I was wrong - they were right!

[modernrail]

There are lots of predictions by forum members on the threads of this site. Many often seem to be common sense and turn out to be right. Predictions of problems with feast or famine on rolling stock procurement for instance.

But…. Are there any predictions or points you have made where you are happy to admit the other person…. Or even dare I say it, the DfT or other relevant organisation was actually correct to take the stance it took and things have turned out for the better as a result.

I am sat on an Avanti to London and although I still think throwing lots of seats away feels like a terrible waste, I have to admit the new interior is a LOT better than the old. So, would have been better if they got it more right first time but probably glad they went for this approach.

 

[jfowkes]

I predicted that the government wouldn't be insane enough to cancel HS2 Phase 2. Lots of people said they would and they were right.

I also said the government wouldn't be insane enough to cancel HS2 from OOC to Euston and that appears to be in jeopardy as well...

 

[james_the_xv]

I predicted that the government wouldn't be insane enough to cancel HS2 Phase 2.

I also said the government wouldn't be insane enough to cancel HS2 from OOC to Euston and that appears to be in jeopardy as well...

Please refrain from making any more predictions

 

[DynamicSpirit]

But…. Are there any predictions or points you have made where you are happy to admit the other person….

Me? Wrong about something?!?!?!?! My good friend, that's totally impossible! An utterly ridiculous notion!

 

[MotCO]

Me? Wrong about something?!?!?!?! My good friend, that's totally impossible! An utterly ridiculous notion!

Well, that's something you've got wrong

 

[Rail Quest]

I predicted Avanti would come under government control during 2023 which hasn't happened and now I can't see happening given the healthy contract extension. I still believe it should be given their shocking performance this year.

 

[OuterDistant]

I'm not sure if I stated it on here explicitly, but I predicted that the various unions would give up their industrial action with passengers / the government / other stakeholders being willing and able to hold out indefinitely. It hasn't quite panned out like that!

 

[61653 HTAFC]

I was pretty certain that Huddersfield to Sheffield would not get anything but the absolute bare minimum investment...
A few weeks ago funding for improvements possibly going as far as doubling the frequency was announced. The one caveat to that is that the extra service in the evening peak, which has been running for the last 30 years, was axed at the recent timetable change.

I was also convinced that the Trans-Pennine Route Upgrade would result in Ravensthorpe station being closed, however it is being rebuilt and relocated the other side of the junction with the Wakefield lines. Just a shame there's been no proper service on the Wakey lines (GC notwithstanding) for the best part of four years. I know TPE now run that way a few times a day, but that's a far cry from the hourly 141 I grew up with.

One I did get right was that Northern Connect would end up being scrapped, though I did expect it to at least exist in some form before the plug was pulled.

 

[py_megapixel]

I believed the debacle with the West Midlands 323s would lead to them sitting in storage and ultimately going for scrap along with their Northern counterparts, with corresponding drops in service quality on Northern EMU routes thanks to 319s taking over. What actually happened - consolidating all the 323s with Northern and doing away with 319s - makes much more sense.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I was pretty certain that Huddersfield to Sheffield would not get anything but the absolute bare minimum investment...
A few weeks ago funding for improvements possibly going as far as doubling the frequency was announced. The one caveat to that is that the extra service in the evening peak, which has been running for the last 30 years, was axed at the recent timetable change.

Really? That does sound like good news! And the first I'd heard about that. Is there more info, or a railforums thread discussing it?

 

[gingerheid]

Not directly train related, but I predicted that the Cambridgeshire Guided Busway would be a commercial disaster in terms of passenger use, that competing bus services using the new A14 would attract more custom and higher levels of service provision, and that there was therefore a chance that the CGB might be rail or metro-ified in the future.

It really pains me to admit that every aspect of this was wrong, and it kinda annoys me that such an illogical service is so well used (it was only a disaster in terms of management of the construction, in terms of passenger numbers on the northern Guideway is surely one of the most remarkably successful bus routes in the country!)

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Really? That does sound like good news! And the first I'd heard about that. Is there more info, or a railforums thread discussing it?

There is a thread, which I'm unable to link to due to being on a mobile. It was moved into the Speculative Discussion section, despite the announcement of the funding being official.

No details of what improvements are being considered have been released as yet, so the discussion was somewhat speculative in terms of what might actually happen. Perhaps that's why it was moved?

 

[Clansman]

I predicted a few years ago that the introduction of Aberdeenshire locals would transform travel habbits in area and would be a resounding success. Since then, it has been a disaster due to poor usage and a subsequent drain on ScotRail's resources.

The same goes for my belief that the HSTs were the correct option that would similarly transform Intercity journeys in Scotland. Whilst this is true purely from a passenger experience point, I overestimated the ability for the powers that be at the time to implement this successfully given how absolutely knackered they are and their need to be replaced sooner rather than later, despite the enhanced quality of journeys - which in turn negatively impacted the ability of passengers to make a journey in the first place (either through cancellations or being subbed for a full and standing 158!).

On a side note, I do hope the member that ramped and raged furiously at suggestions of TPE 802s working passenger services on the WCML can come here and repent their sins - especially since they were so determined through inside information that they were only for driver training and nothing else!

