Jersey and Guernsey rail tunnel

[yoyothehobo]

If the pay was good enough...

I will take that as a no....

 

[eldomtom2]

I will take that as a no....

It's a "don't really know". As far as I'm aware there's been no study on the topic.

 

[Howardh]

Even if it were economically sound today, as restrictions on incomers from France and vice-versa take a grip later this year and next, I assume fewer visitors down the line, so income would be reduced whether rail, rail/car or just vehicles.

I doubt it would happen anyway, regardless of the above, much better to concentrate on inter island links and that with the UK and France.

 

[eldomtom2]

Even if it were economically sound today, as restrictions on incomers from France and vice-versa take a grip later this year and next, I assume fewer visitors down the line, so income would be reduced whether rail, rail/car or just vehicles.

Seems a bit odd to treat such restrictions as unchangeable...

 

[Chester1]

Even if it were economically sound today, as restrictions on incomers from France and vice-versa take a grip later this year and next, I assume fewer visitors down the line, so income would be reduced whether rail, rail/car or just vehicles.

I doubt it would happen anyway, regardless of the above, much better to concentrate on inter island links and that with the UK and France.

Neither EES/ETIAs or UK ETA are likely to cause more than a temporary drop in visitors. People only need fingerprinting and have their photo taken on first visit and then first visits with a new passport. Border formalities will be quicker once the systems have bedded in.

Seems a bit odd to treat such restrictions as unchangeable...

The Channel Islands could go for the sort of deal Gibraltar and EU are trying to negoiate (membership of Schengen but outside of single market and no freedom of movement for work and study). They would need to leave the Common Travel Area to do that. Gibraltar is different because its not part of the CTA and there is already a border when you fly in and out of Gibraltar.

 

[Howardh]

Neither EES/ETIAs or UK ETA are likely to cause more than a temporary drop in visitors. People only need fingerprinting and have their photo taken on first visit and then first visits with a new passport. Border formalities will be quicker once the systems have bedded in.



The Channel Islands could go for the sort of deal Gibraltar and EU are trying to negoiate (membership of Schengen but outside of single market and no freedom of movement for work and study). They would need to leave the Common Travel Area to do that. Gibraltar is different because its not part of the CTA and there is already a border when you fly in and out of Gibraltar.

They will also require passports too, something many don't have as all you need to move around the EU//EEA is an id card, I'd love to know what percentage of European adults don't have a passport at all?
If it's a high number, can we convince them to part with nearly 100 euros so they can come to the UK or Channel Islands?
Notwithstanding they can go to Ireland with just that id card and sneak over the border without passport of course!!

Edit, last time I was in Guernsey they were allowing day trips from France for id card holders only, that will end later this year and the authorities are worried about the drop on income. I'm off to Jersey shortly and I'll ask around!

 

[Murray J]

Who would use it? Certainly from the UK the journey would be roundabout and pointless, easier to just get the ferry or fly. And even if you could get 50% of the 'off lslands' passengers, which given the geography I mentioned above would be a strech, how many would this amount to?

This is a good point, Guernsey and Jersey are culturally far closer to the UK than France. I'm not saying that it wouldn't make it's money back but this probably isn't a good idea. Also worth noting that from memory ferry links between Jersey and Guernsey aren't too bad.

 

[Technologist]

All the battery planes flying today have performance that is positively pitiful by modern standards.
Flight speeds are more like a 100knots than the 400+ knots of modern airliners.

Various academic studies have suggested that even with the absolute best battery technology likely to be available in a climate-relevant future timeframe will top out at about 200nm at airliner like performance (400Wh/kg).
Even then this aircraft will have serious struggles in terms of takeoff weight. Batteries actually available today are more like 200Wh/kg.

The actual electric planes flying today will struggle to beat hovercraft with vastly greater payload fractions.

You can find an academic who will write any old crap, analysis here are mostly constrained by assumptions that a battery power plane must be used and designed like a kerosene powered one.

The Eviation Alice can fly at 260Kn with a 250nm useful operating range. Notably 50% of its range is consumed with various safety margins , so 20% more battery energy density will get you 40% more operational range range.

It's also pretty far from the bleeding edge of what is possible aerodynamically and as previously stated these are 1st generation machines. Expect lift to drag ratios to go up about 50% vs the Alice in the next 10-15 years, maybe an extra 10-20% of the mass fraction going to batteries (due to structural batteries and better pack integration) and about 50% more energy density into the batteries, that would get you to a 1100nm useful range.

