More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[stuu]

I understand that there is brand new fleet of Spanish trains up for grabs for a pittance. Will they fit thru HS2 tunnels?
Remember it's all about capacity not speed!

They are metre gauge. Don't give them ideas

 

[fishwomp]

The rail journey between Nottingham and Birmingham is quite slow via Derby (1 hour 10 mins to 1 hour 26mins this morning) vs driving via the A453 - M1 - M42, (assuming traffic isn’t too bad) A direct Nottingham to Birmingham via HS2 East would be much quicker at about 30 mins from the IRP)

But 10 minutes of that potential 40 mins reduction could be had by going via Castle Donnington already. If the whole 40 minutes saving is worth spending £Xbn on, why is no-one spending £X/4 bn on getting 1/4 of the benefit? Could it be that the demand isn't high enough?

 

[zwk500]

But 10 minutes of that potential 40 mins reduction could be had by going via Castle Donnington already. If the whole 40 minutes saving is worth spending £Xbn on, why is no-one spending £X/4 bn on getting 1/4 of the benefit? Could it be that the demand isn't high enough?

It could be that going via Castle Donington ends up conflicting with freight shunting into EM Gateway, and that the path pops out at Sheet Stores Jn in a bad place (conflicts not parallel).

 

[JonathanH]

It could be that going via Castle Donington ends up conflicting with freight shunting into EM Gateway, and that the path pops out at Sheet Stores Jn in a bad place (conflicts not parallel).

Isn't it also that the additional traffic gained between Nottingham and Birmingham by going via Castle Donington isn't enough to make up for the loss of Derby traffic from both Birmingham and Nottingham and the limited number of paths both through Trent and into Birmingham preventing separate trains?

 

[zwk500]

Isn't it also that the additional traffic gained between Nottingham and Birmingham by going via Castle Donington isn't enough to make up for the loss of Derby traffic from both Birmingham and Nottingham and the limited number of paths both through Trent and into Birmingham preventing separate trains?

Probably that's part of it. But certainly I wouldn't want a regular passenger service via Castle Don. with the amount of shunting that goes on there. Also introducing additional conflicting moves at both junctions doesn't help the limited paths situations.
Certainly Derby was valuable enough for the reversals to be a very clear part of the new setup when they rebuilt the station around 5 years ago.

 

[fishwomp]

Probably that's part of it. But certainly I wouldn't want a regular passenger service via Castle Don. with the amount of shunting that goes on there. Also introducing additional conflicting moves at both junctions doesn't help the limited paths situations.
Certainly Derby was valuable enough for the reversals to be a very clear part of the new setup when they rebuilt the station around 5 years ago.

OK, so why don't we put in a loop there, for a few £10Millions, and save the £Billions?

 

[JonathanH]

OK, so why don't we put in a loop there, for a few £10Millions, and save the £Billions?

Because we would also need to provide more capacity at New Street, Proof House, Trent and Nottingham?

How much extra traffic does Birmingham to Nottingham via Castle Donington generate?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Rumours of HS2 being 400% over budget are arrant nonsense.
You need to read the DfT 6-monthly report to parliament, last one for October 22.
The approved sections (Euston-Crewe) are at £50 billion.
Crewe-Manchester is going through parliament and hasn't got a budget yet.
Everything else is speculation.
The railway contracts (ie track, signalling, OHLE) are about to be awarded. That will pretty much fix the costs for phases 1 and 2a.
There are undoubtedly cost pressures from inflation, and maybe some spec issues, but it is not "out of control".
The media just want their "Crossrail moment" with HS2 management fired for incompetence.

 

[flitwickbeds]

I would hope that there is through ticketing from HS2 to Eurostar then, so that one ticket would cover Curzon Street to Gare Du Nord, with CIV protection and automatic booking onto the next train if the first one was delayed.

Is there through ticking from anywhere to Eurostar currently? Could I, for example, purchase a ticket from Flitwick to Paris and if Thameslink is up the duff, get on a later Eurostar than planned with no extra charge/hassle?

 

[zwk500]

Is there through ticking from anywhere to Eurostar currently? Could I, for example, purchase a ticket from Flitwick to Paris and if Thameslink is up the duff, get on a later Eurostar than planned with no extra charge/hassle?

