How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[Yew]

Looks like the government will roll back on any easing plans. The kent variant has mutated again.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55900625



Government was very keen to emphasise that having no new varitants was one of their conditions for easing lockdown.

We need to stop worrying about variants of 'concern', and only worry about variants with clear evidence, beyond reasonable doubt, of behaving in a more dangerous manner.

We need to follow the Italians and Austrians. Peaceful protest in huge numbers has forced - in the case of the latter - their government to allow non-essential businesses to reopen. The police in Austria even walked with the demonstrators !!!

Hopefully this shows that, little by little, the appetite for and acceptability of lockdowns is decreasing.

 

[Richard Scott]

Looks like the government will roll back on any easing plans. The kent variant has mutated again.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55900625



Government was very keen to emphasise that having no new varitants was one of their conditions for easing lockdown.

It really is a case of so what? That's what viruses do. They really can't have any decent advisors if they don't understand this. A mutation doesn't always mean it's a bad thing either. It's total codswallop.

 

[Bantamzen]

Looks like the government will roll back on any easing plans. The kent variant has mutated again.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55900625



Government was very keen to emphasise that having no new varitants was one of their conditions for easing lockdown.

Virus is "mutates all the time" shocker...

Cost hasn't stopped them so far at any point, why should it stop them now or at any point in the future? We've never been able to afford it, so sadly your point doesn't really stand.

That's because the cost is not yet visible to the punters, just wait until after the budget when wage freezes, tax rises, spending cuts become the order of the day.

 

[kristiang85]

I'm dreading the budget. Although part of me actually hopes it's bad, as it might focus the minds of the pro-restriction lobby.

 

[joncombe]

Can't help but feel this was planned. Boris started talking about setting out the plan for lifting lockdown. Next date SAGE come out with another scary mutation....

 

[Freightmaster]

...so what? That's what viruses do. They really can't have any decent advisors if they don't understand this. A mutation doesn't always mean it's a bad thing either. It's total codswallop.

Well yes, but these aren't just any old mutations; they're Marks and Spencer "worrying" mutations.






MARK

 

[Philip]

Can't help but feel this was planned. Boris started talking about setting out the plan for lifting lockdown. Next date SAGE come out with another scary mutation....

That was my thought too.

Said before that I think the current lockdown is necessary, but I really think the government have to be firm in their approach to start the opening up from early March as they implied and to do so purely based on the criteria regarding vaccination progress and case/hospital/death numbers reducing sufficiently, rather than delaying the opening up because of uncertainty surrounding new mutations.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Compare and contrast BBC reporting with the technical briefing


(my bold)

Note that the COG-UK dataset was about 75% "kent" variant and 25% others

The 11 is now 105 from yesterdays briefing and given the lag before symptoms occur it will be many times higher already. At least this time they are jumping on it with enhanced surveillance and testing so that ought to provide some moderation. It still begs disbelief they allowed people to come in from Africa in such an uncontrolled way again for so long. When will the ever learn.

Can't help but feel this was planned. Boris started talking about setting out the plan for lifting lockdown. Next date SAGE come out with another scary mutation....

Remember he has the SAGE minutes in real time if we are lucky what we see is 2-3 weeks old already.

 

[Domh245]

The 11 is now 105 from yesterdays briefing and given the lag before symptoms occur it will be many times higher already. At least this time they are jumping on it with enhanced surveillance and testing so that ought to provide some moderation. It still begs disbelief they allowed people to come in from Africa in such an uncontrolled way again for so long. When will the ever learn.

11 is the number of samples that were the "kent/uk" variant (B1.1.7) that had the South African mutation (E484K) which has led to the spate of stories about "uk variant mutates!" today

105 is the total number of South African variants (B.1.351)

 

[Richard Scott]

The 11 is now 105 from yesterdays briefing and given the lag before symptoms occur it will be many times higher already. At least this time they are jumping on it with enhanced surveillance and testing so that ought to provide some moderation. It still begs disbelief they allowed people to come in from Africa in such an uncontrolled way again for so long. When will the ever learn?

