How will passenger flows change with Crossrail?

Horizon22

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Crossrail is possibly only 6 months away from at least running in the core section. Whilst many boroughs and NR routes have tried to predict what passenger flows will change once Crossrail opens fully, I am intrigued to see what the forum things will happen.

Here's a few starters:
  • Ealing Broadway becomes mless of an interchange as more people continue on the train instead of changing for the Central Line
  • Conversely, Abbey Wood become more of an interchange and Southeastern trains become much less busy towards Charing X, Cannon St
  • The Central Line thoughout will obviously become less busy - I think it's generally predicted to be 20-30% but can't find the figures any more
 
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swt_passenger

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I linked to a Network Rail view about the effect on the North Kent line in the main Crossrail thread a few months back.
Although it’s obviously a few years old, I expect the relative split between services will probably be similar. I dare say other route strategy documents might cover the other legs, although I haven’t searched yet.
 

AM9

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Crossrail is possibly only 6 months away from at least running in the core section. Whilst many boroughs and NR routes have tried to predict what passenger flows will change once Crossrail opens fully, I am intrigued to see what the forum things will happen.

Here's a few starters:
  • Ealing Broadway becomes mless of an interchange as more people continue on the train instead of changing for the Central Line
  • Conversely, Abbey Wood become more of an interchange and Southeastern trains become much less busy towards Charing X, Cannon St
  • The Central Line thoughout will obviously become less busy - I think it's generally predicted to be 20-30% but can't find the figures any more
I think that the biggest impact will be at Farringdon where three c.24tph services meet (Crossrail, Thameslink and LU). Because that will be the core interchange, it will directly affect whatever St Pancras to Stratford traffic there is, Met/Circle line traffic from Liverpool St, Moorgate and Farringdon to Paddington and probably slightly increase LO NLL patronage between West Hampstead and OOC when it opens.
 

hwl

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I think that the biggest impact will be at Farringdon where three c.24tph services meet (Crossrail, Thameslink and LU). Because that will be the core interchange, it will directly affect whatever St Pancras to Stratford traffic there is, Met/Circle line traffic from Liverpool St, Moorgate and Farringdon to Paddington and probably slightly increase LO NLL patronage between West Hampstead and OOC when it opens.
There used to be quite big flows changing from Thameslink at West Hampstead changing to the Jubilee line for Canary Wharf and I can see that swapping to change at Farringdon instead, which will be good for Jubilee line users heading east from Waterloo, London Bridge and Canada Water.
 

AM9

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There used to be quite big flows changing from Thameslink at West Hampstead changing to the Jubilee line for Canary Wharf and I can see that swapping to change at Farringdon instead, which will be good for Jubilee line users heading east from Waterloo, London Bridge and Canada Water.
I wonder if at some point in the future, something will be done about the narrow platforms and poor circulation space, particularly at their northern ends. The churn on and off of TL trains will need to be managed intensively.
There used to be quite big flows changing from Thameslink at West Hampstead changing to the Jubilee line for Canary Wharf and I can see that swapping to change at Farringdon instead, which will be good for Jubilee line users heading east from Waterloo, London Bridge and Canada Water.
The Jubilee at WH also picks up some of the flow to Oxford Circus at the moment.
 

quantinghome

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Remember that Crossrail is deliberately designed NOT to have easy platform to platform interchange with LU lines (to avoid overloading them). For most stations it will be a schlep up to the ticket hall and down again if you want to interchange. Obviously it will relieve the central line and a lot of other East-West traffic, taking over West End and City to Canary Wharf flows from the Jubilee line and DLR, but I wouldn't expect it to attract many interchanges from LU lines crossing north-south. The exception may be Euston/KXSP to Canary Wharf passengers who will probably all change at Farringdon rather than use the current circuitous routes.
 

Ianno87

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There'll be some interesting flow changes around the Docklands, with folks using the DLR to "Railhead" to Crossrail at Canary Wharf or Custom House.

