How might TfW adapt their rolling stock plans post-Covid, now that they're acquiring additional MkIV rakes?

[krus_aragon]

When the new franchise was let, the long-term rolling stock plan outside the Valleys area was roughly as follows:

• 3 x MkIV rakes to replace the existing MkIII rakes, with three services each way North-South
• 5 x Class 230 units to operate the Borderlands line
• 12 x Class 170 units used on West Wales and Heart of Wales services
• 77 x Class 197 units used for all other regional services, 14 of which would include First Class accommodation for Swansea-Manchester services

With all other fleets, including the sprinters and 175s to be disposed of.

We've recently heard that TfW have acquired five additional rakes of MkIV stock from Grand Central, to operate four 5-carriage diagrams on the Swansea-Manchester route. TfW have also sub-let some 170s to EMR, though it's unclear whether this is going to be more than a temporary arrangement.

The introduction of MkIV rakes on Swansea-Manchester means that TfW won't need 14 3-car 197s to be fitted with First Class to provide the (initially planned) service. The 2-car units from West Wales that were expected to couple up to them will also be released east of Swansea. Going by sheer rule-of-thumb, four 5-carriage MkIV rakes could release four 2-car and four 3-car 197s for duties elsewhere.

So what might TfW be planning to do with this displaced stock? Displace the 170s for a more uniform fleet? Keep the First Class accommodation on the 3-car units, and use them to operate the 2-hourly Holyhead-Cardiff services between the planned MkIV ones? Operate some new services instead?

I'd be interested to hear your thoughts...

 

[Bletchleyite]

It sounds to me like the 170s will end up with EMR (replaced by 197s displaced by the Mk4s) which would solve their Liverpool to Notts issue. I guess the rest unchanged.

 

[RobShipway]

When the new franchise was let, the long-term rolling stock plan outside the Valleys area was roughly as follows:

• 3 x MkIV rakes to replace the existing MkIII rakes, with three services each way North-South
• 5 x Class 230 units to operate the Borderlands line
• 12 x Class 170 units used on West Wales and Heart of Wales services
• 77 x Class 197 units used for all other regional services, 14 of which would include First Class accommodation for Swansea-Manchester services

With all other fleets, including the sprinters and 175s to be disposed of.

We've recently heard that TfW have acquired five additional rakes of MkIV stock from Grand Central, to operate four 5-carriage diagrams on the Swansea-Manchester route. TfW have also sub-let some 170s to EMR, though it's unclear whether this is going to be more than a temporary arrangement.

The introduction of MkIV rakes on Swansea-Manchester means that TfW won't need 14 3-car 197s to be fitted with First Class to provide the (initially planned) service. The 2-car units from West Wales that were expected to couple up to them will also be released east of Swansea. Going by sheer rule-of-thumb, four 5-carriage MkIV rakes could release four 2-car and four 3-car 197s for duties elsewhere.

So what might TfW be planning to do with this displaced stock? Displace the 170s for a more uniform fleet? Keep the First Class accommodation on the 3-car units, and use them to operate the 2-hourly Holyhead-Cardiff services between the planned MkIV ones? Operate some new services instead?

I'd be interested to hear your thoughts...

You are missing the flirt class 231 and 756 fleets.

There will be 11 class 231 flirts doing services between Maesteg and Cheltenham Spa, plus between Cardiff and Ebbw Vale. The 7 3 car and 17 4 car class 756 units will be on the Valley Lines and Vale of Glamorgan line.

Both class 231 and 756 are to replace class 150, 153, 170 and 769 fleets. The class 231 are to be introduced in 2022 and class 756 in 2023.

But I suspect that in the meantime where possible, you may have class 197 units replacing class 170 in the short term prior to the flirts introduction.

 

[craigybagel]

When the new franchise was let, the long-term rolling stock plan outside the Valleys area was roughly as follows:

• 3 x MkIV rakes to replace the existing MkIII rakes, with three services each way North-South
• 5 x Class 230 units to operate the Borderlands line
• 12 x Class 170 units used on West Wales and Heart of Wales services
• 77 x Class 197 units used for all other regional services, 14 of which would include First Class accommodation for Swansea-Manchester services

With all other fleets, including the sprinters and 175s to be disposed of.

