How busy have your trains been?

[PTR 444]

The LSE TOCs are still carrying lots of fresh air in the peaks. The busy trains in that part of the world aren’t in the peak, generally.

How many school and college students commute by train? I’m sure that will affect the numbers in the coming weeks.

 

[Bald Rick]

How many school and college students commute by train? I’m sure that will affect the numbers in the coming weeks.

It’s about 5-10% of all commuting. Not much into central London, obviously. And their return is staggered over the next month.

 

[Purple Orange]

As a general observation, the trains I have been using in to Manchester this week have generally been half full on arriving at Piccadilly. All have been 319s or 769s. I do miss the 331s - these ex-London 1980s commuter trains are looking very tired.

 

[geoffk]

As a general observation, the trains I have been using in to Manchester this week have generally been half full on arriving at Piccadilly. All have been 319s or 769s. I do miss the 331s - these ex-London 1980s commuter trains are looking very tired.

Where have the 331s gone? I thought they were on Manchester - Blackpool services.

 

[Purple Orange]

Where have the 331s gone? I thought they were on Manchester - Blackpool services.

They are nipping about in service. Just they’re not on my route

 

[YorkshireBear]

Morning commute is still dead from Leeds to Manchester but the return is starting to have most of the seats taken with every double with 1 person in. Some standing to Stalybridge from those not wanting to sit next to people.

I've noticed my trains from Leeds to Keighley at weekends to be as busy as they always were before covid.

 

[Purple Orange]

Morning commute is still dead from Leeds to Manchester but the return is starting to have most of the seats taken with every double with 1 person in. Some standing to Stalybridge from those not wanting to sit next to people.

I've noticed my trains from Leeds to Keighley at weekends to be as busy as they always were before covid.

I think the morning commute will start to change again. My place of work is asking people to start returning to the office 50%-60% of time from September onwards and I can only assume that my employers are not going to be alone in this.

 

[YorkshireBear]

I think the morning commute will start to change again. My place of work is asking people to start returning to the office 50%-60% of time from September onwards and I can only assume that my employers are not going to be alone in this.

It varies but coming in 2-3 days per week from September seems to be a fairly universal request yes so I am expecting a bigger step up come 5th September.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Lots of Northern services are scheduled to be reinstated on the 6th thank God else their Twitter won't be able to cope.

 

[ValleyLines142]

9-car Azumas out of Edinburgh heading south were full on Monday. 11:30 from Edinburgh (07:55 ex-Inverness) was very well loaded, and I caught the 12:04 Inverkeithing to Edinburgh (09:52 ex-Aberdeen), and only just managed to find a seat after walking through 4 carriages - even then the seat I found was reserved from Edinburgh.

Probably down to Fringe festival.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

National rail use hit 62% of pre covid on the 13/14/15th of August, the highest levels since covid happened.

Lets hope this steady progress continues.

 

[greyman42]

I travelled on the 1614 from Ribblehead to Leeds yesterday. It was a 2 car 158 and was just about full from Ribblehead. Mask usage was very low.

 

[dk1]

National rail use hit 62% of pre covid on the 13/14/15th of August, the highest levels since covid happened.

Lets hope this steady progress continues.

Considering commuting is still to kick in that is an excellent figure. I think 76% quoted by several leading figures is very optimistic & will be easily beaten.

 

[yorksrob]

Lots of Northern services are scheduled to be reinstated on the 6th thank God else their Twitter won't be able to cope.

Sadly still no sign of the 10:19 Leeds to Morecambe, which is a travesty.

 

[davews]

Yesterday John Redwood's diary had an article on the railways where he claimed the trains are still largely air, saying official figures still show well below pre pandemic. I tried to correct him the comments and he dismissed my suggestions. Maybe a little down still but your suggested 62% or 76% is much nearer the mark, certainly not 'moving air around'.

Time to reset the railway – John Redwood's Diary

johnredwoodsdiary.com

Risking a couple of trips over the weekend which should be interesting with all the Reading festival crowd on them.

