MEN article-"Northern Rail is crumbling from the inside out and things are only going to get worse"

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Is this the same Ordsall chord that NR said would open up routes to Manchester Airport and allow more trains to run as well as winning awards!

Which are the awards that it won?

 

[jayah]

The works at Castlefield, Manchester Picc P15/16 and Oxford Road remodelling which were promised but not delivered. The TWAO is still in DfT's in tray but wasn't signed off by Chris Grayling despite a promise at the time that it would be.

Piccadilly 15/16 has never been at even an advanced planning stage. Where / how did it become part of the Northern TSR let alone becoming a missing deliverable as soon as late 2019? The Franchise itself is only about 3 years old.

Political promises are worthless, it is contracts that matter.

 

[jayah]

The works at Castlefield, Manchester Picc P15/16 and Oxford Road remodelling which were promised but not delivered. The TWAO is still in DfT's in tray but wasn't signed off by Chris Grayling despite a promise at the time that it would be.

Northern Franchise ITT asked bidders to assume as per a mysterious Bidders Infrastructure Assumptions Document that a package called Northern Hub / NW Electrification will be in place by Dec 17 (CS5).

A number of other enhancements packaged as North Transpennine Electrification were uncertain and not expected by the franchise end or franchise extension period.

Without access to this elusive document I can't say for sure, but it seems very unlikely that anything beyond what was already in flight and was delivered late by end 2018 e.g. Blackpool electrification is in this CS5 state and therefore was a committment for the franchise.

 

[158756]

Piccadilly 15/16 has never been at even an advanced planning stage. Where / how did it become part of the Northern TSR let alone becoming a missing deliverable as soon as late 2019? The Franchise itself is only about 3 years old.

Political promises are worthless, it is contracts that matter.

It's very much not a new idea. According to Network Rail's CP5 delivery plan dated March 2014, GRIP 3 was to be completed later that year, start on site in 2016 and the infrastructure ready for use by December 2018. If Network Rail never did any more planning on it that's pretty disgraceful in my opinion. We all know they can't be trusted to deliver anything on time or in budget, which is part of why the project hasn't got the go ahead, but how on earth did they expect to meet their own targets if the project was and is nowhere near ready to go when the TWAO was granted?

 

[modernrail]

How are services doing today? I am about to hire a car for the new year period as I need to visit my Mum in a hospice on a few of the days and I just can't place any trust whatsoever in the Northern or TPE services. It really is a shambles, with no contrition whatsoever from management or owners beyond standard PR rubbish.

 

[jayah]

It's very much not a new idea. According to Network Rail's CP5 delivery plan dated March 2014, GRIP 3 was to be completed later that year, start on site in 2016 and the infrastructure ready for use by December 2018. If Network Rail never did any more planning on it that's pretty disgraceful in my opinion. We all know they can't be trusted to deliver anything on time or in budget, which is part of why the project hasn't got the go ahead, but how on earth did they expect to meet their own targets if the project was and is nowhere near ready to go when the TWAO was granted?

GRIP 3 is only option section. It sounds a long way behind being part of the Northern franchise.

During 2014 the various schemes have been combined as a Northern Programme including various depot works, Ordsall, the NW electrification and a few oddities like Maghull North. The Rail Technology article covers this in more detail.

It looks like there was a public enquiry into the TWA application in Autumn 2015 but by that stage the winning bid for Northern would have been close to decision so how Northern or anyone else can claim the scheme was a contracted deliverable for the franchise escapes me.

http://www.railtechnologymagazine.com/Inbox/north-of-england-programme/84720

 

[CaptainHaddock]

To add a bit of balance I thought Northern did much better today at the Liverpool end with approx 90% trains running, mostly on time and not a single cancellation for a big chunk of the day! Yesterday was dire though.

It shows how bad things have got if Northern only cancelling 10 per cent of its services is perceived as a good day!

 

[jayah]

It shows how bad things have got if Northern only cancelling 10 per cent of its services is perceived as a good day!

19% CASL at the moment and planned cancellations on 7 lines in the NW.

