How does Waterloo only get 60 million passengers yet each SWR train I get is packed like sardines?

[Bald Rick]

No one has mentioned the strikes yet.

The latest figures from ORR are for 2022/23, which covers the main time of the ‘national’ dispute. SWR ran a reduced service, and sometimes no trains at all, on about 15-20 days of strike action in that year. Add in the impact of overtime bans etc (where SWR run a slightly reduced service) and that will have affected the annual total by about 5%

 

[Krokodil]

To be fair, regularly only means at regular intervals. If the intervals are ever 10 years, so be it...

True, it doesn't say "frequent". Even so, society has changed drastically in the last few years so it's about time that the document was reviewed to consider changes in behaviour.

 

[Goldfish62]

Season ticket holders pay significantly less per journey than people buying individual tickets for the same journey. So if passenger numbers are down 15–20% and passengers are no longer buying season tickets then that should have less of an impact on revenue, not more!

Well it doesn't, unless you're saying the industry, every economist and the government have got their assumptions wrong. It's been stated time and time again that the reason that revenue is down more than passenger numbers is due to the decline in annual season ticket and business travel revenue with the former having the greater impact. And it makes perfect sense because with an annual season a substantial annual payment is being made in advance for 40 weeks, 5 days a week of travel charged at the full unrestricted open return price. Instead now travel is typically 1-3 times a week, if at all, excluding annual leave and sickness, with not always full open returns, especially where people choose to travel in after AM peak restrictions end, or where they buy an peak single into work and an off peak single back home (this works for me).

 

[ThameslinkUser]

And it makes perfect sense because with an annual season a substantial annual payment is being made in advance for 40 weeks, 5 days a week of travel charged at the full unrestricted open return price. Instead now travel is typically 1-3 times a week, if at all, excluding annual leave and sickness, with not always full open returns, especially where people choose to travel in after AM peak restrictions end, or where they buy an peak single into work and an off peak single back home (this works for me).

The clear answer to this is to scrap off peak tickets.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Well it doesn't, unless you're saying the industry, every economist and the government have got their assumptions wrong. It's been stated time and time again that the reason that revenue is down more than passenger numbers is due to the decline in annual season ticket and business travel revenue with the former having the greater impact. And it makes perfect sense because with an annual season a substantial annual payment is being made in advance for 40 weeks, 5 days a week of travel charged at the full unrestricted open return price.

That's just false. On most routes, a return journey on a season based on 5 return journeys a week typically costs the same as or very slightly more than the cheapest tier of off peak return/Travelcard.

The issue is simply people not travelling as often. Payment up front just gives the railway a "safe" income and a piddling little bit of interest on the money, but not a significant amount.

However this fact should allow railways to implement simpler, all-week timetables with less peakiness (as found in most places outside the South East where Mon-Fri is similar to or identical to Saturday), which saves a little money. I find it interesting that some (e.g. WMT) haven't, and have gone for peak extras instead of lengthening!

 

[norbitonflyer]

The issue is simply people not travelling as often. Payment up front just gives the railway a "safe" income and a piddling little bit of interest on the money, but not a significant amount.

It also reduces overheads, as the railway only needs to print and sell one ticket a year instead of 200-plus. Before contactless, this was a huge saving in booking office costs (including staff)

 

[coppercapped]

Well it doesn't, unless you're saying the industry, every economist and the government have got their assumptions wrong. It's been stated time and time again that the reason that revenue is down more than passenger numbers is due to the decline in annual season ticket and business travel revenue with the former having the greater impact. And it makes perfect sense because with an annual season a substantial annual payment is being made in advance for 40 weeks, 5 days a week of travel charged at the full unrestricted open return price. Instead now travel is typically 1-3 times a week, if at all, excluding annual leave and sickness, with not always full open returns, especially where people choose to travel in after AM peak restrictions end, or where they buy an peak single into work and an off peak single back home (this works for me).

I see Bletchleyite has got here more quickly than I have and I have to agree with him.

To give a concrete example, an anytime day return from Maidenhead to Paddington costs £28.30. Allowing for a 2 day weekend and annual holidays the average traveller will make the journey some 200 times a year making a total annual expenditure of £5660. An annual season ticket for the same journey costs £3868. This is very close to the cost of buying 200 off-peak tickets at £15.60 each which comes to £3120.