 

[yorksrob]

I wonder what train John Redwood's travelling on. Not the 10:49 Leeds to Carlisle today which was for carriages and very well loaded.

It shouldn't surprise us though. We all know that John Redwood's from Mars

(for youngsters that was a topical reference to his leadership challenge against John Major a few years ago).

 

[dk1]

Yesterday John Redwood's diary had an article on the railways where he claimed the trains are still largely air, saying official figures still show well below pre pandemic. I tried to correct him the comments and he dismissed my suggestions. Maybe a little down still but your suggested 62% or 76% is much nearer the mark, certainly not 'moving air around'.

Time to reset the railway – John Redwood's Diary

johnredwoodsdiary.com

Risking a couple of trips over the weekend which should be interesting with all the Reading festival crowd on them.

Is that the same Redwood who's in a grump about trains blowing their horns near his property?

 

[Killingworth]

I hate to say it because I used to disagree with a lot of what he said, but he's not far off the mark.

Commuting is not recovering to 2019 levels except maybe on a very few routes. Many are seeing levels nearer 22-36% than 62-76%. It's still school and university holidays. By October those figures will rise but with very many now planning to wfh at least 2 or 3 days a week I can't see commuting overall reaching over 75%, if that. Not for many years anyway.

Leisure is harder to predict. It's currently holding up very well and some lines are seeing up to and above 2019 figures. Local observation suggests a lot of them would normally have been abroad this month. Will they be back next year if air travel opens back up?

Finance is always going to be difficult and will be taxing many brains, and potentially pockets, for many years ahead.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

I hate to say it because I used to disagree with a lot of what he said, but he's not far off the mark.

Commuting is not recovering to 2019 levels except maybe on a very few routes. Many are seeing levels nearer 22-36% than 62-76%. It's still school and university holidays. By October those figures will rise but with very many now planning to wfh at least 2 or 3 days a week I can't see commuting overall reaching over 75%, if that. Not for many years anyway.

Leisure is harder to predict. It's currently holding up very well and some lines are seeing up to and above 2019 figures. Local observation suggests a lot of them would normally have been abroad this month. Will they be back next year if air travel opens back up?

Finance is always going to be difficult and will be taxing many brains, and potentially pockets, for many years ahead.

The 62% figures are dft official figures, so they are defintley the correct figures. And I think that guy is very far off the mark.

 

[yorksrob]

Any chance of someone quoting the article as I can't load the page at the moment.

 

[Killingworth]

H

The 62% figures are dft official figures, so they are defintley the correct figures. And I think that guy is very far off the mark.

Yes, thats correct. The DfT have recorded a daily maximum of 62% since pre-Covid, and it was on 3 consecutive days in mid August. Pre school holidays it was peaking around 54-55%. That would tend to back up the view that leisure is responsible for the current peaks at a time when commuting would normally be greatly subdued. Averaging high leisure with low commuting over maybe 6 weeks abd across the country may give a superficially rosy picture. For how long?

We won't really know until we see how September rolls forward into October. The figures are compiled daily and released about weekly. They'll still need treating with care as many older people will be taking late leisure breaks in the UK rather than abroad outside the school holidays.

 

[Bread & cheese]

Any chance of someone quoting the article as I can't load the page at the moment.

Time to reset the railway​

We cannot afford to spend around £10 bn a year subsidising the railway to run nearly empty trains around the country. Nor is it a green option to run diesels and electrics drawing some electricity from fossil fuels when they have so few people on them.

The railway management need to use the current lull in railway use to make two important sets of changes. The first is to establish new timetables geared to the big change in work patterns COVID policies have brought on. The railway is currently planned to earn much of its fares revenue from five day a week commuters wishing to travel at peak times. This business will be massively reduced. We need new flexible ticketing to allow people rolling and increasing discounts the more they travel the same route for work purposes. The railway is now trying to tempt many more people to travel by train for leisure. It is difficult to see why this should be highly subsidised as it is discretionary and is more likely to be taken up by the better off.

