HS2 Manchester leg scrapped: what should happen now?

[matacaster]

As I see it the problem is that all that is actually *needed* is two extra tracks from Euston to Rugby on the account of the existing lines being full due to the amount of freight using it and the decision to build vast new towns at Hemel, MK and Northampton.
While it made sense to build those two new tracks offline to a high standard, the rest of it was a case of grandstanding uneconomic nice to have proposals for political pork barrel reasons.
It will only be a few minutes less via the existing line north of either Lichfield or Crewe (depending where they end it) and there is stacks of capacity north of Lichfield due to the Trent Valley being quadrupled a while back.
I always thought that concentrating all the crack expresses on WCML, MML and ECML onto one set of tracks from Birmingham to Euston was a batty idea operationally speaking. Talk about putting all your eggs in one basket.
A line to either Lichfield or Crewe, and Trent will be very useful and free up a lot of goods paths.
The main real world benefit however is to the commuters of Milton Keynes and Northampton who suffer epic overcrowding due to lack of paths, £100 billion is rather an expensive way of achieving this



If they do that the whole thing will be a bit of a white elephant, just like Bricklayers arms was and for similar reasons.

I suspect the MK and Northampton commuters chose to live there as it's cheaper than London and doable if here is rail capacity. Its popularity with that relatively modest number of people really doesn't in any way justify HS2 costs. Up north it took the best part of twenty years to get 185's in sufficient quantity to alleviate congestion and all that was needed was to order more train sets.its difficult to see why the rest of the country should fork out Megabucks for a few thousand commuters many of whom can now work from home much of the time.

 

[Merseysider]

Agree. "Aston to Acton" is a pointless white elephant. You need Euston to be able to move enough* trains off the south WCML to get any real benefit from Phase 1.

Agree. Might as well build Walthamstow to Wakefield while we're at it.

Yet more U-turning from a spineless government.

 

[Parjon]

As a Mancunian I think it is time to ditch England and create a new country with Liverpool, and maybe Leeds and Sheffield if they wanted to join Sorry Newcastle you're just a bit too far. I am of course only half joking.

Given how inextricably Manchester and UK government have been collaborating on HS2, and more besides, to our detriment. How much of today's undeliverable HS2 is down to those very contortions. Given the at best indifference to economic harm being caused here, and at times even seeming pleasure. Given that your people have been enthusiastically working with George Osborne.

All I can see your idea doing is lumbering us with abusive partner, while the rest of the UK breathes a sigh of relief.

So, no.

It's a bit late in the day for Manchester's leadership to plead for support from all those who have been stiffed by them. But par for the course they'd try.

 

[d70g]

Don’t forget, we could be being played, here.

It’s straight out of the dark arts playbook for a government to allow speculation on a controversial decision to fester, selectively briefing off the record to political hacks of (for example) a wholesale descoping of a major rail project… only for the announced decision to be less dramatic than the worst-case scenario previously circulated. It plants relief in the electorate’s mind rather than ire at a smaller descoping being announced without warning.

 

[Parjon]

Don’t forget, we could be being played, here.

It’s straight out of the dark arts playbook for a government to allow speculation on a controversial decision to fester, selectively briefing off the record to political hacks of (for example) a wholesale descoping of a major rail project… only for the announced decision to be less dramatic than the worst-case scenario previously circulated. It plants relief in the electorate’s mind rather than ire at a smaller descoping being announced without warning.

You mean like when, before the first route announcement was made, HS2 put about a story claiming that HS2 trains to Liverpool would leave the line at Lichfield. In the simpleton belief we would be delighted when revealed that we would only be dumped at Crewe.

 

[Krokodil]

Let's wait and see what these other transport projects are before judging too harshly. Thinking about it they will probably be out of office before any of them start so Manchester leg might be reinstated by the new incoming government.

A heliport on the disused Mayfield station. You heard it here first!

If they are wiped out north of Brum i very much doubt you can totally lay the blame on HS2 as public opinion was against the project in the first place.

Did you see the headlines of "betrayal" when the Leeds leg was cancelled? It's the feeling it generates, that the government doesn't care about the North.

I suspect that view overestimates the importance of railways in the general scheme of things in the UK.

Remarkably trivial things have collapsed governments in the past.

What's odd is that HS1, a similar if shorter line, managed to get built without any of the uproar of HS2.
It also had a poor business case, is seriously under-utilised, and doesn't do much "levelling-up".

