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HS4Air – “An M25 for high speed trains”

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MarlowDonkey

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I wonder how realistic a prospect it is .

The perceived need for passport and immigration checks torpedoed the notion of direct trains to France, Belgium, Germany and Holland from any stations other than a limited few which were set up to segregate international passengers from domestic ones. So that's just Ashford, Ebbsfleet, Stratford and St Pancras. Previously also Waterloo and Kensington Olympia.

Back in the 1990s, they even got as far as building some day and night trains for services to and from Europe from beyond London.
 
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MarkRedon

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Also runway capacity at LGW and LHR, the fact that for such a short flight turbofans are particularly inefficient (they're pretty bad except as high-altitude cruise) and turbofans cause chaos at LHR (though we do have some again, in the form of FlyBe's domestic flights) due to their relatively low take-off and landing speeds...

Possibly a slight confusion of turbofans with turboprops? Most of the FlyBe domestic flights are flown by Q400 Dash-8 aircraft, powered by turboprops. These can fly short-range sectors with negligible time disadvantage by comparison with "jets". All modern so-called "jet" airliners are powered by turbofans or (very recently) by ducted fans. Turboprop aircraft are in a tiny minority by comparison with "jets", but they would undoubtedly be more efficient for an LHR to LGW shuttle than turbofans. One significant restriction is that no turboprop aircraft currently used commercially carries more than 90 passengers.

However, I think the entire proposition is flawed. I doubt that Heathrow would want their new runway to be snarled up by local turboprops, and LGW's main selling point over LHR is available but limited capacity. Given that flight transfers these days involve security clearance for the passengers and time-consuming and occasionally unreliable baggage transfers; and given that a shuttle flight might operate at 30-minute intervals; the average journey time would not beat a road transfer by a useful margin. But then again, nor would "HS4"... for which the transfer time might be the best part of a decade!
 

gsnedders

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Possibly a slight confusion of turbofans with turboprops? Most of the FlyBe domestic flights are flown by Q400 Dash-8 aircraft, powered by turboprops. These can fly short-range sectors with negligible time disadvantage by comparison with "jets". All modern so-called "jet" airliners are powered by turbofans or (very recently) by ducted fans. Turboprop aircraft are in a tiny minority by comparison with "jets", but they would undoubtedly be more efficient for an LHR to LGW shuttle than turbofans. One significant restriction is that no turboprop aircraft currently used commercially carries more than 90 passengers.

Uh, yes, the second "turbofans" should've been turboprops.

However, I think the entire proposition is flawed. I doubt that Heathrow would want their new runway to be snarled up by local turboprops, and LGW's main selling point over LHR is available but limited capacity. Given that flight transfers these days involve security clearance for the passengers and time-consuming and occasionally unreliable baggage transfers; and given that a shuttle flight might operate at 30-minute intervals; the average journey time would not beat a road transfer by a useful margin. But then again, nor would "HS4"... for which the transfer time might be the best part of a decade!
Connections off domestic flights don't require security clearance.
 

MarkRedon

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Off topic, but which airliner uses ducted fans?
Whoops! Not "ducted" fan - sorry, a senior moment referring to a similar but earlier concept - but "geared fan" is the name for the powerplant used on the new Bombardier CS100 / CS300 airframe. The Pratt & Whitney PW1500G is in effect a very high bypass ratio turbofan.

And that's quite enough about aircraft in a railway forum!
 

notlob.divad

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Connections off domestic flights don't require security clearance.

They don't as long as you can stay inside the same sterile area. Still doesn't stop some airports (Charles de gaul springs to mind) sending you back through security clearance.
 

WatcherZero

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In the news again, price tag has been put on it (£10bn from the saving of 40% of its length being upgraded mainline and another 40% would follow the existing motorway alignment) and they have submitted a bid to the market-led joint development fund as they believe it can be commercially funded. Funding wise it looks like they aren't asking for direct government revenue financing but for the government to underwrite infrastructure bonds for the project.
 

Tobbes

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In the news again, price tag has been put on it (£10bn from the saving of 40% of its length being upgraded mainline and another 40% would follow the existing motorway alignment) and they have submitted a bid to the market-led joint development fund as they believe it can be commercially funded. Funding wise it looks like they aren't asking for direct government revenue financing but for the government to underwrite infrastructure bonds for the project.