Why worry about it, this is what viruses do? Is there evidence it's any more dangerous? Doubt it. Is it likely? Doubt that also. This is just another virus doing what viruses do. There are people who are paid to advise the government on this, surely they know how viruses behave. Why all of a sudden is this one so different to any of the others? It just scaremongering as majority of people have little to know knowledge of viruses so it's easy to sell them a mistruth.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Why worry about it, this is what viruses do? Is there evidence it's any more dangerous? Doubt it. Is it likely? Doubt that also. This is just another virus doing what viruses do. There are people who are paid to advise the government on this, surely they know how viruses behave. Why all of a sudden is this one so different to any of the others? It just scaremongering as majority of people have little to know knowledge of viruses so it's easy to sell them a mistruth.

Yup virus has mutated 1000's times and we don't hear about those but a couple we do because the hole in one virus will cause real issues. Also as its clear nothing is going to change for a few weeks better to keep pressure on as the stats start telling a better story may result in some slackening in peoples behaviours just when things are looking positive.

 

[brad465]

I am increasingly believing that this strategy will start to fall apart soon, based on recent events/news: we've recently seen stories about the damage to education and future career prospects of those currently at school, today we saw news of a surge in alcohol-related deaths in the pandemic up to September, while all the daily statistics are showing positive trends, having now passed 10 million vaccinations of at least one dose while all the metrics of deaths, hospital admissions, hospital occupation and new cases are all declining.

In other words, the public is becoming more exposed to the collateral damage of all these restrictions, which combined with an improving picture on the Covid front will decrease support and compliance as time wears on.

 

[Class 33]

I am increasingly believing that this strategy will start to fall apart soon, based on recent events/news: we've recently seen stories about the damage to education and future career prospects of those currently at school, today we saw news of a surge in alcohol-related deaths in the pandemic up to September, while all the daily statistics are showing positive trends, having now passed 10 million vaccinations of at least one dose while all the metrics of deaths, hospital admissions, hospital occupation and new cases are all declining.

In other words, the public is becoming more exposed to the collateral damage of all these restrictions, which combined with an improving picture on the Covid front will decrease support and compliance as time wears on.

Indeed so. The COVID stats are all going very much in the right direction now. The likes of Whitty and Vallance won't be able to stand there in any Downing Street News Conferences now saying "Things are very much going in the wrong direction.". And in a month or two the hospital stats should be very much lower, so they or no one else will be able to keep saying "Our hospitals are under a great deal of pressure at the moment.".

The longer all this goes on, the more and more of a mental health crisis will increase(though this hardly gets a mention on the mainstream media). The more and more damage it is doing to the economy. Once all the COVID stats gets much much lower, they'll have to scrap all these silly pointless restrictions sooner rather that later. The likes of so called "experts" saying social distancing must stay till the end of the year can go and do one. By about June a very large bulk of the country's population will be vaccinated, so no need for social distancing and face mask wearing to continue any longer.

 

[HSTEd]

It's worth noting that that Warwick Study saying social distancing to the end of the year made overly pessimistic assumptions about the pace of vaccine rollout and its ability to prevent severe disease.

I am also extremely uncomfortable holding everyone de-facto prisoner in their homes to protect vaccine refuseniks.

It is their right to refuse if they wish, but at the same time society has discharged it's responsibility to them by offering them a vaccine.

 

[brad465]

Indeed so. The COVID stats are all going very much in the right direction now. The likes of Whitty and Vallance won't be able to stand there in any Downing Street News Conferences now saying "Things are very much going in the wrong direction.". And in a month or two the hospital stats should be very much lower, so they or no one else will be able to keep saying "Our hospitals are under a great deal of pressure at the moment.".

The longer all this goes on, the more and more of a mental health crisis will increase(though this hardly gets a mention on the mainstream media). The more and more damage it is doing to the economy. Once all the COVID stats gets much much lower, they'll have to scrap all these silly pointless restrictions sooner rather that later. The likes of so called "experts" saying social distancing must stay till the end of the year can go and do one. By about June a very large bulk of the country's population will be vaccinated, so no need for social distancing and face mask wearing to continue any longer.