That is plenty far enough to have a massive effect on air transport, electric aircraft have much lower maintenance burdens and much cheaper fuel, they are also critically much quieter and eventually likely much cheaper to purchase. While 260kn doesn't sound fast it is actually faster than the door to door time for most people's trans Atlantic flights never mind a regional flight.

Thus we might start with an eVTOL flight originating from a pad 5-15 min taxi ride from most people's homes linking to an air port which operates more like a bus station than an airport. Dozens of sub 20 seat eVTOL regionals with 200-300nm ranges arrive there every few minutes and due to their size the security requirements are a fraction of what we have today (also no hold baggage, if you want to move heavier stuff send it by freight courier). Due to the size of the craft changing vehicles is no more of a burden than changing trains so longer trips across continents are possible by daisy chaining multiple flights together. For longer segments more conventional 20-50 seat eRegional aircraft are used. The door to door time is thus comparable to flying today at ranges in the thousands of miles, much like a high speed train is faster door to door than flying 400 miles or less.

Since this system is spun out of eVTOL its likely that it might not even operate with fixed timetables but as an AI powered "on demand" service where you pay less the longer ahead you book and the more flexible you are with start time for your journey and flight duration. You don't even need 6000nm + range planes to replicate todays network you just need to be able to get across major oceans at their narrowest point which equates to a ~1800nm range. This isn't going to happen all at once but it is very likely to happen given the economic factors in favour of electrification and the massive resources being pointed at this sector.

 

[yorksrob]

This sounds like one of Charlie Hungerfords schemes !

 

[Chester1]

They will also require passports too, something many don't have as all you need to move around the EU//EEA is an id card, I'd love to know what percentage of European adults don't have a passport at all?
If it's a high number, can we convince them to part with nearly 100 euros so they can come to the UK or Channel Islands?
Notwithstanding they can go to Ireland with just that id card and sneak over the border without passport of course!!

Edit, last time I was in Guernsey they were allowing day trips from France for id card holders only, that will end later this year and the authorities are worried about the drop on income. I'm off to Jersey shortly and I'll ask around!

Pasports have been required to enter the UK since 2022. I think that also applies to most visitors to the Channel Islands.

Your point about Ireland and crossing the border into UK is repeated a lot as an example of the supposed futility of any additional measures to control entry into the UK. Its not that simple. Ireland rejects entry to over 500 people a year that they believe are entering Ireland for the purpose of entering the UK without permission (UK does the same for suspected illegal entrants to Ireland). The land border is porus but flights and ships passengers are monitored. An EU citizen would be able to enter Ireland and then probably avoid being stopped by police when they took a flight from Belfast to a GB airport. What would this achieve apart from not having to register for UK ETA from later this year or next year or not pay €80 for a passport? If stopped by police for any reason during their stay or departure they would be looking at deportation and a minimum 10 year entry ban to the UK. That will be flagged with allied countries so forget being able to visit western countries outside of the EU too.

The advantage of the system I have just described is that there is the ability to tailor some measures to the Channel Islands, with a good degree of confidence that they wouldn't pose a risk to the rest of the CTA. However, no checks would require Channel Islands leaving the CTA and joining Schengen.

 

[AlastairFraser]

If the pay was good enough...

Average annual wage in Jersey is approximately £47,840, or 56,204 Euro at current exchange rates.
The average annual wage in Normandy is approximately 26,712 Euro.
So even if the wage commuters from Normandy was half the Jersey average, they'd be earning more than the Normandy average too.

 

[eldomtom2]

Average annual wage in Jersey is approximately £47,840, or 56,204 Euro at current exchange rates.
The average annual wage in Normandy is approximately 26,712 Euro.
So even if the wage commuters from Normandy was half the Jersey average, they'd be earning more than the Normandy average too.

Of course Jersey residents pay for those higher wages with a higher cost of living. Not sure how the proposed tunnel would affect that in Normandy.

 

[AlastairFraser]

Of course Jersey residents pay for those higher wages with a higher cost of living. Not sure how the proposed tunnel would affect that in Normandy.

It would enable residents in Normandy to access those higher paid jobs with a workable commute.
The current 1.5 hours each way St Malo - Jersey isn't a viable proposition.

 

[eldomtom2]

It would enable residents in Normandy to access those higher paid jobs with a workable commute.
The current 1.5 hours each way St Malo - Jersey isn't a viable proposition.

