Heading into autumn - what next?

[island]

Well, Denmark has announced all COVID-related restrictions will be abolished from 10 September.

As an EU passport holder I could decamp there

 

[yorksrob]

Well, Denmark has announced all COVID-related restrictions will be abolished from 10 September.

As an EU passport holder I could decamp there

It's certainly good news that continental countries are seeing sense.

 

[adc82140]

It's certainly good news that continental countries are seeing sense.

I posted on another thread yesterday that the EU allows unquarantined untested entry even from their "red list" countries for the fully vaccinated. Sensible.

 

[yorksrob]

I posted on another thread yesterday that the EU allows unquarantined untested entry even from their "red list" countries for the fully vaccinated. Sensible.

That's true from the point of travel, but I'm particularly of the view that domestic restrictions need to be curtailed.

 

[greyman42]

Hospitalisations are manageable. On the average autumn day, over 1000 people a day get admitted with flu, and 150 a day will die. Barely gets, any column inches.

An inconvenient truth for some.

 

[102 fan]

Of course, but at such low interest rates it barely registers compared to previous decades:

View attachment 101828

You are naive in the extreme if you think we won't be paying for this.

 

[island]

I posted on another thread yesterday that the EU allows unquarantined untested entry even from their "red list" countries for the fully vaccinated. Sensible.

That's not correct. Each member state sets its own rules for what exactly one must do upon arrival. For example, the Netherlands requires vaccinated travellers arriving from the UK to have a clear test and self-isolate for 5-10 days, and Ireland requires arrivals from red-listed EU countries to have a test and self-isolate for 5-14 days (if vaccinated; hotel quarantine if not).

 

[adc82140]

I guess each country can set its own rules then. France is certainly following the EU ones. However with no internal borders, a British national could just enter the Netherlands via France and Belgium and no one would even know they were there.

 

[island]

However with no internal borders, a British national could just enter the Netherlands via France and Belgium and no one would even know they were there.

Indeed.

 

[ExRes]

Well, Denmark has announced all COVID-related restrictions will be abolished from 10 September.

As an EU passport holder I could decamp there

I'd do a little more research to be sure though, I understand that restrictions on travel into Denmark will remain in force until at least October

It's certainly good news that continental countries are seeing sense.

Which other countries are those? I thought, but may well be wrong, that most European countries were actually more lockdown crazy than the UK, at least we haven't had water cannon and tear gas being used as in some of the leading EU states

 

[adc82140]

I'd do a little more research to be sure though, I understand that restrictions on travel into Denmark will remain in force until at least October

See my post above re the Netherlands. London to Copenhagen in the car via Eurotunnel is 18 hours. I know because I've done it. Some friends drove from Copenhagen to France last week and they informed me there are no checks at any border.

 

[quantinghome]

You are naive in the extreme if you think we won't be paying for this.

What % interest rate do you think we'll be paying?

 

[yorksrob]

I'd do a little more research to be sure though, I understand that restrictions on travel into Denmark will remain in force until at least October



Which other countries are those? I thought, but may well be wrong, that most European countries were actually more lockdown crazy than the UK, at least we haven't had water cannon and tear gas being used as in some of the leading EU states

@island in n this very thread has stated that Denmark will be lifting restrictions.

My post was entirely in response to that post. If you have reason to believe that, that will not be the case, take it up with him.

 

[ExRes]

@island in n this very thread has stated that Denmark will be lifting restrictions.

My post was entirely in response to that post. If you have reason to believe that, that will not be the case, take it up with him.

No need to get carried away, it was simply a comment regarding what was in your post, as many, many comments on this forum are, not some sort of personal attack

 

[DelayRepay]

A key consideration is whether Sunak holds his guns on the furlough scheme;

If I was him, I would leak to my friends in the media that, as a contingency, I was planning to introduce a replacement to furlough. It would be similar to the previous scheme in that people would receive 80% of their normal wage, but in return they would be required to report to their local council to assist with tasks that are currently struggling due to a lack of workforce such, as emptying the bins.

That may change the view of those who've enjoyed long periods of paid leave at the expense of others over the last 18 months.

 

[yorksrob]

I've never been convinced that the appetite for restrictions amongst policy makers is being driven by the willing furloughed. Infact I suspect that the majority of those on it would have preferred not to be.

Lockdown is an ideological obsession that needs to be crushed.

 

[Andyh82]

I agree with others that I can see flu and general coughs and colds being high this winter. I know I’ve barely had a cold since before Covid, whereas usually I’d have a few of varying levels of severity over the year. This will be highlighted and sensationalised in the media it’ll be the new ‘Pingdemic’ style crisis.

Regarding any restrictions, I could see some sort of reduction in large events, maybe rule of 6 or social distancing returning, but not any full lockdowns. It’ll all depend on what the general direction of travel we see with the media, the opposition and the devolved nations, to put pressure on Boris to go a certain way.

 

[Green tractor]

And that is the big "if" isn't it. Hospitalisations are currently much higher than they were this time last year.

People are not spending as long in hospital though, its the number of people IN hospital at any one time that matters, not the daily/weekly admission numbers.

It's a pity furlough wasn't ending now, instead of in September. It's been like a toilet which won't flush properly, every time we think it's nearly gone it comes back again. Once it's finished it will be much harder to bring back, but there's a risk that if things do go downhill over September then it could be extended at the 11th-hour and 59th minute again.

The only reason furlough was extended last time was to take us to a point where all the vulnerable groups, and the vast majority of the rest of the population were vaccinated. (The first vaccine had just been found to work) Unless some new miracle cure appears that will reduce deaths to zero in a very short space of time, it aint going to happen

 

[Freightmaster]

People are not spending as long in hospital though, its the number of people IN hospital at any one time that matters, not the daily/weekly admission numbers.

