How will passenger flows change with Crossrail?

[LeeLivery]

The ELL will be interesting. Canada Water may become less busy for interchanges as people avoid the Jubilee for Stratford/Bond Street, changing at Whitechapel instead. I know I'm certainly considering this.

People from SE & E London using public transport to Heathrow will definitely rocket - it's a shame Staines - T5 wasn't included in the project. It'd certainly encourage a reduction of cars from SW London to Heathrow.

 

[plugwash]

It'll be interesting to see what Victoria Line passengers do, given it has no connection to Crossrail. Will they continue to change at Green Park for the Piccadilly line to Heathrow? Or will they make two changes to pick up Crossrail? Perhaps it'll depend on how much luggage they have.

Or will some of them simply not use the Victoria line at all? Most of the stations on the Victoria line are also on other lines that do interchange with crossrail. When I look at the map I only see Vauxhall, Pimlico and Brixton on the Victoria line that don't have direct services to a crossrail interchange.

Stockwell has the northern line to Moorgate which will apparently be an interchange with Crossrail's liverpool street. Victoria has the circle line to Paddington. Green park has the Jubilee line to bond street. Oxford circus has the central line to bond Street or tottenham court road. Warren street and Euston have the northern line to tottenham court road. Kings cross/St pancras has all sorts of options for getting to crossrail. Highbury and islington has the northern city line to Moorgate. Finsbury park has thameslink to Farringdon or Northern city line to moorgate. Seven sisters has london overground to Liverpool street. Tottenham hale has greater anglia services to liverpool street. Blackhorse road has overground services to Wanstead park for interchange to Forest gate and Walthamstow Central has overground servies to Liverpool street.

 

[Horizon22]

The ELL will be interesting. Canada Water may become less busy for interchanges as people avoid the Jubilee for Stratford/Bond Street, changing at Whitechapel instead. I know I'm certainly considering this.

People from SE & E London using public transport to Heathrow will definitely rocket - it's a shame Staines - T5 wasn't included in the project. It'd certainly encourage a reduction of cars from SW London to Heathrow.

I certainly hope that happens at Canada Water. It's a nightmare already (or was pre-Covid) with how many change onto the Jubilee (in both directions) in off-peak with its very constrained escalator layout. Should allow it to be a bit more evened out with the viable connection at Whitechapel.

As for Staines / T5 that's part of I suppose a slightly different suggestion with the Southern Heathrow Link thoughts being discussed here.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

The “other end” by which I presume you mean the Western side doesn’t have a direct connection into a Crossrail route, except for the tiny Ealing Broadway spur. At present a lot of people transfer off the TfL Rail services onto the underground although whether they’re all going anywhere further than Lancaster Gate is unknown but I’d hazard most of them are. Also Acton Main Line might become a more attractive option to locals.

Certainly this section will have fewer passengers.

I think several people in the Ruislip area will consider two changes - at both Greenford and West Ealing - a worthwhile trade off for getting a seat on a Crossrail train before it fills up. Going into London both changes will be cross platform; coming back only West Ealing will need stairs or the lift.

 

[sammorris]

From the perspective of a commuter from the Cambridge/Peterborough branch of Thameslink, I can see there being a developing traffic from here to Canary Wharf, adding to the current City/Westminster/West End commuting from around here. It's currently not an easy commute from here to most of East London, but the availability of a simple change at Farringdon will change all that, and may make the area much more attractive to live in to commuters aiming for East London.

Certainly the existing traffic will switch to that route - I think at the moment it'd usually be a (very difficult due to overcrowding) change at London Bridge to the Jubilee, or for Stratford a two-change route via Finsbury Park and Highbury & Islington. Not sure how many people currently brave that!

Illustrates the difficulty for transport planners - if a commute is good enough, fair numbers of people will move house to go where the trains are, and pretty quickly too if it's London...

 

[stuu]

I think several people in the Ruislip area will consider two changes - at both Greenford and West Ealing - a worthwhile trade off for getting a seat on a Crossrail train before it fills up. Going into London both changes will be cross platform; coming back only West Ealing will need stairs or the lift.

