How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[Nicholas Lewis]

With all these millions of vaccinations now and all the Coronavirus stats falling week on week now, they just won't be able to keep social distancing going for too much longer. Certainly by a few months from now, there is just going to be no valid justification to keep this nonsense going much longer. Social distancing alone is just absolutely killing many businesses in the hospitality, leisure and travel industry. I think many business leaders in those sectors are going to pressure on Johnson to scrap social distancing over the coming months, so that their businesses can get back to normal. The government have got to help these businesses now.

Some conflict with what two government ministers said yesterday though. Liz Truss saying "It's far too early to say when restrictions can be lifted.". Whilst Matt Hancock said "We can look forward to a great British carefree summer in 6 months time.". Hancock is right in that by 6 months time we should certainly be able to look forward to a great British carefree summer in 6 months. In fact with the way things are going, it should be by about 4 months really, that all restrictions are lifted including this ridiculous social distancing and face mask wearing nonsense we've had to put up with for far too long now. Although whether the government will have scrapped all this nonsense by 6 months from now we'll have to see. All these so called "experts" saying social distancing will have to continue until the end of the year, are absolutely appalling, and I wish they'd just bog off.

Its right ministers should keep tight lipped on dates but its not right that the exit strategy is being held back for so long. This appears to be so it can include dates which will be a mistake as the roadmap is just that a strategy that will determine what, when and where as the criteria are fulfilled and then can be progressively given dates. Govt also need to be clear about what the end game is here as zero covid is unachievable but is the want of many vs an environment that contains the worst effects at a level that society will accept so a new normal can be established.

 

[WelshBluebird]

I don’t think it is hyperbole. I don’t think it will happen, but there’s going to be some who can’t let their fear of all this go, or in some cases who would be prepared to trade restrictions for not having to go to work. I don’t think these people will win the day, but they are going to try, and they need to be resisted.

Oh come on.
Suggesting that a permanent ban on socialising is going to happen and the rule of six is going to be with us for good absolutely is hyperbole. Those things are clearly never going to happen on a long term basis. They just aren't.

I’m with 6862. Now they’ve locked the population in and made them scared to go out, why would they ever let us out?

Well apart from that:

• People will only put up with the restrictions for the time being.
• Businesses are losing huge amounts of money.
• The government cannot afford to continue the current situation (e.g. furlough etc) for much longer.
• Despite what people on this forum seem to think - I very much doubt the government like the fact they have all of this in place. For example the very idea of a Tory government paying people's wages is so far out of their usual comfort zone that they aren't going to stay there for long.
• The cynic in me feels that the government would much rather people are able to distract themselves with going out and getting hammered on a Saturday night so that every single thing the government does isn't under as much of a microscope.

 

[yorksrob]

[*]The cynic in me feels that the government would much rather people are able to distract themselves with going out and getting hammered on a Saturday night so that every single thing the government does isn't under as much of a microscope.
[/LIST]

That would work for me.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Case below 20k and lowest since 7th Dec, hospital admissions dropping and at regional level in L&SE we are now getting discharge ratio exceeding admissions by 25-30% on average.

So on the 15/2 review it plausible that case rates will be below 10k and hospitalisations below first peak again and a downward trend that will be matching first wave. So they know what outcome the rate of relaxation gave on wave one so with the benefit of vaccinations and over 4m people who will have tested positive (plus many more in the community) this will be acting as a significant moderator. There is no reason not to get schools and some limited hospitality open during March but i fear even the CRG have been duped into holding restrictions on for longer now only Swayne provides any sort of alternative voice.

 

[DorkingMain]

It was reported a few weeks ago that the government is considering moving the whole of England straight from the current restrictions in Tier 2, possibly with some amendments to what is allowed in Tier 2, such as limited household mixing and pubs not required to serve substantial meals or close at 10pm. Only time will tell whether this is true or not.

If this is true, whilst not ideal, I could certainly live with it.

