How busy have your trains been?

[Peregrine 4903]

I mean if you look at the dft public transport usage state, national rail was at consistently 55% of pre covid levels for the entire week from the 7th June to the 13th June, which is the last week where the data is fully complete, which I think is pretty good going to be honest. Still a long way to go, but considering we are still in a pandemic, many leisure places are still not fully open and the requirement is still to work from home where possible, I think these are promising numbers. I'm not saying we are going to get to 100% and these numbers will obviously fluctuate but I think the railways do have a good base to build off. People are returning unlike what some people were saying.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Slowly getting busier - on dropping no 3 off for the 0710 or 0726 fast train , it is now common to see commuters around walking to the station in some numbers. Not so long ago , it was a sight to be commented on.Drop off's also up.

Off peak loadings are very good - to an extent - fast calls at West Hampstead on the down produce maybe 15 or so passengers - about right pre March 2020 , and today's run out to Tunbridge Wells showed how busy the Hastings line is off peak. No one "disgusted" though .......

What is striking is the loadings on North Kent Thameslink Rainham trains - really quite decent ......

 

[43066]

Similar around the London area - most off-peak trains are back to roughly normal loadings I'd say. It's really just the high peak which is suppressed in places - 0800 is still very quiet, quieter than the off-peak in some (not all) places. Even that is picking up though.

I think the worries about empty trains forever are quickly turning out to be unfounded. There will come a point when the roads become too congested to absorb any more - certainly locally we're back to the days of road journeys being an assault course, something pleasantly absent at times over the last year.

I mean if you look at the dft public transport usage state, national rail was at consistently 55% of pre covid levels for the entire week from the 7th June to the 13th June, which is the last week where the data is fully complete, which I think is pretty good going to be honest. Still a long way to go, but considering we are still in a pandemic, many leisure places are still not fully open and the requirement is still to work from home where possible, I think these are promising numbers. I'm not saying we are going to get to 100% and these numbers will obviously fluctuate but I think the railways do have a good base to build off. People are returning unlike what some people were saying.

Very much my observations too.

What is striking is the loadings on North Kent Thameslink Rainham trains - really quite decent ......

Those were always very well used pre Covid and do indeed seem to be rebounding quickly whenever I happen upon one through the core to London Bridge.

 

[Ianno87]

I mean if you look at the dft public transport usage state, national rail was at consistently 55% of pre covid levels for the entire week from the 7th June to the 13th June, which is the last week where the data is fully complete, which I think is pretty good going to be honest. Still a long way to go, but considering we are still in a pandemic, many leisure places are still not fully open and the requirement is still to work from home where possible, I think these are promising numbers. I'm not saying we are going to get to 100% and these numbers will obviously fluctuate but I think the railways do have a good base to build off. People are returning unlike what some people were saying.

Though remember that 55% (whilst respectable considering the points you raise) is an average of passenger numbers (not revenue, which is further behind), and hides a large amount of variation across time of day and route/region.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

Though remember that 55% (whilst respectable considering the points you raise) is an average of passenger numbers (not revenue, which is further behind), and hides a large amount of variation across time of day and route/region.

100%, wouldn't surprise me if revenue is lagging behind by 20% sadly, but I still think all is not lost and there are some already encouraging signs. I do think the railway's biggest issue is that commuters bring in far more revenue than lesiure travellers and that's going to be an issue for the next few years. But ultimately we need to wait and see.

 

[Jamesrob637]

The 07:19 from Heaton Chapel to Manchester Oxford Road has been fairly consistent since the 15th of June which was my first full day in work. Not very busy. Pre-COVID this was apparently rammed, and it's booked 6-car. Manchester city centre is busy for the standards of the past 16 months, but still a long way off pre-COVID levels. Pre-COVID was actually unpleasant at times so it's a blessing in disguise that things won't fully return to the way they were before March last year. However, commuter numbers could still do with picking up a little more. I'm looking forward to many doing hybrid work whereby it's a couple of days a week in the office and WFH the rest.

 

[Jamesrob637]

many won't return one day a week. They won't be travelling to as many business meetings either.

Most people I've spoken to want to return to the office, but not all the time.

 

[bramling]

Perhaps not empty trains, but it's far too early to tell how it will all settle down. It's certainly too early to say worries are quickly turning out to be unfounded.