We've recently heard that TfW have acquired five additional rakes of MkIV stock from Grand Central, to operate four 5-carriage diagrams on the Swansea-Manchester route. TfW have also sub-let some 170s to EMR, though it's unclear whether this is going to be more than a temporary arrangement.

The introduction of MkIV rakes on Swansea-Manchester means that TfW won't need 14 3-car 197s to be fitted with First Class to provide the (initially planned) service. The 2-car units from West Wales that were expected to couple up to them will also be released east of Swansea. Going by sheer rule-of-thumb, four 5-carriage MkIV rakes could release four 2-car and four 3-car 197s for duties elsewhere.

So what might TfW be planning to do with this displaced stock? Displace the 170s for a more uniform fleet? Keep the First Class accommodation on the 3-car units, and use them to operate the 2-hourly Holyhead-Cardiff services between the planned MkIV ones? Operate some new services instead?

I'd be interested to hear your thoughts...

At the bottom of the news story you linked to about the five additional MKIV rakes you'll find the following paragraph.

The investment in high-quality trains demonstrates we’re going above and beyond our original commitment to transform the Wales and Borders rail service and deliver a world-class service for our customers throughout our network, including on the Heart of Wales and west Wales where we’re upgrading our original plans.

The full details are still being worked on, but one thing I can say is that as it stands it definitely does NOT see the 197s going to West Wales and HOWL instead of 170s.

 

[adrock1976]

Being as Wales has a fleet of 36 Class 150s, are these going to be scrapped in the near future being as they were built in 1986/87?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Being as Wales has a fleet of 36 Class 150s, are these going to be scrapped in the near future being as they were built in 1986/87?

Probably end up with Northern.

 

[ABB125]

I can envisage a small, dedicated fleet of class 230s for the Heart of Wales line. I'm not so sure about West Wales though, I suspect the 60mph top speed is a bit slow

 

[Anonymous10]

I can envisage a small, dedicated fleet of class 230s for the Heart of Wales line. I'm not so sure about West Wales though, I suspect the 60mph top speed is a bit slow

Carmarthen to Pembroke dock 60mph should be fine i think they rarely get above 50

 

[NoMorePacers]

I can envisage a small, dedicated fleet of class 230s for the Heart of Wales line. I'm not so sure about West Wales though, I suspect the 60mph top speed is a bit slow

170s on the Heart of Wales line does seem to be a disaster waiting to happen - perhaps 230s might be a better train for it.

 

[Whistler40145]

170s on the Heart of Wales line does seem to be a disaster waiting to happen - perhaps 230s might be a better train for it.

I don’t see 170s being suitable for the HOWL

 

[RobShipway]

I don’t see 170s being suitable for the HOWL

According to the wiki page for class 230 units, they are to be used on the Bordersline between Wrexham and Bidston.

The Wiki pages for class 197, 231 and 756 all suggesting that they are replacing class 150, 153, 170 with the Class 756 also replacing the class 769.

My suspicion is that TFW will either keep a small fleet of class 150's for HOWL or it will be run by class 769 units, once the class 756 units have been introduced. The only other answer I can see, is if the Class 398 Tram-trains where to be used. But those are suppose to be for the Valley Lines to Aberdare, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney

 

[daodao]

According to the wiki page for class 230 units, they are to be used on the Bordersline between Wrexham and Bidston.

The Wiki pages for class 197, 231 and 756 all suggesting that they are replacing class 150, 153, 170 with the Class 756 also replacing the class 769.

My suspicion is that TFW will either keep a small fleet of class 150's for HOWL or it will be run by class 769 units, once the class 756 units have been introduced. The only other answer I can see, is if the Class 398 Tram-trains where to be used. But those are suppose to be for the Valley Lines to Aberdare, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney

There are a number of TfW branch lines outside the core Valley network with frequent stops for which trains with fast acceleration, but not necessarily a high top speed, are required. These include the branch lines to Ebbw Vale, Maesteg, Pembroke Dock and Blaenau Ffestiniog, the Cambrian Coast line (as distinct from the Cambrian main line), and the Heart of Wales and Borderlands lines. Class 197 dmus do not seem to be the most appropriate trains for these routes, as they are intended for higher speed interurban services on main lines with infrequent stops. What trains would be best suited for these branch routes?