Well I'm certainly grateful for it, it makes it far quicker to get to Europe. It's done a lot to poach traffic from the airlines too.

Why do we have this obsession with High Speed Rail just because they have it on continental Europe?

Maybe because it has been proven to work?

This is a small island

LGV Atlantique is 144 miles. London to Manchester is 200 miles. Many would argue for extension to the Scottish Central Belt, which is 400 miles from London.

The masse populace of Manchester, Liverpool, Sheffield, Leeds etc have been crying out for decent rail connections

Like more capacity between Stockport and Manchester? You need HS2 for that. What about better services between Liverpool and Manchester? NPR relies upon HS2 infrastructure.

if the cancellation of HS2 is what it takes then I'm more than glad.

You don't seriously believe that the current government will invest in any serious work in the North, do you?

Most of the people opposed to HS2 haven't got the faintest idea why it's being built yet still feel entitled to comment

One of the biggest issues with free speech is that people think that they must have something worth saying.

unless wants to make fool of himself.

That ship has sailed

 

[Magdalia]

This is what the Chancellor of the Exchequer said in the 2022 Autumn Statement:

Investing in high quality infrastructure is crucial for boosting economic growth and productivity. Infrastructure spreads opportunity and prosperity across communities by connecting people to new jobs through faster and more reliable routes. Infrastructure is also the foundation for securing our energy independence and transitioning to net zero.

and

The Autumn Statement recommits to the government’s transformative growth plans for our railways. These include East West Rail, core Northern Powerhouse Rail, and High Speed 2 to Manchester. These will provide fast, more reliable services and connect people to new job opportunities.

The 2023 Autumn Statement is coming soon.....

 

[21C101]

I don't disagree.

Re your 'two additional lines to Rugby' - we used to have a railway that could have done that without massive expense. It wouldn't necessarily be high speed, but would it need to be? Shift the freight onto that route and free up paths on the WCML. Oh, and extend all the Pendolinos to 11 car (bit late for that now though).

We look like being left with a hugely expensive white elephant, with limited connectivity, relatively short journeys which won't provide significant time savings, and won't deliver additional capacity where it is probably most needed, all at an eye-watering price.

Take it you are talking about the Great Central.
A key problem is that it ended at Quainton, 50 miles north of London and had to share with short distance trains the rest of the way. Ironically HS2 is solving that, by building a new route from Quainton to London.

The revised HS2 ending at Lichfield/Trent isn't a million miles from the distance from London that GC petered out at Annesley.

 

[GardenRail]

Leeds will get Trams, now that HS2 is getting cancelled.

 

[Trainguy34]

As a Mancunian I think it is time to ditch England and create a new country with Liverpool, and maybe Leeds and Sheffield if they wanted to join Sorry Newcastle you're just a bit too far. I am of course only half joking.

Can East Kent join, leave London and the southwest. It could be an "overland territory"!

 

[hux385]

I always thought that concentrating all the crack expresses on WCML, MML and ECML onto one set of tracks from Birmingham to Euston was a batty idea operationally speaking. Talk about putting all your eggs in one basket.

This is a point that I have never considered before. How feasible was the original, full HS2 proposed timetable operationally? Any issues on the London-Brum section could cause chaos on all 3 of the WCML, ECML and MML. At least right now, all 3 mainlines have a degree of independence from each other, meaning fewer delays, as well as feasible diversionary routes. Perhaps cancelling any further expansion of HS2 is a blessing in disguise??

 

[Westerndiesels]

If OOC is the new terminal will there have to be a massive redesign? After all when it was designed a through station it would be expected that trains would move to Euston to leave platform space for the next train.

I can see the need to add platforms but it's being built already so how will that work?

Have politicians got rail engineering experts to consult or is it all decisions off the cuff?

 

[JonathanH]

If OOC is the new terminal will there have to be a massive redesign? After all when it was designed a through station it would be expected that trains would move to Euston to leave platform space for the next train.

No, just a through station used as a terminus. There was always a plan to use it as a terminus until Euston was ready.

Have politicians got rail engineering experts to consult or is it all decisions off the cuff?

They don't really need them. Essentially, they are just cutting short the project at the completion of Phase 1. It is an economic decision, not an engineering one.

 

[Citybreak1]

I’m trying to think who will use these trains they don’t stop in central London and don’t go further than Birmingham. Yes you can run new trains from Scotland but they would stop outside London?

 

[JonathanH]

I’m trying to think who will use these trains they don’t stop in central London and don’t go further than Birmingham. Yes you can run new trains from Scotland but they would stop outside London?