This is why I believe the news about mutations has been hyped up recently, however, this narrative will only work for so long, as the more mutations are found and/or spread, the more people will realise we'll have to live with this, especially as vaccines for now remain relatively effective, or can quickly be changed if not.

 

[VauxhallandI]

It's worth noting that that Warwick Study saying social distancing to the end of the year made overly pessimistic assumptions about the pace of vaccine rollout and its ability to prevent severe disease.

I am also extremely uncomfortable holding everyone de-facto prisoner in their homes to protect vaccine refuseniks.

It is their right to refuse if they wish, but at the same time society has discharged it's responsibility to them by offering them a vaccine.

But the zero Covid are using the refuseniks to hang us all

 

[Class 33]

I remember Johnson in some interview last July saying something like "I don't want a world where we're having to keep 2 metres away from other people for the next year. I will look at relaxing those restrictions as soon as I can.". At the time I and others on here commented on these forums that social distancing has to be scrapped way before July 2021. However even though we've got all these miraculous vaccines now and over 10 million have so far been vaccinated and all the hospital numbers and deaths are really coming down now, I get the feeling that he is not in a rush to finally scrap this dreaded social distancing. I think it's either going to be perilously close to 1 year after he said that, that it's finally scrapped, or it's still going to drag on past 1 year after that.

For this year's festival season, for the large bulk of festivals it's either no social distancing atall or no festivals. Social distancing and festivals just don't mix. It's not in the nature of going to festivals and having to always keep 2 metres away from other people! And it's also not financially viable, due to much lower limits on capacity required. Currently it looks like most, if not all festivals that were due to take place in the early part of the season are just not going to be able to go ahead. I think those festivals currently due to take place between July and September still have some chance of being able to go ahead. But it's getting perilously close now that if they don't - within the next 2 to 3 months, get advance notice that social distancing will be scrapped on a certain date and the all clear they can go ahead, then sadly they'll have to cancel their festivals, and once again for the second year in a row the festival season will be completely obliterated, and a number of those festivals may well never return again. Some of the festival season can still be saved, provided Johnson doesn't dilly dally about and dragging social distancing on for much longer than it really should.

Personally, I think with the way things are going now and providing things continue to improve week on week, that by 1st June both social distancing and face mask wearing really needs to be finally scrapped once and for all.

 

[Mojo]

For this year's festival season, for the large bulk of festivals it's either no social distancing atall or no festivals. Social distancing and festivals just don't mix.

It's not just festivals, but also shows that normally take place in the spring and summer that I'm not confident about, these generate crowds but nowhere near as much as festivals.

Chelsea Flower Show which is normally in May has already been postponed to September. I'm looking forward to Gardeners World Live, which was due to take place in June last year and now I'm going June this year, but I doubt it'll happen. Ideal Home Show has already been cancelled.

 

[Class 33]

It's not just festivals, but also shows that normally take place in the spring and summer that I'm not confident about, these generate crowds but nowhere near as much as festivals.

Chelsea Flower Show which is normally in May has already been postponed to September. I'm looking forward to Gardeners World Live, which was due to take place in June last year and now I'm going June this year, but I doubt it'll happen. Ideal Home Show has already been cancelled.

Yes I think a load of festivals/shows/events are sadly going to be cancelled over the coming weeks, if no clarity is given on when restrictions could or will be scrapped. Hopefully the "roadmap" Johnson will publish/announce on 22nd February will give that clarity, although I wouldn't be atall surprised if the scrapping of social distancing doesn't even get mentioned in it. I think though that when the time does finally come when it is announced that social distancing is to be scrapped, that it's going to be at very short notice such as just a week or two in advance! Which will unfortunately not be atall helpful for the organisers of these festivals/shows/events. They would need a lot more notice than just a week or two in advance!

I notice some festivals due to take place in May and June have not been totally cancelled yet, but have been postponed until August and September. Fingers crossed they'll be able to go ahead.

