MEN article-"Northern Rail is crumbling from the inside out and things are only going to get worse"

[Djgr]

Current punctuality figure for today (On Time or less than 10 minutes late) is 90.7%, full cancellations 4.0%. The same punctuality metric was also around 90% on Monday and Tuesday this week. Hardly seems like a meltdown although they obviously need to be better resourced (staff and units) and to sort out the Sunday issue.

Hmmm... 90.7% and 4% from unknown internal source (Northern spindoctors?!) versus 68.8% and 8.9% on http://trains.im/ppmhistorical/NT ? Are we playing with the definitions here? Shouldn't we be using less than five minutes late and a broader definition of cancellations?

What I can see from the trains.im figures is that historically up to 2018 Northern's very late/cancellations figures were between 1 and 2%. For December 2019 they are tracking at 8%, which looks like the worst month in its history?

Is meltdown not an appropriate expression to use here?

 

[Horizon22]

Hmmm... 90.7% and 4% from unknown internal source (Northern spindoctors?!) versus 68.8% and 8.9% on http://trains.im/ppmhistorical/NT ? Are we playing with the definitions here? Shouldn't we be using less than five minutes late and a broader definition of cancellations?

If the latter figures are actually correct-would you consider that to be a meltdown? (especially given that this probably masks a particularly poor performance in the North West conurbations) or just a little bit of a smoulder?

trains.im does seem to suggest it is 5 OR 10 depending on the type of operator (LNER would be 10, GTR 5 for instance), and therefore I think they should take that into account.

Trains are classed as 'on-time' if less than 5 minutes late at their final destination (less than 10 minutes if long distance)

Northern has a mash of both long-distance & commuter though so not sure it works out. I honestly can't see how it can be 90% though...

 

[Clip]

You do realise that back in the bad old days of BR, every loco or unit could couple and be used to rescue in the event of a failure.

Is this true?

 

[Sleeperwaking]

Yes - http://trains.im/ppm/ Seems to suggest 68% though...

Ooooh, if you go on to the Historic data tab you can filter by route. Looks like the South & East Yorkshire Local (40.3 On Time / 44.4 Amber Late / 15.3 Very Late or Canx) and Lancashire and Cumbria Inter Urban (58.6 / 27.3 / 14.1) and South & East Yorkshire Inter Urban (61.1 / 27.8 / 11.1) are the worst performers today. The Lancashire & Cumbria Inter Urban looks like it's been consistently dreadful, no wonder I keep seeing Tim Farron going on about it.

 

[3270]

Now 90.9% up to 10 late, 78.2% up to 5 late on arrival at destination. Not a Northern spin doctor, just trying to inject some actual data into the discussion. Northern has a lot of services away from Manchester that generally run well and go unnoticed. e.g. from Newcastle to Carlisle the latest arrival in Carlisle so far today was 3 minutes late with most trains arriving early. Only 1 train from Darlington to Saltburn has arrived more than 5 minutes late so far today. Skipton to Leeds has just 3 out of 35 trains arriving Leeds more than 10 late so far today. Etc. That's where the 90% comes from. However I fully agree that Manchester needs sorting out.

 

[Andyh82]

The problem with articles like the MEN one are that whilst they do call out bad examples, no-one involved with it seems to want or be willing to dive into the reasons why these things are going wrong. Its one thing for a group of fed up passengers stood on the end of a platform holding some banners slagging off Northern, but the press need to go further, as indeed do politicians. If these problems were totally isolated to Northern, then yes the crux of the problem would almost certainly lie there. But issues with timetable meltdowns, crew shortages, problems with new / cascaded stock, seats et al repeat ad nauseum right across the country. So by now it should become obvious, even to a local newspaper just trying to generate some click-bait based revenue, that the problem lies much deeper.

Surely you know how it works with passengers, the media, politicians and certain high profile metro mayors.

Everything that goes wrong with the rail network across the North is solely Northern’s fault, and all these problems would instantly disappear if the franchise was taken off Arriva and/or nationalised

I wonder if Arriva are best out of it, and let Burnham et al run it for a bit.

 

[Bantamzen]

Surely you know how it works with passengers, the media, politicians and certain high profile metro mayors.

Everything that goes wrong with the rail network across the North is solely Northern’s fault, and all these problems would instantly disappear if the franchise was taken off Arriva and/or nationalised

I wonder if Arriva are best out of it, and let Burnham et al run it for a bit.

