don't.

Yes, I completely agree - the ID4 is a lovely car but it's out of my price range. Thankfully a Zoe is pretty much the perfect size for my needs right now, and the new ones are way ahead of the first gen models or a leaf in comfort in my opinion. If you shop around you can get one on a cheaper lease than a Clio now...

 

[DelW]

Yes… My electricity bill…

Ah - I'm guessing here, but if you've got a source of free fuel, then the economics don't work.

I used to have that, with an employer who allowed more or less unlimited use of a company car and company fuel. Then we were taken over by another firm, who withdrew the fuel cards - then withdrew the cars. A lot of very unhappy employees!