HS2 Manchester leg scrapped: what should happen now?

[A0wen]

Agree. "Aston to Acton" is a pointless white elephant. You need Euston to be able to move enough* trains off the south WCML to get any real benefit from Phase 1.

* 9tph if you just use what's there now - three Manchester, three Birmingham, two Liverpool and one Scotland.

Bit in bold - why ?

Euston or its vicinity isn't the final destination for many people who arrive there. Old Oak will have connection to the Elizabeth Line giving a direct link to Central London and the City (better than the Northern Line from Euston by far) as well as a direct link to Heathrow (which Euston can't offer) and if platforms were added to the North London Line and West London Line at Old Oak, you'd have direct access to swathes of North London and South London - again far better than anything Euston can offer.

 

[Snow1964]

Not surprisingly Andy Burnham (mayor of Manchester) has called in disrespect to the north

Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham slams “disrespect” towards the North as HS2 hangs in the balance - Mancunian Matters

Andy Burnham has suggested the UK “is not a country of equals” to the Conservative government and “run more for

www.mancunianmatters.co.uk

 

[BAFRA77]

What Andy Burnham says is pretty irrelevant he doesn't dictate labour policy nor does he have any money. He's just going to make vacuous speeches.

Andy Street hasn't really minced his words - and he's a Tory mayor (from the Guardian piece linked previously upthread):

Andy Street, the Tory mayor of the West Midlands, said: “If you tell the international investment community you are going to do something, you bloody well have to stick to your word.”

Speaking at a fringe event in Manchester, Street said he had not been informed of the government’s decision. But he added that having consistency for investors was “an absolutely fundamental point”, adding: “It’s what drives investment.”

 

[HSTEd]

Unfortunately we are back to relying on upgrades, none of which will deliver what they are supposed to and all of which will go hugely overbudget regardless.

A lot of blind worship of the Victorian railway in Britain, but unfortunately the railway we have now is in no way fit for purpose and it cannot be made so.

 

[BrianW]

2A is basically 6-tracking the Trent Valley in any meaningful sense.

2B is Crewe to Manchester.

2B or not to be?

What Andy Burnham says is pretty irrelevant he doesn't dictate labour policy nor does he have any money.

Sadly so

'Never believe anything, until it is officially denied' I believe Sir Humphrey said.

Also 'a bold decision, Prime Minister'

Lets face it there are more pro car voters than there are pro rail voters.

Motoring on; taking a 'helicopter view'; rolling the wicket

This isn't going to happen though. These places will get no HS2 and no anything else if the current administration have anything to say about it. You might get potholes filled a bit quicker, but that's all.

How many holes in Blackburn, Lancashire these days?

Back in the day, the then pragmatist PM said 'a week's a long time in politics'.

If we learn anything from history it's that we learn nothing from history. I saw a reference upthread to TSR2. Plenty of IT projects, defence procurement blunders, nationalisation, denationalisation, renationalisation, privatisation- what steel industry?- 'improvement plans' til the cows come home, chickens to roost, pigs fly. Bread and circuses? Let them eat cake.

an elephant so brightly white you'll need sunglasses.

Refilling of all potholes in London with gold, in the hope that it'll attract a few Dick Whittington types.

Tomorrow will be here soon enough (probably?), and an Autumn Statement (with OBR assessment?) 'in the fulness of time'.

 

[Mogster]

Except you are never going to get that. NPR is effectively dead with this announcement and with it the better connections that you’re crying out for. Rishi wants to spend money on fixing potholes. The car is the priority. If you are very lucky they will announce a bit of money for buses and projects to be spent over the next 10 or 20 years. But they’ll quietly withdraw that at the next spending review.

Exactly. To think that any of the saved money will be spent even on transport is being incredibly naive. If alternative Northern projects are announced it’ll be decades before fruition.

In my opinion HS2 has been poorly sold to the public from the start. Other than myself I’ve spoken to almost no one who supports it, many are openly hostile. Roads are all that matter.