Well its an option, I mean a franchise run by a politician, what could go wrong...??

 

[td97]

Both the internal source and trains.im will use Network Rail data feeds.
The internal source is counting on-time as <10 minutes.
trains.im uses <5 minutes, which applies to all Northern services (i.e. no difference for commuter/regional services).
It's justifiable that the 20% discrepancy is services arriving between 5-10 minutes late.
Furthermore trains.im doesn't distinguish between full cancellations and 30 minute+ delays (all categorised together in the 'red' zone).

This is another reason why TPE is in a bigger mess than Northern (as their on-time figure is defined as within 10 minutes).

The newspapers which spin the figures use the % of services right time or early, which is why they report (e.g.) 40% trains arrive on time, when the PPM 'green' figure is closer to 70%

 

[Horizon22]

The newspapers which spin the figures use the % of services right time or early, which is why they report (e.g.) 40% trains arrive on time, when the PPM 'green' figure is closer to 70%

To be fair, railway performance teams are also moving away from PPM to RT - at least on commuter railways.

 

[Djgr]

Now 90.9% up to 10 late, 78.2% up to 5 late on arrival at destination. Not a Northern spin doctor, just trying to inject some actual data into the discussion. Northern has a lot of services away from Manchester that generally run well and go unnoticed. e.g. from Newcastle to Carlisle the latest arrival in Carlisle so far today was 3 minutes late with most trains arriving early. Only 1 train from Darlington to Saltburn has arrived more than 5 minutes late so far today. Skipton to Leeds has just 3 out of 35 trains arriving Leeds more than 10 late so far today. Etc. That's where the 90% comes from. However I fully agree that Manchester needs sorting out.

Which set of data are you getting your 90.9% from? I can't see where this figure comes from. Whichever way I cut the data it comes out a lot lower.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Surely you know how it works with passengers, the media, politicians and certain high profile metro mayors.

Everything that goes wrong with the rail network across the North is solely Northern’s fault, and all these problems would instantly disappear if the franchise was taken off Arriva and/or nationalised

I wonder if Arriva are best out of it, and let Burnham et al run it for a bit.

The only way to fix it in the short term is to wield the axe and prune the service back to what they can reliably run, but max out train lengths and simplify diagrams.

Whoever is brave enough to do this should run it.

 

[js1000]

The rolling stock criticism seems like a disgruntled employee whining too. Of course it's going to take a while to get train crew and maintenance staff up to speed, this has been the case with new trains forever, of course people aren't going to know the common faults and quick fixes immediately, and how important is it for EMUs and DMUs to be able to couple to eachother? Would it be criticised as a waste of money if it becomes a feature which is paid for and barely (if ever) used?

I'm sure there are problems at Northern, I'm not someone who uses them a lot but teething problems with new trains is a temporary problem.

I think the disgruntled Northern employee in the article is probably not alone.

From conductors who "detest" the new trains (admittedly they'll be teething problems). Dispatchers swearing on the platforms in frustration when a train service was inexplicably cancelled at short notice. Ticket office staff openly stating that the new ticket machine interface "is indeed... crap". As a disgruntled passenger it seems frustrated is shared among the staff.

 

[js1000]

Now 90.9% up to 10 late, 78.2% up to 5 late on arrival at destination. Not a Northern spin doctor, just trying to inject some actual data into the discussion. Northern has a lot of services away from Manchester that generally run well and go unnoticed. e.g. from Newcastle to Carlisle the latest arrival in Carlisle so far today was 3 minutes late with most trains arriving early. Only 1 train from Darlington to Saltburn has arrived more than 5 minutes late so far today. Skipton to Leeds has just 3 out of 35 trains arriving Leeds more than 10 late so far today. Etc. That's where the 90% comes from. However I fully agree that Manchester needs sorting out.

In my experience, it tends to the same Northern routes that fall apart and leave trains and staff out of position. The unreliable Blackpool to Manchester Airport and Crewe to Liverpool services are truly woeful and should not be inflicted upon fare-going passengers. These services go through the Manchester bottleneck so probably not a surprise.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In my experience, it tends to the same Northern routes that fall apart and leave trains and staff out of position

And then (just like LNR) that knocks on to the whole network, or at least the whole west side.