My local experience, both on trains and speaking to former rail users, is that very many commuters have adapted very well to working from home and will not be returning 4 or 5 days a week as before, and many won't return one day a week. They won't be travelling to as many business meetings either. However, if the TOCs can make their trains more welcoming (masks, seat booking, costs) leisure may soon exceed pre-Covid on some routes. On some services it possibly already has.

Clearly there are going to be some very big variations, regional, local and times of day and week. Over the next 3 or 4 years it will settle down to a new normal. And yes, having travelled about 1500 miles by road in the last fortnight I get the point about congestion, but that's likely to encourage more to WFH than to use trains.

I’m a bit sceptical about this idea of leisure somehow being the new big thing - simply because there’s a finite number of leisure journeys which are there to be made. Obviously with Covid the last year and a half has been a big jolly for some people, but once things settle down this isn’t going to be the case. There aren’t going to be people on furlough, there aren’t going to be teenagers sent home from school because someone in their year group has tested positive, employers are going to be stricter with people taking a sneaky day at the beach when they’re meant to be working, and of course many people will be back to taking a foreign holiday (the current miserable run of weather isn’t exactly going to tempt people to repeat the experience).

Likewise whilst many people are waxing lyrical about how they’re not going to be returning to the office, in reality it’s not their decision to make, it’s down to their employer. I’m sure there’s people who are able to do all their workload from home, however there’s plenty for whom working from home has only been possible because their workload has been modified to suit.

The last few weeks have seen suits and ties back on London commuter trains, albeit not in massive numbers, and this has been something conspicuously absent since last March. They are coming back for sure. Station car parks are gradually refilling too, and this is a good proxy.

 

[Killingworth]

I’m a bit sceptical about this idea of leisure somehow being the new big thing - simply because there’s a finite number of leisure journeys which are there to be made. Obviously with Covid the last year and a half has been a big jolly for some people, but once things settle down this isn’t going to be the case. There aren’t going to be people on furlough, there aren’t going to be teenagers sent home from school because someone in their year group has tested positive, employers are going to be stricter with people taking a sneaky day at the beach when they’re meant to be working, and of course many people will be back to taking a foreign holiday (the current miserable run of weather isn’t exactly going to tempt people to repeat the experience).

Likewise whilst many people are waxing lyrical about how they’re not going to be returning to the office, in reality it’s not their decision to make, it’s down to their employer. I’m sure there’s people who are able to do all their workload from home, however there’s plenty for whom working from home has only been possible because their workload has been modified to suit.

The last few weeks have seen suits and ties back on London commuter trains, albeit not in massive numbers, and this has been something conspicuously absent since last March. They are coming back for sure. Station car parks are gradually refilling too, and this is a good proxy.

I hope you're right but I see weak evidence of a return to 5 day week commuting and business travel isn't strong either. Zoom, Teams and their like may lack networking opportunities but are here to stay.

We all see things from our own viewpoint geographically, and from a variety of working and non working situations. Add to that that this forum is dominated by workers in the railway industry, present and past, and railway enthusiasts. We aren't a typical cross section of the country.

We can all find examples of both quiet and busy trains. If 55% of pre Covid is a figure produced by the industry it must include the 20-25% of normal commuting from my station, and maybe 75% of leisure travel. However to Manchester Airport it's nearer 5%, at best - TPE have withdrawn the direct service!

After 15 months of working from home almost every employer has had to rethink how to organise their operations. Many of those changes will become permanent. I know of one employer who relinquished the lease on their office premises a year ago and now has everyone working from home.

Yes, people are creeping back. Many miss the social contact. Many firms are concerned about training and security for home workers. But 2-3 hours of a day committed to travel,, plus the cost, means public transport has a battle on to fill enough seats to satisfy their revenue needs.

 

[Ianno87]

I think the remaining effect of furlough on work travel is near-negligible.

It's something like 1.5 million people still on furlough at present, and that will be dominated by industries like aviation.

Based on the March 2021 figures, London & South East (where rail is most dominant) made up somewhere around 1/3 of the total national furlough total.

Pro-rata-ing that to today would be around 500,000 people in London & South East on furlough today. Generously assume that 20% or so of them are rail commuters, that's about 100,000 commuters across all of London & South East. Relative peanuts in the context of overall numbers.