Even without through tickets, if you have a reasonable itinerary Eurostar will honour the ticket by putting you on the next available train.

 

[flitwickbeds]

Even without through tickets, if you have a reasonable itinerary Eurostar will honour the ticket by putting you on the next available train.

Thanks. How is a "reasonable itinerary" defined/determined? It appears I cannot get an itinerary between Flitwick and Paris, so what's to stop me rocking up with a pre-booked Eurostar ticket and a valid-all-trains off peak single purchased the day before and claiming that I definitely left enough time to make the connection?

 

[zwk500]

Thanks. How is a "reasonable itinerary" defined/determined? It appears I cannot get an itinerary between Flitwick and Paris, so what's to stop me rocking up with a pre-booked Eurostar ticket and a valid-all-trains off peak single purchased the day before and claiming that I definitely left enough time to make the connection?

On BR Fares it has the minimum interchange time for London St Pancras international as 35 minutes, and that you need 1 minute to walk there from London St Pancras (about right from the Thameslink platforms). I'd personally leave a little longer as ticket gates close 30 minutes prior to departure.
You'd also need to demonstrate the train you intended to catch was actually delayed, as if it's your fault you missed the train they may not carry you on a later train without transferring the ticket.

You will have to look around for journey planners, but rail europe offer it: https://www.raileurope.com/en/journey/flitwick-paris-nord-fs2ii7

 

[Roast Veg]

On BR Fares it has the minimum interchange time for London St Pancras international as 35 minutes, and that you need 1 minute to walk there from London St Pancras (about right from the Thameslink platforms). I'd personally leave a little longer as ticket gates close 30 minutes prior to departure.
You'd also need to demonstrate the train you intended to catch was actually delayed, as if it's your fault you missed the train they may not carry you on a later train without transferring the ticket.

You will have to look around for journey planners, but rail europe offer it: https://www.raileurope.com/en/journey/flitwick-paris-nord-fs2ii7

You can also buy a ticket with formal CIV protection from a staffed ticket office after purchase of your E* ticket, which you will need to bring with you.

 

[eldomtom2]

Alon Levy of the Pedestrian Observations blog is claiming that the existing sixteen platforms at Euston provide enough capacity for both HS2 and conventional services. Is there any truth in this, or are they speaking confidently on a topic they know nothing about? Levy is the sort of person associated with the "private-developers-must-never-be-hindered" YIMBY crowd, so I'm disinclined to believe them.

 

[zwk500]

Alon Levy of the Pedestrian Observations blog is claiming that the existing sixteen platforms at Euston provide enough capacity for both HS2 and conventional services. Is there any truth in this, or are they speaking confidently on a topic they know nothing about? Levy is the sort of person associated with the "private-developers-must-never-be-hindered" YIMBY crowd, so I'm disinclined to believe them.

No truth at all. 16 platforms are required for the conventional services alone and even then it's tight. Remember Euston has already gone from 18 down to 16 for HS2 works.

 

[philosopher]

Alon Levy of the Pedestrian Observations blog is claiming that the existing sixteen platforms at Euston provide enough capacity for both HS2 and conventional services. Is there any truth in this, or are they speaking confidently on a topic they know nothing about? Levy is the sort of person associated with the "private-developers-must-never-be-hindered" YIMBY crowd, so I'm disinclined to believe them.

The issue I see with having as few as possible platforms is that it provides no resilience for delays. It may work in Japan which has a famously punctual train service, but with HS2 I am not so sure, particularly as most HS2 services will use the classic network for part of their journey where they are greater risk of picking up delays.

When I was commuting from London Waterloo a few years ago on the main suburban lines, they were trying to turn around 18 trains during the peaks on four platforms. What this meant is that if trains arrived at Waterloo a few minutes late they were inevitably going to depart Waterloo late as there was not enough platform capacity to provide some leeway between the inbound and outbound services for that train. Have too few HS2 platforms at Euston and you risk the same thing for HS2.

 

[Meerkat]

The issue I see with having as few as possible platforms is that it provides no resilience for delays. It may work in Japan which has a famously punctual train service, but with HS2 I am not so sure, particularly as most HS2 services will use the classic network for part of their journey where they are greater risk of picking up delays.