A season ticket used 5 days a week gives the user peak time travel at off-peak prices.

 

[43066]

An annual season ticket for the same journey costs £3868. This is very close to the cost of buying 200 off-peak tickets at £15.60 each which comes to £3120.

A season ticket used 5 days a week gives the user peak time travel at off-peak prices.

On these figures the season ticket would result in £748 more revenue than five off peak season tickets per week (ie around 24% more), so your last sentence is shown to be incorrect!

It’s obviously cheaper per journey than paying for five anytime singles owe week (which nobody was doing), but even travelling five days per week off peak is cheaper than buying a season ticket, and many will be doing less. Hence the loss of revenue for a given number of passengers since pre Covid.

 

[Bletchleyite]

On these figures the season ticket would result in £748 more revenue than five off peak season tickets per week (ie around 24% more), so your last sentence is shown to be incorrect!

It's close enough. The point is that a season ticket is, in the South East, nowhere near the cost of five Anytime Day Returns a week on any route I can think of.

 

[43066]

It's close enough. The point is that a season ticket is, in the South East, nowhere near the cost of five Anytime Day Returns a week on any route I can think of.

The point surely is that a season ticket allowing five day per week travel still banked 25% more revenue upfront, than the same pattern done off peak over the year.

Nobody was ever paying for five peak time returns per week, as they’d simply have bought a season ticket!

 

[Bletchleyite]

The point surely is that a season ticket allowing five day per week travel still banked 25% more revenue upfront, than the same pattern done off peak over the year.

I can't imagine many people just do five off peak journeys who didn't before unless they've switched to shift work. It's generally about a reduction to Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays (with its amusing acronym) and the likes.

The railway did miss the bus (!) a bit by making flexi seasons such utterly poor value. For me an Anytime Day Single in and a Railcard discounted one back undercuts it substantially. Even more so if I stay for a couple of pints and the return is an Off Peak.

 

[43066]

I can't imagine many people just do five off peak journeys who didn't before unless they've switched to shift work. It's generally about a reduction to Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays (with its amusing acronym) and the likes.

Pre pandemic people were often already only doing a four day week in the office (based on long weekends, one day working from home etc.) but the requirement to travel at peak times meant they’d often still buy a season ticket for convenience, even if it only just about broke even in terms of savings.

Post pandemic, with people doing three days per week or less, and able to travel off peak, they will pivot towards paying for those journeys piecemeal en masse, hence the drop in upfront revenue and a lot less paid over the year. Obviously operators such as SWR were especially vulnerable to this. As more people are expected to return to the office, hopefully season tickets will once again begin to look attractive.

Re. the last paragraph, I agree, but I had understood the DfT were reluctant to allow significant reform of ticketing for fear of strangling what revenue remains. As you say a growth oriented approach would have been to allow creative, good value options to get people back into the habit of regular travel more quickly.

 

[norbitonflyer]

The point surely is that a season ticket allowing five day per week travel still banked 25% more revenue upfront, than the same pattern done off peak over the year.

Nobody was ever paying for five peak time returns per week, as they’d simply have bought a season ticket!

There might have been some, if they couldn't afford the up-front payment (Terry Pratchett's "Vimes' boots theory"), although most would be buying weekly or monthly tickets instead.

There are also an increasing number of people, in London at least, who are still working but qualify for free travel after 0900 or 0930 (depending on operator), because they are over 60. Thus, even if working a five day week, they only need to pay for five journeys, albeit they are all at peak rate.

 

[Craig1122]

Plenty of examples in SWR land where the annual season price for each journey is below even the off peak return. For example an annual from Guildford to Waterloo is £4516. Assuming 6 weeks off work that's less than £20 a day as compared to the off peak return at £26. So the idea the railway has lost people who were paying the 'full' peak fare on a season ticket has always been a bit of a fallacy (Despite how often it has been repeated!). The loss of revenue is clearly as much a function of those people making substantially fewer journeys. And of course unlike when you've paid for a season up front each day you can work from home represents a substantial saving.

Another factor is the industrial action. I've not renewed my season because the reduced timetable on overtime ban days makes my commute unviable by train. Yet I can't claim a refund for those days thanks to the "timetable of the day" changes to the conditions of carriage. Note that under the pre delay repay regime each of those days would have likely triggered a full refund automatically.

