Local lockdown in Greater Manchester, East Lancashire and parts of West Yorkshire - Discussion

Crossover

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Then you find out that for our area ("locked down" again), Kirklees, the positve test results have dropped quite a bit this week (be it still above average, but a drop nonetheless) :rolleyes:
 
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Huntergreed

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Then you find out that for our area ("locked down" again), Kirklees, the positve test results have dropped quite a bit this week (be it still above average, but a drop nonetheless) :rolleyes:
I still can’t entirely figure out why they’ve picked some of the places they have! Half of it seems to be throw a dart on an area and we’ll close it down (Perhaps that’s too sensible for them though!) with only half of it actually related to the virus!
 

Andyh82

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I still can’t entirely figure out why they’ve picked some of the places they have! Half of it seems to be throw a dart on an area and we’ll close it down (Perhaps that’s too sensible for them though!) with only half of it actually related to the virus!
All the areas are next to each other, a big continuous patch with no gaps.
 

Tetchytyke

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I still can’t entirely figure out why they’ve picked some of the places they have! Half of it seems to be throw a dart on an area and we’ll close it down
Both Bolton and Rochdale have fewer cases this week than last, significantly so in the case of Rochdale.

Trafford has more cases, but among young professionals who won't suffer any ill effects- not that you'd know from the Politburo-sanctioned message blaming the Muslim communities, delivered by that greasy backbencher.
 

Bletchleyite

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Just because the media says we're on the edge of a second wave, it doesn't mean that we are. The figures say differently, the decline in cases has tailed off, but I don't see a spike.
There's not a spike but there is a noticeable uptick in almost every place.

Over on the media page I've noted that the BBC is now starting to talk in terms of a 3rd wave!
In some places the shape of the curve has been like that but not everywhere, have a nose here:


To give the man credit where it's due, it's not all that easy to speak in sentences that make sense written down when put on the spot in an interview. It's much easier to do that when you're writing something down. When listening to what someone is saying it to typically sounds a lot more coherent than the transcript might suggest.
Hancock is severely dyslexic (and possibly has more related disabilities) which is the cause of him coming across very "nervous" on interviews etc. I suspect this wasn't the job he signed up for! Health secretaries don't usually give speeches.
 

Tetchytyke

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Hancock is severely dyslexic (and possibly has more related disabilities) which is the cause of him coming across very "nervous" on interviews etc.
Hancock's only disability is that he has the IQ of a potato, as we saw several years ago with his ridiculous Matt Hancock app.

If a Labour politician gave such appalling speeches, you wouldn't be able to move for Laura Kuenssberg tweets mocking them. Can you imagine Diane Abbott getting away with speeches like that?
 

geoffk

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All the areas are next to each other, a big continuous patch with no gaps.
Surely it would have been possible for the Govt to use data on infection rates for individual wards or postcode areas and targetted those, rather than applying a blanket restriction to a huge swathe of the north of England. Much of Calderdale and Kirklees is rural. Where I live, near the border of Greater Manchester and West Yorkshire, there have been no cases, as far as I'm aware. I came back to this news yesterday evening after a couple of days away, having previously been told that it would be Local Authorities making these decisions!
 
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plugwash

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I suspect the reason for doing a big contiguous area is to discourage people who live in the hotspots from traveling outside the hotspot to meet up. I agree it's highly frustrating for low-risk folks caught up in it though.
 

Baxenden Bank

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Hancock's only disability is that he has the IQ of a potato, as we saw several years ago with his ridiculous Matt Hancock app.

If a Labour politician gave such appalling speeches, you wouldn't be able to move for Laura Kuenssberg tweets mocking them. Can you imagine Diane Abbott getting away with speeches like that?
That's not fair, potatoes deserve better. At least they have some good uses.
Perhaps he would be great as a loyal backbench MP, simply serving his constituents.
I have his resignation speech to hand "I'm not up to the job, the country deserves better, I resign".
 

Baxenden Bank

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I suspect the reason for doing a big contiguous area is to discourage people who live in the hotspots from traveling outside the hotspot to meet up. I agree it's highly frustrating for low-risk folks caught up in it though.
Wherever they draw the boundary, there will be people on the edge. It's not as though we all still live an agricultural life, travelling no further than the next village (current personal circumstances excluded). There is a logical boundary - water, so that's England, Wales and Scotland acting together (in union you might say) with the same, simple to understand, logically devised rules. The current method is hopeless for anyone who plans more than a couple of hours ahead. No point booking a cinema ticket, a restaurant, a train ticket or a hotel for even next weekend.
 