You also might get oddities elsewhere, like more folk on the Northern Line Bank branch connecting onto a much emptier Central Line.
 

swt_passenger

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I wonder if at some point in the future, something will be done about the narrow platforms and poor circulation space, particularly at their northern ends. The churn on and off of TL trains will need to be managed intensively.
Farringdon? Can’t see it being easy. The northbound platform is against a building, and although there’s theoretically space behind the north end of the southbound platform, the level is different to the LU side, hence the various walls and steps. I’m not sure if that can easily be solved.
 

Dr Hoo

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I suppose that if Farringdon really does turn out to be unattractive as an interchange some people might choose to use Tottenham Court Road (from Euston only, via Northern Line Charing Cross branch) or Moorgate/Liverpool Street off the Circle/H&C/Metropolitan, whilst heading to Docklands.
 

jhy44

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There will likely be far less interchange on/off the D/H&C LU lines at Mile End and a shift to Whitechapel.

Green Park will become less of a Central London Railhead for Heathrow (via Piccadilly), shifting instead to Bond Street and TCR.

It'll be interesting to see what Victoria Line passengers do, given it has no connection to Crossrail. Will they continue to change at Green Park for the Piccadilly line to Heathrow? Or will they make two changes to pick up Crossrail? Perhaps it'll depend on how much luggage they have.

I wonder if conversely it might reduce the number of Northern Line passengers who switch to the VIC at Stockwell, so that they can stay on the NOR and pick up Crossrail at either TCR or Moorgate.
 

Snow1964

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I think there will be change in the South Ealing, Boston Manor, Hanwell, West Ealing area (the large residential area between Piccadilly line and GW mainline). With some of those currently using frequent (but slowish) Piccadilly line switching, especially if they work in City or Canary Wharf

I suspect there will be some from South London currently using Victoria who may switch to Thameslink services to Farringdon for onward services rather than join the scrum (and frequent queuing) to get Victoria line at Victoria.
 

Taunton

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Professional transport planners use the concept of O&D Prediction - Origin & Destination, to analyse travel flows. This must surely have been done, in great detail, for Crossrail, and yet the figures, which would include the diversion of flows from established means, whether NR, other TfL, road, etc, have never been published. I suspect that they must be so concerned about being embarrassed if things turn out differently that they would rather keep all this, on which billions of public expenditure depended, to themselves.

Possibly the only two key players who would have understood these figures are Sir Peter Hendy, onetime Commissioner, and Andy Byford, current commissioner. Of the intervening Commissioner, and the rest of the senior TfL/Mayor hierarchy, the less said the better. Obviously figures and flows have changed since Covid, but Sir Peter's onetime comment that he feared "Crossrail might be full up from Day 1" seems a notably informed comment.

Regarding flow change, I do expect it will draw passengers away from the four east-west Underground routes across central London (Jubilee, District, Central and Circle North Side) in varying proportions. Jubilee quite substantially, as it offers a whole range of shortcuts right out to Stratford. Central likewise, being the closest. However, there will be some diversion TO these lines as well. Kings Cross to Canary Wharf, presently via London Bridge, moving to change at Farringdon, for example.

The DLR I anticipate may end up losing traffic. Beckton/Excel to Central London, either direct or changing to the Jubilee at Canning Town, moving substantially to the Custom House change. Canary Wharf to The City likewise.

The Piccadilly may be among the greatest to benefit, with its Heathrow traffic from central London moving over very substantially. The present day routing via Paddington is tedious and offers no advantage to get to the airport, hence why the Piccadilly retained so much of the traffic, but Crossrail is going to make a wholesale change in flows there.

There are also some secondary effects. Routes which are currently overloaded and have passengers diverting away will come back into into convenience. Liverpool Street westbound on the Central, or Canning Town westbound on the Jubilee, both of which suffer from major inability to even get in the train in the morning peak, may come back into favour for many.
 

AM9

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It'll be interesting to see what Victoria Line passengers do, given it has no connection to Crossrail. Will they continue to change at Green Park for the Piccadilly line to Heathrow? Or will they make two changes to pick up Crossrail? Perhaps it'll depend on how much luggage they have.

There might be some transferring between Oxford Circus and Bond Street via a street level walk, (depending on luggage etc.) as the Hanover Square entrance to the new station isn't that far away from the Oxford Circus SW staircases.
 