I doubt it; Greenford-West Ealing is only half-hourly, and connects to 8tph (?) Crossrail service. So you are adding 15-20 minutes to your journey. Stay on the train and you will be at Bond Street before the Crossrail train gets to Paddington. You would have to really value a seat to make that journey IMO

 

[Ianno87]

I doubt it; Greenford-West Ealing is only half-hourly, and connects to 8tph (?) Crossrail service. So you are adding 15-20 minutes to your journey. Stay on the train and you will be at Bond Street before the Crossrail train gets to Paddington. You would have to really value a seat to make that journey IMO

The only exception would be if you get to Greenford with the West Ealing train waiting in the platform - and then hop across because you know it'll be departing within a minute or two (and then another cross-platform at West Ealing). Works less well in the other direction.

 

[Vespa]

Can you use your Oyster 1-4 or 1-6 on Crossrail or a separate ticket is needed ?

 

[Ianno87]

Can you use your Oyster 1-4 or 1-6 on Crossrail or a separate ticket is needed ?

Crossrail will accept Oyster and Travelcards exactly as if you were on a tube line.

 

[matt_world2004]

I've seen some outdated predictions for crossrail usage. And they were predicting something ridiculous like 5 passengers per square metre between West Drayton and Paddington in the peaks (with the higher frequency services in the core causing the passenger density to drop

It showed drops in passenger usage for the jubilee Central Hammrrsmith and city line but increases in the Victoria and some other lines. I will see if I can dig out the power point

The passenger drops on the jubilee and central were only predicted to last for two years before returning to normal demand levels.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

To quote a real life type of example - a Welwyn Garden City friend has driven to Canary Wharf for many years - (subsidised parking) , and not a really great journey , especially in Winter. He hates it.

If Thameslink plays ball , his journey would be a Farringdon change and Crossrail - transformational , if the TLK plans work out......there are many others.

(the nightmare of Farringdon to Paddington will soon end when XR comes in)

 

[stuu]

The only exception would be if you get to Greenford with the West Ealing train waiting in the platform - and then hop across because you know it'll be departing within a minute or two (and then another cross-platform at West Ealing). Works less well in the other direction.

But even then you have the added interchange where things can go wrong, the assumption the train will leave on time etc. It will work for some journeys but I can't see it being a big change to flows

 

[Jimini]

The Central Line throughout includes Stratford to Epping and to Hainault including the link between Hainault and Woodford. This section will not become less busy. Crossrail will almost certainly increase patronage along this stretch because people will use it to access Crossrail at Stratford. There may well be a similar increase at the other end of the Central Line.

Until Covid 19, many people in places like Wanstead, Woodford and Leytonstone used to travel by minicab to Walthamstow Central where they boarded the Victoria Line. Now, particularly because the fanatically anti-motor car London Borough of Waltham Forest has recently done so much to make the roads unfit for purpose, going to Walthamstow for many will be far less sensible than taking the Central Line to Stratford and changing there.

An interesting question will be how many people who currently change at Tottenham Hale and Seven Sisters to the Victoria Line, will instead continue to Liverpool Street and use Crossrail.

Do what? I’ve lived in South Woodford for the best part of ten years, and the only time I’ve ever known a flow of people / cabs over to the likes of Blackhorse Road, Ilford etc. is when the central line’s up the spout.

 

[Horizon22]

I think several people in the Ruislip area will consider two changes - at both Greenford and West Ealing - a worthwhile trade off for getting a seat on a Crossrail train before it fills up. Going into London both changes will be cross platform; coming back only West Ealing will need stairs or the lift.

Not so sure, its not a high frequency service to W. Ealing.

To quote a real life type of example - a Welwyn Garden City friend has driven to Canary Wharf for many years - (subsidised parking) , and not a really great journey , especially in Winter. He hates it.

If Thameslink plays ball , his journey would be a Farringdon change and Crossrail - transformational , if the TLK plans work out......there are many others.

(the nightmare of Farringdon to Paddington will soon end when XR comes in)

Nightmare? It's a direct trip around the H&C or Circle.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Not so sure, its not a high frequency service to W. Ealing.