 

[Chester1]

Yes I think a load of festivals/shows/events are sadly going to be cancelled over the coming weeks, if no clarity is given on when restrictions could or will be scrapped. Hopefully the "roadmap" Johnson will publish/announce on 22nd February will give that clarity, although I wouldn't be atall surprised if the scrapping of social distancing doesn't even get mentioned in it. I think though that when the time does finally come when it is announced that social distancing is to be scrapped, that it's going to be at very short notice such as just a week or two in advance! Which will unfortunately not be atall helpful for the organisers of these festivals/shows/events. They would need a lot more notice than just a week or two in advance!

I notice some festivals due to take place in May and June have not been totally cancelled yet, but have been postponed until August and September. Fingers crossed they'll be able to go ahead.

The road maps is an outline for the rest of this year. I think its highly unlikely that all social distancing measures will be gone this year. There will be concerns about new variants and vaccine effectiveness for the rest of this year. There are people who loathe masks and any social distances in public places, I think most of us would be happy to accept it for almost everything reopening. I can't see large crowds being allowed this year.

 

[Class 33]

Well they just can't keep social distancing going for the rest of this year! That would be bloody ridiculous beyond belief! If this stupid nonsense continues for that long, then many many businesses in the hospitality, leisure and travel industry are going to completely collapse. If this drags on and on endlessly for ridiculously stupid reasons, then the likes of cinemas, theatres, festivals, etc could well become things of the past. The government just can't let that happen.

And as mentioned, what about all the unemployed?? It's practically near impossible to get a job whilst these social distancing guidelines are dragging on and on! I've been unemployed a year now as it is. I don't want to end up being unemployed at least another year. The government need to help the unemployed back to work, and that means ending this social distancing nonsense sooner rather than later.

If they drag it out for the rest of the year, they'll then come up with the excuse "We've got January and February coming up, which is always a lot of pressure for the NHS. Therefore we must still continue with social distancing.". And we'll then be into March 2022, and 2 years of social distancing and all the damage it has caused in that time!!!

Within a few months now, I think there will just be no valid justifications to keep all these restrictions still going. And if it does drag on beyond then, then the ramifications of this on the economy and mental health of the nation will be devastating. In fact enough devastation has already been done, because of all this nonsense.

Even Van Tam said last year that when a vaccine is found and rolled out, that there will be no further need for social distancing. I've tried to find exactly what he said in whatever press conference that was. But unable to find it so far, and isn't much fun trying to find it!

I'm prepared to put up with this nonsense until about early July at the latest, but if it drags on beyond that with still no end in sight, then I(along with many millions of people in this country) will not be happy!

They just can't keep us wrapped up in cotton wool for years on end! They can't keep telling us to "stay at least 2 metres apart from other people" indefinitely as though we're ticking time bombs! We're people, not robots!

 

[DB]

The road maps is an outline for the rest of this year. I think its highly unlikely that all social distancing measures will be gone this year. There will be concerns about new variants and vaccine effectiveness for the rest of this year. There are people who loathe masks and any social distances in public places, I think most of us would be happy to accept it for almost everything reopening. I can't see large crowds being allowed this year.

To what purpose? Once the vaccines have been deployed either they work (as is likely), or if not we have to put up with it - there really aren't any more options, and restrictions with no end point and no exit plan are not viable.

 

[joncombe]

Even Van Tam said last year that when a vaccine is found and rolled out, that there will be no further need for social distancing. I've tried to find exactly what he said in whatever press conference that was. But unable to find it so far, and isn't much fun trying to find it!

I remember that conference, but I also don't remember the date. I remember it because (of social distance) he also commented "everyone's fed up of it"

 

[Luke McDonnell]

When do you think we will be legally permitted to mix households indoors at least on a rule of 6 basis? Just asking this question as my friend who is in his 40s has been offered the vaccine - he has actually been offered it before my mum who is in her 60s which I am very happy about as he was nervous about this virus he was offered it because he lives in shared accommodation I think do you think we could see a relaxation of household mixing rules in March or early April at the latest especially if we have good data on vaccines reducing transmission? I would be nice to see him again on a regular basis look forward to that day but at least he should have a good degree of protection when it is relaxed

 

[bramling]

I am increasingly believing that this strategy will start to fall apart soon, based on recent events/news: we've recently seen stories about the damage to education and future career prospects of those currently at school, today we saw news of a surge in alcohol-related deaths in the pandemic up to September, while all the daily statistics are showing positive trends, having now passed 10 million vaccinations of at least one dose while all the metrics of deaths, hospital admissions, hospital occupation and new cases are all declining.