The second set of issues are based on technology. Modern trains can be more fully automated in ways which may enhance safety and certainly raise productivity. Safety must remain the prime consideration. Managements need to sort out with the Unions new manning arrangements that reflect business needs, timetable changes and train automation opportunities. There can be offers of no compulsory redundancies around programmes of change to get the workforce and its skills and job descriptions into line with new needs.

Doubtless many of you still think HS2 should be cancelled. There is no sign of the government wishing to do this, and it has now committed substantial resource to carving an expensive route out of London. I am not expecting a change of decision on the London to Birmingham part of this project.

Another article, this time from his local newspaper:

The commuter rebellion
Westminster Diary Sir John Redwood
Sir John Redwood is the MP for Wokingham

The Wokingham Paper
26 Aug 2021

MANY former commuters seem to be singing “I don’t want to go to work on a train in the rain” to adapt on old pop-song parody.

It seems increasingly clear that the Covid lockdowns have made something snap in many five-day-a-week train commuters' minds.

They have discovered they can do much of their job from home.

They have saved serious money on not buying season tickets.

Above all they have been spared the difficult local roads to the station, the fight for a car park place, and ticket, and the lottery of getting a seat on the train.

All that strain and worry has gone out of life.

On that busy office day will the train come on time?

On the morning when you need to meet the boss, will your train be delayed by leaves on the line or the late arrival of the train in front?

Will you get drenched walking from the station to the office?

Going home might you have one of those nightmare journeys when you are stuck in a stationary train for too long, ringing home to apologise and say you haven’t a clue when you will make it back.

Many commuters with all too many memories of late and cancelled trains, an absence of seats and a dearth of reliable information about what has gone wrong suddenly see the chance to duck out of many of those journeys and opt for a different working life.

It looks as if many offices will be adapted for hybrid working with many more people logging in remotely.

Employers who may prefer more to come and work in the office will decide that to keep some of the best talent they need to be flexible.

They will decide to downsize their floor space to get a property saving out of the change.

All this will knock a big hole in railway revenues. I will look at what government should do with the trains in a later post.

The commuter revolt is the result of poor and expensive services over many past years.

 

[yorksrob]

Having now been able to read the article, his point that train timetables need to be designed around modern working patterns is absolutely correct. The initial observations about empty trains are somewhat off the mark (unless there's a particular lack of passengers around Wokingham).

 

[bramling]

Having now been able to read the article, his point that train timetables need to be designed around modern working patterns is absolutely correct. The initial observations about empty trains are somewhat off the mark (unless there's a particular lack of passengers around Wokingham).

A starting point is the government actually making some kind of decision whether they're going to encourage employers to get people back to work or not.

My place apparently still has people who have been on furlough since March 2020, which I find incredible. If this is replicated in any great numbers across the board then this is a distortion. Certainly I can think of a handful who have been on furlough for the duration, and are now resigning or retiring.

There was a half-arsed "travel with confidence" push last summer, which I remain convinced was the main justification for masks on transport.

I don't see any value in making long-term decisions on what happens with rail services until there's some government leadership. A lot of businesses are still running under the cloud of "please bear with us, we are running under degraded circumstances", being nervous of asking people back to the office for fear of someone then catching Covid and having a bad outcome, and then potentially having to defend themselves as to whether they were following government guidance or not, which of course has been vague, conflicting and at times changing.

This is what happens when we have a PM who famously doesn't like detail, and being cynical it's been rather easier from a populist point of view to encourage a leisure-led revival as people will be happy when they're on Bournemouth beach, but not so happy having to line up to catch the 0730 to Waterloo. But this populist approach won't be sustainable in the medium or long term.

 

[yorksrob]

Time to reset the railway​

We cannot afford to spend around £10 bn a year subsidising the railway to run nearly empty trains around the country. Nor is it a green option to run diesels and electrics drawing some electricity from fossil fuels when they have so few people on them.