Nightmare? It's a direct trip around the H&C or Circle.

Only used it since 1990 or so - you have a choice of the H&C at about 12 min intervals and quite a long walk at the Padd end , or a Met to Baker St and the Bakerloo , - or recent times crowded and and often one escalator out at Padd with reduced access (due to Crossrail works !) - just a pain. Even with COVID reductions in pax.

Still , at least the miserable "C" stock has gone.

 

[Class 170101]

There used to be quite big flows changing from Thameslink at West Hampstead changing to the Jubilee line for Canary Wharf and I can see that swapping to change at Farringdon instead, which will be good for Jubilee line users heading east from Waterloo, London Bridge and Canada Water.

West Hampstead Thameslink for Jubilee Line to Canary Wharf surely it would be miles quicker to change at London Bridge for the Jubilee Line rather than change stations at West Hampstead - don't forget they are two stations and not an integrated interchange.

I think there will be change in the South Ealing, Boston Manor, Hanwell, West Ealing area (the large residential area between Piccadilly line and GW mainline). With some of those currently using frequent (but slowish) Piccadilly line switching, especially if they work in City or Canary Wharf

I believe Crossrail suggested sometime ago that Releasing pressure with the extra capacity at Ealing Broadway would release some capacity in Earls Court area

It will certainly make transferring between Paddington and Liverpool St easier, in fact Stratford might be better if travelling towards Southend, Colchester etc. Possibly Paddington/Thameslink destinations from St Pancras too, depending on the ease of interchange at Farringdon.

Stratford to St Pancras will have three options once Crossrail opens, via Stratford International, Liverpool Street and Circle Line or via Crossrail and Thameslink at Farringdon.

In terms of changing between Crossrail and GEML, Stratford westbound may be busy but eastbound I'm not so sure. I think most passengers for Colchester and Southend will still change at Liverpool Street and get a seat upon leaving Liverpool Street rather than chancing it at Stratford even though the interchange time would shorter.

 

[stuu]

West Hampstead Thameslink for Jubilee Line to Canary Wharf surely it would be miles quicker to change at London Bridge for the Jubilee Line rather than change stations at West Hampstead - don't forget they are two stations and not an integrated interchange.

Hundreds of people do that every day. It's almost certainly a quicker change at West Hampstead and there is more chance of getting on a train. And importantly WH to London Bridge takes nearly 10 minutes longer by Thameslink than Jubilee

 

[Horizon22]

Only used it since 1990 or so - you have a choice of the H&C at about 12 min intervals and quite a long walk at the Padd end , or a Met to Baker St and the Bakerloo , - or recent times crowded and and often one escalator out at Padd with reduced access (due to Crossrail works !) - just a pain. Even with COVID reductions in pax.

Still , at least the miserable "C" stock has gone.

Well the frequency is a lot higher now! I’ve personally never waited more than 5 minutes (some of which was right in the middle of lockdown). You could always change at Edgware Rd too. And theres a exit by the H&C / Circle line too, although if you want the front of Paddington / the ‘other’ tube station then yes it is still a bit of a trek.

 

[hwl]

West Hampstead Thameslink for Jubilee Line to Canary Wharf surely it would be miles quicker to change at London Bridge for the Jubilee Line rather than change stations at West Hampstead - don't forget they are two stations and not an integrated interchange.
.

You could get on Jubilee at Hampstead but not London Bridge...

TfL lose the Z2-->1 fare step with Crossrail

 

[Snow1964]

From memory, I remember a London newspaper article (few years ago now) where it was illustrating many thousands of commuters change or take a different routing in reverse direction.

It was where multiple route options were available, and had to change at least once

Basically came down to :
keeping a seat for longer
avoiding congested interchanges where might not get on first train
walking to different tube station in one direction
interchanges where one way walking system is longer

So actually quite complicated as people will often go a slower or slightly less direct route if interchange is easier, or it gets them a seat easier.