PS: The Rhonnda Fawr rather than the Rhymni valley is intended to be served by the Class 398 tram-trains.

 

[Aictos]

With the extra Mk4 sets, is it possible for the Swansea to Manchester/Holyhead to Birmingham International to be either all operated by the MK4s or majority operated by the MK4s?

 

[Bletchleyite]

There are a number of TfW branch lines outside the core Valley network with frequent stops for which trains with fast acceleration, but not necessarily a high top speed, are required. These include the branch lines to Ebbw Vale, Maesteg, Pembroke Dock and Blaenau Ffestiniog, the Cambrian Coast line (as distinct from the Cambrian main line), and the Heart of Wales and Borderlands lines. Class 197 dmus do not seem to be the most appropriate trains for these routes, as they are intended for higher speed interurban services on main lines with infrequent stops. What trains would be best suited for these branch routes?

This is a false premise as anyone who's ever been on a 195 can tell you. These units, with their powerful engines and mechanical transmissions, give almost EMU-like acceleration and so are ideal for local stopping services despite the top speed, and Northern do seem to be shifting towards using their benefits in that way, with them having become common on the Hope Valley stoppers (for example). So 197s are great for all these lines.

If the 170s are staying, it would make sense to move those onto long distance services with 197s onto stoppers in their place.

 

[Caaardiff]

My suspicion is that TFW will either keep a small fleet of class 150's for HOWL or it will be run by class 769 units, once the class 756 units have been introduced.

I would agree on a few 150s staying. The 769s are too long for the heart of Wales.
With 158s and 175s unable to work the full length of HOWL in passenger service, I imagine there will be gauging issues for the 170s. With such a long stretch, would be costly to sort out.

The question is, what will replace the 150s if they do stay. They will be quite an age if kept another 5+ years

 

[RobShipway]

I would agree on a few 150s staying. The 769s are too long for the heart of Wales.
With 158s and 175s unable to work the full length of HOWL in passenger service, I imagine there will be gauging issues for the 170s. With such a long stretch, would be costly to sort out.

The question is, what will replace the 150s if they do stay. They will be quite an age if kept another 5+ years

Other than class 197's replacing the 150's, the only other answer would possibly be the two car class 175 units. But those I suspect would have loading issues due to where the doors are located. I guess time will tell.

 

[Anonymous10]

personally a logical step would be to order more class 230s as a long term plan

 

[Bletchleyite]

personally a logical step would be to order more class 230s as a long term plan

If ordering anything else, 197s or Stadlers would make most sense. 230s are junk and a microfleet.

 

[RobShipway]

If ordering anything else, 197s or Stadlers would make most sense. 230s are junk and a microfleet.

I would agree but I think, it is more likely to be the 3 car class 756 flirts as the the class 231 units are suppose to be four car. Although, possibly the 7 three class 756 units maybe a bit too long for some platforms with the space for the power unit added as well? The most sensible answer is the two car class 197 units.

 

[craigybagel]

170s on the Heart of Wales line does seem to be a disaster waiting to happen - perhaps 230s might be a better train for it.

I don’t see 170s being suitable for the HOWL

I'm curious as to why people are so convinced the 170s would be a disaster on the HOWL. The usual suggestion is that they're not good on routes with low speeds, but they've been working other slower branch lines for years and the world doesn't appear to have ended as a result. Plus the original plan isn't that they'll ONLY work the HOWL, they're supposed to share those duties with other routes.

They'd definitely cope better on the line then some of the other suggestions here

My suspicion is that TFW will either keep a small fleet of class 150's for HOWL or it will be run by class 769 units, once the class 756 units have been introduced. The only other answer I can see, is if the Class 398 Tram-trains where to be used. But those are suppose to be for the Valley Lines to Aberdare, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney

769s are a bit overkill, and the last place you want to send such a (so far) unreliable bit of kit is down a rural and isolated line often far from civilisation (and from other trains that can rescue it when the inevitable happens. Incidentally those same reliability worries would also apply to 230s.