The railway management need to use the current lull in railway use to make two important sets of changes. The first is to establish new timetables geared to the big change in work patterns COVID policies have brought on. The railway is currently planned to earn much of its fares revenue from five day a week commuters wishing to travel at peak times. This business will be massively reduced. We need new flexible ticketing to allow people rolling and increasing discounts the more they travel the same route for work purposes. The railway is now trying to tempt many more people to travel by train for leisure. It is difficult to see why this should be highly subsidised as it is discretionary and is more likely to be taken up by the better off.

The second set of issues are based on technology. Modern trains can be more fully automated in ways which may enhance safety and certainly raise productivity. Safety must remain the prime consideration. Managements need to sort out with the Unions new manning arrangements that reflect business needs, timetable changes and train automation opportunities. There can be offers of no compulsory redundancies around programmes of change to get the workforce and its skills and job descriptions into line with new needs.

Doubtless many of you still think HS2 should be cancelled. There is no sign of the government wishing to do this, and it has now committed substantial resource to carving an expensive route out of London. I am not expecting a change of decision on the London to Birmingham part of this project.

Another article, this time from his local newspaper:

The commuter rebellion
Westminster Diary Sir John Redwood
Sir John Redwood is the MP for Wokingham

The Wokingham Paper
26 Aug 2021

MANY former commuters seem to be singing “I don’t want to go to work on a train in the rain” to adapt on old pop-song parody.

It seems increasingly clear that the Covid lockdowns have made something snap in many five-day-a-week train commuters' minds.

They have discovered they can do much of their job from home.

They have saved serious money on not buying season tickets.

Above all they have been spared the difficult local roads to the station, the fight for a car park place, and ticket, and the lottery of getting a seat on the train.

All that strain and worry has gone out of life.

On that busy office day will the train come on time?

On the morning when you need to meet the boss, will your train be delayed by leaves on the line or the late arrival of the train in front?

Will you get drenched walking from the station to the office?

Going home might you have one of those nightmare journeys when you are stuck in a stationary train for too long, ringing home to apologise and say you haven’t a clue when you will make it back.

Many commuters with all too many memories of late and cancelled trains, an absence of seats and a dearth of reliable information about what has gone wrong suddenly see the chance to duck out of many of those journeys and opt for a different working life.

It looks as if many offices will be adapted for hybrid working with many more people logging in remotely.

Employers who may prefer more to come and work in the office will decide that to keep some of the best talent they need to be flexible.

They will decide to downsize their floor space to get a property saving out of the change.

All this will knock a big hole in railway revenues. I will look at what government should do with the trains in a later post.

The commuter revolt is the result of poor and expensive services over many past years.

Thanks for posting the longer article.

I see the old Conservative ploy of blaming the industry for decades of government decisions is coming back.

My key concern with all of this is that the inevitable reduction in South East commuters isn't used as an excuse to justify a reduction in regional services. I wonder what Mr Redwoods longer term view will look like.

 

[Ken H]

WFH wont go away now. Employer says 'please come back to the office'
Employee says 'why, what has been wrong with my work since April 2020?', to which there is no real answer.
Also, many employers will be looking at the cost savings not running large offices. Costs like rent, heating and lighting, cleaning, coffee machines etc.

 

[The Ham]

Time to reset the railway​

We cannot afford to spend around £10 bn a year subsidising the railway to run nearly empty trains around the country. Nor is it a green option to run diesels and electrics drawing some electricity from fossil fuels when they have so few people on them.

The railway management need to use the current lull in railway use to make two important sets of changes. The first is to establish new timetables geared to the big change in work patterns COVID policies have brought on. The railway is currently planned to earn much of its fares revenue from five day a week commuters wishing to travel at peak times. This business will be massively reduced. We need new flexible ticketing to allow people rolling and increasing discounts the more they travel the same route for work purposes. The railway is now trying to tempt many more people to travel by train for leisure. It is difficult to see why this should be highly subsidised as it is discretionary and is more likely to be taken up by the better off.

The second set of issues are based on technology. Modern trains can be more fully automated in ways which may enhance safety and certainly raise productivity. Safety must remain the prime consideration. Managements need to sort out with the Unions new manning arrangements that reflect business needs, timetable changes and train automation opportunities. There can be offers of no compulsory redundancies around programmes of change to get the workforce and its skills and job descriptions into line with new needs.