Yes, I'm not disputing that. I was wondering whether or not the tunnel would cause a raise in costs of living in Normandy.

 

[AlastairFraser]

Yes, I'm not disputing that. I was wondering whether or not the tunnel would cause a raise in costs of living in Normandy.

Normandy is a large region, so I expect any inflationary aspects caused by workers commuting into the CIs would be more localised.

 

[Howardh]

Could work the other way round, I know youngsters born and live in Jersey who still want to live and work there simply can't afford the housing (and move to the UK) so could there be an opening there of them buying a very cheap flat/apartment in Normandy instead and commuting daily? Of course now we have Brexit there could be visa issues, of a UK youngster trying to buy a house in France but without the financial wealth behind them, so rules would need to be adjusted and that may not happen. Pre-Brexit it could have worked though, had the tunnel been available?

 

[zwk500]

Could work the other way round, I know youngsters born and live in Jersey who still want to live and work there simply can't afford the housing (and move to the UK) so could there be an opening there of them buying a very cheap flat/apartment in Normandy instead and commuting daily? Of course now we have Brexit there could be visa issues, of a UK youngster trying to buy a house in France but without the financial wealth behind them, so rules would need to be adjusted and that may not happen. Pre-Brexit it could have worked though, had the tunnel been available?

What are house prices like in Normandy? The visa issues will also be awkward, unless the Channel Islanders have sufficient French (or other EU) heritage/qualification for citizenship.

 

[Howardh]

What are house prices like in Normandy? The visa issues will also be awkward, unless the Channel Islanders have sufficient French (or other EU) heritage/qualification for citizenship.

No idea, but I bet they are way cheaper than Jersey! If there was a tunnel then I would expect prices to rocket in Normandy near the entrance, so as soon as it's planned Jersey folk need to get looking!

Won't happen though, I'll never say never but it's a huge outlay for a small island and if it's government money France might be able to afford it (EU grants for deprived areas??) but Jersey probably can't and I doubt the UK government would help.

I doubt a private company would get involved even if only partly. But who knows?? But I enjoy islands as they are, linked by air and ferry.

I don't like the way Skye was abridged - takes away the remoteness and romance a bit, although I'm sure locals are very happy with it!!

 

[Chester1]

Could work the other way round, I know youngsters born and live in Jersey who still want to live and work there simply can't afford the housing (and move to the UK) so could there be an opening there of them buying a very cheap flat/apartment in Normandy instead and commuting daily? Of course now we have Brexit there could be visa issues, of a UK youngster trying to buy a house in France but without the financial wealth behind them, so rules would need to be adjusted and that may not happen. Pre-Brexit it could have worked though, had the tunnel been available?

The crown dependencies were never in EU and citizenship of Jersey, Guernsey, Isle of Man and the overseas territories is a bit different to "normal" British citizenship. Before, during UK membership of EU and now citizenship rights are a matter of mutual agreements between the two governments and France / EU.

 

[Howardh]

I'm here in Jersey right now and there are plenty of articles in the paper about a tunnel, even what might be inside it like shops! The undercurrent is that it will never happen, and also logistically you have the CTA meeting Schengen and the lack of free movement of goods etc.

That could be solved by Jersey allowing in those with UK photo ID (which would be new as no such checks exist today from the UK and Ireland) and those with EU id.

But that would also mean when we alight at, say, Liverpool from Jersey flights, there would have to be an initial check that we are UK and sent straight to Customs and away, whereas those from outside the UK would need filtering through immigration for thorough checks.

Bit long winded, but any tunnel to Jersey from France would have the same procedure as the Channel Tunnel, but maybe a much lighter touch such as allowing EUs in with simple id cards onto Jersey, as if they then attempted to get to the UK they would have the further checks on arriving on the mainland.

 

[squizzler]

As somebody currently living in Jersey I see the appeal. But I think it is wrong headed to use it as an excuse not to sort out the inequality that exists on the island, by bussing in what I'm sure the powers-that-be consider an expendable workforce from the EU. But fortunately that plan is likely to backfire. Tax havens such as Jersey are a thorn in the side of the EU who would want to take their pound of flesh before allowing such a link to happen.

Technically, I am thinking along the lines of a so-called mousehole single running tunnel, as was proposed for the Channel Tunnel in the 1970s. This presumably explains the choice of a battery Bombardier (sic) Talent, although there seems - on the face of it - little cost benefit from eliminating the need to add electrification to a tunnel which they could simply nail to to the ceiling. Perhaps the idea is to recharge in the tunnel so they can run onto the Normandy network which is not fully electrified yet?