There we’re all sorts of oddities that might not be obvious at first glance such at commuters into Liverpool Street taking Met/Circle to Farringdon then walking to near Chancery Lane as Central can be difficult to board, but returning via Central. Another one was a South Londoner taking Thameslink to Farringdon as they work near Moorgate, but returning on Northern line then getting a train starting at London Bridge to get a seat.

Must be quite difficult to adjust an Origin and Destination model for this sort of behaviour tweaking.

As for people moving home, I think that tends to be more long term, and of course assumes job location doesn’t change. I think Canary Wharf did a survey of starting station (was about 15 years ago, just after loads of companies had moved there) and Surbiton turned out to be most common start station.

 

[Ianno87]

From memory, I remember a London newspaper article (few years ago now) where it was illustrating many thousands of commuters change or take a different routing in reverse direction.

It was where multiple route options were available, and had to change at least once

Basically came down to :
keeping a seat for longer
avoiding congested interchanges where might not get on first train
walking to different tube station in one direction
interchanges where one way walking system is longer

So actually quite complicated as people will often go a slower or slightly less direct route if interchange is easier, or it gets them a seat easier.

There we’re all sorts of oddities that might not be obvious at first glance such at commuters into Liverpool Street taking Met/Circle to Farringdon then walking to near Chancery Lane as Central can be difficult to board, but returning via Central. Another one was a South Londoner taking Thameslink to Farringdon as they work near Moorgate, but returning on Northern line then getting a train starting at London Bridge to get a seat.

Must be quite difficult to adjust an Origin and Destination model for this sort of behaviour tweaking.

It gets adjusted in models by applying a crowding factor to the journey time - in effect the perceived journey time gets longer as crowded conditions are encountered. So "illogical" routes get chosen to avoid crowded conditions.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

The only exception would be if you get to Greenford with the West Ealing train waiting in the platform - and then hop across because you know it'll be departing within a minute or two (and then another cross-platform at West Ealing). Works less well in the other direction.

That's what I was thinking of. Local people will learn the departure times of the Greenford/West Ealing shuttle and structure their journey around that.

Do what? I’ve lived in South Woodford for the best part of ten years, and the only time I’ve ever known a flow of people / cabs over to the likes of Blackhorse Road, Ilford etc. is when the central line’s up the spout.

Clearly you don't know the same people I do!

 

[Horizon22]

From memory, I remember a London newspaper article (few years ago now) where it was illustrating many thousands of commuters change or take a different routing in reverse direction.

It was where multiple route options were available, and had to change at least once

Basically came down to :
keeping a seat for longer
avoiding congested interchanges where might not get on first train
walking to different tube station in one direction
interchanges where one way walking system is longer

So actually quite complicated as people will often go a slower or slightly less direct route if interchange is easier, or it gets them a seat easier.

There we’re all sorts of oddities that might not be obvious at first glance such at commuters into Liverpool Street taking Met/Circle to Farringdon then walking to near Chancery Lane as Central can be difficult to board, but returning via Central. Another one was a South Londoner taking Thameslink to Farringdon as they work near Moorgate, but returning on Northern line then getting a train starting at London Bridge to get a seat.

Must be quite difficult to adjust an Origin and Destination model for this sort of behaviour tweaking.

As for people moving home, I think that tends to be more long term, and of course assumes job location doesn’t change. I think Canary Wharf did a survey of starting station (was about 15 years ago, just after loads of companies had moved there) and Surbiton turned out to be most common start station.

There will have definitely been a high level strategic transport model to predict flows based on interchange time / population growth / catchment area etc. but it’s a) probably quite old now and b) stuffed full of caveats. There are companies who do this for a living.

Quite a few people did already move to new developments in Abbey Wood, Southall etc. a few years back and have been stuck trundling along Southeastern / TfL & Central line for the past 3 years…

 

[PeterC]

Hundreds of people do that every day. It's almost certainly a quicker change at West Hampstead and there is more chance of getting on a train. And importantly WH to London Bridge takes nearly 10 minutes longer by Thameslink than Jubilee

Pre covid far more chance. I worked in Bankside for a while and from the map my best option was Met to Finchley Road and then Jubilee to Southwark. It was so difficult getting off the train at Southwark before the doors closed that I ended up walking from Waterloo instead. The least stressful option turned out to be Chiltern to Marylebone and a shorter walk to the Bakerloo and a long walk at Waterloo. The only downside was picking up too many pastries from Konditor and Cook in Cornwall Road and undoing the health benefit of the longer walk.