 

[43066]

There might have been some, if they couldn't afford the up-front payment (Terry Pratchett's "Vimes' boots theory"), although most would be buying weekly or monthly tickets instead.

That would have been better for the revenue position if used for the same number of journeys in place of an annual season ticket, of course.

So the idea the railway has lost people who were paying the 'full' peak fare on a season ticket has always been a bit of a fallacy (Despite how often it has been repeated!).

I don’t think anyone has ever suggested people who buy season tickets pay the full peak fare! In many cases the season ticket revenue will exceed the revenue from the same number of journeys made with off peak tickets, though.

The biggest change is likely the ability to travel off peak, as even three peak time journeys per week at peak time can make a season ticket start to look attractive once you factor in convenience.

 

[Horizon22]

On these figures the season ticket would result in £748 more revenue than five off peak season tickets per week (ie around 24% more), so your last sentence is shown to be incorrect!

It’s obviously cheaper per journey than paying for five anytime singles owe week (which nobody was going), but even travelling five days per week off peak is cheaper than buying a season ticket, and many will be doing less. Hence the loss of revenue for a given number of passengers since pre Covid.

Yes, but also the fact that an off-peak ticket won't be getting you to your office before 1000, which might be acceptable to some employers but not many, even in the new post-Covid workplace.

The main issue is that it's not that 10 people who were doing full seasons tickets are now 10 people doing the same journey 2-4 times a week on anytime tickets (which might just about balance), it's that it is often only 7-8 people instead. With a noticeable change on the Monday or Friday which might be only 6 people.

The change in passenger demand since 2020 is not uniform across peak, off-peak, super off-peak, Monday-Friday or weekend, or leisure, school, business or commuter travel and certainly not geographically.

 

[Krokodil]

Someone travelling from Basingstoke to London might pay £140pw with a season ticket. Even travelling in on only three days a week, it's still considerably cheaper than buying Anytime Day Returns (3 * £59 = £177). So no income lost to the railway on that flow.

From Gerrard's Cross, a season is £83pw. Anytime Day Returns are 3 * £23.40 = £70.20. So on that flow the railway is only down 15%, despite the passenger's journeys being down 40%.

From Tring, the season is £132.10pw. Anytime Day Returns are 3 * £30.80 = £92.40. Loss to the railway therefore is 30%.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Are SWR not doing £5-10 Advances from the larger towns into Waterloo? That would be much cheaper than season tickets.

 

[coppercapped]

That would have been better for the revenue position if used for the same number of journeys in place of an annual season ticket, of course.

I don’t think anyone has ever suggested people who buy season tickets pay the full peak fare! In many cases the season ticket revenue will exceed the revenue from the same number of journeys made with off peak tickets, though.

But the sentence in bold is exactly the point I was replying to in my post. In post #93 Goldfish62 wrote:

Well it doesn't, unless you're saying the industry, every economist and the government have got their assumptions wrong. It's been stated time and time again that the reason that revenue is down more than passenger numbers is due to the decline in annual season ticket and business travel revenue with the former having the greater impact. And it makes perfect sense because with an annual season a substantial annual payment is being made in advance for 40 weeks, 5 days a week of travel charged at the full unrestricted open return price. Instead now travel is typically 1-3 times a week, if at all, excluding annual leave and sickness, with not always full open returns, especially where people choose to travel in after AM peak restrictions end, or where they buy an peak single into work and an off peak single back home (this works for me).

I was relying to the part in bold as this statement is quite simply not true and I gave a simple example to underline my point. The subsequent nit-picking about nominal differences between possible payments between off-peak and annual season tickets simply shows that the context in which I wrote my post was ignored.

'Twas always so on social media...

The biggest change is likely the ability to travel off peak, as even three peak time journeys per week at peak time can make a season ticket start to look attractive once you factor in convenience.

 

[Craig1122]

But the sentence in bold is exactly the point I was replying to in my post. In post #93 Goldfish62 wrote:


I was relying to the part in bold as this statement is quite simply not true and I gave a simple example to underline my point. The subsequent nit-picking about nominal differences between possible payments between off-peak and annual season tickets simply shows that the context in which I wrote my post was ignored.

'Twas always so on social media...

I've also seen the same claim made by a number of more official sources as well as in commentary on the issue.