 

[The Planner]

Evidence is a good thing.

All of the planning rules need an evidence base otherwise they risk becoming a made up work of fiction.

If there were evidence base there wouldn't be much scope for disputes.

As system operator is really does sound like Network Rails job to impose planning rules on TOCs. Otherwise they are managing capacity and performance for you and not very well in many cases.

If you can impose x mins if engineering time between Liverpool and Scarborough and impose the running times between different locations, I don't see why you can't dictate that for every 10mins of running time there is 1min of turnaround time in addition to what is necessary to change crews and cabs. This can be based on typical minutes of delay accumulated on a route.

I keep reading how things went to pot when Network Rail moved their planning team to an old ice hockey stadium in Milton Keynes and lost many 'old hands' but the problems causing all these delays seem more fundamental.

Any change, of any type has to be proposed and agreed, none of it can be imposed. SRTs, TPRs you name it. Much of it is agreed with little issue but a change that suddenly means a path is no longer compliant and cannot be made to be is a different kettle of fish....

 

[Glenn1969]

Of course it isn't just Castlefield. It's also the botched and much delayed NW electrification programme and the fact that the Transpennine Route Upgrade which at one stage was a CP5 project still hasn't started in earnest at the beginning of CP6 and I'm still not sure anyone knows what the scope of it is

I don't think any of these issues have helped Northern or TPE plan their future with any confidence and NR should take as much flak as the operators in my view

 

[Bantamzen]

Of course it isn't just Castlefield. It's also the botched and much delayed NW electrification programme and the fact that the Transpennine Route Upgrade which at one stage was a CP5 project still hasn't started in earnest at the beginning of CP6 and I'm still not sure anyone knows what the scope of it is

I don't think any of these issues have helped Northern or TPE plan their future with any confidence and NR should take as much flak as the operators in my view

There's so much wrong with the current network and how it is run, it is hard to pin-point any one area most a fault. The TOCs won't accept the blame because they would jeopardise future franchise bids, the ROSCOs won't accept the blame because they are making big bags of money, Network Rail won't take the blame because the DfT hold the purse strings, and the DfT won't take the blame because they are politically driven.

Its a perfect storm of a mess, and change needs to be driven from Whitehall & Westminster. Not the current tinkering around with timetables and franchise sizes, but actually accepting that the railway network is a key part of our infrastructure and needs funding properly, not being used as a funding source as current governments seem to want.

 

[jayah]

Of course it isn't just Castlefield. It's also the botched and much delayed NW electrification programme and the fact that the Transpennine Route Upgrade which at one stage was a CP5 project still hasn't started in earnest at the beginning of CP6 and I'm still not sure anyone knows what the scope of it is

I don't think any of these issues have helped Northern or TPE plan their future with any confidence and NR should take as much flak as the operators in my view

In the ITT bidders were told not to expect the TP upgrade during the franchise.

The NW electrification while late has been delivered. The missing enhancements seem to have been those removes by the Hendy Review therefore didn't form part of the planning or bidding.

If they weren't promised, the lack of them can't be blamed.

 

[cactustwirly]

The works at Castlefield, Manchester Picc P15/16 and Oxford Road remodelling which were promised but not delivered. The TWAO is still in DfT's in tray but wasn't signed off by Chris Grayling despite a promise at the time that it would be.

I don't think that was actually promised just a proposal

 

[Glenn1969]

In that case why did DfT approve the TSR if they knew it was going to be undeliverable?

 

[cactustwirly]

Of course it isn't just Castlefield. It's also the botched and much delayed NW electrification programme and the fact that the Transpennine Route Upgrade which at one stage was a CP5 project still hasn't started in earnest at the beginning of CP6 and I'm still not sure anyone knows what the scope of it is

I don't think any of these issues have helped Northern or TPE plan their future with any confidence and NR should take as much flak as the operators in my view

TP route upgrade was never part of CP5, if it's part of CP6 then there are other projects that come before it (ie finishing GW electrification)

 

[cactustwirly]

In that case why did DfT approve the TSR if they knew it was going to be undeliverable?