I do feel that when HS2 opens and it’s a success there will be demands to link other UK cities in similar fashion but then the whole process will have to start again from scratch. People will continue to ask why infrastructure in the UK is so poor compared to other countries.

 

[12LDA28C]

We all knew it would get cancelled. Thing is, even Labour is silent on the issue too. Because no political party wants it.

Amazing, for a project that had cross-party support.

 

[HSTEd]

Amazing, for a project that had cross-party support.

Well given that Labour adopted the project out of nowhere at pretty much the exact time in 2009 when it became obvious it was going to lose the 2010 election, a cynic might suggest it has served its purpose.

They completely reversed their previous position to support HS2, and then chose the scheme that would cause the most political ructions possible.

 

[Arkeeos]

It’s economic vandalism of the highest order, hopefully the route stays protected so it can be rebuilt, who even knows what is happen to hs2 to Leeds now.

 

[snowball]

I would personally would build Phase 1 from Euston to Curzon Street, and then look to connect HS2 with the WCML South of Basford Hall.

How would the second half of that be different from building phase 2a?

 

[12LDA28C]

Indeed, some quite sane people, often of a slightly older generation will make comments like 'why are we spending so much on HS2 when my [outer suburban] train to London takes so long and costs a fortune'? HS2 has never appealed to them.

Most of the people opposed to HS2 haven't got the faintest idea why it's being built yet still feel entitled to comment with phrases like 'white elephant', 'vanity project' 'upgrade existing lines', 'reinstate the GC' and so on. Others who oppose it just due to cost are also seemingly unaware that the amount we are spending on HS2 over the timeframe of its construction is spaffed on the inefficient NHS every single year.

 

[AndrewE]

It’s economic vandalism of the highest order, hopefully the route stays protected so it can be rebuilt, who even knows what is happen to hs2 to Leeds now.

see https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/more-delay-for-hs2-and-how-should-we-proceed.242566/page-79 post 2365. Economic vandalism, as you say.

 

[12LDA28C]

Not surprisingly Andy Burnham (mayor of Manchester) has called in disrespect to the north

Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham slams “disrespect” towards the North as HS2 hangs in the balance - Mancunian Matters

Andy Burnham has suggested the UK “is not a country of equals” to the Conservative government and “run more for

www.mancunianmatters.co.uk

I was waiting for that. Wasn't he threatening to launch legal action if the Manchester section was axed, just a few days ago?

Am i the only one that is glad?

Why would you be glad?

 

[skyhigh]

Not only that, but also that a very large proportion even of people who support railways oppose HS2, mostly on the basis that it's likely to cause underspending on the rest of the network.

Which kind of misses the point that (as I understand it) the money for HS2 is effectively ringfenced and can't be used for anything else. Cancel HS2 and the same money isn't then available to be used elsewhere.

 

[SynthD]

Why would you be glad?

Doomsayers like to be proven right once in a while, and are proven right far less often than that.

 

[jfowkes]

Most of the people opposed to HS2 haven't got the faintest idea why it's being built yet still feel entitled to comment with phrases like 'white elephant', 'vanity project' 'upgrade existing lines', 'reinstate the GC' and so on. Others who oppose it just due to cost are also seemingly unaware that the amount we are spending on HS2 over the timeframe of its construction is spaffed on the inefficient NHS every single year.

Is it any wonder when politicians, transport correspondents, columnists, etc. say the same things? What are people supposed to think?

I don't blame anyone for not supporting HS2 on the basis of how it's reported on. You can't be an expert in everything.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I would personally would build Phase 1 from Euston to Curzon Street, and then look to connect HS2 with the WCML South of Basford Hall.

Might not be the perfect solution, but it would allow faster services from Manchester/Liverpool.

If we want to relieve the south WCML, it has to go to Euston. Just doing OOC only takes 1tph off the south WCML - an expensive white elephant.