I'm a young(ish) gay man, and I live on my own, so being able to mix households in a limited capacity + being able to visit things recreationally (e.g. pubs) are the main things I'm looking for.

Case below 20k and lowest since 7th Dec, hospital admissions dropping and at regional level in L&SE we are now getting discharge ratio exceeding admissions by 25-30% on average.

So on the 15/2 review it plausible that case rates will be below 10k and hospitalisations below first peak again and a downward trend that will be matching first wave. So they know what outcome the rate of relaxation gave on wave one so with the benefit of vaccinations and over 4m people who will have tested positive (plus many more in the community) this will be acting as a significant moderator. There is no reason not to get schools and some limited hospitality open during March but i fear even the CRG have been duped into holding restrictions on for longer now only Swayne provides any sort of alternative voice.

The trouble is Swayne is currently mired in unhelpful anti-vaccination nonsense.

I'm not in favour of total lockdown - I think it would make limited difference if we had a "lockdown" or the Tier 2 restrictions as described above - the virus seems to have fluctuated regardless, except in a few key settings. However, vaccination is very helpful - if the target of all this is to save the vulnerable from dying we need to give maximum encouragement to those who are most at risk of death to take it.

 

[ChrisC]

Case below 20k and lowest since 7th Dec, hospital admissions dropping and at regional level in L&SE we are now getting discharge ratio exceeding admissions by 25-30% on average.

So on the 15/2 review it plausible that case rates will be below 10k and hospitalisations below first peak again and a downward trend that will be matching first wave. So they know what outcome the rate of relaxation gave on wave one so with the benefit of vaccinations and over 4m people who will have tested positive (plus many more in the community) this will be acting as a significant moderator. There is no reason not to get schools and some limited hospitality open during March but i fear even the CRG have been duped into holding restrictions on for longer now only Swayne provides any sort of alternative voice.

Also good to see that at last levels are coming down in most of those areas of the country where they had remained very high and even last week were still rising. At last levels are falling in Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire, South Yorkshire and even Leicester. Hospital admissions are still extremely high in these areas but hopefully they will soon begin to fall.

Great news. I was beginning to get a bit concerned that levels had remained so high for weeks and were not falling in many areas of Nottinghamshire. Now that infection levels are falling almost countrywide perhaps there is more likelihood of restrictions slowly being lifted on a national level without some areas being left in what seems like never ending lockdowns.

 

[VauxhallandI]

If this is true, whilst not ideal, I could certainly live with it.

I'm a young(ish) gay man, and I live on my own, so being able to mix households in a limited capacity + being able to visit things recreationally (e.g. pubs) are the main things I'm looking for.


The trouble is Swayne is currently mired in unhelpful anti-vaccination nonsense.

I'm not in favour of total lockdown - I think it would make limited difference if we had a "lockdown" or the Tier 2 restrictions as described above - the virus seems to have fluctuated regardless, except in a few key settings. However, vaccination is very helpful - if the target of all this is to save the vulnerable from dying we need to give maximum encouragement to those who are most at risk of death to take it.

How do you define “young(ish)”?

 

[Solent&Wessex]

Also good to see that at last levels are coming down in most of those areas of the country where they had remained very high and even last week were still rising. At last levels are falling in Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire, South Yorkshire and even Leicester. Hospital admissions are still extremely high in these areas but hopefully they will soon begin to fall.

Great news. I was beginning to get a bit concerned that levels had remained so high for weeks and were not falling in many areas of Nottinghamshire. Now that infection levels are falling almost countrywide perhaps there is more likelihood of restrictions slowly being lifted on a national level without some areas being left in what seems like never ending lockdowns.

Agreed. West Yorkshire is also falling, albeit at a slower rate than some other places, which is good and will hopefully mean we don't get stuck in perpetual lockdown. Somewhat annoyingly of course some places which had far higher rates than parts of West Yorkshire a few weeks ago have dropped significantly and shot down well below West Yorkshire again meaning that in most cases we are at or above the national average again.