 

[The Ham]

Something which had to be remembered when looking at the 55% of use is that a lot of companies are still having their staff mostly WFH.

Whilst that will not return to 100% office based for most of those we'd still likely see rail commuting get to about 60% (3 days a week average), not because those who did so before all return to working 3 days a week. Rather because there's likely to be some who didn't use rail before (mostly drove), but because of the infrequent nature of using a car could find it hard to justify the cost of a second or third car and so use the train some of the time.

Likewise, businesses, if their staff rarely have to go to business meetings due to using zoom/teams, may decide that company cars aren't needed so much. Also with remote working being possible may encourage the working on trains rather than the lost time of those staff driving.

 

[Ianno87]

, employers are going to be stricter with people taking a sneaky day at the beach when they’re meant to be working,

I still think you're really, really, really overestimating the number of people doing this based on a few examples you just happen to know.

 

[Ianno87]

Something which had to be remembered when looking at the 55% of use is that a lot of companies are still having their staff mostly WFH.

Whilst that will not return to 100% office based for most of those we'd still likely see rail commuting get to about 60% (3 days a week average), not because those who did so before all return to working 3 days a week. Rather because there's likely to be some who didn't use rail before (mostly drove), but because of the infrequent nature of using a car could find it hard to justify the cost of a second or third car and so use the train some of the time.

Likewise, businesses, if their staff rarely have to go to business meetings due to using zoom/teams, may decide that company cars aren't needed so much. Also with remote working being possible may encourage the working on trains rather than the lost time of those staff driving.

I also think there'll, over time, be people to whom a 5 day per week rail commute to <Big city office location> didn't appeal, but to whom 1 or 2 days a week now would, and over time will change jobs.

 

[The Ham]

I think the remaining effect of furlough on work travel is near-negligible.

It's something like 1.5 million people still on furlough at present, and that will be dominated by industries like aviation.

Based on the March 2021 figures, London & South East (where rail is most dominant) made up somewhere around 1/3 of the total national furlough total.

Pro-rata-ing that to today would be around 500,000 people in London & South East on furlough today. Generously assume that 20% or so of them are rail commuters, that's about 100,000 commuters across all of London & South East. Relative peanuts in the context of overall numbers.

Indeed, furlough is a tiny factor. Companies still at ~75% WFH full time are the biggest factor.

 

[The Ham]

I also think there'll, over time, be people to whom a 5 day per week rail commute to <Big city office location> didn't appeal, but to whom 1 or 2 days a week now would, and over time will change jobs.

Indeed, however there's still quite a few "commuters" who use rail for jobs which can't be done remotely as well as those in education.

However even at 75% full time WFH going to 80% WFH (1 day a week) would add about 10% more passengers to the rail network.

 

[Bald Rick]

Whilst that will not return to 100% office based for most of those we'd still likely see rail commuting get to about 60% (3 days a week average), not because those who did so before all return to working 3 days a week. Rather because there's likely to be some who didn't use rail before (mostly drove), but because of the infrequent nature of using a car could find it hard to justify the cost of a second or third car and so use the train some of the time.

We’ve done this to death before, but the number of people giving up their cars and switching to rail because of reduced days in th office is going to be close to zero. Much more likely to be the other way round.

 

[yorksrob]

My employer won't be going back to 5 days a week office based (they've already flogged off my office !).

 

[philosopher]

Likewise whilst many people are waxing lyrical about how they’re not going to be returning to the office, in reality it’s not their decision to make, it’s down to their employer. I’m sure there’s people who are able to do all their workload from home, however there’s plenty for whom working from home has only been possible because their workload has been modified to suit.

In the medium term, I think employees will end up moving to companies that most matches there preferences in terms of office vs home working. If the employer insists everyone needs to be back three, four or five days a week, many employees could end up leaving to companies where they are allowed to work from home three, four or five days a week.

After 15 months of working from home almost every employer has had to rethink how to organise their operations. Many of those changes will become permanent. I know of one employer who relinquished the lease on their office premises a year ago and now has everyone working from home.

Conversely in this case, I would suspect those who do not like working from home would end up quitting this company and move to employer that does allow office working.

I usually walk to work, my walk however takes me past a tube and national rail station. The tube station during the peak times is still very quiet, probably quieter than it would be during busier off-peak periods. The National Rail station is busier, but still way off what it would be in pre-covid peak times. However in the area my office is in does feel quite busy, there are often queues to buy coffee and lunch, so my conclusion is that it is mainly those who walk or cycle in who have returned to offices.