Still, they'd do better than the 398s, what with their being no overhead wires for any part of the journey. I don't think their batteries will last for 4½ hours.

There are a number of TfW branch lines outside the core Valley network with frequent stops for which trains with fast acceleration, but not necessarily a high top speed, are required. These include the branch lines to Ebbw Vale, Maesteg, Pembroke Dock and Blaenau Ffestiniog, the Cambrian Coast line (as distinct from the Cambrian main line), and the Heart of Wales and Borderlands lines. Class 197 dmus do not seem to be the most appropriate trains for these routes, as they are intended for higher speed interurban services on main lines with infrequent stops. What trains would be best suited for these branch routes?

PS: The Rhonnda Fawr rather than the Rhymni valley is intended to be served by the Class 398 tram-trains.

Ebbw Vale and Maesteg are getting flirts with both high acceleration and 100mph top speed, which should be perfect for both the branches and the main line dashes that follow them.

Blaneau Ffestiniog is getting 197s which on first glance might seem like overkill, but with every other TfW service for miles around using them (other then the twice daily 67 hauled loco service) it makes things a lot simpler then having a separate non compatible unit for the branch that you have to move between there and Chester for maintenance, and with all the extra training it would require on top.

Cambrian Coast will be using 197s so as to allow through running to Shrewsbury and Birmingham which is very popular in Summer (rather than forcing the crowds to change at Machynlleth). It also means only one fleet of trains needs to have ERTMS added (not an easy task) and again keeps maintenance and training simpler on the Cambrian.

Borderlands is getting it's own bespoke 230 solution, as it's a bit of a unique line.

That leaves HOWL and Pembroke Dock, which were meant to be getting 170s but TfW are saying they're working on an "improved" plan for

If the 170s are staying, it would make sense to move those onto long distance services with 197s onto stoppers in their place.

The problem is there's only 12. Using 197s enmasse is a lot easier for compatibility and timetabling and training and so many other reasons.

I would agree on a few 150s staying. The 769s are too long for the heart of Wales.
With 158s and 175s unable to work the full length of HOWL in passenger service, I imagine there will be gauging issues for the 170s. With such a long stretch, would be costly to sort out.

Only 158s are barred from the HOWL. 175s can and have worked it before, though they are currently temporarily barred from using one platform at one of the passing loops. The issues with 158s are I believe around gauging with how far outwards the doors open - I'm sure it could be fixed if the will and need was ever there (and they've run down the line ECS before, albeit with the Air let out of the suspension).

The question is, what will replace the 150s if they do stay. They will be quite an age if kept another 5+ years

That is indeed a very good question. Which is why I'm not convinced at all that that is a likely solution.

Other than class 197's replacing the 150's, the only other answer would possibly be the two car class 175 units. But those I suspect would have loading issues due to where the doors are located. I guess time will tell.

None of the lines in question here are renowned for their frequent crowds at busy stations, I doubt the door layout would be too much of a problem. In any case most if not all of the busiest stations on the West Wales branches and HOWL are token exchange points which take a few minutes to navigate.

If ordering anything else, 197s or Stadlers would make most sense. 230s are junk and a microfleet.

For once,I (partially) agree with you. Borderlands is pretty much the only place suitable for 230s (providing they can work reliably).

However, as I said above - I can't say everything about the current plan for West Wales and HOWL, but in the main it does not feature 175s,197s, 230s, 769s or Stadlers.

 

[Whistler40145]

According to the wiki page for class 230 units, they are to be used on the Bordersline between Wrexham and Bidston.

The Wiki pages for class 197, 231 and 756 all suggesting that they are replacing class 150, 153, 170 with the Class 756 also replacing the class 769.

My suspicion is that TFW will either keep a small fleet of class 150's for HOWL or it will be run by class 769 units, once the class 756 units have been introduced. The only other answer I can see, is if the Class 398 Tram-trains where to be used. But those are suppose to be for the Valley Lines to Aberdare, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney

IMHO Class 769s were only a stop gap measure until new trains were delivered

 

[Caaardiff]

IMHO Class 769s were only a stop gap measure until new trains were delivered

There was rumours that they were to be used for the new Bristol service that was an aspiration. That rumour seems to have died off or put on the back burner while TfW sorts it's current routes before anything else.
So your opinion is likely correct, I can see the 769s going at the first opportunity given their reliability.

