Is it time to move to a more localised approach to lockdown?

Mojo

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Yes there is, but it's ok because the police in surrounding areas have said they'll fine / arrest anyone who does.
That's a laugh. The previous lockdown laws were very difficult to police, but at least possible, because everyone was expected to comply. I can't see how the police could stop anything other than putting a ring up around the boundary limits, and random checkpoints within.
 
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C J Snarzell

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One of my friends lives in Leicestershire but fortunately he falls outside the city lockdown zone.

Many people in Leicester will simply venture outside the zone to sample a well deserved pint at a pub come the weekend or travel to other places like Hinkley or Loughborough for general shopping or socialising.

The other factor is that many people who have complied with the National lockdown since March are a little bit fed up now and to suddenly put many residents in Leicester in full local lockdown will meet with many objections and refusals to comply.

As other forum members have commented, the economic consequences for Leicester are catastrophic and most people are not going to stand by and let their livelihoods be destroyed.

CJ
 

birchesgreen

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So small businesses like cafes and independent bars in Leicester have gone through the expense of restocking, deep cleaning, bringing staff back et cetera and now been told all the money is wasted?
 

adc82140

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The scandal is that they've known about this since the second week in June. But they decided to keep the population of Leicester in the dark and allow business owners to think they were going to open on 4th July.
 

Scrotnig

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So small businesses like cafes and independent bars in Leicester have gone through the expense of restocking, deep cleaning, bringing staff back et cetera and now been told all the money is wasted?
Yes that’s exactly what’s happened.

And nobody in government cares even one jot. It’s a staunch Labour area you see. Labour council, Labour mayor, Labour MPs.
 

Huntergreed

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So small businesses like cafes and independent bars in Leicester have gone through the expense of restocking, deep cleaning, bringing staff back et cetera and now been told all the money is wasted?
That‘s correct, but because it isn’t the “big scary virus” the government don’t care about this.

I feel extremely sorry for businesses who have to close due to local lockdowns and I really hope the government will provide a sufficient and significant level of support in order to allow these businesses to stay healthy.
 

MikeWM

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Yes that’s exactly what’s happened.

And nobody in government cares even one jot. It’s a staunch Labour area you see. Labour council, Labour mayor, Labour MPs.
All true. But, without wanting to stray too far into politics, Labour - at least at the national level - haven't exactly opposed the government's lockdown measures, indeed most of the time they seem to have be calling for them to be stricter. (In any event, I've resigned my Labour party membership over this issue).
 

haggishunter

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That‘s correct, but because it isn’t the “big scary virus” the government don’t care about this.

I feel extremely sorry for businesses who have to close due to local lockdowns and I really hope the government will provide a sufficient and significant level of support in order to allow these businesses to stay healthy.
The change to flexible furlough from now will at least help to some extent, previously having taken someone off furlough you needed a 3 week continuous period to put them back on it, so previously a two week local lockdown would have left businesses facing getting no furlough grant or staying closed an extra week. But it does need looked at more widely, because for many businesses a local lockdown could be the final straw.
 

Scrotnig

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The change to flexible furlough from now will at least help to some extent, previously having taken someone off furlough you needed a 3 week continuous period to put them back on it, so previously a two week local lockdown would have left businesses facing getting no furlough grant or staying closed an extra week. But it does need looked at more widely, because for many businesses a local lockdown could be the final straw.
This isn't a two week local lockdown though.

The review is actually on the 18th July but all that will happen then is that it will be extended. Just as the original one was.
 

birchesgreen

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I wonder if these local lockdowns will prove a lot harder to enforce than a nationwide one. To use the example from Asterix in the Olympic Games its not easy being a Spartan when your neighbours are stuffing themselves next door.
 

C J Snarzell

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As I've said in my previous post - this local lockdown will not work. A decent person who has adhered to the National lockdown is suddenly having everything taken away from them again because of the potential selfishness of others. It's a bit like the naughty child in the classroom - one unruly pupil misbehaves so the rest of the class get punished. Many people living in the Leicester zone will not adhere to it and the police will have their work cut out enforcing anything.
 

Bletchleyite

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adc82140

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Absolutely nothing. I travel for work. If my town was subject to a lockdown, there's nothing to stop me from doing all my non essential shopping and having a meal out whilst away from home.
 

Envy123

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Yeah, those who need to travel to other towns/cities for work, can easily take their business elsewhere and not flout the rules of essential travel only. But those who don’t, suffer the most. It’s a lose-lose situation and I don’t think it will likely reduce transmission to other towns/cities (it may even increase it).

