How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[Richard Scott]

If we had done what France did, might we be in the position France is in now, with rapidly rising infections?

In contrast, countries like Sweden continue to see cases reduce.

The only way anyone could conclude the French method is better than the Swedish method (and it's far too early for that now!) is if the hospitalisation and death rates are much lower now than earlier on in the pandemic; in other words if the huge uptick in infections in places like France right now doesn't really matter, as the real danger has passed. But if that's going to be the conclusion, we are damaging the economy, mental health, peoples' livelihoods unnecessarily.

You can't have it both ways!

This is what it looks like is happening to all those countries that locked down quickly, their infection rates are rising quickly. Although it seems deaths aren't following. Would appear a number of countries with many deaths early on were due to issues with care homes. In reality we just need to get on now and let this virus run its course as sitting waiting for a vaccine is likely to be more counter productive than just getting on with life.

 

[Class 33]

Sunday's deaths was 1, yesterday's deaths was 2, and today's deaths were 3. Today's deaths being just 3 was a real surprise, as was expecting a climb up to somewhere in the 10's again as Tuesday's are usually the highest number of deaths of the week, but no just THREE this Tuesday! There's no doubt about it, these daily deaths really are incredibly low now. Looks like this coming week and beyond, the rolling 7 day average should be 5 or lower.

I've been sick and tired of social distancing and wanting it to be scrapped, since May now. But back then the daily deaths were still in the 300's, 400's and 500's. Even me appreciated those figures were far too high really to scrap social distancing, and knew there was no chance the government would do so. I did think at the time that once the daily average was consistently below 50, then that would be the right time to scrap social distancing. We are now way WAY below those figures! If this nonsense still drags on and on and on whilst the deaths stats are this low(and still continueing to fall week on week), then this is just madness and insanity beyond belief!

Now is the time that Boris and his cabinet should be holding meetings on how and when social distancing AND face mask wearing should be scrapped, or at least starting a phase of easing of both. Instead of nonsense like Matt Hancock said this week that "Social distancing will need to continue for the forseeable future until a vaccine is found."!!!! It could be a year or so, if atall even, that a vaccine is found. We can't continue with this madness and the damage it is doing to businesses, people's livelihoods and mental health until then or indefinitely! C'mon Boris, now is high time for you to plan to get this country back to normal again, by scrapping social distancing and face mask wearing. And besides he did say this may be possible from November at the earliest, perhaps in time for Christmas.

 

[LAX54]

Sunday's deaths was 1, yesterday's deaths was 2, and today's deaths were 3. Today's deaths being just 3 was a real surprise, as was expecting a climb up to somewhere in the 10's again as Tuesday's are usually the highest number of deaths of the week, but no just THREE this Tuesday! There's no doubt about it, these daily deaths really are incredibly low now. Looks like this coming week and beyond, the rolling 7 day average should be 5 or lower.

I've been sick and tired of social distancing and wanting it to be scrapped, since May now. But back then the daily deaths were still in the 300's, 400's and 500's. Even me appreciated those figures were far too high really to scrap social distancing, and knew there was no chance the government would do so. I did think at the time that once the daily average was consistently below 50, then that would be the right time to scrap social distancing. We are now way WAY below those figures! If this nonsense still drags on and on and on whilst the deaths stats are this low(and still continueing to fall week on week), then this is just madness and insanity beyond belief!

Now is the time that Boris and his cabinet should be holding meetings on how and when social distancing AND face mask wearing should be scrapped, or at least starting a phase of easing of both. Instead of nonsense like Matt Hancock said this week that "Social distancing will need to continue for the forseeable future until a vaccine is found."!!!! It could be a year or so, if atall even, that a vaccine is found. We can't continue with this madness and the damage it is doing to businesses, people's livelihoods and mental health until then or indefinitely! C'mon Boris, now is high time for you to plan to get this country back to normal again, by scrapping social distancing and face mask wearing. And besides he did say this may be possible from November at the earliest, perhaps in time for Christmas.

Alos should the reports about 'positive cases' only report the really bad cases, not the mild what could be termed everyday 'flu type' case ?

 

[DB]

Alos should the reports about 'positive cases' only report the really bad cases, not the mild what could be termed everyday 'flu type' case ?

I guess the hospitalization figure should do that to sn extent.

 

[Domh245]

oday's deaths being just 3 was a real surprise, as was expecting a climb up to somewhere in the 10's again as Tuesday's are usually the highest number of deaths of the week, but no just THREE this Tuesday! There's no doubt about it, these daily deaths really are incredibly low now.

The fact that yesterday was a bank holiday will have skewed today's figures. I expect tomorrow will have the usual 'tuesday bounce' but it doesn't detract from the point that the number of deaths is especially small now

 

[trebor79]

Alos should the reports about 'positive cases' only report the really bad cases, not the mild what could be termed everyday 'flu type' case ?