Bletchleyite

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Wherever they draw the boundary, there will be people on the edge. It's not as though we all still live an agricultural life, travelling no further than the next village (current personal circumstances excluded). There is a logical boundary - water, so that's England, Wales and Scotland acting together (in union you might say) with the same, simple to understand, logically devised rules. The current method is hopeless for anyone who plans more than a couple of hours ahead. No point booking a cinema ticket, a restaurant, a train ticket or a hotel for even next weekend.
Even if we did move to a system of say 5 levels with fixed measures at each as NZ have (and as I would support), you're still going to have to plan for the worst one as the level could change quickly. It's not a time for planning in advance, it's a time for being ad-hoc. Some people of course find this very difficult, but it isn't avoidable so they are sort of stuck with it.
 

Baxenden Bank

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Even if we did move to a system of say 5 levels with fixed measures at each as NZ have (and as I would support), you're still going to have to plan for the worst one as the level could change quickly. It's not a time for planning in advance, it's a time for being ad-hoc. Some people of course find this very difficult, but it isn't avoidable so they are sort of stuck with it.
Indeed, but one assumes we would move logically, one step at a time, not leap-frogging from level 2 to level 4 over the course of a nice dinner.
From an article in The Guardian today, Andy Burnham knew at 1730 of the new restrictions, yet the twitter message was only issued what, four hours later? and with no detail.
There should be detailed plans already in place, with draft regulations (cut and paste) already written and signed off. After all, they have had since (at least) March to draw up contingency plans.
 

farleigh

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Even if we did move to a system of say 5 levels with fixed measures at each as NZ have (and as I would support), you're still going to have to plan for the worst one as the level could change quickly. It's not a time for planning in advance, it's a time for being ad-hoc. Some people of course find this very difficult, but it isn't avoidable so they are sort of stuck with it.
It is avoidable and I know a few people who are travelling over the weekend to do just that
 

Jozhua

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I don't know if I mentioned my thoughts on the ban on home gatherings specifically at another point in the thread, but their logic for doing it was that "the majority of infections picked up by track and trace were household to household".

But aren't those the only infection chains it can effectively trace, when you know the person who gave it to you? Fat chance of that happening in a restaurant or pub.
 

AdamWW

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I don't know if I mentioned my thoughts on the ban on home gatherings specifically at another point in the thread, but their logic for doing it was that "the majority of infections picked up by track and trace were household to household".

But aren't those the only infection chains it can effectively trace, when you know the person who gave it to you? Fat chance of that happening in a restaurant or pub.
Yes I have been wondering about that.

Someone asked a while ago about evidence that anybody has contracted it in a supermarket. And my thought was - how would you know?
 

Jozhua

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Yes I have been wondering about that.

Someone asked a while ago about evidence that anybody has contracted it in a supermarket. And my thought was - how would you know?
Exactly, the government have likely inadvertently banned the only infection chains their scheme is any good at tracking.

As I've said to friends and family when visiting, if I find you have COVID, I know to immediately self isolate and get tested, if I come into contact with someone in a shop or restaurant, I'll have no idea.

I have no plans to break the rules in the immediate future, but I would feel much more confident being less than two meters away from someone who I know and am in contact with, than "socially distanced" at a pub or restaurant.
 

yorksrob

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But isn't that the point of us giving our contact details in pubs and restaurants ?

There have been a couple of cases where pub goers have had to self isolate.
 

Baxenden Bank

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But isn't that the point of us giving our contact details in pubs and restaurants ?

There have been a couple of cases where pub goers have had to self isolate.
Locally (Stone, Staffordshire), there is an outbreak centred on a pub and an associated private party. Filmed evidence of a crowded beer garden available via various outlets. Police popped along to issue some 'advice'. A clear lack of any effective measures to gather contact details.

PS the police station is within two minutes walk of said pub!
 

yorksrob

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Locally (Stone, Staffordshire), there is an outbreak centred on a pub and an associated private party. Filmed evidence of a crowded beer garden available via various outlets. Police popped along to issue some 'advice'. A clear lack of any effective measures to gather contact details.

PS the police station is within two minutes walk of said pub!
Going by the experience of the beaches and the demonstrations earlier in the year, outdoor in the garden is unlikely to be a driver on its own.
 

Baxenden Bank

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Going by the experience of the beaches and the demonstrations earlier in the year, outdoor in the garden is unlikely to be a driver on its own.
Outdoors socially distanced, no problem. Rammed liked a nightclub with youngsters on the ale, a problem. And therein lies the problem. Responsible drinkers punished by the reckless.
 

Solent&Wessex

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I can see why there is much consternation with the new restrictions.

I live in a rural area on the outskirts of the Bradford district. The PHE covid tracker shows everything ward by ward where there have been more than 3 cases ( https://phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076 ). The ward where I live, and neighbouring wards have had no or less than 3 cases last week, and in most previous weeks. The map clearly shows where the hotspots are and that is generally Bradford city itself and some suburbs which are high density low quality housing mainly with BAME residents. The same is true of many other areas caught up in the lockdown - Halifax for example being a hotspot but the rest of Calderdale being clear.