Just Euston-Birmingham and the WCML connection at the north end would be useful. "Aston to Acton" is no use at all, if that's it then we may as well stop it now.

 

[12LDA28C]

An absolute waste of money from start to.. Well.. Why do we have this obsession with High Speed Rail just because they have it on continental Europe? This is a small island and the pain of HS2 was never worth the gain. The masse populace of Manchester, Liverpool, Sheffield, Leeds etc have been crying out for decent rail connections seemingly since time began and if the cancellation of HS2 is what it takes then I'm more than glad.

You're aware that the southern end of the WCML is the most congested mixed-traffic railway in Europe and what we need is more capacity to free up paths on north-south routes? How else would you achieve that without HS2?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Which kind of misses the point that (as I understand it) the money for HS2 is effectively ringfenced and can't be used for anything else. Cancel HS2 and the same money isn't then available to be used elsewhere.

Partly. I suspect the "borrow ahead against fares income" argument is no longer as strong with fewer business travellers up for paying high fares.

You're aware that the southern end of the WCML is the most congested mixed-traffic railway in Europe and what we need is more capacity to free up paths on north-south routes? How else would you achieve that without HS2?

Was. As things are now post COVID, just extending the 9 car Pendolinos to 11, running all LNR services as 12-car (or 10.730) and sorting out another couple of 12-car platforms at Euston (hey, we could just have 17 and 18 back, with 17 extended a bit) would provide all the passenger capacity needed for a long time. And if we could do a bit more platform lengthening and get to 300m as a standard length (11.390 is 265m), then that'd be a decent bit more.

Freight is perhaps another argument, but just building HS2 for freight capacity is a weak argument when a 50mph freight-only line would be loads cheaper.

 

[trebor79]

The Guardian writes that scrapping OOC - Euston is expected too. At which point you might as well cancel everything..

Yep

Others who oppose it just due to cost are also seemingly unaware that the amount we are spending on HS2 over the timeframe of its construction is spaffed on the inefficient NHS every single year.

That's like saying I should be able to purchase a brand new car every year, for cash, because that's approximately equal to the amount I "spaff" on mortgage, groceries, day to day spending etc every year.
Could I afford to buy a new car every year? Could I heck.
Can the country afford £100bn and rising for a project that will dump people at OOC 20 minutes sooner than they could have been delivered to Euston? Can it heck.

Freight is perhaps another argument, but just building HS2 for freight capacity is a weak argument when a 50mph freight-only line would be loads cheaper.

I've said before, a cheap, much more modestly specced freight line would have been a way more sensible project. In fact you could probably have had a network of intermodal freight lines parallel to most motorways and trunk roads and have change left over from £100bn.
The problems with HS2 started when it was conceived as a high speed passenger railway.

 

[12LDA28C]

I've said before, a cheap, much more modestly specced freight line would have been a way more sensible project. In fact you could probably have had a network of intermodal freight lines parallel to most motorways and trunk roads and have change left over from £100bn.
The problems with HS2 started when it was conceived as a high speed passenger railway.

What utter rubbish. HS2 was/is being built for high speed passenger services - taking fast IC trains off the WCML frees up many more paths than moving freight onto its own dedicated line. And building a brand new route for freight only would never get through parliament and such a scheme would have even less support from the public than HS2 does.

If the Government hadn't royally mismanaged the whole project we'd be a lot nearer to completion at a lot lower cost, but we are where we are.

 

[Deepgreen]

I have always had mixed views on HS2, but I'm not glad it's being turned into a white elephant money pit from something that is expensive but useful, no. Why would anyone be glad of that?

I could understand why some people might support full cancellation including Phase 1 though.