Positive cases should be positive cases, the current measure. But...
If you are testing 200,000 people a day, perhaps 400 will be false positives. And...
In our local outbreak of 100 cases in a poultry processing plant, only a handful actually felt at all unwell.

So, we need to bear in mind that around a third of the currently reported cases are in fact false positives. Of the remaining two thirds, only a small portion as actually unwell.

I do not understand why we continue to trash the economy. Government needs to get a grip and massively change the messaging. It appears we've worked out how to keep care homes safe, so there's no reason the rest of us can't get on with our lives.
I have decided I will be giving up on my voluntary mask wearing (I'm exempt but don't always go naked) as it appears I've picked up a bacterial infection in my chest. I'm sure it's nothing whatsoever to do with having a damp piece of cloth over my face, but just to be on the safe side I shall remove that from the equation.
I gave up on distancing some time ago. If people want to leap of of the way then they can do so, but I really couldn't give a monkeys for any of it now.

 

[talldave]

I have decided I will be giving up on my voluntary mask wearing (I'm exempt but don't always go naked) as it appears I've picked up a bacterial infection in my chest. I'm sure it's nothing whatsoever to do with having a damp piece of cloth over my face, but just to be on the safe side I shall remove that from the equation.

Sorry to hear that, but I predicted this would happen .

 

[Jamesrob637]

Sunday's deaths was 1, yesterday's deaths was 2, and today's deaths were 3. Today's deaths being just 3 was a real surprise, as was expecting a climb up to somewhere in the 10's again as Tuesday's are usually the highest number of deaths of the week, but no just THREE this Tuesday! There's no doubt about it, these daily deaths really are incredibly low now. Looks like this coming week and beyond, the rolling 7 day average should be 5 or lower.

I've been sick and tired of social distancing and wanting it to be scrapped, since May now. But back then the daily deaths were still in the 300's, 400's and 500's. Even me appreciated those figures were far too high really to scrap social distancing, and knew there was no chance the government would do so. I did think at the time that once the daily average was consistently below 50, then that would be the right time to scrap social distancing. We are now way WAY below those figures! If this nonsense still drags on and on and on whilst the deaths stats are this low(and still continueing to fall week on week), then this is just madness and insanity beyond belief!

Now is the time that Boris and his cabinet should be holding meetings on how and when social distancing AND face mask wearing should be scrapped, or at least starting a phase of easing of both. Instead of nonsense like Matt Hancock said this week that "Social distancing will need to continue for the forseeable future until a vaccine is found."!!!! It could be a year or so, if atall even, that a vaccine is found. We can't continue with this madness and the damage it is doing to businesses, people's livelihoods and mental health until then or indefinitely! C'mon Boris, now is high time for you to plan to get this country back to normal again, by scrapping social distancing and face mask wearing. And besides he did say this may be possible from November at the earliest, perhaps in time for Christmas.

Wednesday is Tuesday is Monday if that makes sense. Just for this week. But the toll shouldn't be higher than 20 in all settings even allowing for a three-day lag due to the Bank Holiday.

 

[AM9]

Maybe there should be another metric, - the number of cases where recovery isn't just like a cold, i.e. where recovery is sufficiently slow to require extended absence from normal life including work and leisure pursuits. Focusing on deaths is a very low hurdle as there are many who suffer long-term debilitating conditions, some of which might even be life-changing.

 

[DB]

many who suffer long-term debilitating conditions, some of which might even be life-changing.

Please provide a source for this claim of 'many'. Everything I've seen indicates a very small proportion, and even the most scaremongering-prone of the media haven't tried to claim otherwise.

 

[Bantamzen]

Please provide a source for this claim of 'many'. Everything I've seen indicates a very small proportion, and even the most scaremongering-prone of the media haven't tried to claim otherwise.

There is very little hard evidence, like a lot of things covid-wise its a perception based on some dubious media reporting. Some outlets did seem to be going out of their way to find "evidence", but thus far few studies have been completed & so this "evidence" is more anecdotal than scientific.

Like all illnesses there will likely be some effects after the virus has been destroyed, much of which will be side-effects from the increased activity from the immune system. As medical science comes to understand it more, so more support can be offered to those who might be suffering longer than expected without the need to create another pseudo-panic. Looking around a number of medical sites there does seem to be some cases of things like lung damage, but these seem to be more associated with patients that have been on ventilators so this isn't exactly a surprise to medics. However with the number of people on these falling, so the most serious risks around the those kind of treatments will be reduced.

For the most part it seems tiredness, joint aches & general reduced feeling of wellness appear to be the main "long term effects". But for many of us who have not displayed symptoms of covid, these ailments are equally common & are doubtless a result of long periods of working from home, being furloughed, being isolated or just having to put up with a reduced quality of life. Thinking about it, perhaps these should be the decision making measurements?