In general terms I do think this time there needs to be a coordinated national lifting of restrictions at the same time everywhere as having very localised restrictions on which shops can open or how people can socialise really didn't help that much previously.

 

[DorkingMain]

How do you define “young(ish)”?

Early 30s

Agreed. West Yorkshire is also falling, albeit at a slower rate than some other places, which is good and will hopefully mean we don't get stuck in perpetual lockdown. Somewhat annoyingly of course some places which had far higher rates than parts of West Yorkshire a few weeks ago have dropped significantly and shot down well below West Yorkshire again meaning that in most cases we are at or above the national average again.

In general terms I do think this time there needs to be a coordinated national lifting of restrictions at the same time everywhere as having very localised restrictions on which shops can open or how people can socialise really didn't help that much previously.

There's something to be said for the tier system actually causing rises in certain locations as everyone flocked to them to get around the restrictions - there were huge surges in Liverpool for example right after they became the only place in the North West in Tier 2

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Agreed. West Yorkshire is also falling, albeit at a slower rate than some other places, which is good and will hopefully mean we don't get stuck in perpetual lockdown. Somewhat annoyingly of course some places which had far higher rates than parts of West Yorkshire a few weeks ago have dropped significantly and shot down well below West Yorkshire again meaning that in most cases we are at or above the national average again.

In general terms I do think this time there needs to be a coordinated national lifting of restrictions at the same time everywhere as having very localised restrictions on which shops can open or how people can socialise really didn't help that much previously.

On Xmas day we had areas with a 7 day average of 1500/100k highest place is now just over 500/100k. We also have Devon which is doing an extraordinary job in driving cases down to the lowest in England and the lowest on the UK mainland with top 5 English areas, including Exeter , in Devon now and well into Tier 2 territory. However, they won't reap any benefit on relaxing restrictions which is wrong message to send.

I'm not in favour of total lockdown - I think it would make limited difference if we had a "lockdown" or the Tier 2 restrictions as described above - the virus seems to have fluctuated regardless, except in a few key settings. However, vaccination is very helpful - if the target of all this is to save the vulnerable from dying we need to give maximum encouragement to those who are most at risk of death to take it.

Indeed but if people chose not to take it and as a result the metrics don't get as low as govt perceives as necessary they can't hold the majority of the population in perpetual restrictions.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

On Xmas day we had areas with a 7 day average of 1500/100k highest place is now just over 500/100k. We also have Devon which is doing an extraordinary job in driving cases down to the lowest in England and the lowest on the UK mainland with top 5 English areas, including Exeter , in Devon now and well into Tier 2 territory. However, they won't reap any benefit on relaxing restrictions which is wrong message to send.

I'm not sure I buy this argument any more.

Call it sour grapes if you will but my council area in West Yorkshire has been under local restrictions banning inter-household mixing in various forms since August last year. This is despite my part of the council area having usually consistently low and below average rates per 100k. The same applies for many other areas round the edges of the district. However despite all our work and keeping our rates low, and getting them down again on the odd occasion they have risen we are always lumped together with the major city which has consistently had high rates (except for a brief period around December when the rest of the country overtook us but is now dropping back below us again). So we never get "rewarded". In fact it's normally the opposite - we get punished with restrictions because the city and it's suburbs (which most people locally don't associate with, don't work or shop in and tend to avoid) can never really get it's rates low, no matter what restrictions are imposed.

Having varying very localised restrictions only imposes resentment which ultimately encourages rule breaking and non compliance as there never appears an end in sight no matter what you do. It also causes additional issues in so far as people cross a few miles into a different area to do whatever they can't do where they live.

On this occasion, and having observed that in most cases the local restrictions have little significant effect, it is only sensible to lift restrictions nationally unless there is a major and very significant flare up.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I'm not sure I buy this argument any more.