They need to look at what Southern have done on many of their routes. Simplify the network. Max out train lengths all day, LU style, with no splitting or joining and the same length all day on all trains. Dedicate units and crews to specific routes. And if that means pruning frequencies a bit, do it. It'll be reliable then.

 

[C J Snarzell]

As some one has kindly pointed out - there are flawes in many organisations.

Coming from a policing background I could compile my own portfolio on the failings in the British police service where the people we serve are constantly being let down because the powers that be have streamlined what is a priority and what is not. If you a victim of a crime, the chances are that your local force will not send an officer - a civilian office worker will contact you, record the crime over the telephone and then decide if it's worth investigating (chances are it's filed at source).

Policing is steered more towards issues of mental health these days because yet again other organisations like social services and mental health services are so swamped and overwhelmed with limited resources so the police are basically covering a shortfall to plug their gap.

Again many public organisations like the fire, ambulance, hospitals, local GPs and dentists are at breaking point.

Going back to the subject matter in hand, Northern are a massive organisation and having being a member of the rail industry for a short time I have met some very hard working people who stretch themselves everyday to serve the customer. Again, the previous organisations I mentioned are made up of many people who everyday, work tirelessly to do their jobs but for very little thanks in return.

Unfortunately, we live in a world where people don't like being inconvenienced from getting A to B and as a country, its fair to say that we are 'moaners'!

What I would like to say is that our road systems are massively congested. If someone is pissed off because of being delayed on a rail platform to get from Manchester to Liverpool then I suggest driving down the M62, either late morning or early afternoon, which is far worse in comparison!!!!

Finally, I have a genuine dislike for the Manchester Evening News who like most newspapers make money out of publishing negativity. No one is interested if Northern suddenly become the UKs most efficient TOC because it wouldn't sell tomorrow's wrapping for the chippy tea!!!

What I would like to know is why is there no reference in this article to the Transport for Greater Manchester (TfGM)? They are investing millions in providing improved services across Greater Manchester over the next ten years which is focused on reaching a goal of at least 50% of daily commuters using cycling or public services by 2030. Surely Northern cannot take all the blame for all these issues on their own?

CJ

 

[Bletchleyite]

Unfortunately, we live in a world where people don't like being inconvenienced from getting A to B and as a country, its fair to say that we are 'moaners'!

And nor should they be so inconvenienced. There is absolutely no reason why Northern could not operate reliably - it needs simply to design a timetable that is designed for that on the infrastructure it has, not obsessing over direct trains from everywhere to everywhere and about squeezing the last crew for the last 2-car DMU service out of the diagrams.

Simplify, simplify, simplify.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

Unfortunately, we live in a world where people don't like being inconvenienced from getting A to B and as a country, its fair to say that we are 'moaners'!

And what's wrong with that? If the timetable says that my train is due to leave A at, say, 0700 and get to B at 0800 then that's exactly what I expect to happen. Trains in other countries run to the exact advertised timetable; if those in the UK don't then passengers have every right to moan!

A timetable should not be what the TOC hopes to run, it should be what the TOC actually will run.

 

[Dr Hoo]

And nor should they be so inconvenienced. There is absolutely no reason why Northern could not operate reliably - it needs simply to design a timetable that is designed for that on the infrastructure it has, not obsessing over direct trains from everywhere to everywhere and about squeezing the last crew for the last 2-car DMU service out of the diagrams.

Simplify, simplify, simplify.

But no franchised TOC has much discretion in what it has to operate. Basically they have to bid for everything that the DfT and TfN have specified. Might this be the ‘reason’ that Northern doesn’t slash a large slice of its services?

 

[underbank]

There is absolutely no reason why Northern could not operate reliably - it needs simply to design a timetable that is designed for that on the infrastructure it has, not obsessing over direct trains from everywhere to everywhere.

Simplify, simplify, simplify.

Have to agree. This obsession with long distance direct trains is absolutely ruining the Northern services given the other problems such as staff shortages, new trains, electrification, staff training, etc.

After the May 18 fiasco, and in the full knowledge that new trains, electrification, etc was well behind schedule, they should have simplified and gone back to local shuttles to hubs. Take the Windermere line - a Pacer could happily run up and down that line day in day out. But instead we have an unreliable service (which has to be diesel) that often gets trapped in the Manchester hold-ups. Just how many people actually travel all the way from Windermere to Man Airport to justify the service? How many people travel from Barrow to Manchester - would they not prefer a more reliable service with a shuttle to Lancaster or Preston and then a change for onward travel? Same with the Morecambe line - an ideal line for a Pacer shuttle between Heysham and Lancaster all day. Why make it so complicated and unreliable for probably a relative small number of people needing the full line distance?