 

[AM9]

Please provide a source for this claim of 'many'. Everything I've seen indicates a very small proportion, and even the most scaremongering-prone of the media haven't tried to claim otherwise.

As I said,

Maybe there should be another metric,

We would all know then.

 

[LAX54]

Sorry to hear that, but I predicted this would happen .

Have not some Dental Surgeons reported an increase on mouth and tooth issues since the mandate to wear masks, probably due to people wearing 'one use/disposable' masks time and time again

 

[bramling]

Maybe there should be another metric, - the number of cases where recovery isn't just like a cold, i.e. where recovery is sufficiently slow to require extended absence from normal life including work and leisure pursuits. Focusing on deaths is a very low hurdle as there are many who suffer long-term debilitating conditions, some of which might even be life-changing.

Agreed. I would certainly like to know more about this, yet little seems to be said or written about this. I do tend to agree with the general view on here that this *seems* not to be that widespread, or else we’d be hearing a lot more about it.

 

[westv]

Have not some Dental Surgeons reported an increase on mouth and tooth issues since the mandate to wear masks, probably due to people wearing 'one use/disposable' masks time and time again

I thought it had something to do with breathing through the mouth. I'm sure I read at some point in the past that athletes can suffer from teeth problems for the same reason.

 

[Bikeman78]

Who are these people then? Almost everyone I know is fed up with the whole thing and wants to get on with life. I've not been surveyed and nor has anyone I know so how do we know this? Just going by social media posts? May I suggest those that want to be cautious have next to no idea about severity of, or apparent lack of, this virus and are unable to weigh up advantages/disadvantages to restrictions? Unless government is going to a proper survey then can do without blanket statements about what the public wants.

I've been in Liverpool this week and life seems to be going on as normal. Merseyrail quite busy, wedged at times. Buses wedged in the evening. Shopping streets full of pedestrians, McDonalds was packed.

 

[Richard Scott]

I've been in Liverpool this week and life seems to be going on as normal. Merseyrail quite busy, wedged at times. Buses wedged in the evening. Shopping streets full of pedestrians, McDonalds was packed.

Was like that a few weeks ago when I went. Apart from masks on trains and signs (and out of use seats on Northern trains, although this was ignored) was all refreshingly normal. There must be a huge increase in virus numbers due to all this normal activity going on?!!!

 

[Bikeman78]

Was like that a few weeks ago when I went. Apart from masks on trains and signs (and out of use seats on Northern trains, although this was ignored) was all refreshingly normal. There must be a huge increase in virus numbers due to all this normal activity going on?!!!

Northern has abandoned the out of use seat labels. There are some randomly still in place on most units. On TFW all window seats are now available with aisle seats still marked out of use.

 

[Class 33]

Wednesday is Tuesday is Monday if that makes sense. Just for this week. But the toll shouldn't be higher than 20 in all settings even allowing for a three-day lag due to the Bank Holiday.

Ah yes, I had forgot that it was a Bank Holiday Monday and not a "normal" Monday! So hence the very low figures released yesterday.

I too was expecting a hike up to around the late 10's or early 20's today. But no, we were wrong thankfully wrong, and today's deaths is just THREE. I think the 7-day average this week will be between 3 and 4, and yet another further decrease in the 7-day average. We really are at very very low deaths now. Time to move on, start releasing these social distancing and face mask wearing guidelines/laws, and start getting this country back to normal again. We can't go on for much longer now with this "New normal" nonsense.

 

[matt]

Ah yes, I had forgot that it was a Bank Holiday Monday and not a "normal" Monday! So hence the very low figures released yesterday.

I too was expecting a hike up to around the late 10's or early 20's today. But no, we were wrong thankfully wrong, and today's deaths is just THREE. I think the 7-day average this week will be between 3 and 4, and yet another further decrease in the 7-day average. We really are at very very low deaths now. Time to move on, start releasing these social distancing and face mask wearing guidelines/laws, and start getting this country back to normal again. We can't go on for much longer now with this "New normal" nonsense.

Today's total is 10. Yesterday was 3.

 

[Huntergreed]

Ah yes, I had forgot that it was a Bank Holiday Monday and not a "normal" Monday! So hence the very low figures released yesterday.

I too was expecting a hike up to around the late 10's or early 20's today. But no, we were wrong thankfully wrong, and today's deaths is just THREE. I think the 7-day average this week will be between 3 and 4, and yet another further decrease in the 7-day average. We really are at very very low deaths now. Time to move on, start releasing these social distancing and face mask wearing guidelines/laws, and start getting this country back to normal again. We can't go on for much longer now with this "New normal" nonsense.