Even that would see an absolutely vast sunk cost being just that, not to mention all the wasted angst of property acquisition, uncertainty and so on. Once a project has got to this stage, it's better to press on in my view, as too much work has surely already been done to abort. The problem of accurate cost estimates remains, though. It is endemic that estimates are brought in low to encourage approval, but even that tactic may now be pointless as large projects like this may become harder and harder to get approved. Impossible to see a way out of it.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Even that would see an absolutely vast sunk cost being just that, not to mention all the wasted angst of property acquisition, uncertainty and so on. Once a project has got to this stage, it's better to press on in my view, as too much work has surely already been done to abort. The problem of accurate cost estimates remains, though. It is endemic that estimates are brought in low to encourage approval, but even that tactic may now be pointless as large projects like this may become harder and harder to get approved. Impossible to see a way out of it.

There's no point throwing good money after bad. If it won't be built to Euston, it's pointless and of no value whatsoever, no point even putting another £1 into it.

(Might be time Labour committed to Euston, perhaps?)

 

[Deepgreen]

Personally I don't believe what either the BBC or Sky report, they're both interested in themselves rather than in reporting facts, what does interest me though is how many people on this forum choose to believe every word reported by Sky while ignoring the BBC, HS2 isn't cancelled until it's cancelled regardless of the self interested media claims

I believe the BBC, flawed though it is, far more readily than Sky, which is tilted towrds hype and sensationalism far more than the BBC. Looks like they have jumped the gun again on this one, although that doesn't mean it won't be announced at some point soon.

 

[Noddy]

In fact you could probably have had a network of intermodal freight lines parallel to most motorways and trunk roads and have change left over from £100bn.

That’s absolute tosh. Highways England can’t even afford the money to expand motorways, and have instead spent billions on smart motorways.

 

[Deepgreen]

There's no point throwing good money after bad.

So where would that leave the various huge building sites along the route, along with the acquired land, etc? Maybe it would be possible to put things back as they were, but at what cost? What a mess.

 

[Bletchleyite]

So where would that leave the various huge building sites along the route, along with the acquired land, etc? Maybe it would be possible to put things back as they were, but at what cost? What a mess.

A mess indeed.

Farmland would just go back to nature, I guess, and the land around Euston and Curzon St would be quite valuable sold for development.

 

[Luke McDonnell]

Just asking why the prevailing consensus on here seems to be if Phase 2 is scrapped it could not be continued by a new government (probably Labour) given that we are probably a year at most out from an election and maybe as little as 8 months away - an election that on current polling the current government are likely to loose? That is providing Labour are 100% behind it given that they could not be seen to be betraying the north given the large voter base that they have I can understand it with the Tories but Labour? If this decision was taken 2 years ago I would be more worried but I thought construction of Phase 2 is not due for a few years yet in which case we may have a different government

 

[Deepgreen]

Partly. I suspect the "borrow ahead against fares income" argument is no longer as strong with fewer business travellers up for paying high fares.



Was. As things are now post COVID, just extending the 9 car Pendolinos to 11, running all LNR services as 12-car (or 10.730) and sorting out another couple of 12-car platforms at Euston (hey, we could just have 17 and 18 back, with 17 extended a bit) would provide all the passenger capacity needed for a long time. And if we could do a bit more platform lengthening and get to 300m as a standard length (11.390 is 265m), then that'd be a decent bit more.

Freight is perhaps another argument, but just building HS2 for freight capacity is a weak argument when a 50mph freight-only line would be loads cheaper.

With freight typically capable of much higher speeds, that would be pointless too.

A mess indeed.

Farmland would just go back to nature, I guess, and the land around Euston and Curzon St would be quite valuable sold for development.

That’s absolute tosh. Highways England can’t even afford the money to expand motorways, and have instead spent billions on smart motorways.

With extremely dubious safety cases too.

 

[350401]

If Euston and the Handsacre link are built, it will be a useful 6 tracking of the southern WCML, albeit no where near as useful as it should have been. The current 9tph service can be diverted to join the new line at Handsacre and free up a lot of space for southern WCML commuter line - whilst shaving 30 minutes off the Manchester and Scotland services. Without the Handsacre link and Euston, it becomes a gleaming white elephant.