As a concept, integrating LHR and LGW to the UK HSR network is very sensible, and should have already been planned. The idea that LHR/LGW could be a single hub is however deeply flawed, and not just because they're owned by competing entities. Modern hubs allow for transfers in 60 mins. and to match this, allowing 10 mins walk from gate to station at each end, and a 20 min transit (average speed 110 mph for the 38 miles) means that you can't wait more than 5 mins for a train (to have 5 mins at the gate at the other end). A maximum 5 min wait is 12tph, and it needs to be airside-to-airside, meaning that you go from either Terminal N or S at LGW to either LHR central, T4 or T5.

Assuming the stopping pattern was T5 / LHR Central / T4 / LGW N / LGW S, and you wanted the maximum transit time from T5 to LGW S to be 20 mins, allowing 2 mins per stop you need to be covering the 38 miles between the airports in 14 mins, an average of 163 mph. Assuming that this level of performance is even technically possible on the M25 alignment (ie, I'm not sure any TGVs or e320s can accellerate and brake fast enough), and you can get the baggage off the train to the next flight at better than 99.95% accuracy, then it begins to become a dual hub plan. Until then....
 

InterCity:125

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isn’t this “HS4Air” just crossrail?
And how are they going to fund it after hs2&3?
 
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Tobbes

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Yet you already get itineraries which involve a transfer between airports.

Perhaps, but it isn't more than a tiny minority of passengers at either airport. What this proposes it to treat the combined entity like Atlanta airport.
 

Tobbes

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Forgive my ignorance, but how would it be like Atlanta airport?

In design terms, Atlanta is the modern standard for a hub, with four paralell runways and the terminal piers laid out between them, which makes for maximum efficiency in changing planes for passengers and their luggage. See these two reports: https://centreforum.org/live/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/bigger-and-quieter.pdf ; https://www.centreforum.org/assets/pubs/liberal-case-for-aviation.pdf
 

HSTEd

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As a concept, integrating LHR and LGW to the UK HSR network is very sensible, and should have already been planned. The idea that LHR/LGW could be a single hub is however deeply flawed, and not just because they're owned by competing entities. Modern hubs allow for transfers in 60 mins. and to match this, allowing 10 mins walk from gate to station at each end, and a 20 min transit (average speed 110 mph for the 38 miles) means that you can't wait more than 5 mins for a train (to have 5 mins at the gate at the other end). A maximum 5 min wait is 12tph, and it needs to be airside-to-airside, meaning that you go from either Terminal N or S at LGW to either LHR central, T4 or T5.

This is not the 1980s, we can do far better than that.
Average speed on the 170mph Tokaido Shinkansen is something like 110mph for 20 mile jumps.
On a modern 200mph capable all-axles-motored set we can probably push 15 minutes.

But my preferred solution is a Thames Estuary airport built from the ground up with six parallel runways and away from populated areas for 24 hour operations.

Single airport for the South East.
 

InterCity:125

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But my preferred solution is a Thames Estuary airport built from the ground up with six parallel runways and away from populated areas for 24 hour operations.

It will take ages to make and cost loads, are you going to pay for it? Plus it won’t be ready till 2053 or something.
Single airport for the South East.
Except Heathrow and Gatwick will stay open and eventually we’ll run out of space for new runways.
 

HSTEd

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It will take ages to make and cost loads, are you going to pay for it?
So instead we resort to sticking plasters that will leave us with a drastically suboptimal solution?

Heathrow is a terrible place for an airport, indeed I would go to say so far as to say it will soon become untenable.
And Gatwick is hardly much better.
Plus it won’t be ready till 2053 or something.
Only if we squander 20 years on consultants.
Except Heathrow and Gatwick will stay open and eventually we’ll run out of space for new runways.
Why would they stay open?
Heathrow, and to a lesser but still substantial extent, causes enormous externalities.
They would be taxed out of existance by expecting them to actually pay for those externalities, or simply nationalised and closed down.

Heathrow would be far more useful as a high density residential development, for example.
 

si404

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Where are the pathways on HS2 for the trains to go North-Airports-Europe? It's a key part of their business case for the line, but either frequency to London from a core city would have to be reduced, or fewer Northern destinations served by HS2 if they want to have avoid-London running. Neither can be easily justified here.

Also, I highly doubt a high-speed line running North-Heathrow-Gatwick-Ashford-Europe will take much traffic off the M25, where traffic is more regional. Ditto any HS1-HS2 link (cf the Greengauge report that had only about a sixth of traffic not starting/ending in the SE, and over half not actually leaving it).