I gave up on the Jubilee in the homeward direction even sooner.

 

[jfollows]

Well the frequency is a lot higher now! I’ve personally never waited more than 5 minutes (some of which was right in the middle of lockdown). You could always change at Edgware Rd too. And theres a exit by the H&C / Circle line too, although if you want the front of Paddington / the ‘other’ tube station then yes it is still a bit of a trek.

Every 5 minutes today [Paddington H&C platforms to King's Cross and, therefore, Farringdon], we concluded in a recent discussion at https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/paddington-to-kings-cross-quickest-way.221562/

 

[Class 170101]

Hundreds of people do that every day. It's almost certainly a quicker change at West Hampstead and there is more chance of getting on a train. And importantly WH to London Bridge takes nearly 10 minutes longer by Thameslink than Jubilee

Really I'd have never considered changing at West Hampstead worth considering. And Thameslink takes longer compared to the Jubilee line between West Hampstead and London Bridge

 

[jfollows]

However, it's an interesting topic.

If I think about where I've lived, then in London it's been South Kensington, Ravenscourt Park, Shepherd's Bush & Earlsfield. Arriving in London it's been Euston, Paddington and Waterloo. In almost none of those cases can I see that I'd transfer from the route I used then to Crossrail if it had existed then.

Perhaps the only exception for me would be Euston-Heathrow, which I'd consider transferring to Crossrail via Northern Line/Tottenham Court Road, but (as stated at the start of this thread) this might be a long walk, in which case I'd stick to my current preference of Northern-Piccadilly change at Leicester Square.

My conclusion is that it doesn't offer me very much and wouldn't have done so in the past either - arriving at Paddington for a Crossrail-served destination might be an exception. However Euston-Paddington I'll continue to use H&C platform at Paddington and Euston Square unless it's really raining hard and i don't have an umbrella with me.

My sister now lives in Greece but owns a house in Tilehurst, so it's probably good for her and the value of her house. When she lived in Twyford, though, I tended to go to Reading and in which case I'd continue to use Paddington main line.

I'm sure it'll get plenty of use, but I don't think by me, I'll probably use it out of curiosity once and that'll be that.

EDIT From what I can see, it looks like a reasonably short walk from the south end of the Northern Line platforms to/from Crossrail at Tottenham Court Road. So, good, I'll give it a try next time I want to get to Heathrow, say.

 

[stuu]

Really I'd have never considered changing at West Hampstead worth considering. And Thameslink takes longer compared to the Jubilee line between West Hampstead and London Bridge

Think about how far the change is at London Bridge, and it's even further since rebuilding. Down the escalators, through the tunnel and then down two more escalators to the platform. The walk at West Hampstead is about 200m entrance to entrance

 

[DJS76]

An interesting question will be how many people who currently change at Tottenham Hale and Seven Sisters to the Victoria Line, will instead continue to Liverpool Street and use CrCrossrail.

I used to do that journey for years, travelling from North London to Oxford Circus. Changing at Tottenham Hale to the Victoria Line was certainly quicker than staying on the train to Liverpool Street which can be a slow 15 minute crawl, by which time the Vic Line had already reached Euston. Although, now with the chance of staying on an air conditioned 720 and then changing to an air conditioned 345 at Liverpool Street, that option would be more appealing.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

I used to do that journey for years, travelling from North London to Oxford Circus. Changing at Tottenham Hale to the Victoria Line was certainly quicker than staying on the train to Liverpool Street which can be a slow 15 minute crawl, by which time the Vic Line had already reached Euston. Although, now with the chance of staying on an air conditioned 720 and then changing to an air conditioned 345 at Liverpool Street, that option would be more appealing.

There's also the possibility that people whose local station is on the West Anglia Main Line will go to Stratford instead of Liverpool Street.