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Falcon1200

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It will certainly make transferring between Paddington and Liverpool St easier, in fact Stratford might be better if travelling towards Southend, Colchester etc. Possibly Paddington/Thameslink destinations from St Pancras too, depending on the ease of interchange at Farringdon.
 

stuu

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Professional transport planners use the concept of O&D Prediction - Origin & Destination, to analyse travel flows. This must surely have been done, in great detail, for Crossrail, and yet the figures, which would include the diversion of flows from established means, whether NR, other TfL, road, etc, have never been published. I suspect that they must be so concerned about being embarrassed if things turn out differently that they would rather keep all this, on which billions of public expenditure depended, to themselves.
Two seconds using Google reveals a document called "Crossrail Summary of Transport Case". With lots of maps and data.

No need for a tinfoil hat
 

Taunton

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Two seconds using Google reveals a document called "Crossrail Summary of Transport Case". With lots of maps and data.

No need for a tinfoil hat
That's known for an excessively high level overview, padded out with a lot of boilerplate, and no data substantiation.

The map on page 6 which says there will be no overcrowding difference on the Piccadilly Line in from Heathrow is difficult to believe.
 

Ianno87

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That's known for an excessively high level overview, padded out with a lot of boilerplate, and no data substantiation.

The map on page 6 which says there will be no overcrowding difference on the Piccadilly Line in from Heathrow is difficult to believe.

Because it'll work two ways - abstraction of people off the Piccadilly line onto Crossrail, but then new demand of people onto the Piccadilly line using the freed up space (demand that is currently suppressed by crowding).

Plus you're also assuming that the demand on Crossrail is transferred - it may be being made by other modes (such as Taxi or Heathrow Express) at present.

Also it will depend what other schemes the appraisal assumes to have happened. For example, it may include the Piccadilly Line upgrade, which will add capacity, frequency and improve journey times.
 

hwl

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Professional transport planners use the concept of O&D Prediction - Origin & Destination, to analyse travel flows. This must surely have been done, in great detail, for Crossrail, and yet the figures, which would include the diversion of flows from established means, whether NR, other TfL, road, etc, have never been published. I suspect that they must be so concerned about being embarrassed if things turn out differently that they would rather keep all this, on which billions of public expenditure depended, to themselves.

Possibly the only two key players who would have understood these figures are Sir Peter Hendy, onetime Commissioner, and Andy Byford, current commissioner. Of the intervening Commissioner, and the rest of the senior TfL/Mayor hierarchy, the less said the better. Obviously figures and flows have changed since Covid, but Sir Peter's onetime comment that he feared "Crossrail might be full up from Day 1" seems a notably informed comment.

Regarding flow change, I do expect it will draw passengers away from the four east-west Underground routes across central London (Jubilee, District, Central and Circle North Side) in varying proportions. Jubilee quite substantially, as it offers a whole range of shortcuts right out to Stratford. Central likewise, being the closest. However, there will be some diversion TO these lines as well. Kings Cross to Canary Wharf, presently via London Bridge, moving to change at Farringdon, for example.

The DLR I anticipate may end up losing traffic. Beckton/Excel to Central London, either direct or changing to the Jubilee at Canning Town, moving substantially to the Custom House change. Canary Wharf to The City likewise.

The Piccadilly may be among the greatest to benefit, with its Heathrow traffic from central London moving over very substantially. The present day routing via Paddington is tedious and offers no advantage to get to the airport, hence why the Piccadilly retained so much of the traffic, but Crossrail is going to make a wholesale change in flows there.

There are also some secondary effects. Routes which are currently overloaded and have passengers diverting away will come back into into convenience. Liverpool Street westbound on the Central, or Canning Town westbound on the Jubilee, both of which suffer from major inability to even get in the train in the morning peak, may come back into favour for many.
Tiny snippets have come out along with the expected revenue impacts for TfL, a lot of the year 1 and 2 Crossrail use was expected to canabalise existing TfL flows so the revenue increases weren't huge, the main exception was expected to be through services from GWML. Year 3 onwards saw majority organic growth on Crossrail and back filling the relieved capacity on other routes e.g. Central
 

Ianno87

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Because it'll work two ways - abstraction of people off the Piccadilly line onto Crossrail, but then new demand of people onto the Piccadilly line using the freed up space (demand that is currently suppressed by crowding).