 

[craigybagel]

IMHO Class 769s were only a stop gap measure until new trains were delivered

Correct. It was meant to have been a larger gap they filled of course but nobody knew they'd be so late into service.....

There was rumours that they were to be used for the new Bristol service that was an aspiration. That rumour seems to have died off or put on the back burner while TfW sorts it's current routes before anything else.
So your opinion is likely correct, I can see the 769s going at the first opportunity given their reliability.

The Bristol service was only ever a rumour at best, and is not included on the list of cross border services TfW are permitted to operate.

 

[Whistler40145]

There was rumours that they were to be used for the new Bristol service that was an aspiration. That rumour seems to have died off or put on the back burner while TfW sorts it's current routes before anything else.
So your opinion is likely correct, I can see the 769s going at the first opportunity given their reliability.

As Class 319s, they're life expired

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm curious as to why people are so convinced the 170s would be a disaster on the HOWL. The usual suggestion is that they're not good on routes with low speeds, but they've been working other slower branch lines for years and the world doesn't appear to have ended as a result. Plus the original plan isn't that they'll ONLY work the HOWL, they're supposed to share those duties with other routes.

The main issue with them is that on low speed lines they waste a lot of energy stirring transmission fluid as they never make it into direct drive. I wonder if a regearing to 75mph might make sense in that context, as then they'd be basically a poshed up 150 in transmission terms and so quicker off the mark too? Do the planned routes require them to exceed that for any considerable distance?

Blaneau Ffestiniog is getting 197s which on first glance might seem like overkill, but with every other TfW service for miles around using them (other then the twice daily 67 hauled loco service) it makes things a lot simpler then having a separate non compatible unit for the branch that you have to move between there and Chester for maintenance, and with all the extra training it would require on top.

Yes, this is a bit like 350s to St Albans - sure, a 153 would be enough for that line at most if not all times, but it's easier to use something you've already got lots of rather than have something special as a microfleet. Yes, LNR have the 230s as a microfleet but those are due to a very specific requirement on platform lengths, and they don't now have any 20m vehicle DMUs which would also suit, so anything used there would either be too short (153) or a microfleet (anything else).

The superb acceleration of 197s might also allow some timetable improvements once they have bedded in.

Cambrian Coast will be using 197s so as to allow through running to Shrewsbury and Birmingham which is very popular in Summer (rather than forcing the crowds to change at Machynlleth). It also means only one fleet of trains needs to have ERTMS added (not an easy task) and again keeps maintenance and training simpler on the Cambrian.

Yes, the through service is popular, though capacity will be a bit of a squeeze with the 2-car units. I think my choice overall would be to split it with a rebuild of Mach station to an island platform for better interchange (that or build proper facilities at Dyfi, but while there's plenty of space between the platforms for that it might be environmentally undesirable), and "proper" IC trains on the Abers. However what has been ordered has been ordered, so 197s win.

Borderlands is getting it's own bespoke 230 solution, as it's a bit of a unique line.

I'm still not entirely sure why 2-car 197s wouldn't work? Or was it because hopefully through working onto Merseyrail might be a thing (using battery 777s) by the time the 230s get a bit old? They were similarly ordered for LNR as a 10 year stopgap pending EWR taking over, with the 5-station plan (assuming that goes ahead) the platforms will be extended, signals moved and crossings closed so 23/24m units will fit.

The problem is there's only 12. Using 197s enmasse is a lot easier for compatibility and timetabling and training and so many other reasons.

True. I suppose that pushes in favour of the "170s to EMR and a few more 197s" argument, though.

Only 158s are barred from the HOWL. 175s can and have worked it before, though they are currently temporarily barred from using one platform at one of the passing loops. The issues with 158s are I believe around gauging with how far outwards the doors open - I'm sure it could be fixed if the will and need was ever there (and they've run down the line ECS before, albeit with the Air let out of the suspension).