 

[jfowkes]

Not directly train related, but I predicted that the Cambridgeshire Guided Busway would be a commercial disaster in terms of passenger use, that competing bus services using the new A14 would attract more custom and higher levels of service provision, and that there was therefore a chance that the CGB might be rail or metro-ified in the future.

It really pains me to admit that every aspect of this was wrong, and it kinda annoys me that such an illogical service is so well used (it was only a disaster in terms of management of the construction, in terms of passenger numbers on the northern Guideway is surely one of the most remarkably successful bus routes in the country!)

I get the busway into work from Longstanton some days (when I'm too lazy to cycle). Out of curiosity, what do you think is illogical about the service?

(I have my own opinions about the busway, mostly negative ones, I'm keen to hear other people's).

 

[yorksrob]

Not directly train related, but I predicted that the Cambridgeshire Guided Busway would be a commercial disaster in terms of passenger use, that competing bus services using the new A14 would attract more custom and higher levels of service provision, and that there was therefore a chance that the CGB might be rail or metro-ified in the future.

It really pains me to admit that every aspect of this was wrong, and it kinda annoys me that such an illogical service is so well used (it was only a disaster in terms of management of the construction, in terms of passenger numbers on the northern Guideway is surely one of the most remarkably successful bus routes in the country!)

I think the reality is that if you put on a decent bus service, people will tend to use it.

The question is whether you have to tear up a railway line to do that or whether a decent service would have done as well along the A road (and we don't know whether a railway service would have been popular as well).

 

[cf111]

I was convinced that the ScotRail HST introduction would be a roaring success and that it would be a mini-renaissance for Intercity rail travel in Scotland...

 

[Sealink]

Please refrain from making any more predictions

Or predict that they will cancel more and maybe they'll do the opposite!

 

[61653 HTAFC]

I have a vague memory of predicting that the "spare" 185s released by TPE would end up stored, scrapped, or sold overseas... and that the Nova3 sets would be a great success heralding the revival of locomotive-hauled services across the country... definitely egg on my face on that one!

 

[Sealink]

I have a vague memory of predicting that the "spare" 185s released by TPE would end up stored, scrapped, or sold overseas... and that the Nova3 sets would be a great success heralding the revival of locomotive-hauled services across the country... definitely egg on my face on that one!

Not at all, you were thinkng what ant right minded person would think

 

[akm]

I'm looking forward to a flood of posts from everyone who has ever said "of course GBR will sort all this out", or words to that effect... not holding my breath though

 

[modernrail]

I'm looking forward to a flood of posts from everyone who has ever said "of course GBR will sort all this out", or words to that effect... not holding my breath though

That is an interesting one isn’t it. I have a sneaking suspicion that the reluctance to go ahead is dogmatic, in the same way that a certain breed of Tory, the ones that have taken over the party, don’t think industrial strategy is a good idea/think it is communist. It leaves the railways without an intelligent client - that’s my biggest problem with it. No intelligent client = loads of waste and bad decision making.

I noted today the canning of a universal ticket portal as well. That is just madness to me. Has Trainline really innovated in a way the LNER app could not have done? I can book specific seats on LNER, and I am not giving commission away to the private sector for offering to sell me a public sector product. Watching the UBERisation of the London ferries and now the railways makes me feel very uncomfortable. It’s just paying rent to a new landlord that has happened to take a bit of virtual real estate that would not have been hard for the railway industry to own instead.

So maybe I am wrong, maybe a universal portal (maybe building on the LNER app) that captures all the commission back into the system is a bad idea, but that and the GBR certainly don’t feel like bad ideas to me.

 

[Springs Branch]

When the Ordsall Chord was under construction - and probably after Piccadilly 15/16 and other Castlefield enhancements had been putted into the long grass - I began to notice more and more naysayers on the curve's prospects and to hear words such as 'elephant' and 'white'.

"No, no", I remember saying. "Build it and they will come".
Followed by: "Just watch- in a year or two, when it's a roaring success, people will ask how did Manchester ever manage without the Ordsall Chord?"

Ah well.

 

[Blindtraveler]

Another one who welcomed the supposed package of improvements to Scott Rail intercity services and has had a front row seat watching it all go spectacularly wrong, I guess that like others I was so completely fed up with the woeful service provision that we had and indeed in many cases still have the anything might have been an improvement, even narrow bench seated knackered old MK1 steam heat stock, or perhaps I exaggerate slightly.

 

[Sealink]

I read Rail and Modern Railways... I don't understand their approval of ScotRail, who I find appalling. ScorRail in my experience is not good, but journalists big it up so much.

I'm out for drinks at the moment so can't go into detail... But.. I don't think ScotRail are all that


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Translink (NI) have nailed it!

No way will their staff go on strike!

 

[Hadders]

Has Trainline really innovated in a way the LNER app could not have done?

Without Trainline I bet LNER wouldn't have bothered to develop what they did. Also, given the timescales involved in developing these sort of things I suspect what is now the LNER app was developed by VTEC.