HS2 Manchester leg scrapped: what should happen now?

[HSTEd]

Was a route east of Stoke (for destinations west of the Pennines) ever considered?

I assume the availability of land at Crewe has always attracted a route further west.

I'm not aware of one.
But obviously, going via Crewe is far superior if you assume that no fast east-west route exists.

A quick look at the terrain indicates a mostly viaduct route east of Stoke is probably feasible without huge amounts of demolition, however it is built it would probably be shorter, and provide access into Stoke via the line to Derby.
Potential for an A50 parkway station only 9km from ALton Towers too I guess!

 

[The Planner]

The current 8tph LNR services + approximately 9tph using capacity freed up by removing all Avanti services. The relevance of removing 125mph units would be all units serving NR Euston would be of the same standard, with same turn around requirements and run by same operator.

Is the six platform plan now going back to the original two phase build but not building the second phase? That would reduce the NR station to 11 platforms. Something radical like my suggestion would be necessary with such limited platform capacity.

Depends on where they have come from, longer distance largely requires longer turnarounds. Not all 9tph go remember.

 

[Chester1]

Depends on where they have come from, longer distance largely requires longer turnarounds. Not all 9tph go remember.

I am aware that was the plan but I am not convinced its tennable to keep any of them. We don't know size of NR station and the government is proposing to electrify North Wales main line, which would open up possibility of a HS2 service (splitting and joining with another 200m set). At that stage it would be easier to ditch Shrewsbury services and give fast WCML London - Birmingham services to LNR using units compatible with their current fleet.

Potentially there could be a revival of Crossrail to Tring (as a TfL managed project). Until we know how much of Euston HS2 site will be used for development its hard to know how many services the NR station will be able to support.

 

[The Planner]

Potentially there could be a revival of Crossrail to Tring (as a TfL managed project). Until we know how much of Euston HS2 site will be used for development its hard to know how many services the NR station will be able to support.

Tfl didn't want to pay for it last time, what has changed?

 

[Chester1]

Tfl didn't want to pay for it last time, what has changed?

Treasury could pay for it if it lowers the headline cost of HS2 by freeing up land at Euston for development. I am not advocating for it or saying it is a rational policy but I am saying its plausible....

 

[Clayton]

I live in Northamptonshire and I'm actually not that far away from Brackley where HS2 Phase 1 is passing.

I have seen my local MP, Andrea Leadsom has called for Brackley to get a station on the line, which I think makes absolute sense, it would be a massively welcome, especially when the Formula 1 is on at Silverstone, we get something like 500,000 people come every year for it, and so getting a station built at Brackley would be sensible.

Interestingly, a lot of the local community seem supportive of the idea. https://www.facebook.com/andrealead...5&notif_t=feedback_reaction_generic&ref=notif

She’s doing her job as a constituency MP and I do agree it’s a good idea. The country’s too small to require speed over everything else , and railway lines are meant to have stations. If the design had been more pragmatic from the start it might have been cheaper and more popular.

 

[The Ham]

Treasury could pay for it if it lowers the headline cost of HS2 by freeing up land at Euston for development. I am not advocating for it or saying it is a rational policy but I am saying its plausible....

What was the cost of building the link and associated extra rolling stock?

 

[Chester1]

What was the cost of building the link and associated extra rolling stock?

I don't know. I am not saying it financially makes sense. What I am saying is I think this government is more than capable of giving TfL the money to building the link and get more 345s and then saying we have cut HS2 Euston bill by X amount (despite it being a loss overall to the treasury).

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I don't know. I am not saying it financially makes sense. What I am saying is I think this government is more than capable of giving TfL the money to building the link and get more 345s and then saying we have cut HS2 Euston bill by X amount (despite it being a loss overall to the treasury).

I can't see it myself. Whatever the rights and wrongs of it, the optics of announcing that we're going to fund a new rail line in - of all places - London - would in current circumstances just look horrendous. I don't think Rishi Sunak has that much of a suicide wish!