I know Germany was mentioned earlier in the thread, but the thing is that it’s not as centred around one city like the UK is around London. London house prices are not affordable but that’s where big money can be earned. My town has affordable housing but most jobs are minimum wage here. So I need to travel to London to earn money there. So, a local lockdown for me would be a minor inconvenience and I can use the facilities in London. Whereas in Germany, I’d likely live and work in the same city, so it’s a different situation entirely.
 

MikeWM

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Just been reading this is about the data Government are releasing. We only get to hear of positive results from NHS tests. Results from private testing companies aren't released.

This is the case, yes.

But an increase in 'pillar 2' test positives isn't *necessarily* indicative of much at all. For example, if we're finding more asymptomatic or mild cases simply as a result of increased testing - then that doesn't appear to be a problem. The issue is if cases are resulting in more hospitalisation/ICU/death - and so far, there doesn't seem much evidence of that being the case in Leicester.
 

thejuggler

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The idea is to avoid icu use and deaths.

If testing figures aren't released at fine enough grain you don't have data to make a decision on when to lock down and reduce impacts.
 

Bantamzen

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This is the case, yes.

But an increase in 'pillar 2' test positives isn't *necessarily* indicative of much at all. For example, if we're finding more asymptomatic or mild cases simply as a result of increased testing - then that doesn't appear to be a problem. The issue is if cases are resulting in more hospitalisation/ICU/death - and so far, there doesn't seem much evidence of that being the case in Leicester.
And just on the matter of Pillar 2 testing, can I just say one thing?

Serco

That is all....
 

thejuggler

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36 areas are considered at high risk of needing lock down. Without data there will be delay.

Except there won't be data as the contract to one provider says it doesn't have to be made public. Confirmed by a Minister.


The idea that Data Protection is stopping testing information going to councils is for the birds- this is the real reason, they didn’t put it in the contracts in the first place!
 
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nlogax

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While I still think local lockdowns are essential to getting us out of this, I can't see how they'll work properly without a well-engineered contact tracing scheme and a decent app to help it along. The scheme is proving ineffective so far and the app isn't anywhere close to arriving until the autumn. So - again - someone's (or some people) screwed up somewhere.
 

adc82140

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36 areas are considered at high risk of needing lock down.
That 36 was a figment of some over enthusiastic journo's imagination. They are areas where the rate was up from the week before, even a bit. Plymouth was one of them. Up from 2 cases to 3. Local public health officials up and down the country were debunking these rumours yesterday. Wiltshire's caseload went up by one new case last week, yet the Mirror were saying they were having a second wave.
 

Scrotnig

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There surely has to be a case for action against of the irresponsible tabloids and the way they have behaved during this crisis.

They just print literally any old made up rubbish if they think it'll help sell newspapers. Regardless of the effect tis might have on the current public health emergency.

I'm normally far from authoritarian but I don't mind admitting that seeing a few newspaper owners in jail might focus a few minds on promoting responsible journalism.
 

adc82140

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I'm very much in favour of a free press, but conversations will certainly have to be had afterwards about the responsibilities that come with it. But I'm drifting off topic here.
 

thejuggler

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There surely has to be a case for action against of the irresponsible tabloids and the way they have behaved during this crisis.

They just print literally any old made up rubbish if they think it'll help sell newspapers. Regardless of the effect tis might have on the current public health emergency.

I'm normally far from authoritarian but I don't mind admitting that seeing a few newspaper owners in jail might focus a few minds on promoting responsible journalism.
It is off topic, but for reasons why the press have behaved the way they have done for decades ask Matt Hancock, He cancelled Leveson 2.
 

Domh245

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That 36 was a figment of some over enthusiastic journo's imagination. They are areas where the rate was up from the week before, even a bit. Plymouth was one of them. Up from 2 cases to 3. Local public health officials up and down the country were debunking these rumours yesterday. Wiltshire's caseload went up by one new case last week, yet the Mirror were saying they were having a second wave.
Whilst the Journalist's reporting may have been a load of bunkum, we can't actually draw any conclusions about case numbers from the data available, as discussed above. Anything published by the government with a geographic 'tag' is pillar 1 - ie samples taken from medical staff and those actually in hospital. The useful data is the pillar 2 data taken from the public in a wider setting but for which there is absolutely no information whatsoever released other than the number of positive tests detected in the previous 24 hours - no breakdown of when or where the sample was taken. The numbers such as Plymouth going from 1 case to 3, or Wiltshire recording an additional case are the blue bars from the tweet linked in post 100, the actual picture will be worse than data available to all bar the government themselves will show.
 

JamesT

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