Are SWR not doing £5-10 Advances from the larger towns into Waterloo? That would be much cheaper than season tickets.

While it's true they've got a greater number of advance fares than has historically been the case the lowest prices aren't available on early trains. In fact they came in for quite a bit of criticism on social media for removing them. For example looking at the end of May from Portsmouth there's a £15 advance but arrival is after 1000 at Waterloo. There's a £9.70 fare but arrival on that wouldn't be until around 1500.

 

[quartile]

Someone travelling from Basingstoke to London might pay £140pw with a season ticket. Even travelling in on only three days a week, it's still considerably cheaper than buying Anytime Day Returns (3 * £59 = £177). So no income lost to the railway on that flow.

From Gerrard's Cross, a season is £83pw. Anytime Day Returns are 3 * £23.40 = £70.20. So on that flow the railway is only down 15%, despite the passenger's journeys being down 40%.

From Tring, the season is £132.10pw. Anytime Day Returns are 3 * £30.80 = £92.40. Loss to the railway therefore is 30%.

From Basingstoke it's cheaper to buy two anytime singles and use a network card on the return journey - just under £50 return - this brings it down to much closer to the weekly season ticket.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

This whole season ticket Vs non season ticket revenue is based on a false premise that just because you buy one, doesn't mean you travel 5 days a week. I'm sure some passengers would buy them pre-pandemic for convenience if they traveled 4 or even 3 days a week regularly (with the occasional 4 days) but since COVID 3 days a week is seen as a maximum as opposed to a minimum so then the mindset is to buy returns. In reality we still haven't settled to a final outcome of WFH vs WFO as for example I'm 2 days a week but the latest suggestion is more than 50% of time in the office so 3 days and then I'd be back looking at Season tickets once again if that becomes the minimum expectation.

Revenue wise the gap really to make up now is the inflation for the years since the pandemic as in nominal terms the revenue between 90 and 100% Pre pandemic.

 

[Class 170101]

The railway did miss the bus (!) a bit by making flexi seasons such utterly poor value. For me an Anytime Day Single in and a Railcard discounted one back undercuts it substantially. Even more so if I stay for a couple of pints and the return is an Off Peak.

Unfortunately as said by @43066

Re. the last paragraph, I agree, but I had understood the DfT were reluctant to allow significant reform of ticketing for fear of strangling what revenue remains. As you say a growth oriented approach would have been to allow creative, good value options to get people back into the habit of regular travel more quickly.

I don't think this is a railway failing but a DfT and Treasury failing for not allowing the railways to innovate.

The biggest loss I always thought was the business traveller market how much of that has returned if any?

 

[Starmill]

Are SWR not doing £5-10 Advances from the larger towns into Waterloo? That would be much cheaper than season tickets.

Not really? Where might you have had in mind?

 

[Bald Rick]

The biggest loss I always thought was the business traveller market how much of that has returned if any?

Less than half. But it was by far and away the smallest segment (Leisure is highest and 5 x the size, closely followed by commuting). Also business travel is seeing much higher growth than the other segments. Leisure is essentially flat now, whilst commuting is double digit growth, mostly driven by London.

 

[43066]

Also business travel is seeing much higher growth than the other segments. Leisure is essentially flat now, whilst commuting is double digit growth, mostly driven by London.

They’re flooding back in their hordes, that’s for sure. Incredible how things have picked up this year, in particular. Especially passengers from market segments we were assured were dead forever not so very long ago.

 

[Class 170101]

Less than half. But it was by far and away the smallest segment (Leisure is highest and 5 x the size, closely followed by commuting). Also business travel is seeing much higher growth than the other segments. Leisure is essentially flat now, whilst commuting is double digit growth, mostly driven by London.

But Leisure fares are at the cheaper end whilst Business fares pay more of the open fares? How is one balancing against the other.

 

[Bald Rick]

But Leisure fares are at the cheaper end whilst Business fares pay more of the open fares? How is one balancing against the other.

Lesiure is 5 x Business in revenue terms.

 

[Hadders]

It's close enough. The point is that a season ticket is, in the South East, nowhere near the cost of five Anytime Day Returns a week on any route I can think of.

Try Stevenage to London Terminals.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Try Stevenage to London Terminals.

5 x Anytime Day Return = £138
Weekly season = £117.30

It's not *that* close. And a longer season would be cheaper still.