Call it sour grapes if you will but my council area in West Yorkshire has been under local restrictions banning inter-household mixing in various forms since August last year. This is despite my part of the council area having usually consistently low and below average rates per 100k. The same applies for many other areas round the edges of the district. However despite all our work and keeping our rates low, and getting them down again on the odd occasion they have risen we are always lumped together with the major city which has consistently had high rates (except for a brief period around December when the rest of the country overtook us but is now dropping back below us again). So we never get "rewarded". In fact it's normally the opposite - we get punished with restrictions because the city and it's suburbs (which most people locally don't associate with, don't work or shop in and tend to avoid) can never really get it's rates low, no matter what restrictions are imposed.

Having varying very localised restrictions only imposes resentment which ultimately encourages rule breaking and non compliance as there never appears an end in sight no matter what you do. It also causes additional issues in so far as people cross a few miles into a different area to do whatever they can't do where they live.

On this occasion, and having observed that in most cases the local restrictions have little significant effect, it is only sensible to lift restrictions nationally unless there is a major and very significant flare up.

Thats one way of achieving levelling up but sounds more like levelling down to the lowest denominator and could leave us under restrictions indefinitely.

The devolved nations will do there own thing so England should at least be managed on a regional basis.

 

[Lampshade]

I'm not sure I buy this argument any more.

Call it sour grapes if you will but my council area in West Yorkshire has been under local restrictions banning inter-household mixing in various forms since August last year. This is despite my part of the council area having usually consistently low and below average rates per 100k. The same applies for many other areas round the edges of the district. However despite all our work and keeping our rates low, and getting them down again on the odd occasion they have risen we are always lumped together with the major city which has consistently had high rates (except for a brief period around December when the rest of the country overtook us but is now dropping back below us again). So we never get "rewarded". In fact it's normally the opposite - we get punished with restrictions because the city and it's suburbs (which most people locally don't associate with, don't work or shop in and tend to avoid) can never really get it's rates low, no matter what restrictions are imposed.

Having varying very localised restrictions only imposes resentment which ultimately encourages rule breaking and non compliance as there never appears an end in sight no matter what you do. It also causes additional issues in so far as people cross a few miles into a different area to do whatever they can't do where they live.

On this occasion, and having observed that in most cases the local restrictions have little significant effect, it is only sensible to lift restrictions nationally unless there is a major and very significant flare up.

Seconded. I'm in Lancashire and even though cases we're either average or below average for this borough, the whole county was put into tier 3 because of Burnley and Pendle (yes I'm pointing the finger directly at them).

Come to think of it, Lancashire and GM never really left lockdown 1.

 

[anthony263]

I think Hancock and our chancellor cane see what's coming unless they ease restrictions soon.

The riots of 2011 will look like child's play

 

[Gadget88]

Isle of Man wow shame we don’t all live there

 

[Class 33]

Isle of Man wow shame we don’t all live there

Indeed. I for one am extremely envious that over there social distancing and face mask wearing have been completely scrapped. I can't wait till that day comes here. It's been a bloody long wait so far.

But as mentioned all the Coronavirus stats are really coming down now. Just look at how the number of new cases have dropped over the past few weeks. Deaths are heading south now. I predict that by the end of the week they'll be down about 15% on a 7 day average level. And as the weeks go on that will increase steadily. Hospital admissions and numbers in hospital also coming down too. There may be some fluctuations on a day to day basis, but on a 7 day average basis, there's only one way all these stats are heading now, and that's DOWN! In a few months time there will be no valid justifications atall to keep all these ridiculous restrictions going. They'll have to be lifted, so we can get this country back to normal again.

 

[chris11256]

Looks like the government will roll back on any easing plans. The kent variant has mutated again.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55900625

UK variant has mutated again, scientists say​

Kent variant of coronavirus that has been spreading around the UK appears to be undergoing some worrying new genetic changes, say scientists.
Tests on some samples show a mutation, called E484K, already seen in the South Africa and Brazil variants that are of concern.
Although this change may affect vaccine effectiveness, the current ones in use should still work, say experts.
The UK has already stepped up measures to control the spread of new variants.
Urgent testing for the South Africa variant is starting in parts of England and travel restrictions have been introduced to stop more cases entering from abroad.
Experts have only found a handful of cases of the UK variant with the E484K mutation.
It does not mean that this mutation is present in all versions of this variant.