 

[JonathanH]

government is more than capable of giving TfL the money

The government aren't going to give TfL more money for anything. What interest does TfL have in a railway service to Tring?

 

[d70g]

#

The government aren't going to give TfL more money for anything.

The current government aren't going to give money full stop. When it comes to transport policy, it's basically the last days of Saigon.

 

[HSTEd]

I can't see it myself. Whatever the rights and wrongs of it, the optics of announcing that we're going to fund a new rail line in - of all places - London - would in current circumstances just look horrendous. I don't think Rishi Sunak has that much of a suicide wish!

He announced the axing of a line to Manchester in Manchester!

He could probably sell it as "this will net reduce the cost of HS2 by freeing up extremely valuable land for development".

 

[Chester1]

The government aren't going to give TfL more money for anything. What interest does TfL have in a railway service to Tring?

It would be passengers and revenue for Crossrail. I don't think its particularly likely but at this stage frankly anything that reduces the headline cost of HS2 into Euston will get some consideration by this government.

He announced the axing of a line to Manchester in Manchester!

He could probably sell it as "this will net reduce the cost of HS2 by freeing up extremely valuable land for development".

That is precisely the lunatic logic I am thinking of.

 

[JonathanH]

It would be passengers and revenue for Crossrail. I don't think its particularly likely but at this stage frankly anything that reduces the headline cost of HS2 into Euston will get some consideration by this government.

The government's budget for Euston is seemingly zero. Either it gets built by selling off land, or it doesn't get built. The headline cost is irrelevant.

Paying TfL to run trains to Tring costs money. In terms of the Elizabeth Line it would just cause more disruption.

 

[Chester1]

The government's budget for Euston is seemingly zero. Either it gets built by selling off land, or it doesn't get built. The headline cost is irrelevant. .

Has this been stated? I thought it was no additional funding above the originally planned amount.

 

[Arkeeos]

Has this been stated? I thought it was no additional funding above the originally planned amount.

Its supposed to magically make them 6.4bn, I don't know how they came to that number, seems made up.

Question: who is going to buy land that the government currently has the powers to compulsory purchase?

 

[MPW]

It will be a simple financing structure for crossrail to tring:
1. Register a company in Panama called Network North-Mogg (NMN)
2. NMN owns a company registered at a shiny new office in Surrey to be named "new Bradford Station " employing a staff of 50 northerners* each doing one hour a week of paper shredding (thus creating 50 new jobs)
3. Government pays NMN for a consultancy contract, all funds go towards converting euston into a car park
4. Cut taxes

*members of the Conservative party from Northern Surrey

 

[JonathanH]

Has this been stated? I thought it was no additional funding above the originally planned amount.

That is what I take from this BBC article - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67021225/

The HS2 rail line will not be extended to London Euston unless enough private investment is secured for the project.

If cash is not put forward by private funds, the high-speed line will only run from Birmingham to Old Oak Common in the capital's western suburbs.

This would mean passengers travelling to central London would have to change.

The government has said it is "getting a grip of plans" for Euston, adding there had been two "unaffordable designs" for a "gold-plated" station.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Which bit of 'there isn't enough money to build Euston' does that tick the box for? There are underground railways at Euston blocking the way of any onward routeing.

A deeper station costs more money and going beyond Euston costs more money, certainly more than would be saved by having a deeper level four platform through station.

I would not bother with the onward routing immediately. Just try to make Euston as suitable as possible for a future extension if demand is there (probably when/if HS2 further extensions happen). Trying to do it as cheaply as possible without making a future extension to a terminus beyond Euston more impossible than it could be.

I fear though that there is so little money and appetite for Euston HS2 anyway that it won't get built and the runt of HS2 will serve as a beacon causing people to think never again.... That is the biggest disaster.

 

[Chester1]

That is what I take from this BBC article - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67021225/

I know land is valuable in central London but even if its 11 NR platforms and 6 HS platforms like in phase 1 of original plan, surely the remaining land is not worth close to £6.4bn? I took from that article that the development needs to pay for the funding shortfall. Its hopefully enough to keep Euston - Old Oak Common protected until Labour win election.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

Was a route east of Stoke (for destinations west of the Pennines) ever considered?