That is indeed a very good question. Which is why I'm not convinced at all that that is a likely solution.

I don't think diesel units heading dangerously towards 40 years old (now that does make me feel old myself!) are a solution to very much, particularly given greater environmental awareness. Indeed, I think leaving branch lines running diesel units that old is a sure-fire way to end up with them being politically untenable to retain when a newish electric bus could replace them, so the railway has to be careful here.

EMUs are different, of course, if they look decent and aren't falling to bits you can run them as long as you like, as regen was probably the last big "environmentally friendly" EMU improvement.

For once,I (partially) agree with you. Borderlands is pretty much the only place suitable for 230s (providing they can work reliably).

Big "if" there. We're having rather a heatwave here, I should keep my eye on Realtime Trains to see if there are any failures today and over the next few days. Of course the Welsh ones have the batteries which might well effectively mask an engine having to shut down for a short while to cool a bit (and it might cool quicker with some airflow around it).

However, as I said above - I can't say everything about the current plan for West Wales and HOWL, but in the main it does not feature 175s,197s, 230s, 769s or Stadlers.

Interesting.

 

[Whistler40145]

What's the average passenger numbers on HOWL services?

 

[craigybagel]

The main issue with them is that on low speed lines they waste a lot of energy stirring transmission fluid as they never make it into direct drive. I wonder if a regearing to 75mph might make sense in that context, as then they'd be basically a poshed up 150 in transmission terms and so quicker off the mark too? Do the planned routes require them to exceed that for any considerable distance?

Not really no - they're only likely to exceed 75mph North of Craven Arms, and even then not for all that long (the steep gradients along that section of the Marches are an issue for southbound services). I've often wondered if regearing 170s is actually a lot harder then we think, since as you say it does seem like a sensible suggestion, but so far nobody has ever done it!

One other thing I've wondered about with 170s and their transmission is it fixed at ~67mph in every power setting? On our Sprinters and 175s the change over takes places at a lower speed if a lower power setting is selected. 175s normally don't change over till ~65mph at full power, but it will cruise in direct drive at much lower speeds quite happily.

Yes, this is a bit like 350s to St Albans - sure, a 153 would be enough for that line at most if not all times, but it's easier to use something you've already got lots of rather than have something special as a microfleet. Yes, LNR have the 230s as a microfleet but those are due to a very specific requirement on platform lengths, and they don't now have any 20m vehicle DMUs which would also suit, so anything used there would either be too short (153) or a microfleet (anything else).

A very good analogy. By all means use microfleets if you absolutely have to - but if you don't, they're much better avoided

Yes, the through service is popular, though capacity will be a bit of a squeeze with the 2-car units. I think my choice overall would be to split it with a rebuild of Mach station to an island platform for better interchange (that or build proper facilities at Dyfi, but while there's plenty of space between the platforms for that it might be environmentally undesirable), and "proper" IC trains on the Abers. However what has been ordered has been ordered, so 197s win.

I think locally there would be a lot of complaints if the through service was withdrawn, regardless of how convenient you made the connection at Mach.

Hopefully though the changes being made to the original plans and the extra MKIVs in particular will allow the use of more CAFs on the Cambrian if capacity does turn out to be an issue there.

I'm still not entirely sure why 2-car 197s wouldn't work? Or was it because hopefully through working onto Merseyrail might be a thing (using battery 777s) by the time the 230s get a bit old? They were similarly ordered for LNR as a 10 year stopgap pending EWR taking over, with the 5-station plan (assuming that goes ahead) the platforms will be extended, signals moved and crossings closed so 23/24m units will fit.

To be honest, I'm not 100% sure either. However, we can safely say that outside of the Valleys (which are of course getting their own bespoke fleets) the Borderlands is the best route on the TfW network to use them on, and if using them freed up funds for other trains on other routes then so much the better.

Plus it's the route with the biggest question mark over it's medium-long term future, so a line for which a more temporary solution then an expensive brand new DMU might be more suitable

True. I suppose that pushes in favour of the "170s to EMR and a few more 197s" argument, though.

Indeed, though I again suspect that cost was the issue behind the original plan of using 170s in West Wales, otherwise more 197s would have been ordered from day one. Also the 170s were available sooner - and at the time nobody knew what was going to happen with EMR.

