How does Waterloo only get 60 million passengers yet each SWR train I get is packed like sardines?

[RailWonderer]

Passenger numbers being down 40 million does highlight the damage Covid and it's related restrictions have done to the railways and why the powers that be are so keen on saving money.

If passenger numbers are down 40% why not cut services and save money?

 

[Wokingham]

very true although if possible without turnbacks etc and a new curve are new services not being introduced i dont know the infostructure but could some semi fasts not be introduced someone saw the vauxhall stop useful with 701s and skipping stops could wokingham and bracknell get a better service in the peak

 

[Craig1122]

If passenger numbers are down 40% why not cut services and save money?

Because the railway has very high fixed costs. Increasing frequency attracts more passengers, cutting it has the opposite effect. So the more you cut the more passenger numbers will fall and those high fixed costs end up spread between fewer & fewer people.

Cutting services that are "extra" above the base timetable makes sense where possible because they're very expensive to run. It also makes sense to look at train length and make sure they match demand. But the current timetable that has seen services halved at many stations won't get passengers back travelling.

 

[Goldfish62]

If passenger numbers are down 40% why not cut services and save money?

Passenger numbers are not 40% down. They're about 15-20% down. Revenue is down further because the majority of the decline is due to the loss of high yield annual season ticket revenue.

Those that still commute now rely more on day tickets. That of course also impacts weekend travel, because if they, for example, work in London, and wanted to visit for the weekend their travel would be free. Now they have to buy another ticket, or travel by other means.

Because the railway has very high fixed costs. Increasing frequency attracts more passengers, cutting it has the opposite effect. So the more you cut the more passenger numbers will fall and those high fixed costs end up spread between fewer & fewer people.

Cutting services that are "extra" above the base timetable makes sense where possible because they're very expensive to run. It also makes sense to look at train length and make sure they match demand. But the current timetable that has seen services halved at many stations won't get passengers back travelling.

Absolutely.

I saw quoted somewhere, Modern Railways perhaps, that you'd have to cut 40% of services to save 10% of costs. That of course would lead to a spiral of decline, further putting off passengers and decreasing revenue yet further.

 

[Ken H]

With home working, people do the first hour at home before setting off to the office. Then they leave the office early and make up the time at home later. Or even on the train. That means the can use cheaper off peak tickets thus hittint railway revenue. My last boss worked exactly like that.

 

[Snow1964]

The problem SWR has is that its passengers travel further and consequently don't want to spend time or money travelling into work in an office if they don't have to. In many cases, they will have established a better work life balance as a result. People travelling shorter distances may not have the choice as they may not work in roles which are conducive to working from home, and don't have to invest so much time and money in travelling.

SWR splits its market into two, the inner suburban (to roughly 15 miles out) and the outer commuting. It is true the latter category often works from home Monday and Friday (but goes in 3 days a week).

The other category should have recovered but SWR has been effectively not encouraging them back : promising new air conditioned trains since 2019 (5 years later, still not in service); cutting some 15 minute interval services to half hourly (killing off turn up and go), cutting 10 car trains with seats to crowded shorter trains etc.

There is a third group, generally 10-20 miles out which is not as far out as those with big houses and rooms set up for home working. There has been no attempt to tempt this group back either. Generally stations in this group see much slower services than in 1980s. The reason is the trains to the now struggling outer commuting were speeded up and took over most of the fast paths. SWR has made no attempt to add some of these stations back to quick services to encourage demand to return. Places like Staines, Walton, Cobham still have slower services than in 1980s and early 1990s even though fewer trains are now being run so the argument of resilience over speed is very weak now.

 

[43066]

I saw quoted somewhere, Modern Railways perhaps, that you'd have to cut 40% of services to save 10% of costs. That of course would lead to a spiral of decline, further putting off passengers and decreasing revenue yet further.

Indeed. Of course there are a few posters on here who seem to want exactly that!

 

[simonw]

Cuts in evening services will also have made threats visits etc in London less attractive as people are faced with potential long waits for a train home and sometimes slower services as on some routes stopping and fast services have been 'merged' later in the evening.

Do many people catch the train into London just to threaten someone?

 

[dk1]

Indeed. Of course there are a few posters on here who seem to want exactly that!

Ive sort of noticed that with some. Very strange attitude indeed but I suppose we all see things differently.

 

[Goldfish62]

Indeed. Of course there are a few posters on here who seem to want exactly that!

Yes, I've noticed that as well!

 

[Craig1122]

Do many people catch the train into London just to threaten someone?

Doh! Theatre! Although I'm not sure your option can entirely be ruled out!!

 

[infobleep]

Depends how you define full service. There shouldn't be a presumption that the service which operated in 2020 is the "full service" now.

Fewer services run now than in 2020, but the full 2024 service is running.

The full off-peak service in 2024 on the Portsmouth Direct is two trains an hour from Waterloo to Portsmouth Harbour, one faster than the other, and a third service from Waterloo to Haslemere.