Plus you're also assuming that the demand on Crossrail is transferred - it may be being made by other modes (such as Taxi or Heathrow Express) at present.

Also it will depend what other schemes the appraisal assumes to have happened. For example, it may include the Piccadilly Line upgrade, which will add capacity, frequency and improve journey times.

The other thing with regards Heathrow is that the Piccadilly line's frequency will still be much higher - 12tph versus 6tph, so many passengers will choose the frequency, particularly from the Kensington/Earls Court area.
 

hwl

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Because it'll work two ways - abstraction of people off the Piccadilly line onto Crossrail, but then new demand of people onto the Piccadilly line using the freed up space (demand that is currently suppressed by crowding).

Plus you're also assuming that the demand on Crossrail is transferred - it may be being made by other modes (such as Taxi or Heathrow Express) at present.

Also it will depend what other schemes the appraisal assumes to have happened. For example, it may include the Piccadilly Line upgrade, which will add capacity, frequency and improve journey times.
Picc upgrade wasn't from memory.

Huge numbers have left the Taxi trade and Heathrow pick up and drops were meant to be just over 5% of total black cab fare revenue pre-Covid so a small slice of that to Crossrail is actually quite substantial.

It was also expected to be a slow growth in airport user level as lots off people aren't frequent users so will have used crossrail first for other journeys.
 

Taunton

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Huge numbers have left the Taxi trade and Heathrow pick up and drops were meant to be just over 5% of total black cab fare revenue pre-Covid so a small slice of that to Crossrail is actually quite substantial.
The substantial fall in Heathrow taxi traffic (already happened, hence driver number reduction) is pretty much wholly a transfer to Uber.
 

hwl

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The substantial fall in Heathrow taxi traffic (already happened, hence driver number reduction) is pretty much wholly a transfer to Uber.
Exactly, TfL were never expecting huge changes early on with Crossrail at Heathrow anyway. Even a small % of that revenue is quite large.
 

Horizon22

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Exactly, TfL were never expecting huge changes early on with Crossrail at Heathrow anyway. Even a small % of that revenue is quite large.

It will be interesting to see whether Heathrow Express ever recovers post-pandemic. Trains are certainly busier than they were 6 months ago but that’s from a dramatic low and I wouldn’t say yet that TfL services yet have many airport passengers on them. When the connection is made it may be more attractive. Or with strong branding they might still be able to attract people like GatEx
 
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Jorge Da Silva

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It will be interesting to see whether Heathrow Express ever recovers post-pandemic. Trains are certainly busier than they were 6 months ago and I wouldn’t say yet that TfL services yet have many airport passengers on them. When the connection is made it may be more attractive. Or with strong branding they might still be able to attract people like GatEx

According to TfL the numbers of airport passengers are around 20% of pre-pandemic levels compared with 50-60% for other TfL services.
 

hwl

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It will be interesting to see whether Heathrow Express ever recovers post-pandemic. Trains are certainly busier than they were 6 months ago and I wouldn’t say yet that TfL services yet have many airport passengers on them. When the connection is made it may be more attractive. Or with strong branding they might still be able to attract people like GatEx
Though services will be the game changer for Crossrail, quiet until then
 
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  • The Central Line thoughout will obviously become less busy - I think it's generally predicted to be 20-30% but can't find the figures any more
The Central Line throughout includes Stratford to Epping and to Hainault including the link between Hainault and Woodford. This section will not become less busy. Crossrail will almost certainly increase patronage along this stretch because people will use it to access Crossrail at Stratford. There may well be a similar increase at the other end of the Central Line.

Until Covid 19, many people in places like Wanstead, Woodford and Leytonstone used to travel by minicab to Walthamstow Central where they boarded the Victoria Line. Now, particularly because the fanatically anti-motor car London Borough of Waltham Forest has recently done so much to make the roads unfit for purpose, going to Walthamstow for many will be far less sensible than taking the Central Line to Stratford and changing there.