I would widen the section under Jersey to allow a separate metro system between Airport - St Brelades - St Helier - St Clements which form the most developed ribbon of development on the island. Also I would build a freight terminal under La Rue Des Pres trading estate - seemingly above the proposed tunnel - which is a key logistic hub of the island.

I think a fixed link should really have been started about 1000 years ago. If Norman king William had put his resources into such a transformative infrastructure for the Duchy (Jersey was part of Normandy) in the 1060s rather than blowing them on pointless military adventures in Albion and other places, we would have been able to reap a millennium worth of economic benefits by now.

Also worth noting that from memory ferry links between Jersey and Guernsey aren't too bad.

They are too bad. Back in the day there was a choice of operator running passenger catamarans, now it is only Condor with bigger but infrequent car ferries, whose schedule is determined by when they want to serve Poole or Saint Malo not inter-island traffic.

 

[Howardh]

One question; if there ever was a tunnel and it brought in cars (either on rail or as themselves) can Jersey cope with the extra traffic? Roads are densely populated already, especially at peak times, and there isn't much room to expand the current road system, and if it did that would be to the detriment of the scenery, villages and farms.

 

[mike57]

One question; if there ever was a tunnel and it brought in cars (either on rail or as themselves) can Jersey cope with the extra traffic? Roads are densely populated already, especially at peak times, and there isn't much room to expand the current road system, and if it did that would be to the detriment of the scenery, villages and farms.

I think the ability or willingness of the Islands to absorb more people, however they travel, temporary workers, tourists or whatever will limit the potential profiability of any tunnel as there will be no growth. I just cant see it ever getting beyond the discussion stage, there are too many problems to overcome.

 

[Chester1]

As somebody currently living in Jersey I see the appeal. But I think it is wrong headed to use it as an excuse not to sort out the inequality that exists on the island, by bussing in what I'm sure the powers-that-be consider an expendable workforce from the EU. But fortunately that plan is likely to backfire. Tax havens such as Jersey are a thorn in the side of the EU who would want to take their pound of flesh before allowing such a link to happen.

Technically, I am thinking along the lines of a so-called mousehole single running tunnel, as was proposed for the Channel Tunnel in the 1970s. This presumably explains the choice of a battery Bombardier (sic) Talent, although there seems - on the face of it - little cost benefit from eliminating the need to add electrification to a tunnel which they could simply nail to to the ceiling. Perhaps the idea is to recharge in the tunnel so they can run onto the Normandy network which is not fully electrified yet?

I would widen the section under Jersey to allow a separate metro system between Airport - St Brelades - St Helier - St Clements which form the most developed ribbon of development on the island. Also I would build a freight terminal under La Rue Des Pres trading estate - seemingly above the proposed tunnel - which is a key logistic hub of the island.

I haven't been to Guernsey but I remember Jersey having massive beaches at low tide. Wouldn't it just be easier and cheaper to reclaim land around St Hellier to support a growing population?

 

[AlastairFraser]

I haven't been to Guernsey but I remember Jersey having massive beaches at low tide. Wouldn't it just be easier and cheaper to reclaim land around St Hellier to support a growing population?

No, because Jersey living costs can't support a growing population for services-based work. Hence the commuting from areas where living costs are lower.

 

[Howardh]

I haven't been to Guernsey but I remember Jersey having massive beaches at low tide. Wouldn't it just be easier and cheaper to reclaim land around St Hellier to support a growing population?

I was thinking that myself overlooking St Brelades bay, but any reclamation is taking away part of the beauty of the island. Reclaiming land would be very expensive and probably would result in expensive housing, defeating the object.

However there are few opportunities to build unless we go up eg skyscrapers; again to the detriment of the view and ambience.

And if there are more houses then services can't cope as it is, would have to have more hospitals, schools, roads, shops etc to cope.

So it's a no-win for a small island distanced from the mainland.

They do tell me that they aren't overrun by tourists and more affordable hotels would create jobs for the young (who could have rooms in those hotels while they build up a deposit) although, again, it's where do you build them? The long and beautiful west bay would be ideal, but that would then spoil the natural beauty and it's a conservation area anyway.

 

[Chester1]

No, because Jersey living costs can't support a growing population for services-based work. Hence the commuting from areas where living costs are lower.