When I was commuting from London Waterloo a few years ago on the main suburban lines, they were trying to turn around 18 trains during the peaks on four platforms. What this meant is that if trains arrived at Waterloo a few minutes late they were inevitably going to depart Waterloo late as there was not enough platform capacity to provide some leeway between the inbound and outbound services for that train. Have too few HS2 platforms at Euston and you risk the same thing for HS2.

Will OOC have the capacity to turn individual trains short if Euston is full due to disruption?
Can that even work without sidings to hide units in around OOC, unless the incoming train is late enough to go back out as it’s return working? Otherwise you are sending it back on another service, getting units/staff out of place and leaving it’s passengers at Euston.

 

[zwk500]

Will OOC have the capacity to turn individual trains short if Euston is full due to disruption?
Can that even work without sidings to hide units in around OOC, unless the incoming train is late enough to go back out as it’s return working? Otherwise you are sending it back on another service, getting units/staff out of place and leaving it’s passengers at Euston.

OOC will have 6 platforms, So you could turn trains round without blocking the line. It may need stepping up or similar but that happens today anyway. I presume given that OOC is planned to the terminus for a while that at least 4 platforms will have connections to both lines, or even all 6.

 

[MarkyT]

Will OOC have the capacity to turn individual trains short if Euston is full due to disruption?
Can that even work without sidings to hide units in around OOC, unless the incoming train is late enough to go back out as it’s return working? Otherwise you are sending it back on another service, getting units/staff out of place and leaving it’s passengers at Euston.

I think the 6-platform layout at OOC will probably have the capacity to short-turn a small number of late runners where necessary, even if they sit in a platform for 30+ minutes awaiting their booked return path. A pair of platforms in each direction, used alternately, (total 4) should suffice to accommodate the normal calls of all trains, given a re-occupation time in excess of 6 minutes for each in the originally planned 18tph service. The extra pair can then be used for perturbation. The technical headway through the tunnels to Euston will no doubt be higher than the 18tph service spec so unless an out-of-course train is extremely late it will probably be able to run between other paths into Euston and have an expedited turnback there to regain its diagram.

 

[The Planner]

Alon Levy of the Pedestrian Observations blog is claiming that the existing sixteen platforms at Euston provide enough capacity for both HS2 and conventional services. Is there any truth in this, or are they speaking confidently on a topic they know nothing about? Levy is the sort of person associated with the "private-developers-must-never-be-hindered" YIMBY crowd, so I'm disinclined to believe them.

Absolute equine excrement.

 

[HSTEd]

No truth at all. 16 platforms are required for the conventional services alone and even then it's tight. Remember Euston has already gone from 18 down to 16 for HS2 works.

The reality is that 18tph can be run with as few as 4 platforms. As Fenchurch Street has done for many years (peak service of 20tph).

It wouldn't be a rexaled turnaround of the time that conventional intercity services are used to, but it is clear that termini can be, and are, far more intensively operated.

You might want ATO but it is certainly doable. Given that a large portion of the passengers on the line will be on journeys of about an hour or less (Birmingham/Manchester etc) then I think the conventional intercity model is unnecessarily generous.

 

[Trainbike46]

The reality is that 18tph can be run with as few as 4 platforms. As Fenchurch Street has done for many years (peak service of 20tph).

It wouldn't be a rexaled turnaround of the time that conventional intercity services are used to, but it is clear that termini can be, and are, far more intensively operated.

You might want ATO but it is certainly doable. Given that a large portion of the passengers on the line will be on journeys of about an hour or less (Birmingham/Manchester etc) then I think the conventional intercity model is unnecessarily generous.

While possible, it does mean there is basically no buffer for delays - and while that might work for the lelatively simple network out of Fenchurch street, it would likely be rather problematic for a much more complex network like HS2, which has way more opportunities for importing delays from different sources

 

[zwk500]

The reality is that 18tph can be run with as few as 4 platforms. As Fenchurch Street has done for many years (peak service of 20tph).

It wouldn't be a rexaled turnaround of the time that conventional intercity services are used to, but it is clear that termini can be, and are, far more intensively operated.

You might want ATO but it is certainly doable. Given that a large portion of the passengers on the line will be on journeys of about an hour or less (Birmingham/Manchester etc) then I think the conventional intercity model is unnecessarily generous.

20tph in 4 platforms is 5tph/platform, or a train every 12 minutes. Allowing a 3 minute reoccupation gives a maximum turnround of 9 minutes (some will need to be less for conflicting moves alignment).