I don't think diesel units heading dangerously towards 40 years old (now that does make me feel old myself!) are a solution to very much, particularly given greater environmental awareness. Indeed, I think leaving branch lines running diesel units that old is a sure-fire way to end up with them being politically untenable to retain when a newish electric bus could replace them, so the railway has to be careful here.

That's one reason why I'm grateful for the Welsh government being in charge. It makes closures even more unpalatable then ever before.

Big "if" there. We're having rather a heatwave here, I should keep my eye on Realtime Trains to see if there are any failures today and over the next few days. Of course the Welsh ones have the batteries which might well effectively mask an engine having to shut down for a short while to cool a bit (and it might cool quicker with some airflow around it).

Fair point. Fingers crossed.

What's the average passenger numbers on HOWL services?

It varies considerably by time of day and time of year. I've seen 150s with passengers standing - and with few or no passengers on at all.

The numbers did drop noticeably a few years ago with the timetable change debacle though. Outside of special events a 2 car 170 would provide comfortably enough capacity pretty much all of the time I would think.

 

[NoMorePacers]

I'm curious as to why people are so convinced the 170s would be a disaster on the HOWL. The usual suggestion is that they're not good on routes with low speeds, but they've been working other slower branch lines for years and the world doesn't appear to have ended as a result. Plus the original plan isn't that they'll ONLY work the HOWL, they're supposed to share those duties with other routes.

They'd definitely cope better on the line then some of the other suggestions here

I think of the issues that the Northern 170s have suffered as a result of running on the Harrogate Loop over the past couple of years - the Heart of Wales seems very similar in characteristics to that line (relatively slow top speed, frequent stops, hilly). Plus it seems (although obviously I don't really know what they want to run them on other than HoW and Pembroke Dock) like TfW are only intending to use them on slow stopping services - again reminds me of the issues with the Northern Turbostars.

Of course I might be wrong but I'm just basing my guess on previous events.

 

[Rhydgaled]

There are a number of TfW branch lines outside the core Valley network with frequent stops for which trains with fast acceleration, but not necessarily a high top speed, are required. These include the branch lines to Ebbw Vale, Maesteg, Pembroke Dock and Blaenau Ffestiniog, the Cambrian Coast line (as distinct from the Cambrian main line), and the Heart of Wales and Borderlands lines. Class 197 dmus do not seem to be the most appropriate trains for these routes, as they are intended for higher speed interurban services on main lines with infrequent stops. What trains would be best suited for these branch routes?

Although the class 197s are intended for higher speed interurban services on main lines with infrequent stops, the design of them seems to be far more appropriate for busy services with frequent stops. From what I've read, the transmission on the CAF DMUs seems to be more akin to a 172 than a 170 with good acceleration (and indeed WMR's intended uses for the 196s include the Birmingham-Shrewsbury stoppers). The commuter stoppers to Ebbw Vale and Maesteg, if they weren't getting 231s, would be ideal routes for 197s. Pembroke Dock, Conwy Valley and the Cambrian Coast on the other hand, while they do have frequent stops, don't have the same suburban/metro nature - many of the stations are small halts which are unlikely to have large numbers of passengers boarding/alighting so you shouldn't need to worry about dwell times. I thus don't consider 197s ideal for those routes, with their wide doors and limited toilet provision, though the facts that the Conwy Valley journey is under 1.5hrs and there will be little opertunity to work anything else to/from Llandudno to swap units on the branch means the 197s aren't the worst option there. 197s shouldn't be allowed near the Cambrian though - cancel the ETCS fittment on 197s.

I would agree on a few 150s staying. The 769s are too long for the heart of Wales.
With 158s and 175s unable to work the full length of HOWL in passenger service, I imagine there will be gauging issues for the 170s. With such a long stretch, would be costly to sort out.

The question is, what will replace the 150s if they do stay. They will be quite an age if kept another 5+ years

175s have worked the HOWL in passenger service when the marches line has been closed, and I've seen a Wales & West or Wales & Borders route map which suggested 158s ran the service back then* (although I believe you are correct that they are unable to go there in passenger service now).