You'll have to ask them, but the bidders were well aware that Castlefield works (if they ever happen) would not be part of the franchise

 

[Glenn1969]

I'm a believer in an integrated railway and am tempted to suggest NR and the ROSCOs should be abolished and 10 vertical franchises be set up responsible for all aspects of operation in their own area, owning and running tracks, trains and stations. Northern would be one of these, or maybe split in two between NE and NW franchises if one is too big. Of course such an organisation requires a realistic level of funding

As for the present I think the promised transformation should get the chance to be delivered, even if that takes the completion of the Transpennine Upgrade which I think it probably does

Then again I'm only a passenger so what do I know about how things work? Probably not a lot and certainly not enough

 

[158756]

You'll have to ask them, but the bidders were well aware that Castlefield works (if they ever happen) would not be part of the franchise

If it is true that the works were never included in the franchise documents then that is an absurd situation. The TSR's in the ITT (not the agreement with Arriva, the service specifications all bidders had to meet or be thrown out of the competition) require all the current services through Castlefield - already more than can be handled reliably, plus a Manchester Airport to (at least) Bradford service. From what we can see that is literally impossible to deliver on the current infrastructure.

So the DfT position was that they would not accept any bid it was possible to deliver.

 

[faltskog36abba]

Which are the awards that it won?

Most recently the Chord won building of the year at the Riba north west awards, Michael Riley [architect] won architect of the year award. The Chord also won a number of top design awards from the British construction industry.

 

[jayah]

If it is true that the works were never included in the franchise documents then that is an absurd situation. The TSR's in the ITT (not the agreement with Arriva, the service specifications all bidders had to meet or be thrown out of the competition) require all the current services through Castlefield - already more than can be handled reliably, plus a Manchester Airport to (at least) Bradford service. From what we can see that is literally impossible to deliver on the current infrastructure.

So the DfT position was that they would not accept any bid it was possible to deliver.

It appears that the realisation the service doesn't work post Ordsall has come about from experience since it opened rather than some undelivered enhancements.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It appears that the realisation the service doesn't work post Ordsall has come about from experience since it opened rather than some undelivered enhancements.

Thinking it would work was a spectacular piece of incompetence very similar to thinking the LNR cross Birmingham service would work.

 

[Glenn1969]

But given it was in the ITT all the bidders had to bid for it's incompetence by the DfT not Arriva

 

[YorkshireBear]

The 6tpe services per hour service was originally envisaged post electrification and post northern hub. Admittedly by the time the ITT for the franchises came out it had changed to delivering this without those.

The original intention however was certainly a post upgrade ambition when first announced.

 

[Greybeard33]

In the ITT bidders were told not to expect the TP upgrade during the franchise.

The NW electrification while late has been delivered. The missing enhancements seem to have been those removes by the Hendy Review therefore didn't form part of the planning or bidding.

If they weren't promised, the lack of them can't be blamed.

The Northern ITT was published in February 2015. At that time the Network Rail CP5 Enhancements Delivery Plan, December 2014 version, had the GRIP 6 complete milestones for the Oxford Road and Piccadilly schemes as December 2018, as part of the North of England Programmes (LNW) project. They were annotated "Configuration State 7 - Delivers the interventions to enable the operation of the proposed timetable in December 2018". The Ordsall Chord had a GRIP 6 complete milestone of December 2016, as had electrification from Manchester to Preston and Victoria to Stalybridge. These were annotated "Configuration State 5 - Delivers the interventions to enable the operation of the proposed timetable in December 2016".

The TSRs attached to ITT specified service enhancements in two stages, for December 2017 and December 2019. Most of the changes related to the Ordsall Chord were in the 2017 TSRs, but the Bradford - Manchester Airport service, via the Chord, was not required until December 2019. It is a reasonable deduction that this service was considered dependent on the capacity enhancement provided by Oxford Road and Piccadilly schemes.

The Northern franchise award to Arriva was announced on 09 December 2015 and signature of the contract was confirmed on 23 December 2015. The franchise agreement was dated 22 December 2015. The TSRs attached to it included all the Northern Hub service enhancements from the ITT, with the same introduction dates.