 

[Leo1961]

Is this true?

Broadly speaking yes, but with many exceptions due to "unique circumstances".

There is a decent explanation on Wikipedia if you wish to investigate further

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_coupling

 

[SteveM70]

Not a Northern spin doctor, just trying to inject some actual data into the discussion

200+ journeys this year, 14% on time. That’s my actual data. It’s horrific, and getting worse not better

 

[Bletchleyite]

But no franchised TOC has much discretion in what it has to operate. Basically they have to bid for everything that the DfT and TfN have specified. Might this be the ‘reason’ that Northern doesn’t slash a large slice of its services?

It might get penalised, but it could institute an emergency timetable pending staff recruitment etc, surely? If the financial structure of the franchise penalises that over operating the full timetable with chunks of it missing, then that really is broken.

 

[507021]

I thought Northern Rail was the last franchise operator?

 

[Llama]

You'd be forgiven for thinking that, but I've heard plenty of auto announcements on trains recently claiming to be the "Northern Rail service to..."

 

[Lemmy99uk]

How many people travel from Barrow to Manchester -

A surprisingly large number in my experience.

 

[Andyh82]

And nor should they be so inconvenienced. There is absolutely no reason why Northern could not operate reliably - it needs simply to design a timetable that is designed for that on the infrastructure it has, not obsessing over direct trains from everywhere to everywhere and about squeezing the last crew for the last 2-car DMU service out of the diagrams.

Simplify, simplify, simplify.

Maybe just go back to the 2016 timetable (in terms of Monday to Saturday daytimes) for both Northern and TPE and start again.

Nothing should maybe run across Manchester Victoria or Leeds

Probably might be a good idea to slim down the franchise as well as it’s obviously too big. Either separate it back into two halves, or not as drastic, maybe separate the almost distinct North East and Cumbria part into a separate franchise.

 

[thejuggler]

I think the disgruntled Northern employee in the article is probably not alone.

From conductors who "detest" the new trains (admittedly they'll be teething problems). Dispatchers swearing on the platforms in frustration when a train service was inexplicably cancelled at short notice. Ticket office staff openly stating that the new ticket machine interface "is indeed... crap". As a disgruntled passenger it seems frustrated is shared among the staff.

The poor office morale does eventually each the 'shopfloor'. A friend was caught up in the delays at Leeds station last weekend which meant no services at around 9pm. He was calling his wife and whilst doing so saw a Northern employee and ran over to ask if he had any info on the delays. He was threatened with arrest for 'getting too close to him'!

 

[paul1609]

I had a rare trip to Accrington (Stanley) on Northern on Saturday. Was surprised at the number of old trains still operating.
Apparently Southern Taxpayers have invested Billions in new trains to stop the Northerners whinging. Unfortunately they have proved too complicated for the Northern Monkeys to operate or maintain (no racialist slur) so have been left in their garages
Apparently they are better at playing football than those of us from the South though.

 

[Killingworth]

I had a rare trip to Accrington (Stanley) on Northern on Saturday. Was surprised at the number of old trains still operating.
Apparently Southern Taxpayers have invested Billions in new trains to stop the Northerners whinging. Unfortunately they have proved too complicated for the Northern Monkeys to operate or maintain (no racialist slur) so have been left in their garages
Apparently they are better at playing football than those of us from the South though.

However, down in the South they have a fleet of brand new electric trains sitting in sidings because all the billions invested in the Crossrail project has yet to deliver enough track and facilities to let them all run. And my Northern taxes went towards that.

It's dire all round.

 

[sheff1]

Unfortunately, we live in a world where people don't like being inconvenienced from getting A to B and as a country, its fair to say that we are 'moaners'!

What I would like to say is that our road systems are massively congested. If someone is pissed off because of being delayed on a rail platform to get from Manchester to Liverpool then I suggest driving down the M62, either late morning or early afternoon, which is far worse in comparison!!!!

A person who drives down the M62 is not doing so as per a published timetable. Northern (and others) publish a timetable stating they will convey someone from A to B at a specific time which, in reality, they have absolutely no hope of fulfilling on regular basis, if at all. Yet people who justifibaly complain about being misled are moaners ?