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How does Waterloo only get 60 million passengers yet each SWR train I get is packed like sardines?

43066

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Revenue wise the gap really to make up now is the inflation for the years since the pandemic as in nominal terms the revenue between 90 and 100% Pre pandemic.

In relation to this, the government did of course decide in 2023 to increase fares by less than the rate of inflation, in marked contrast to the longstanding policy of the last couple of decades.

Whether that is right or wrong is another discussion, but it does make the gap look worse than it would otherwise, given the incredibly high rate of inflation at the time.
 
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Hadders

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5 x Anytime Day Return = £138
Weekly season = £117.30

It's not *that* close. And a longer season would be cheaper still.
The weekly is 4.25 times the Anytime Day Return, much higher than many other ratios.
 

infobleep

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Lesiure is 5 x Business in revenue terms.
If lesiure is x5 business, is it still not producing enough revenue for there to be two fast trains from Guildford to Clapham Junction, most hours Monday to Saturday?

I know I keep mentioning it. It's my hobby horse. :D
 

Recessio

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There's still large variations between the different weekdays. Tuesday's 08:53 Guildford-Waterloo was full and standing, very nearly had people left behind on the platform. Meanwhile Friday's 08:53 Guildford-Waterloo had plenty of seats left.
 

JonathanH

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Germany hasn't gone bankrupt yet.
No, but it doesn't have anything like the debt to GDP and import issue that the UK has. The UK can only afford to import as much as it does by basically selling up everything to overseas buyers.
 

yorksrob

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No, but it doesn't have anything like the debt to GDP and import issue that the UK has. The UK can only afford to import as much as it does by basically selling up everything to overseas buyers.

I've been saying on this forum for years that we import too much. It's a self-fulfilling prophesy as well because the more that's sold abroad, the more wealth's siphoned off. That's laissez-faire economics for you.
 

Goldfish62

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Relevant to this discussion, news from a friend who works in inner London. Currently staff are allowed to work from home up to 4 days a week, coming into the office only once. From September all this ends and staff will be required to come into the office a full 5 days a week, no exceptions apart from those already on contractual flexible working agreements.

If this is replicated even to a modest extent elsewhere then it has to be good news for the railways, although I'm not sure that SWR would be able to cope with any increase in passenger numbers mid-week.
 

hwl

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Relevant to this discussion, news from a friend who works in inner London. Currently staff are allowed to work from home up to 4 days a week, coming into the office only once. From September all this ends and staff will be required to come into the office a full 5 days a week, no exceptions apart from those already on contractual flexible working agreements.

If this is replicated even to a modest extent elsewhere then it has to be good news for the railways, although I'm not sure that SWR would be able to cope with any increase in passenger numbers mid-week.
Other firms differ - the other half employer only has desk space for 3-4 days a week in the office max. Some have to be in 5 days a week which means the other are only in 2-3 days at most.

Agreed on potential SWR issues and no substitute for more and /or longer train including getting the 701s in full service. DfT won't be happy with this prospect.
 

Goldfish62

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Other firms differ - the other half employer only has desk space for 3-4 days a week in the office max. Some have to be in 5 days a week which means the other are only in 2-3 days at most.
Yes, of course I appreciate that other firms differ but my point was that for this one how many others are there that are considering a reversal of the past few years working practices?

And you're right - I don't think SWR/DfT will be happy if it means having to increase capacity.
 

Kite159

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Yes, of course I appreciate that other firms differ but my point was that for this one how many others are there that are considering a reversal of the past few years working practices?

And you're right - I don't think SWR/DfT will be happy if it means having to increase capacity.
All depends if the company didn't downsize their London offices to save money, ie dropping from leasing 2 floors in a office block to just the 1. There will be some companies who can't return to the pre Covid era of everybody in the office 5 days a week as they haven't got the office space.

And of course those workers could simply decide to switch jobs from a 'you must come into the office 5 days a week' to one more flexible
 

Goldfish62

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All depends if the company didn't downsize their London offices to save money, ie dropping from leasing 2 floors in a office block to just the 1. There will be some companies who can't return to the pre Covid era of everybody in the office 5 days a week as they haven't got the office space.

And of course those workers could simply decide to switch jobs from a 'you must come into the office 5 days a week' to one more flexible
Just to repeat (again!), I am not suggesting that this will apply to every company! After all plenty allowed hybrid working before Covid.

And those who leave due to the 5 days a week in the office rule will simply be replaced.
 

hwl

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Yes, of course I appreciate that other firms differ but my point was that for this one how many others are there that are considering a reversal of the past few years working practices?
Most of what I hearing is much more moderate.
This is the first week I'll be in the office for two days in very long time. (I do a lot of client interaction)
And you're right - I don't think SWR/DfT will be happy if it means having to increase capacity.
The firms mostly likely to insist on a more maximal return won't be flexible which will make the SWR challenge harder.
In reality like many other issues I suspect the government does want to commit to spending as that affects the OBR view on room for future tax cut promises.
At least 4 routes will need +2tph and this will need partial 701 roll out and utilisation of some 458s post refurb to enable more 12car 450 running elsewhere. But this would mean DfT agreeing to spend money, do they reckon they can survive 4-5 more months of complaints via MPs (many soon to be ex MPs)?

So far return to London offices seems to have been higher on average the closer to central London that workers live which isn't great for operator revenue especially when then compared to the cost of providing those services.

One thing that hasn't come up in the tread is changes for parents - many needed the high frequency services with trains at the key times to make things work, many of those trains have gone and schools now often have shorter later drop off windows and /or pre school clubs don't start early enough for current train times.
 

Jamesrob637

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The weekly is 4.25 times the Anytime Day Return, much higher than many other ratios.

It was generally seen that, without Advances, 4 days a week in the office travelling in the peak at least one way would justify a weekly/monthly.
 

deltic

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Southwestern Railway were 25% down in terms of passenger journeys between Oct-Dec 2023 compared to Oct-Dec 2019 with capacity reduced by 9%

Across all operators, ORR data shows that comparing revenue in Oct-Dec 2023 with Oct-Dec 2019, season ticket revenue is down £447m, anytime/peak down £155m, off peak £62m and advance by £3m. Pre-COVID season tickets accounted for about 20% of revenue compared to 8% now.
 

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