I assume the availability of land at Crewe has always attracted a route further west.

Surely going to Crewe was just as much a political fudge to allow HS2 to be called an England and Wales project thereby obviating any need for additional Barnett funding for the WG.

 

[HSTEd]

Surely going to Crewe was just as much a political fudge to allow HS2 to be called an England and Wales project thereby obviating any need for additional Barnett funding for the WG.

I doubt it, given that Handsacre makes just as much sense as Crewe in that regard, given that no high speed trainsets can use the North Wales Line unless it is electrified.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

I doubt it, given that Handsacre makes just as much sense as Crewe in that regard, given that no high speed trainsets can use the North Wales Line unless it is electrified.

It was very tenuous!

 

[The Ham]

The government's budget for Euston is seemingly zero. Either it gets built by selling off land, or it doesn't get built. The headline cost is irrelevant.

Paying TfL to run trains to Tring costs money. In terms of the Elizabeth Line it would just cause more disruption.

The governments budget for Euston is between -£9bn (£6.4bn of funding for elsewhere and £2.6bn of funding for HS2 Euston) and -£11.2 (£6.4bn of funding for elsewhere and £4.8bn of funding for HS2 Euston).

Also their wonderful maths is saying that the selling off of the land elsewhere which had been brought will (probably, as we've got some numbers which say this) cover the costs of the contracts which have been let for those phases.

That's all well and good, but unless that land is being sold for more than it was brought for, you've still got to cover the cost of that land as well - so the country is still out of pocket (and potentially by hundreds of millions of pounds).

If HS2 is forced to sell the land quickly, there's no certainty that they are going to make money (especially given blighted properties were supposed to have been brought at a premium) - as often to sell quickly you have to offer it at a cheap price.

Add to that the high mortgages costs meaning that house prices have been fairly flat for a while now and it's not going to be easy to sell at a price which makes money (even if you weren't trying to do so quickly).

 

[Arkeeos]

If HS2 is forced to sell the land quickly, there's no certainty that they are going to make money (especially given blighted properties were supposed to have been brought at a premium) - as often to sell quickly you have to offer it at a cheap price.

Who exactly is going to buy land that the government has powers to compulsory purchase until 2026?

We will see just how much of spiteful scorched earth policy this is based on how quick they try and sell off the land, they would have to be selling it off at a significant discount to get any purchases, or they could wait until phase2a gets repealed but they will likely be out of government by then.

 

[AndrewE]

Who exactly is going to buy land that the government has powers to compulsory purchase until 2026?

We will see just how much of spiteful scorched earth policy this is based on how quick they try and sell off the land, they would have to be selling it off at a significant discount to get any purchases, or they could wait until phase2a gets repealed but they will likely be out of government by then.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/05/sunaks-spiteful-sale-of-land-intended-for-hs2-dashes-hopes-of-revival:

Sunak’s ‘spiteful’ sale of land intended for HS2 dashes hopes of revival​

Prime minister’s move criticised as ‘salting the earth’ so Birmingham-Crewe line cannot be built


A future Labour government would not be able to easily reverse Rishi Sunak’s decision to scrap the northern leg of HS2 as he has “spitefully” authorised the sale of properties that were subject to compulsory purchase orders on part of the route.
Steve Rotheram, the mayor of the Liverpool city region, said the move killed HS2 “stone dead” and would “tie any future government’s hands and make the delivery of HS2 for the north all but impossible”.

Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, on Thursday refused to commit to building HS2, telling ITV News Meridian: “What I can’t do is stand here now they have taken a wrecking ball to this project, and say that we will simply reverse it.
“What I will say is we will work with leaders across the country to make sure that we have the transport we need between our cities and within our cities and projects that can actually be delivered.”
National Labour proponents of HS2 were blindsided on Wednesday when the prime minister not only cancelled the Manchester leg but made it extremely difficult for the project to be restarted. “We expected him to kick it into the long grass,” said one party source. “We are now trying to understand where this leaves us. Selling off the land was unexpected.”