* the Heart Of Wales was shown as having an 'Alphaline' service

The Bristol service was only ever a rumour at best, and is not included on the list of cross border services TfW are permitted to operate.

The Welsh Government / Capita recently ran a consultation on a 'Swansea Bay Metro'. Despite the title, this also discussed potential improvements to services west of Swansea, which included options for Bristol services. So a Bristol service is a tiny bit more than just a rumour - it is something that 'the powers that be' have some interest in.

Yes, the through service is popular, though capacity will be a bit of a squeeze with the 2-car units. I think my choice overall would be to split it with a rebuild of Mach station to an island platform for better interchange (that or build proper facilities at Dyfi, but while there's plenty of space between the platforms for that it might be environmentally undesirable), and "proper" IC trains on the Abers. However what has been ordered has been ordered, so 197s win.

If you run Cambrian Coast services through to Machynlleth you might as well couple up to the Aberystwyth portion and continue to Birmingham. Terminating at Dovey Junction on the other hand might open up the possibility of an hourly Cambrian Coast service (hourly Cambrian Coast services would otherwise need to pass at Dovey Junction where there isn't currently a passing loop for them to use). If run as a standalone shuttle, I think 75mph units (a bit like 156s but with two toilets) would be ideal for the Cambrian Coast but its isolated nature means you'd want to share stock with the Cambrian Main Line which has some stretches above 75mph and effectively means you might as well stick with 90/100mph units and portion working.

I'm still not entirely sure why 2-car 197s wouldn't work? Or was it because hopefully through working onto Merseyrail might be a thing (using battery 777s) by the time the 230s get a bit old?

Before he lost his ministerial position, I heard Ken Skates give a speech which included a suggestion that he would like to see the Wrexham to Bidston service become a Wrexham to Liverpool service - so that does work in favour of the 230s. Otherwise, as you say, 197s would seem a reasonable fit given the intention to develop the route as a suburban/commuter metro system.

I don't think diesel units heading dangerously towards 40 years old (now that does make me feel old myself!) are a solution to very much, particularly given greater environmental awareness. Indeed, I think leaving branch lines running diesel units that old is a sure-fire way to end up with them being politically untenable to retain when a newish electric bus could replace them, so the railway has to be careful here.

Indeed, the railway has to be careful. But a brand-new diesel that will be 35 years old in 2057 is also a threat. There is not going to be a business case for replacing a DMU that is only 10 or 20 years old and, unless that DMU is actually a DEMU with the potential to easily retro-fit a pantograph (as it appears is the case with the 231s), there is not going to be a business case for electrifying the route either. 77 class 197s (and 161 CAF DMUs in total) simply does not fit with a rail decarbonisation plan unless the completion date of that plan is significantly after 2050. The TDNS does say that we shouldn't be buying new diesel-only trains - shame it didn't appear before the 197 order.

The thing to do if you ask me if ring up CAF and ask for a variation on the 197 order. After the first 25 or so have been built (because it's too late too do anything about the first few and you woudn't want a tiny micro-fleet), have the rest of the fleet delivered as DEMUs wired for easy convertion to bi-mode (so you can just add a pantograph and go, without having to worry about rewiring to get power from it to all the traction motors) - prefrably after a short delay compared to the original delivery schedule. Use the diesel-only ones on all stations stoppers in north Wales (principally the Llandudno-Liverpool/Manchester services, which I suggest be formed of 4-cars (2 x 2-car units)) and when the DEMUs arrive use them to create the new Swansea Bay Metro (eg. Onllwyn, Cwmgwrach/Hirwaun and Gwaun-Cae-Gurwen to Swansea) and (if you can gauge-clear them*) to displace the tram-trains from the Aberdare/Merthyr/Treherbert routes to Coryton - Cardff Bay - Tremorfa - Cardiff Parkway

* if you can't, the variation might also require a reduction in the total number of units ordered

 

[cle]

Off the back of Llandudno-Liverpool, won't this service also run hourly to Shrewsbury and two-hourly to Cardiff? With a Chester split. Is there enough stock for this?

And how might it be timetabled against Cardiff - North Wales services?