I think the main reasoning behind restrictions right now is because they’re afraid it might get worse as the flue season kicks in and they don’t want the NHS overwhelmed. If, we I hope happens, this isn’t the case and the virus stays under control in winter, then as Boris has said I imagine we can, or at least we can hope, to lose all restrictions in November (although I still think that’s far too late for a lot of them myself).

 

[Class 33]

Today's total is 10. Yesterday was 3.

So it is. But it did actually show as 3 when the Gov Coronavirus dashboard was updated just now. But unfortunately a mistake, as I see they've now corrected it to 10.

 

[Richard Scott]

I think the main reasoning behind restrictions right now is because they’re afraid it might get worse as the flue season kicks in and they don’t want the NHS overwhelmed. If, we I hope happens, this isn’t the case and the virus stays under control in winter, then as Boris has said I imagine we can, or at least we can hope, to lose all restrictions in November (although I still think that’s far too late for a lot of them myself).

Problem is there's always another event that is 'guaranteed' to send cases spiralling. First it was being allowed to meet up, then pubs and restaurants opening and so it goes on. We need a definite end to all restrictions irrespective of what happens to numbers of infections. If hospital admissions threaten to overwhelm the NHS then maybe we can consider localised restrictions where that may be the case.

 

[DB]

I think the main reasoning behind restrictions right now is because they’re afraid it might get worse as the flue season kicks in and they don’t want the NHS overwhelmed. If, we I hope happens, this isn’t the case and the virus stays under control in winter, then as Boris has said I imagine we can, or at least we can hope, to lose all restrictions in November (although I still think that’s far too late for a lot of them myself).

The NHS is so far off from being overwhelmed that this policy is rather ridiculous...

 

[Class 33]

I think the main reasoning behind restrictions right now is because they’re afraid it might get worse as the flue season kicks in and they don’t want the NHS overwhelmed. If, we I hope happens, this isn’t the case and the virus stays under control in winter, then as Boris has said I imagine we can, or at least we can hope, to lose all restrictions in November (although I still think that’s far too late for a lot of them myself).

Yes, hopefully we can keep this under control, and we can finally lose all restrictions in November(I too think that's far too late, given the damage "social distancing" in particular has done(and still continuing) to the economy. But after Boris saying that, a week or so later he then said "We may be able to relax restrictions around the middle of next year.", and also Matt Hancock this week "Social distancing must continue for the forseeable future until a vaccine is found."!! Despite these conflicting comments from Boris and Matt Hancock, I'm really really hoping that November(ideally the 1st November) they will HAVE to scrap social distancing, due to the furlough scheme ending meaning there will be millions more job cuts and millions more unemployed!

I think there needs to a Boris press conference pretty soon now. It's been over a month since the last one. And some tough questions asked about their plans on getting the UK back to normal, now that these deaths are incredibly low now(they are wrong to keep concentrating on the numbers of new cases).

 

[MikeWM]

I think the main reasoning behind restrictions right now is because they’re afraid it might get worse as the flue season kicks in and they don’t want the NHS overwhelmed. If, we I hope happens, this isn’t the case and the virus stays under control in winter, then as Boris has said I imagine we can, or at least we can hope, to lose all restrictions in November (although I still think that’s far too late for a lot of them myself).

I still don't see much logic behind the November date, as I've mentioned a few times. A bad flu season would materialise in December or January.

If you don't remove the restrictions now, there's little logic in doing so until next Spring.

(Though to be fair, there has been little or no logic in pretty much any other decision made so far, so that analysis is probably moot).

I think there needs to a Boris press conference pretty soon now.

Be careful what you wish for! Every time we've had one of those recently we end up with more mandatory places for wearing masks (or more local lockdowns, or similar).

 

[HSTEd]

Once restrictions were imposed it was functionally impossible to remove them.

Just as it was extraordinarily difficult to reopen schools once they were closed.

 

[Bantamzen]

Once restrictions were imposed it was functionally impossible to remove them.

Just as it was extraordinarily difficult to reopen schools once they were closed.

Very well said, the restrictions were applied with almost no thought as to how to dial them back. And having terrified much of the public into believing that this virus was insta-death, they now have no idea how to dial back the fear they induced. What a cluster-<beep>....

 

[CaptainHaddock]

Northern has abandoned the out of use seat labels. There are some randomly still in place on most units. On TFW all window seats are now available with aisle seats still marked out of use.

Not quite true. On 170 and 195 units Northern still have out of use labels on the seats nearest the doors. Happily most passengers ignore them, including me!

 

[Romsey]

I thought it had something to do with breathing through the mouth. I'm sure I read at some point in the past that athletes can suffer from teeth problems for the same reason.

That is if your dentist will even see you. It's taken nearly 18 months to get a check up with cancellations, then covid19. They won't do anything unless you're in pain. (Then direct you to A&E.)

This was sent in June ..


I've had a number of tries at getting an appointment since then, I wonder what their definition of regular dental care is?

Looks like I'll be changing dentist again...