Gareth Dennis, a railway engineer and writer, said the decision to sell off the land was motivated by “spite” and was, in effect, “salting the earth” to make it extremely difficult for Labour to restart the project.

The Department for Transport (DfT) said that within “weeks” it would lift the so-called “safeguarding” order on phase 2a of the route, which would have run from Birmingham to Crewe in Cheshire. Safeguarding is the process HS2 Ltd and the government use to buy up land needed for the railway.

As of last week, HS2 Ltd had bought up 239 properties on phase 2a at a cost of £219.3m. “Any property that is no longer required for HS2 will be sold and a programme is being developed to do this,” said the DfT in its Network North prospectus, released on Wednesday.

“Phase 2a safeguarding will be formally lifted in weeks,” said the document.

Note the last quote "As of last week, HS2 Ltd had bought up 239 properties on phase 2a at a cost of £219.3m. “Any property that is no longer required for HS2 will be sold and a programme is being developed to do this,” said the DfT in its Network North prospectus, released on Wednesday.
“Phase 2a safeguarding will be formally lifted in weeks,” said the document."

 

[Arkeeos]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/05/sunaks-spiteful-sale-of-land-intended-for-hs2-dashes-hopes-of-revival:

Note the last quote "As of last week, HS2 Ltd had bought up 239 properties on phase 2a at a cost of £219.3m. “Any property that is no longer required for HS2 will be sold and a programme is being developed to do this,” said the DfT in its Network North prospectus, released on Wednesday.
“Phase 2a safeguarding will be formally lifted in weeks,” said the document."

They can try and sell them, but who is going to buy it when the government has compulsory powers still?

 

[yorksrob]

Manchester and the North West has lost a future main line which would have provided relief and capacity to existing main line services.

In my opinion, to partially offset this, Manchester's other main line to London via Bakewell should be reopened and the entire Midland main line electrified and upgraded.

 

[Peter Sarf]

They can try and sell them, but who is going to buy it when the government has compulsory powers still?

I can imagine the only takers might be people who wanted their house back. This assumes they can sell their replacement quickly or had moved (temporarily) to rented accommodation.

I wonder how easy it is to get a mortgage on a property where the government still has compulsory purchase powers ?. Especially if the value is up for debate.

Yes it is looking spiteful and incompetent.

I find myself comparing this to the redevelopment of Croydon's main shopping centre "Whitgift" into a "Westfield" which has been on and off for over ten years. For the third time it is currently on. Most of the existing shoppers won't find a "Westfield" useful. Its a bit like arguing that many might not find HS2 useful - not sure anyone has really sat down and figured it - I was in favour of HS2 (maybe not all the detail) but have no interest in doing my weekly shop at an upmarket mall. Furthermore over 50% of the shops have moved out. So both are causing planning blight over a painfully long period and heading for no positive result.

I think it is safe to say that the bigger the project the more risk there is of things going wrong. However to see HS2 poisoned in this way is disgusting. It should at least be possible to leave HS2 future proofed - So not strangling it with a just big enough for today plot at Euston and throwing away the possibility for Phase 2a which might be attractive to private enterprise as it is (was) probably the cheapest part of Phases 1 and 2 and improves HS2s viability.

Manchester and the North West has lost a future main line which would have provided relief and capacity to existing main line services.

In my opinion, to partially offset this, Manchester's other main line to London via Bakewell should be reopened and the entire Midland main line electrified and upgraded.

I like that. With the trains from St Pancras ending at the very place (lovely roof) where Rishi let us know trains are out of fashion.

 

[Arkeeos]

I wonder how easy it is to get a mortgage on a property where the government still has compulsory purchase powers ?. Especially if the value is up for debate.

Has this ever happened before, could be unprecedented.

Like I said they would have to sell it at a discount to get any takers, but that would be such blatant politicking that they probably won’t try and pull that stunt.