 

[Killingworth]

However in the area my office is in does feel quite busy, there are often queues to buy coffee and lunch, so my conclusion is that it is mainly those who walk or cycle in who have returned to offices.

For over a year the guidance/law has suggested that using public transport is a potential death sentence. WFH is still government guidance to employers. No wonder few have encouraged a return.

Whether it's reduced contact on trains or in offices it will have reduced the spread of the virus. Employers are now quite used to their arrangements and many won't want to hurry back. Yorksrob is one of an increasing number who may not be returning at all.

 

[yorksrob]

For over a year the guidance/law has suggested that using public transport is a potential death sentence. WFH is still government guidance to employers. No wonder few have encouraged a return.

Whether it's reduced contact on trains or in offices it will have reduced the spread of the virus. Employers are now quite used to their arrangements and many won't want to hurry back. Yorksrob is one of an increasing number who may not be returning at all

I'll be going in a few days a week (to one of the remaining offices) and by train at least !

 

[paul1609]

Car park watching of Southeastern and Southern stations in Kent and East Sussex suggests that commuters havent returned. I havent used rail in 2021. My railcard has run out. Pricing up a forthcoming leisure trip to North London the undiscouted travelcard is nearly £50. Ill be driving!

 

[yorksrob]

Perhaps the government needs to reconsider the pricing policies engaged on South Eastern.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

If 55% of pre Covid is a figure produced by the industry

As I understand it, it's 55% of ticket sales by volume, i.e. the "hard number" of tickets sold.

One thing which is not clear is if sales of season tickets are being counted as one ticket ( as it's one transaction ) or if they're being counted on the normal assumed number of days of travel during the validity.

 

[Ianno87]

As I understand it, it's 55% of ticket sales by volume, i.e. the "hard number" of tickets sold.

One thing which is not clear is if sales of season tickets are being counted as one ticket ( as it's one transaction ) or if they're being counted on the normal assumed number of days of travel during the validity.

I would guess it is actually "journeys", e.g a single counts as 1, a return counts as 2, annual counts as 560 (or whatever), etc.

 

[baz962]

We still have a reduced capacity at sports events and of course tourists are still hugely reduced. Although a lot of offices won't be back , I'm sure more will and then of course those people will use other businesses , such as coffee shops etc and they will need more staff that might use the train. Pubs and clubs etc are still not fully back and will bring commuters , both staff and customers. I reckon also that due to reduced revenue checks , that a few people are taking advantage and won't show up on the figures. I have no idea the percentage of all these customers , but I'm sure there are a lot more to come back. Probably a few still scared or that don't want to wear masks etc too.

 

[Killingworth]

We all have our anecdotal experiences to tell. Here's mine. We took the 2 car 195 12.14 Norrhern Hope Valley service out of Sheffield today. It was preceded by the12.11 TPE which looked lightly loaded.

I'd say a little over 50% of the seats in the 195 were taken, mostly younger people. A party of smartly dressed young women were having a pink champagne party, clearly settled down for the full ride to Manchester. I'd have said most were not old enough to have had two vaccine doses. Only about 20% of us masked. No announcements about masks so I think we can say that's now a lost cause.

Our return trip was on a 4 car 150 which was lightly loaded with possibly 50% mask wearing.

Anyone who is anxious about the virus would be turned off rail travel by the first train, and maybe the second. There are quite a lot of people who are, and they aren't all old.

I'd add that loadings are hard to judge overall. On the Hope Valley route between Sheffield and Manchester price is a big factor for leisure users. Time is more important for commuters and business travellers. Next Friday that 12.11 by TPE (taking 53 minutes) would cost £12.90 for an advance single. The 12.14 Northern (taking 78 minutes) would be £5.70 advance single. The 12.43 EMR (taking 54 minutes) would cost £23.20 for anytime single.

No wonder they'd brought the pink champagne for the longer journey time! They'd have paid for it from their fare saving. These fare disparities distort any loading comparisons, but that may be a subject for another thread. As might EMR's possible pricing away of congestion on potentially short formed trains!