The same sort of people who would currently travel from Euston. Euston isn't the be all and end all of passenger transport routes from across London.

If the services that currently run from Euston no longer do so passengers will have to travel from Old Oak Common, using whatever transport links are available to get there.

Heathrow and Gatwick Airport aren't in the centre of London yet people travel there to use planes.

 

[AdamWW]

Any issues on the London-Brum section could cause chaos on all 3 of the WCML, ECML and MML. At least right now, all 3 mainlines have a degree of independence from each other, meaning fewer delays, as well as feasible diversionary routes. Perhaps cancelling any further expansion of HS2 is a blessing in disguise??

On the other hand an entirely grade separated new railway with a limited number of junctions might be more reliable in the first place. Perhaps?

 

[21C101]

I’m trying to think who will use these trains they don’t stop in central London and don’t go further than Birmingham. Yes you can run new trains from Scotland but they would stop outside London?

They will still go to Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow, however they will rejoin the West Coast Main Line at Lichfield or Crewe (whichever one it is caped at), so they will just get there 10-15 minutes more slowly.

They will also go to Sheffield and Nottingham via Trent.

If Old Oak to Euston isn't built though it will negate just about all the speed savings, although will still relieve the WCML line south of Rugby (and MML south of Trent) so provide the capacity benefits.

On the other hand an entirely grade separated new railway with a limited number of junctions might be more reliable in the first place. Perhaps?

Will still be vulnerable to people throwing bicycles on the track, peoole throwing themselves on the track and the OHLE knitting will still collapse occasionally

 

[Bletchleyite]

If Euston and the Handsacre link are built, it will be a useful 6 tracking of the southern WCML, albeit no where near as useful as it should have been. The current 9tph service can be diverted to join the new line at Handsacre and free up a lot of space for southern WCML commuter line - whilst shaving 30 minutes off the Manchester and Scotland services. Without the Handsacre link and Euston, it becomes a gleaming white elephant.

Agree.

If they are going to can 2A and 2B, they at least need to find the money for Euston. That way it would at least be useful.

 

[JonathanH]

They will also go to Sheffield and Nottingham via Trent.

Where is that confirmed?

 

[A0wen]

I don't disagree.

Re your 'two additional lines to Rugby' - we used to have a railway that could have done that without massive expense. It wouldn't necessarily be high speed, but would it need to be? Shift the freight onto that route and free up paths on the WCML. Oh, and extend all the Pendolinos to 11 car (bit late for that now though).

We look like being left with a hugely expensive white elephant, with limited connectivity, relatively short journeys which won't provide significant time savings, and won't deliver additional capacity where it is probably most needed, all at an eye-watering price.

Bit in bold, except south of Aylesbury or Princes Risborough that line is full - so where would you suggest the extra trains from Rugby go when they reach Aylesbury or Princes Risborough ?

 

[Bletchleyite]

If Old Oak to Euston isn't built though it will negate just about all the speed savings, although will still relieve the WCML line south of Rugby (and MML south of Trent) so provide the capacity benefits.

No, it won't. Without Euston (and Handsacre) you can't move the 10tph of WCML fast services over, Old Oak won't have the capacity to do this.

The "Acton-Aston" option removes just one fast train per hour from the WCML. Pointless.

 

[21C101]

This is a point that I have never considered before. How feasible was the original, full HS2 proposed timetable operationally? Any issues on the London-Brum section could cause chaos on all 3 of the WCML, ECML and MML. At least right now, all 3 mainlines have a degree of independence from each other, meaning fewer delays, as well as feasible diversionary routes. Perhaps cancelling any further expansion of HS2 is a blessing in disguise??

Certainly cancelling Leeds was a no brainer for that reason (and boy did I get stick for pointing that out here before it was cancelled).

Manchester isn't really being cancelled, just being slowed down by a few minutes (especially if it ends at Crewe rather than Lichfield).

It also gives them breathing space to rethink the Manchester Station which was to be a terminus.

A rethink with the east to west route coming first might see it huilt as a through station. Remember when Crossrail to Reading was cancelled beyond Maidenhead - then uncancelled when someone else had paid to electrify Maidenhead to Reading and rebuild Reading Station.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That's maybe the case for peak services but if we are to acheive modal shift that we need then we need to be running more regular trains off peak too. 1 train per hour London-Liverpool or Glasgow isn't good enough to make services attractive.

It really is. Loads of people use them.