The High Speed station may be able to take the same service with less platforms, but the conventional station does have the long journeys that require long turnrounds and numerous conflicting moves at the throat the restrict the overall throughput of trains.

 

[Rail Ranger]

The main reason that the existing Euston couldn't cope with HS2 departures is that the platforms are not long enough for a 400m train.

 

[The Planner]

The reality is that 18tph can be run with as few as 4 platforms. As Fenchurch Street has done for many years (peak service of 20tph).

It wouldn't be a rexaled turnaround of the time that conventional intercity services are used to, but it is clear that termini can be, and are, far more intensively operated.

You might want ATO but it is certainly doable. Given that a large portion of the passengers on the line will be on journeys of about an hour or less (Birmingham/Manchester etc) then I think the conventional intercity model is unnecessarily generous.

And it would perform like a chocolate tea pot.

 

[Hadders]

The reality is that 18tph can be run with as few as 4 platforms. As Fenchurch Street has done for many years (peak service of 20tph).

It wouldn't be a rexaled turnaround of the time that conventional intercity services are used to, but it is clear that termini can be, and are, far more intensively operated.

You might want ATO but it is certainly doable. Given that a large portion of the passengers on the line will be on journeys of about an hour or less (Birmingham/Manchester etc) then I think the conventional intercity model is unnecessarily generous.

But the trains will run through to places as far as Glasgow, much of the mileage being on conventional track so the potential for delays to be imported is huge.

 

[py_megapixel]

The south has the oldest rolling stock in the country (313s)

There are only 15 of them though

I must've missed all the new trains introduced in the north over the last few years.

The SWR class 701 alone order is fewer carriages than the sum of all the new stock introduced by Northern and TPE, and shortly to be introduced by Merseyrail, since the most recent franchise awards. This is before you include Thameslink, Crossrail, London Overground, GWR, Greater Anglia, LNR, the Intercity Express Programme; and soon c2c, the Piccadilly Line and the DLR (have I missed anyone?) in the vast count of new stock introduced in London over a similar period.

I do agree that HS2 should be built in full but as far as London is concerned it is the goose that lays the golden egg for the UK. Much more tax raised in London than anywhere else. London doesn't compete with the likes of Birmingham, Newcastle, Edinburgh but with Paris, Berlin, New York etc.

If London is already so far ahead of anywhere else in the country, then why keep throwing money at it? Shouldn't be be investing elsewhere, trying to close the gap somewhat?

 

[Mikey C]

The SWR class 701 alone order is fewer carriages than the sum of all the new stock introduced by Northern and TPE, and shortly to be introduced by Merseyrail, since the most recent franchise awards. This is before you include Thameslink, Crossrail, London Overground, GWR, Greater Anglia, LNR, the Intercity Express Programme; and soon c2c, the Piccadilly Line and the DLR (have I missed anyone?) in the vast count of new stock introduced in London over a similar period.

I wasn't aware the Hitachi IEPs only served London, I must have imagined them running through Scotland, the North of England and the West Country. Similarly the Greater Anglia fleet is mainly for the benefit of the people of Greater Anglia, not London

 

[zwk500]

If London is already so far ahead of anywhere else in the country, then why keep throwing money at it? Shouldn't be be investing elsewhere, trying to close the gap somewhat?

It takes proportionally more money to close the gap though, because the return on any investment in London is much larger than it is in the next biggest city.

London is 9 times larger than the next biggest metropolitan area in the UK. It's economy is also comparably bigger. It would take decades of housebuilding to elevate Manchester or Birmingham to that level, as well as requiring approximately double the current land area of those cities.

No, unfortunately (and similarly to France with Paris and Spain with Madrid), London is going to remain the dominant economic centre of the UK for my lifetime (I'm in my 20s). We cannot afford not to invest in London at the same time as also needing to invest in the Scottish Central Belt, M62 corridor and West Mids conurbations. We have a lot of wasted time to catch up on.

 

[Meerkat]

I wasn't aware the Hitachi IEPs only served London, I must have imagined them running through Scotland, the North of England and the West Country. Similarly the Greater Anglia fleet is mainly for the benefit of the people of Greater Anglia, not London

No northerners or folk from the west use Thameslink, Crossrail etc either!