An interesting question will be how many people who currently change at Tottenham Hale and Seven Sisters to the Victoria Line, will instead continue to Liverpool Street and use Crossrail.
 

Ianno87

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It will be interesting to see whether Heathrow Express ever recovers post-pandemic. Trains are certainly busier than they were 6 months ago but that’s from a dramatic low and I wouldn’t say yet that TfL services yet have many airport passengers on them. When the connection is made it may be more attractive. Or with strong branding they might still be able to attract people like GatEx

I suspect they'll push the HEX brand still, but probably be a bit more tactical with fares. Even if the "walk up" price is high, perhaps more Buy-in-Advance discounts.

I don't think HEX will be dispppearing any time soon.
 

Horizon22

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The Central Line throughout includes Stratford to Epping and to Hainault including the link between Hainault and Woodford. This section will not become less busy. Crossrail will almost certainly increase patronage along this stretch because people will use it to access Crossrail at Stratford. There may well be a similar increase at the other end of the Central Line.

Until Covid 19, many people in places like Wanstead, Woodford and Leytonstone used to travel by minicab to Walthamstow Central where they boarded the Victoria Line. Now, particularly because the fanatically anti-motor car London Borough of Waltham Forest has recently done so much to make the roads unfit for purpose, going to Walthamstow for many will be far less sensible than taking the Central Line to Stratford and changing there.

An interesting question will be how many people who currently change at Tottenham Hale and Seven Sisters to the Victoria Line, will instead continue to Liverpool Street and use Crossrail.

The “other end” by which I presume you mean the Western side doesn’t have a direct connection into a Crossrail route, except for the tiny Ealing Broadway spur. At present a lot of people transfer off the TfL Rail services onto the underground although whether they’re all going anywhere further than Lancaster Gate is unknown but I’d hazard most of them are. Also Acton Main Line might become a more attractive option to locals.

Certainly this section will have fewer passengers.
 

Oveloel

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There will likely be far less interchange on/off the D/H&C LU lines at Mile End and a shift to Whitechapel.

Green Park will become less of a Central London Railhead for Heathrow (via Piccadilly), shifting instead to Bond Street and TCR.

It'll be interesting to see what Victoria Line passengers do, given it has no connection to Crossrail. Will they continue to change at Green Park for the Piccadilly line to Heathrow? Or will they make two changes to pick up Crossrail? Perhaps it'll depend on how much luggage they have.

I wonder if conversely it might reduce the number of Northern Line passengers who switch to the VIC at Stockwell, so that they can stay on the NOR and pick up Crossrail at either TCR or Moorgate.
From North London at least, most Victoria Line passengers have an alternative route to use which connects directly with Crossrail:

Walthamstow Central - Overground to Liverpool Street
Blackhorse Road - a little trickier, but maybe 158/230 to St James Street, then Overground to Liverpool Street?
Tottenham Hale - Greater Anglia to Liverpool Street or Stratford
Seven Sisters - Overground to Liverpool Street
Finsbury Park - Great Northern to Moorgate or Thameslink to Farringdon
Highbury & Islington - Great Northern to Moorgate (or Overground to Stratford or Whitechapel if you'd be heading east on Crossrail)

Also, for anyone who usually changes off another train from further out onto the Victoria Line heading southbound it will be easier to access Crossrail by simply staying on their train a little longer:

Chingford branch: stay on to Liverpool Street
Hertford East stoppers: stay on to Liverpool Street
West Anglia Main Line: stay on to Liverpool Street
Overground Enfield/Cheshunt line: stay on to Liverpool Street
Great Northern stoppers: stay on to Moorgate
Thameslink Cambridge/Peterborough branches: stay on to Farringdon
Northern Line: take a Charing Cross branch train to Tottenham Court Road (or Bank branch to Moorgate if taking Crossrail eastbound)
North London Line: use North London Line to Stratford, or East London Line to Whitechapel or Great Northern to Moorgate from Highbury & Islington

In fact, I wonder if people who currently use the Piccadilly Line to get to Heathrow will begin to either start their journey at Great Northern stations instead, or change onto Great Northern services at Finsbury Park, to access Crossrail at Moorgate.
 

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