I was thinking that myself overlooking St Brelades bay, but any reclamation is taking away part of the beauty of the island. Reclaiming land would be very expensive and probably would result in expensive housing, defeating the object.

However there are few opportunities to build unless we go up eg skyscrapers; again to the detriment of the view and ambience.

And if there are more houses then services can't cope as it is, would have to have more hospitals, schools, roads, shops etc to cope.

So it's a no-win for a small island distanced from the mainland.

They do tell me that they aren't overrun by tourists and more affordable hotels would create jobs for the young (who could have rooms in those hotels while they build up a deposit) although, again, it's where do you build them? The long and beautiful west bay would be ideal, but that would then spoil the natural beauty and it's a conservation area anyway.

Gibraltar has built a lot of social and "3 year residency requirement" housing on reclaimed land over the last 40 years at very affordable cost. The latter type can be sold on open market after 30 years. Jersey would need to pick a well connected area with fewer NIMBY residents e.g. in front of West Park. You would be amazed how much housing can be fitted into 5-10 floors. Google "Morrisons, Gibraltar". Its not ideal but its a lot simpler and cheaper way to relieve housing crisis than a tunnel to France. It sounds pie in sky, great for newspapers and a handful of politicians but no chance of getting the wide political support necessary to mortgage the economic future of the island(s).

 

[AlastairFraser]

Gibraltar has built a lot of social and "3 year residency requirement" housing on reclaimed land over the last 40 years at very affordable cost. The latter type can be sold on open market after 30 years. Jersey would need to pick a well connected area with fewer NIMBY residents e.g. in front of West Park. You would be amazed how much housing can be fitted into 5-10 floors. Google "Morrisons, Gibraltar". Its not ideal but its a lot simpler and cheaper way to relieve housing crisis than a tunnel to France. It sounds pie in sky, great for newspapers and a handful of politicians but no chance of getting the wide political support necessary to mortgage the economic future of the island(s).

Gibraltar is a different basket from my POV. Sadly, I can't see any significant increase in the amount of high density housing built on Jersey or Guernsey, due to overwhelming local opposition.

If a road tunnel is too big a investment, would a fast catamaran or hovercraft every 30 mins in the daytime from Gorey on Jersey's eastern coast to Barneville-Carteret, or somewhere close by, work?

 

[mike57]

Barneville-Carteret, or somewhere close by, work?

A fast surface water service would certainly be more practical, however I think the issue is also the French side. Barneville-Carteret only has a 'tourist train' which doesn't appear to connect with SNCF and the road connections are fine for a small town, but wouldn't support a significant traffic increase. This part of Normandy is quite undeveloped, the nearest centre of population is Caen which is about 50 miles as the crow flies. SNCF serve Granville with some through services to Paris, and the A84 cuts across from Caen to Rennes, any high frequency service would need to tie into these. So unless infrastructure was improved on the French side an improved service would be pointless, and it still has the problem that if your destination is the UK this route is a 'long way round' compared with a direct ferry or flight, so would only appeal to French visitors or commuters.

 

[AlastairFraser]

A fast surface water service would certainly be more practical, however I think the issue is also the French side. Barneville-Carteret only has a 'tourist train' which doesn't appear to connect with SNCF and the road connections are fine for a small town, but wouldn't support a significant traffic increase. This part of Normandy is quite undeveloped, the nearest centre of population is Caen which is about 50 miles as the crow flies. SNCF serve Granville with some through services to Paris, and the A84 cuts across from Caen to Rennes, any high frequency service would need to tie into these. So unless infrastructure was improved on the French side an improved service would be pointless, and it still has the problem that if your destination is the UK this route is a 'long way round' compared with a direct ferry or flight, so would only appeal to French visitors or commuters.

I think any plan relying on UK traffic would be a bit pointless, it's more to enable future sustainable economic growth on the Channel Islands by reducing the cost of living and imports.

While the area is underpopulated compared to most European costs, the arrondissement of Coutances (covering the portion of the coast proximate to the CIs) still has a sizeable population to permit commuting (just over 70k in 2021), and access to CI jobs would permit significant population growth in the area.

Granville is a possibility, but the issue is that, even with a high-speed catamaran or hovercraft, at 36 miles from St Helier - you'd be still be looking at an hour and a half each way, which isn't viable for regular commuting.

Gorey to Barneville-Carteret is around 18 miles, which is possible within an hour.