It's not unexpected that variants are appearing or that they will continue to change - all viruses mutate as they make new copies of themselves to spread and thrive.

Government was very keen to emphasise that having no new varitants was one of their conditions for easing lockdown.

 

[yorksrob]

Looks like the government will roll back on any easing plans. The kent varient has mutated again.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55900625



Government was very keen to emphasise that having no new varitents was one of their conditions for easing lockdown.

It would be better not to know this stuff frankly. I mean, what's the use.

 

[Class 33]

Looks like the government will roll back on any easing plans. The kent varient has mutated again.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55900625



Government was very keen to emphasise that having no new varitents was one of their conditions for easing lockdown.

Oh for goodness sake. This is a nightmare! Always something to go and mess things up again. Just when things were beginning to look REALLY positive with all these stats coming down!

 

[Solent&Wessex]

Government was very keen to emphasise that having no new varitents was one of their conditions for easing lockdown.

Well we'll be in lockdown for ever then because, as the article says, viruses mutate all the time.

 

[Mag_seven]

Looks like the government will roll back on any easing plans. The kent variant has mutated again.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55900625



Government was very keen to emphasise that having no new varitants was one of their conditions for easing lockdown.

Bearing in mind that viruses (not just COVID) mutate all the time, we might as well be in lockdown forever.

 

[chris11256]

Bearing in mind that viruses (not just COVID) mutate all the time, we might as well be in lockdown forever.

Of course, it what viruses do.

I'm just fully expecting hancock & SAGE to be all over this as a reason not to ease lockdown and renew the restrictions when the legistation expires in March. Although even Hancock has been abnormally positive recently.

 

[Mag_seven]

Well we'll be in lockdown for ever then because, as the article says, viruses mutate all the time.

Indeed - however there is one slight problem with being in lockdown for ever - we can't afford it!

 

[6862]

Government was very keen to emphasise that having no new varitants was one of their conditions for easing lockdown.

This works absolutely perfectly for them - another piece of fear inducing news to batter over the heads of the population to enable them to keep lockdown going for as long as possible.

Indeed - however there is one slight problem with being in lockdown for ever - we can't afford it!

Cost hasn't stopped them so far at any point, why should it stop them now or at any point in the future? We've never been able to afford it, so sadly your point doesn't really stand.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

Indeed - however there is one slight problem with being in lockdown for ever - we can't afford it!

Doesn't mean the Sage Scientists won't be calling for it though!

"We can't release restrictions yet until we have done more tests and have more data about this new variant that has just appeared" will no doubt appear soon and then get repeated numerous times all year.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

We need to follow the Italians and Austrians. Peaceful protest in huge numbers has forced - in the case of the latter - their government to allow non-essential businesses to reopen. The police in Austria even walked with the demonstrators !!!

 

[Domh245]

Compare and contrast BBC reporting with the technical briefing

The COG-UK dataset (total sequences 214,159) was analysed on 26/01/2021. The spike protein mutation E484K (found in VOC 202012/02 B1.351 and VOC 202101/02 P1) has been detected in 11 B1.1.7 sequences. Preliminary information suggests more than one acquisition event.

(my bold)

Note that the COG-UK dataset was about 75% "kent" variant and 25% others

 

[yorksrob]

It will certainly get all of the lockdown fanatics foaming at the mouth again.

 

[roversfan2001]

Government was very keen to emphasise that having no new varitants was one of their conditions for easing lockdown.

Are they off their head? It might come as a shock to them if they ever find out that viruses mutate all the time; always have done, always will.

 

[Mag_seven]

It will certainly get all of the lockdown fanatics foaming at the mouth again.

When the lockdown fanatics start losing their jobs as a result of continued restrictions they will be foaming at the mouth for different reasons.