 

[LowLevel]

We all have our anecdotal experiences to tell. Here's mine. We took the 2 car 195 12.14 Norrhern Hope Valley service out of Sheffield today. It was preceded by the12.11 TPE which looked lightly loaded.

I'd say a little over 50% of the seats in the 195 were taken, mostly younger people. A party of smartly dressed young women were having a pink champagne party, clearly settled down for the full ride to Manchester. I'd have said most were not old enough to have had two vaccine doses. Only about 20% of us masked. No announcements about masks so I think we can say that's now a lost cause.

Our return trip was on a 4 car 150 which was lightly loaded with possibly 50% mask wearing.

Anyone who is anxious about the virus would be turned off rail travel by the first train, and maybe the second. There are quite a lot of people who are, and they aren't all old.

I'd add that loadings are hard to judge overall. On the Hope Valley route between Sheffield and Manchester price is a big factor for leisure users. Time is more important for commuters and business travellers. Next Friday that 12.11 by TPE (taking 53 minutes) would cost £12.90 for an advance single. The 12.14 Northern (taking 78 minutes) would be £5.70 advance single. The 12.43 EMR (taking 54 minutes) would cost £23.20 for anytime single.

No wonder they'd brought the pink champagne for the longer journey time! They'd have paid for it from their fare saving. These fare disparities distort any loading comparisons, but that may be a subject for another thread. As might EMR's possible pricing away of congestion on potentially short formed trains!

EMR trains load up quite heavily already at Nottingham and Chesterfield (from Derby and Leicester). Selling lots of cheap tickets from Sheffield is unnecessary when you could argue that the TPE service has it's main Eastern passenger base there.

Unfortunately TPE price the Sheffield to Manchester flow and chose to withdraw the Day Returns a few years ago. The EMR priced Chesterfield/Alfreton/Nottingham super off peak tickets are very attractive to daytrippers especially with Groupsave available.

Northern choose to try and flog loads of bargain basement fares for both local and long distance journeys, many of whom wilfully or accidentally misunderstand their restrictions and board expresses and get smacked again for another fare for their trouble.

Northern Only tickets going in the bin would be a great start to the New World.

 

[yorksrob]

I've caught the 10:11 (I think) TPE service from Sheffield to Pic on several occasions over the past few months and the throng at Sheffield has looked increasingly busy. The six carriages have helped.

 

[bramling]

I think the remaining effect of furlough on work travel is near-negligible.

Agreed, I'd imagine most of the roles where people are still on furlough are unlikely to be ones associated with commuting. The point I was endeavouring to make was more that furlough could perhaps be providing some leisure journeys, which wouldn't otherwise be being made, simply by such people (as well as other groups) having more time on their hands than would have been the case.

This is why I'm rather sceptical of the idea which seems to float on here that the future of the railway is leisure - once everything settles down I don't think it will be, and in any case I'm not sure that's the most sensible base to build upon. The railway doesn't really do leisure well, look what happens when - for example - half of Nottingham decide they all went to get the 0900 Sprinter to Skegness, for example.

The railway excels with high-density commuter flows, which is what the roads generally don't cope with well. There's still plenty of scope to capture this market, even with stuff like working from home, but the industry (IMO) needs to focus on quality. The era of fleecing people with car park charges, and thinking that base standards of comfort will do, need to end.

 

[yorksrob]

Agreed, I'd imagine most of the roles where people are still on furlough are unlikely to be ones associated with commuting. The point I was endeavouring to make was more that furlough could perhaps be providing some leisure journeys, which wouldn't otherwise be being made, simply by such people (as well as other groups) having more time on their hands than would have been the case.

This is why I'm rather sceptical of the idea which seems to float on here that the future of the railway is leisure - once everything settles down I don't think it will be, and in any case I'm not sure that's the most sensible base to build upon. The railway doesn't really do leisure well, look what happens when - for example - half of Nottingham decide they all went to get the 0900 Sprinter to Skegness, for example.

The railway excels with high-density commuter flows, which is what the roads generally don't cope with well. There's still plenty of scope to capture this market, even with stuff like working from home, but the industry (IMO) needs to focus on quality. The era of fleecing people with car park charges, and thinking that base standards of comfort will do, need to end.

The railway does leisure well where flows are reasonably stable - the S&C, the Lake District, the south coast resorts.

Over the past few years, I've been moving towards a four day working week (which gives an extra day of rail based leisure )