In other words, the public is becoming more exposed to the collateral damage of all these restrictions, which combined with an improving picture on the Covid front will decrease support and compliance as time wears on.

Compliance is already “pick and mix”. The roads in particular as as busy as normal during the day, the only difference to normal is the absence of a high peak and quiet evenings.

 

[Class 33]

I remember that conference, but I also don't remember the date. I remember it because (of social distance) he also commented "everyone's fed up of it"

I do remember the one where he said "everyone's fed up of it.". Though that was a bit after the one where he commented that there would be no further need for social distancing if a vaccine is found, of which that one I actually missed but read on some news website that he said that. I'll see if I can find that one again tomorrow to see what exactly he said in more detail.

But either way, vaccinations began back in December. But if we get to July - some 7 months on from then and probably at least 40 million vaccinations by then, and they're still keeping social distancing dragging on with no end in sight, then it will be absolutely ridiculous beyond belief.

At the start of all this most of us thought that we were temporarily required to social distance to protect the NHS and save lives. Whilst things haven't gone to plan due to the nuisance second wave and new variant that came along and messed things up just as looked like the end may well be in sight, within a few months now thanks to these wonderful vaccines there will be no more pressure on the NHS and any Covid deaths will be very very low. So when we get to that point, there will be just absolutely no need atall to keep social distancing and face mask wearing going any longer.

And some of the other things that Johnson and other ministers have said.....

"These vaccines are our way out of all these restrictions.".

"We are at the final phase of this pandemic now.".

"We can see the light at the end of the tunnel now. We are almost there!" (said by Johnson last month!)

"Everyone's going to have a fantastic summer, doing what they all enjoy." (said by Hancock back in December)

"If everyone can just bear with these restrictions for just a few more months, then we'll be out of all this." (said by Robert Jenrick back in December!)

 

[DorkingMain]

I think trying to tell people who have been vaccinated to maintain restrictions / social distancing will be an incredibly hard sell, and I expect compliance will drop rapidly if they do try to drag this out any longer than it needs to be. We now know that not only does the vaccine prevent almost entirely against severe illness (apparently only 2 of the 12,000 people features in the trial for the AZ vaccine were hospitalised, and that was within the 3 week window for it to take effect), but it also prevents approximately 70-90% of symptomatic transmission (i.e. the likelihood of having the virus in a viable and transmissible state within you is fairly low after vaccination).

End of the day as others have said, the whole sell on these restrictions has been stopping people dying of COVID, and stopping the NHS becoming overwhelmed (it shouldn't be anyway by 30-40k people, but that's another matter). Once those two factors are no longer in the equation, it doesn't really matter how much COVID is swirling about if the maximum it will do is give you a nasty cough.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

I think trying to tell people who have been vaccinated to maintain restrictions / social distancing will be an incredibly hard sell, and I expect compliance will drop rapidly if they do try to drag this out any longer than it needs to

It occurs to me that possibly they are waiting until a certain proportion of them have been done because it would be impossible to police a "you've been jabbed, you can be free" methodology because anyone could say they've been jabbed even if they hadn't... therefore they may be waiting until enough have been done that it makes next to no difference if the rest take advantage immediately...?

 

[Romsey]

Hug Count

xkcd.com

I suspect social distancing and masks will come and go for a couple of years until a stable state is reached. Perhaps this will be once the covid 19 jab is given with your flu jab each year.
Whatever the right or wrong of masks, the lockdown and use of masks seems to have cut the incidence of flu and colds.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

the lockdown and use of masks seems to have cut the incidence of flu and colds.

Yes, but there has also been a considerable drop in in-house mixing, schools being largely closed from the end of December, higher flu jab uptake, greater hand/cough hygiene within the population... etc.

Unless we can turn the clock back 5 months and take "lockdown and use of masks" out of the equation, you can't come to a conclusion that it is those two things in isolation that have cut the incidence of the flu and common cold.