In 2020, demand justified two faster services to Portsmouth Harbour, a slower service to Portsmouth & Southsea, and a Haslemere terminator.

If now is the full service then I would like to see the timetable recast so that there could be two fast trains an hour from Guildford to Clapham Junction or if a change at Woking is still required, for it not to be a 20 minute wait, sometimes longer.

If Covid hadn't happened, Tuesday to Thursday trains would've still been as busy as ever but Mondays and Fridays would've been a lot quieter overall. Covid didn't start WFH and the "Tango Whisky Alpha Tango" trend, it merely accelerated it. Hard, admittedly.



Commuters have returned, but predominantly midweek.

Perhaps they need to strengthen the trains only on certain days of the week.

 

[Horizon22]

I couldn't see it - apologies if it was posted - but I'm surprised nobody has mentioned Clapham Junction.

A decent number of people aren't going to Waterloo, which doesn't show in the figures the OP posted.

 

[dk1]

Perhaps they need to strengthen the trains only on certain days of the week.

Southern will start to operate some services (Littlehampton-Victoria) Mondays-Thursdays only from next month.

 

[Jamesrob637]

If now is the full service then I would like to see the timetable recast so that there could be two fast trains an hour from Guildford to Clapham Junction or if a change at Woking is still required, for it not to be a 20 minute wait, sometimes longer.


Perhaps they need to strengthen the trains only on certain days of the week.

No, they need to go back to a 2019 timetable mid-week.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Places like Staines, Walton, Cobham still have slower services than in 1980s and early 1990s even though fewer trains are now being run so the argument of resilience over speed is very weak now.

Do they? I can believe Staines, but Walton has half-hourly semi-fasts due to adding it as an additional stop to the Alton/Basingstoke trains. Maybe my memory is wrong but I don't recall that happening in the 1980s/90s? And I thought the Cobham trains run fast between Surbiton and Wimbledon?

Of course speed comparisons with the 1980s are always going to look bad because of what I think was then SWT's decision to slow down loads of trains in order to make the timetable more reliable - if I recall correctly, sometime in the 2000's, although I can't remember exactly when. This means that places like Alton or Fleet do now have much slower trains compared to the 1980s (but not slower compared to pre-Covid).

 

[Craig1122]

Do they? I can believe Staines, but Walton has half-hourly semi-fasts due to adding it as an additional stop to the Alton/Basingstoke trains. Maybe my memory is wrong but I don't recall that happening in the 1980s/90s? And I thought the Cobham trains run fast between Surbiton and Wimbledon?

Of course speed comparisons with the 1980s are always going to look bad because of what I think was then SWT's decision to slow down loads of trains in order to make the timetable more reliable - if I recall correctly, sometime in the 2000's, although I can't remember exactly when. This means that places like Alton or Fleet do now have much slower trains compared to the 1980s (but not slower compared to pre-Covid).

The 2004 timetable was the big change, before that every version was a tweak on I think 1967. From memory Alton suffered especially badly time wise because of conflicts towards Woking.

Going beyond changes to make timings more robust it's notable that the current service patterns have tended towards putting more stops in, especially towards the London end when compared to the 70's or 80's.

For example Staines was cited above, there were some non stop peak trains and off peak there were fewer stops on both Windsor and Reading services. This means some stations towards London have gained a much better service even with the current reduced timetable. People further out who have longer journeys to Waterloo get the trade off of better connectivity if they don't want central London. For example the number of stops at Vauxhall for the Victoria line has vastly increased. I think it could be argued the benefits outweigh longer journeys for some.

 

[RailWonderer]

Indeed. Of course there are a few posters on here who seem to want exactly that!

I don't want to see it either, removing a few peak extras is all they need to do to allow increased reliability, resilience, fewer delays and more slack in the fleet. I don't want to see a spiral of decline but I only refer to cost saving because the UK will never be like Europe which subsidies its railways significantly more.

 

[43066]

I don't want to see it either, removing a few peak extras is all they need to do to allow increased reliability, resilience, fewer delays and more slack in the fleet. I don't want to see a spiral of decline but I only refer to cost saving because the UK will never be like Europe which subsidies its railways significantly more.

Fair enough, although I’d question wherher there really are many peak extras that can now be removed - surely those all went immediately post Covid, and we’re now at the point where services could be increased again. As noted above not increasing them so that they remain crowded and insufficiently frequent to be usable won’t save much money, but might reduce revenue going forward.

The point about subsidy is valid, but it’s a function of the choices of successive governments. There’s no intrinsic reason why we shouldn’t subsidise our public services to a greater extent. We often moan about how poor our services seem compared to other European countries but there’s a big element of getting what we pay for.

 

[Goldfish62]

I don't want to see it either, removing a few peak extras is all they need to do to allow increased reliability, resilience, fewer delays and more slack in the fleet. I don't want to see a spiral of decline but I only refer to cost saving because the UK will never be like Europe which subsidies its railways significantly more.