In all honesty most people I know in our area do not go to Bradford nor associate themselves with Bradford.

The annoyance is that we are being punished for a flare up in very small sectors and community areas focused closely on certain areas in the district which most of us don't go to nor have any dealings with.

Now there is talk of closing all the pubs so the schools can go back? Why not just ban teachers and parents with school age children from going to pubs and let us singletons and child less households get on with it!?!?!?!
 

yorksrob

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Outdoors socially distanced, no problem. Rammed liked a nightclub with youngsters on the ale, a problem. And therein lies the problem. Responsible drinkers punished by the reckless.
Ah well, youngsters are youngsters. I strongly suspect that they're not particularly distanced anywhere !
 

geoffk

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I can see why there is much consternation with the new restrictions.

I live in a rural area on the outskirts of the Bradford district. The PHE covid tracker shows everything ward by ward where there have been more than 3 cases ( https://phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076 ). The ward where I live, and neighbouring wards have had no or less than 3 cases last week, and in most previous weeks. The map clearly shows where the hotspots are and that is generally Bradford city itself and some suburbs which are high density low quality housing mainly with BAME residents. The same is true of many other areas caught up in the lockdown - Halifax for example being a hotspot but the rest of Calderdale being clear.

The annoyance is that we are being punished for a flare up in very small sectors and community areas focused closely on certain areas in the district which most of us don't go to nor have any dealings with.
Same situation for me in Greater Manchester. I live in Littleborough, four miles from the West Yorkshire boundary, no cases or less than 3 in the last week.
 

ForTheLoveOf

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I can see why there is much consternation with the new restrictions.

I live in a rural area on the outskirts of the Bradford district. The PHE covid tracker shows everything ward by ward where there have been more than 3 cases ( https://phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076 ). The ward where I live, and neighbouring wards have had no or less than 3 cases last week, and in most previous weeks. The map clearly shows where the hotspots are and that is generally Bradford city itself and some suburbs which are high density low quality housing mainly with BAME residents. The same is true of many other areas caught up in the lockdown - Halifax for example being a hotspot but the rest of Calderdale being clear.

In all honesty most people I know in our area do not go to Bradford nor associate themselves with Bradford.

The annoyance is that we are being punished for a flare up in very small sectors and community areas focused closely on certain areas in the district which most of us don't go to nor have any dealings with.

Now there is talk of closing all the pubs so the schools can go back? Why not just ban teachers and parents with school age children from going to pubs and let us singletons and child less households get on with it!?!?!?!
Indeed, it tells a fascinating story (though of course confirmed cases only represent a certain percentage of total cases). Interesting how some larger towns and cities, such as Milton Keynes, seem to be entirely Covid free, whereas even
some small places have notable clusters.

The big picture is that for vast parts of the country, and indeed even an overwhelming majority of the wards included in this northern lockdown, there are no known Covid cases. This is cause for celebration but also for thought about how appropriate it is to be continuing with restrictions nationwide when an ever more localised approach would be justifiable.
 

Jozhua

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But isn't that the point of us giving our contact details in pubs and restaurants ?

There have been a couple of cases where pub goers have had to self isolate.
From what I've seen/heard, a lot of places aren't doing it. Pretty sure the government has given the framework for businesses to be able to legally do it, but not required it? The only place I've eaten in at since re-opening was Five Guys, and they weren't taking any contact details before you sit down. A lot of pubs didn't appear to be doing so either.

Also, a ton of shops have given up on limits on people inside, enforcing social distancing or even enforcing the mask wearing.

I honestly doubt any of the pubs or restaurants will do anything unless a staff member tests positive.

Frankly, this seems like a last minute thing for EID, which would make more sense than the reasons they are currently giving.
 

yorksrob

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From what I've seen/heard, a lot of places aren't doing it. Pretty sure the government has given the framework for businesses to be able to legally do it, but not required it? The only place I've eaten in at since re-opening was Five Guys, and they weren't taking any contact details before you sit down. A lot of pubs didn't appear to be doing so either.

Also, a ton of shops have given up on limits on people inside, enforcing social distancing or even enforcing the mask wearing.

I honestly doubt any of the pubs or restaurants will do anything unless a staff member tests positive.

Frankly, this seems like a last minute thing for EID, which would make more sense than the reasons they are currently giving.
All I can say is that I've been to a lot of pubs since they've re-opened, and most of them are taking details. The ones that weren't were still enforcing social distancing.
 

Yew

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Earlier in this thread, someone mentioned that Bradford has gone from 25/100,000 to 35/100,000. How many measurements is that determined from, we'd need around 10,000 tests to even be able to detect such a small difference, and much more to be able to say that it's not simply an artefact of random sampling.
 

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