Doubtless many of you still think HS2 should be cancelled. There is no sign of the government wishing to do this, and it has now committed substantial resource to carving an expensive route out of London. I am not expecting a change of decision on the London to Birmingham part of this project.

Another article, this time from his local newspaper:

The commuter rebellion
Westminster Diary Sir John Redwood
Sir John Redwood is the MP for Wokingham

The Wokingham Paper
26 Aug 2021

MANY former commuters seem to be singing “I don’t want to go to work on a train in the rain” to adapt on old pop-song parody.

It seems increasingly clear that the Covid lockdowns have made something snap in many five-day-a-week train commuters' minds.

They have discovered they can do much of their job from home.

They have saved serious money on not buying season tickets.

Above all they have been spared the difficult local roads to the station, the fight for a car park place, and ticket, and the lottery of getting a seat on the train.

All that strain and worry has gone out of life.

On that busy office day will the train come on time?

On the morning when you need to meet the boss, will your train be delayed by leaves on the line or the late arrival of the train in front?

Will you get drenched walking from the station to the office?

Going home might you have one of those nightmare journeys when you are stuck in a stationary train for too long, ringing home to apologise and say you haven’t a clue when you will make it back.

Many commuters with all too many memories of late and cancelled trains, an absence of seats and a dearth of reliable information about what has gone wrong suddenly see the chance to duck out of many of those journeys and opt for a different working life.

It looks as if many offices will be adapted for hybrid working with many more people logging in remotely.

Employers who may prefer more to come and work in the office will decide that to keep some of the best talent they need to be flexible.

They will decide to downsize their floor space to get a property saving out of the change.

All this will knock a big hole in railway revenues. I will look at what government should do with the trains in a later post.

The commuter revolt is the result of poor and expensive services over many past years.

First up £10bn in subsidy appears high, given that even allowing for £4bn of enhancements a year that would still require a total fall of a little more than 50% of ticket sales.

I don't doubt that commuters will be happy to reduce their travel (and therefore their costs). However the move from 5 day travel had been ongoing for some time.

In 2019 season tickets accounted for about 20% of ticket sales, whilst advanced tickets accounted for about 17%. As such, although the royal lots of any type of ticket income would have an impact, the importance of season ticket sales appears to be over stated.

It's also worth noting that even WFH 3 days a week wouldn't have a significant impact on rail income as season tickets provide significant discounts, so that the cost of 2 return any time tickets a week is often only a small reduction compared to season tickets.

WFH wont go away now. Employer says 'please come back to the office'
Employee says 'why, what has been wrong with my work since April 2020?', to which there is no real answer.
Also, many employers will be looking at the cost savings not running large offices. Costs like rent, heating and lighting, cleaning, coffee machines etc.

My work at home is fine, however having fine back to the office there's lots which is better. For example incidental conversations or being able to support more junior staff (or if you're the junior staff being supported).

As such many would likely to benefit from being in the office some of the time.

 

[Starmill]

My key concern with all of this is that the inevitable reduction in South East commuters isn't used as an excuse to justify a reduction in regional services.

That's in essence exactly what's going to happen, on cost grounds. Indeed it has already begun with some "emergency" timetables being made quasi-permenent, and the ScotRail proposals.

 

[yorksrob]

That's in essence exactly what's going to happen, on cost grounds. Indeed it has already begun with some "emergency" timetables being made quasi-permenent, and the ScotRail proposals.

Thats why those of us in the region's need to make it a political issue. We can't tolerate such happening while we supposed to be levelling up !

 

[Peter Mugridge]

In 2019 season tickets accounted for about 20% of ticket sales, whilst advanced tickets accounted for about 17%. As such, although the royal lots of any type of ticket income would have an impact, the importance of season ticket sales appears to be over stated.

I agree, and that's before we even consider the heavy discounts a season ticket offers over a daily ticket.