The reduction in services has not brought about increased reliability. if anything it's worse than ever, coupled with the fact that when a train doesn't turn up you'll be likely to have an even longer wait due there being fewer scheduled services.

As ever, it's not the absolute cost that matters. It's the gap between cost and income, ie net cost.

 

[infobleep]

I couldn't see it - apologies if it was posted - but I'm surprised nobody has mentioned Clapham Junction.

A decent number of people aren't going to Waterloo, which doesn't show in the figures the OP posted.

The cynic in me would say let's not mention Clapham Junxtion as it would highlight that not enough trains stop there.

 

[quartile]

I think the current timetable has reduced the time during the peaks that fast line trains don't stop at Clapham. When I worked at Victoria pre-covid the numbers alighting from the first am peak fast Woking train to stop at Clapham were substantial.

Many London based business are reducing the size of their office estate to save money, it will be interesting to see if this has the impact of increasing numbers that travel in on a Monday or Friday as they can't get a desk in the middle of the week.

 

[Horizon22]

Many London based business are reducing the size of their office estate to save money, it will be interesting to see if this has the impact of increasing numbers that travel in on a Monday or Friday as they can't get a desk in the middle of the week.

Yet on the contrary, many London-based businesses are increasing the number of days they expect people in the office from something like 2 days a week to 3 or 4 days a week.

 

[quartile]

Yet on the contrary, many London-based businesses are increasing the number of days they expect people in the office from something like 2 days a week to 3 or 4 days a week.

I agree - mine has to 50% and some people are choosing to come in 4 or 5 as they prefer it. - I don't think we've found the new equilibrium yet

 

[43066]

Yet on the contrary, many London-based businesses are increasing the number of days they expect people in the office from something like 2 days a week to 3 or 4 days a week.

I agree - mine has to 50% and some people are choosing to come in 4 or 5 as they prefer it. - I don't think we've found the new equilibrium yet

Yes. In another couple of years it seems likely that working patterns will be indistinguishable from pre Covid - remembering that there was already a trend for more home working/flexible working hours which the pandemic merely accelerated.

There really does need to be a focus on growing the railway, rather than the endlessly focus on numbers/revenue before v. after the pandemic.

 

[winks]

Re off peak travel Is a 5-car really suitable heading out of Waterloo to Bournemouth on a Saturday? Especially 9pm onwards the trains are pretty much full but a 5 carriage train does nothing for passenger experience/comfort!

 

[Horizon22]

Re off peak travel Is a 5-car really suitable heading out of Waterloo to Bournemouth on a Saturday? Especially 9pm onwards the trains are pretty much full but a 5 carriage train does nothing for passenger experience/comfort!

One issue is always the railway doesn’t have the capacity to be able to change rolling stock schedules quick enough on account of the weather! You might get an influx of people at relatively short notice. Also most TOCs still have maintenance schedules which require fewer units running on Saturday and Sunday.

That being said a bank holiday weekend - where there may be engineering works elsewhere freeing up some fleet - should lead to selective strengthening. Although that is much easier to suggest than it is to plan and accommodate.

 

[infobleep]

I think the current timetable has reduced the time during the peaks that fast line trains don't stop at Clapham. When I worked at Victoria pre-covid the numbers alighting from the first am peak fast Woking train to stop at Clapham were substantial.

Many London based business are reducing the size of their office estate to save money, it will be interesting to see if this has the impact of increasing numbers that travel in on a Monday or Friday as they can't get a desk in the middle of the week.

The last fast train from Guildford to stop at Clapham Junction is now the 7:01 am. The next train is still the 8:34.

At Woking after 7:13, the next train to Clapham Junction, fast or slow, is still the 8:32, which is overtaken by the 8:46.

In the evening from Clapham Junction the gap to Woking is less. There is a 17:02 from Clapham Junction, which goes to Alton and also a 18:02.

So the reduction in the morning in the gap is only about 8 minutes I think pre-covid the last train may have been 6:53 from Guildford.

My previous comments related to the times outside high peak.

 

[Craig1122]

Clapham stops on the fast were always a capacity issue. The curved platform makes despatch slow. From memory each train that stops eats up one additional path. This was incidentally part of the reason why the failed Sea Containers bid for the franchise suggested rebuilding Clapham Junction to the east where the tracks straighten.

With the reduction in services it's likely it would be possible to stop more trains there in the peak. But of course this comes at the expense of end to end journey times which is discussed elsewhere. Incidentally the new SWR timetable which was consulted on pre covid but never implemented actually removed stops to slightly reduce journey times. For example Exeter services would have alternated between stopping at Woking or Clapham.

 

[winks]

Incidentally the new SWR timetable which was consulted on pre covid but never implemented actually removed stops to slightly reduce journey times. For example Exeter services would have alternated between stopping at Woking or Clapham.

I do feel that Basingstoke London bound trains probably don’t need to stop all the time at Woking for sure - but obviously this connects on to Heathrow Apt. Always winners and losers !