However, a second Liverpool is to be delivered on the existing WCML within a year or two, just waiting on the 807s and an already in progress power supply upgrade.

HS2 without Golborne won't deliver a second Glasgow.

The Trent Valley stations have a poor service to both London and Manchester.

They have the best service they have ever had, and at an utterly bargain price too. A second TV semifast would be good though.

Northampton's service is too slow.

Northampton's service is fine for the size and prestige of the town. And at commuter times there is an hourly peak extra calling at MKC only. The Northampton "but but but MK" whine is irrelevant - all trains on the south WCML post HS2 (if it were built in full) would call, because MK is more important than Northampton, always will be and will get more so.

Milton Kenynes needs far more trains to support the planned population growth.

It really doesn't, not post COVID. 12 car on all present services and maybe run the peak extras all day will provide enough capacity for the foreseeable.

We need better public transport services.

We do, yes, but I'd say priority is for urban public transport services. Milton Keynes (as we're talking about it) has a bus service the third world would be embarrassed about, for instance.

 

[Citybreak1]

They will still go to Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow, however they will rejoin the West Coast Main Line at Lichfield or Crewe (whichever one it is caped at), so they will just get there 10-15 minutes more slowly.

They will also go to Sheffield and Nottingham via Trent.

If Old Oak to Euston isn't built though it will negate just about all the speed savings, although will still relieve the WCML line south of Rugby (and MML south of Trent) so provide the capacity benefits.


Will still be vulnerable to people throwing bicycles on the track, peoole throwing themselves on the track and the OHLE knitting will still collapse occasionally

So capacity upgrades and not speed. So travelling from Scotland Avanti would remain best choice? Perhaps if I was staying at a hotel in Birmingham traveling to London might be worth it.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Take it you are talking about the Great Central.
A key problem is that it ended at Quainton, 50 miles north of London and had to share with short distance trains the rest of the way. Ironically HS2 is solving that, by building a new route from Quainton to London.

The Great Central is otherwise known as "Chiltern Railways", and removing all the commuter services from it to turn it into a freight line would be rather unpopular, not least in a key Tory heartland. So not happening.

 

[Midnight13]

So capacity upgrades and not speed. So travelling from Scotland Avanti would remain best choice? Perhaps if I was staying at a hotel in Birmingham traveling to London might be worth it.

Fast Avanti services to Scotland would go on the high speed line

 

[21C101]

No, it won't. Without Euston (and Handsacre) you can't move the 10tph of WCML fast services over, Old Oak won't have the capacity to do this.

The "Acton-Aston" option removes just one fast train per hour from the WCML. Pointless.

I suspect that some of them will end up at Paddington if Euston IS cancelled and ALL non intercity services out of Paddington (including Heathrow Express) would be migrated to Crossrail to free up space at Paddington.

Where did you get the idea that the bit from Birmingham international to Lichfield (Handsacre) was getting canned. That is part of the core phase 1 and underway, I'm not even sure that the 2a section on to Crewe is in jeopardy.

The Great Central is otherwise known as "Chiltern Railways", and removing all the commuter services from it to turn it into a freight line would be rather unpopular, not least in a key Tory heartland. So not happening.

Chiltern Railways (other than Marylebone to Harrow within Greater London) is the Metropolitan Railway to Aylesbury and the Great Central Great Western Joint to Haddenham (and GW beyond to Birmingham).

The Great Central started at Quainton Road and ran about 60 or so miles to Annesley just north of Nottingham where it joined the existing (and slow) Manchester, Sheffield and Lincoln Railway.

The whole point of my post was to point out that the GC expired 50 miles out of London and HS2 is building the missing bit south of Quainton.

Maybe read my posts more carefully before putting the boot in?

 

[matacaster]

Leeds will get Trams, now that HS2 is getting cancelled.

HST=high speed trams?

 

[irp]

HST=high speed trams?

LOL. I was thinking about posting something similar and wondering who would be the first to mention the HSTs

 

[matacaster]

Don’t forget, we could be being played, here.

It’s straight out of the dark arts playbook for a government to allow speculation on a controversial decision to fester, selectively briefing off the record to political hacks of (for example) a wholesale descoping of a major rail project… only for the announced decision to be less dramatic than the worst-case scenario previously circulated. It plants relief in the electorate’s mind rather than ire at a smaller descoping being announced without warning.

Oh quite so, maybe intention is to force Starmer to agree to fund the lot, then cancel the pricey bits?