Heathwick is not a solution to the airport capacity gap. While their complaints about being 'full' are laughable given the year-on-year continued growth in traffic at both airports, no extra capacity has been created and utilisation is soon going to hit a hard barrier: there's only so much more than can be squeezed out of those three runways. Either have both airports as competing 2-runway hub airports that are top-10 globally for traffic, or have Heathrow as a 3-runway uber-hub 130% the traffic of its nearest competitor (Atlanta, or Dubai) and Gatwick reduced to Stansted/Manchester levels of traffic.

It's all stuff that looks good at first glance, but doesn't bare scrutiny well.

PS: a super hub airport is similarly sensible-looking, but silly. It's like a single Hauptbahnhof for London - there's too much traffic to send through one place, just with consolidation and without the extra transfer traffic. And that's before you get to single-point-of-failure issues where a small fire (or whatever) can cripple a whole mode because the eggs have been put in one basket and that basket has been dropped.
 

HSTEd

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Either have both airports as competing 2-runway hub airports that are top-10 globally for traffic, or have Heathrow as a 3-runway uber-hub 130% the traffic of its nearest competitor (Atlanta, or Dubai) and Gatwick reduced to Stansted/Manchester levels of traffic.

It's all stuff that looks good at first glance, but doesn't bare scrutiny well.

PS: a super hub airport is similarly sensible-looking, but silly. It's like a single Hauptbahnhof for London - there's too much traffic to send through one place, just with consolidation and without the extra transfer traffic. And that's before you get to single-point-of-failure issues where a small fire (or whatever) can cripple a whole mode because the eggs have been put in one basket and that basket has been dropped.

The fact that Hartsfield-Jackson Airport functions as well as it does seem to demonstrate that ultra-large airports are possible in an engineering sense. (IN terms of aircraft movements it puts Heathrow to shame, and Waterloo handles more passengers than Heathrow, so moving that number of people around a building is not infeasible)

And engineers go to enormous lengths to eliminate single points of failure, and barring weather it is hard to concieve of an accident that would shut down the entirity of such a large six runway airport that would not take out Gatwick and Heathrow regardless (essentially all I can think of would be huge weather type events).

Fires in airports are relatively rare and unless the fire was on the field it would likely be contained by fire suppression rapidly, and airport operations can continue around it. (And modern drenching systems can supress on field fires in minutes)

There is a reason that essentially no other cities have this many airports - it is a suboptimal arrangement.
 
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HSTEd

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New York, Paris...

New York has three primary airports, Paris has two.

London has.... Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted and Luton, at the least.

(Including Le Bourget means you have to include the likes of City Airport)
 

Bald Rick

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New York has three primary airports, Paris has two.

London has.... Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted and Luton, at the least.

(Including Le Bourget means you have to include the likes of City Airport)

Depends on the definition of primary.

NY also has Westchester and Long Island airports; each have well over a million pax pa. You can get to both of these without leaving the the NY Metropolitan area

Paris Beauvais gets nearly 4m pax pa.

A London estuary airport is simply not going to happen. Even with super high speed links, it would make the average land journey to the airport much longer than today. Personally I quite like being able to get from bed to departure lounge in Luton in under 30 minutes.
 

HSTEd

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Depends on the definition of primary.

NY also has Westchester and Long Island airports; each have well over a million pax pa. You can get to both of these without leaving the the NY Metropolitan area
A million passengers pa increases the count of London Airports significantly.

Paris Beauvais gets nearly 4m pax pa.

Which makes it about comparable with London City, which is not a particularily large airport.

A London estuary airport is simply not going to happen. Even with super high speed links, it would make the average land journey to the airport much longer than today. Personally I quite like being able to get from bed to departure lounge in Luton in under 30 minutes.
Considering Victoria to Gatwick is 35 minutes, an Estuary Airport with a purpose built links is not going to do that much worse.
Assuming you build a new tunnel from Canary Wharf Crossrail trains, you would be looking at ~30 minutes from there to the Airport, and there are the spare Crossrail paths, at the top speed of the existing Crossrail stock.

(An all axles motored Crossrail PED compatible 140mph stock setup would eat up the distance in a very short time, assuming you could fit enough tractive effort and power to keep up in the core)
Even using Abbey Wood you will not be doing too badly.

And that is before we consider other potential transport links.

The fact remains that Heathrow and Gatwick spread air pollution and noise pollution over heavily populated areas, doing this is barely acceptable today and willl only become less acceptable over time.
The sooner the Government accept this and stops pouring money (both in investment and in subsidies of externalities) into airports that will have to be abandoned eventually the better.
 
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