You are absolutely correct, but I would go a bit further and say that the most critical statistic is ICU occupancy
rather than hospital occupancy in general. If ICU occupancy this Winter starts to approach the levels seen in January,
pressure will grow for emergency 'mitigation' measures to be taken.




MARK

 

[bramling]

I've never been convinced that the appetite for restrictions amongst policy makers is being driven by the willing furloughed. Infact I suspect that the majority of those on it would have preferred not to be.

Lockdown is an ideological obsession that needs to be crushed.

I'd say furlough is one link in a chain, but I agree it's by no means the only one.

But if we were saying to people "your job is closed, and by the way you won't be getting any pay" then certainly there would be more uproar. In the same way there probably would be if we were saying "lockdown from Monday evening, you're being issued with a tag and you will be limited to one hour exercise per day within 5 miles, and an automatic fine issued if the tag identifies you're breaching that".

I'm not advocating either of these things, however the most recent lockdown hit a bit of a sweet-spot for many, with has no doubt neutralised what would otherwise have probably been a deeply unpopular policy decision.

 

[Ianno87]

I'd say furlough is one link in a chain, but I agree it's by no means the only one.

But if we were saying to people "your job is closed, and by the way you won't be getting any pay" then certainly there would be more uproar. In the same way there probably would be if we were saying "lockdown from Monday evening, you're being issued with a tag and you will be limited to one hour exercise per day within 5 miles, and an automatic fine issued if the tag identifies you're breaching that".

I'm not advocating either of these things, however the most recent lockdown hit a bit of a sweet-spot for many, with has no doubt neutralised what would otherwise have probably been a deeply unpopular policy decision.

The vast majority of folk found January lockdown hard work and miserable.

 

[scotrail158713]

The vast majority of folk found January lockdown hard work and miserable.

Personally I definitely did. Darkness and rubbish weather in January/February vs the lighter, brighter nights of spring in 2020. Whilst both were rubbish I know which was better.

Which, to bring it back to the OP, is why I definitely believe this autumn and winter time is massive. Lockdown at some point and winter lockdowns become normal, or make it through unscathed and the concept of "lockdown" becomes a distant memory. As things stand, I reckon the former sadly seems more likely up here, whilst the latter more likely down south. (IMO after the 19th July easing the govt seem more able to hold their nerve around these decisions)

 

[bramling]

Personally I definitely did. Darkness and rubbish weather in January/February vs the lighter, brighter nights of spring in 2020. Whilst both were rubbish I know which was better.

Which, to bring it back to the OP, is why I definitely believe this autumn and winter time is massive. Lockdown at some point and winter lockdowns become normal, or make it through unscathed and the concept of "lockdown" becomes a distant memory. As things stand, I reckon the former sadly seems more likely up here, whilst the latter more likely down south. (IMO after the 19th July easing the govt seem more able to hold their nerve around these decisions)

I agree with this, we are at a crunch time. If I had to lay money on it, I reckon we will be lucky to reach the spring without some form of lockdown restrictions, there’s already deja-vu cropping up with talk of circuit breakers, and if this is the mood in September then it doesn’t look promising, as at least last year we got to mid October before the tough talk really started.

Too many people seem to relish the idea of lockdown, goodness knows why but there really are people who do.

 

[yorksrob]

We have a duty to go about our normal lives as much as possible to embed normal ways of life and see off the new normal.

Deny them the compliance.

We have to defend our way of life.

 

[102 fan]

What % interest rate do you think we'll be paying?

You tell me!

 

[Bantamzen]

Of course, but at such low interest rates it barely registers compared to previous decades:

View attachment 101828

"Its OK, we have massively overspent way beyond our budget but the interest rates are low so its all good". Said no-one, ever

Seriously, do you really believe there will be no effect from increasing public sector debt by the amount we have?

 

[greyman42]

We have a duty to go about our normal lives as much as possible to embed normal ways of life and see off the new normal.

Deny them the compliance.

We have to defend our way of life.

I agree whole heartedly, any further lockdowns or significant restrictions such as mask wearing must be denied compliance. Personally, i do not think we will get any more lockdowns.

 

[adc82140]

The Scottish circuit breaker idea was a figment of the over fertile imagination of a Scottish journalist. Sturgeon said as much. Circuit breakers have been proven to be useless, and that was before Delta.

 

[farleigh]

We have a duty to go about our normal lives as much as possible to embed normal ways of life and see off the new normal.

Deny them the compliance.

We have to defend our way of life.

I agree completely.

I was out in a restaurant and a few pubs last night and it was back to pre-Covid in terms of people's behaviour. It was great and we must not let that go again.

 

[WestRiding]

I have a back to office plan starting next month, social stuff is on the calendar as is a bit of international travel. Not really too much to complain about although it's not as back-to-normal as I'd really like.

My guess is we'll see some of the following;

- Higher case and death numbers in the short term. Some short term government wibbling about the threat of more lockdowns but ultimately they won't happen
- Removal of the testing requirements for green countries, ideally amber too
- Continuation of mask requirements on planes
- Vaccine boosters available for priority groups 1 to 6 and the morphing of boosters into something that resembles an annual flu shot
- Further realisation that most face coverings are pretty pointless, and slow but steady corresponding rule relaxations across all businesses except airlines
- A further slow dawdle by companies back to the workplace either in a hybrid or full time sense
- Domestic vaccine passports to just fade away as a concept

Right now I don't know what true optimism looks like or if it's even warranted. Knowing this government literally anything could happen.

I hope you are right about getting rid of the testing for foreign travel etc. Especially the Return Antigen things, given not many other countries are wanting one for us to enter. How can it be harder to get into my own country, than Poland for example. Especially if jabbed.