The Hendy report was published on 25 November 2015. It did not specifically reference the Oxford Road and Piccadilly schemes, but the Northern Hub project as a whole remained in CP5 with completion shown as December 2019. The CP5 Enhancements Delivery Plan was not updated until March 2016 to show the Hendy changes; at that time the Oxford Road and Piccadilly schemes (now designated "Package C") were still included but with the milestones changed to "Subject to TWAO".

It is not credible that, in the short time available between Hendy publication and contract signature, the Arriva bid was reworked. It can be deduced that the redacted Infrastructure Assumptions Document (IAD) included Oxford Road and Piccadilly completion by December 2019, evidenced by the lack of change between the ITT and franchise agreement TSRs.

In December 2016, Northern and Porterbrook announced the conversion of 8 of Northern's Class 319 EMUs to Class 769 bi-modes, with the support of the Rail North Partnership (i.e. DfT). These were to be used on services from Wigan to Stalybridge and Alderley Edge. From this it can be deduced that the IAD included Lostock to Wigan and Victoria to Stalybridge electrification by December 2017, to enable Northern to use the 319s included in the original fleet plan. The 769s are still not in service, forcing Northern to use DMUs on these routes and causing the DMU fleet to be overstretched.

In July 2017 DfT announced cancellation of the project to electrify the Windermere branch. In December 2018 Northern ordered an additional three Class 195 DMUs to operate Windermere services. From this it can be deduced that the IAD included Windermere electrification, which would have enabled Northern to use Class 331 EMUs per its original fleet plan.

 

[Killingworth]

So, the public have been duped by over optimistic political announcements, backed up by Network Rail's enthusiasm to take on more than they could reasonably deliver. The TOCs appear to have gone along with this to promise levels of services it's unreasonable to expect.

Having seen so many press announcements of forthcoming jam tomorrow, often the same jam announced at frequent intervals, it's no longer possible to believe anything until it's delivered.

I attended 3 rounds of public consultation about the Hope Valley Capacity Improvement Scheme. Locally we know the original plans for that were being prepared in the days of Railtrack, and Network Rail were talking to the Sheffield Planning Department about new station facilties at Dore in 2005.

Memory says that at all 3 consultations we were assured finance was in place for completion in 2018. Sadly it had to go to a public inquiry due to some relatively minor objections to the Bamford loop. Suggestions to split the project in two and do the Dore section first were rejected by Network Rail - it's all or nothing. And it's nothing we've got until at least 2023!

 

[Swimbar]

This morning Northern have cancelled two Leeds -York via Harrogate trains in succession, which leaves a 2 hour gap in service frequency and passengers stranded who cant get to work.
According to Northern this is 'minor disruption'
No it's not 'its major disruption' to anybody but Northern.
They don't ever accept they have a problem.

 

[TUC]

This morning Northern have cancelled two Leeds -York via Harrogate trains in succession, which leaves a 2 hour gap in service frequency and passengers stranded who cant get to work.
According to Northern this is 'minor disruption'
No it's not 'its major disruption' to anybody but Northern.
They don't ever accept they have a problem.

Can I reassure Northern Rail that the public doesn't have the slightest bit of sympathy for your position.

 

[Class195]

I'm currently on a BDI - BPN service which is a two carriage 144 and has left people behind at almost every station we've stopped at.

Northern Rail have really outdone themselves this morning.

Embarrassing and shocking.

 

[Bovverboy]

I'm currently on a BDI - BPN service which is a two carriage 144 and has left people behind at almost every station we've stopped at.

Northern Rail have really outdone themselves this morning.

Embarrassing and shocking.

What time departure, and what's the usual formation?

 

[scrapy]

I'm currently on a BDI - BPN service which is a two carriage 144 and has left people behind at almost every station we've stopped at.

Northern Rail have really outdone themselves this morning.

Embarrassing and shocking.

It is likely that there was no other unit available possibly due to a short notice failure. A 2 car 144 is surely better than a cancellation, particularly on an off peak service that would probably usually cope as a 2 car 158.