More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[zwk500]

Specifying the colours of internal fixtures and fittings is hardly new or costly though. What costs money is deviation from the standard design for things like doors, layouts etc.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Specifying the colours of internal fixtures and fittings is hardly new or costly though. What costs money is deviation from the standard design for things like doors, layouts etc.

I was, as mentioned, being slightly facetious.

What it also specifies is window positions/widths, for example. Some platforms allow that to vary fairly easily e.g. the CAF Civity where WMT specified a non standard window and door layout, but in other designs it's pretty much immutable because the structural strength is dependent on it. But yes, the spec is incredibly detailed - it's basically a DfT designed train. It's worth reading it, it's online somewhere.

 

[Mikey C]

Taking a simplistic scenario -

If a project was budgeted to cost £50bn at £5bn a year (in 2023 money) for 10 years, but the cost then went up by 20%, then sticking to that schedule would mean a cost of £6bn a year for 10 years (i.e. £60bn) at the same schedule.

If you don't have an extra £1bn a year to spend and can only spend £5bn a year, then you'll need 12 years at £5bn a year to complete, i.e. it'll take 2 years longer to complete, with no downgrade in spec.

Obviously the real world is more complicated like that, but I imagine that's the discussion happening.

 

[zwk500]

But yes, the spec is incredibly detailed - it's basically a DfT designed train. It's worth reading it, it's online somewhere.

Tbf I've read DfT specs before, and I've got no desire or need to see one again without being paid.

 

[DanNCL]

At this rate the royal opening will be by King George VII!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

A UK gauge version of the single deck AGV platform, the Siemens Velaro, the Hitachi AT400 or whatever the CAF one is would be absolutely fine. In essence you're just talking about doing the Eurostar TMST again but shorter and on a more modern platform, and that's little more than a TGV Reseau with a tummy tuck at platform level.

But Hitachi has won the HS2 contract, so it could be like IEP all over again, where the train produced was not at all like the one in the original ITT.
Hitachi has said its HS2 offering will be a "brand new train" instead of the anticipated Frecciarossa 1000 clone.
HS2 has given no hint that the design might be changed, but they must be getting serious prods from the bean-counters.
You might also expect Trenitalia to be having some influence, if they are allowed near the project.

 

[MarkyT]

But Hitachi has won the HS2 contract, so it could be like IEP all over again, where the train produced was not at all like the one in the original ITT.
Hitachi has said its HS2 offering will be a "brand new train" instead of the anticipated Frecciarossa 1000 clone.
HS2 has given no hint that the design might be changed, but they must be getting serious prods from the bean-counters.
You might also expect Trenitalia to be having some influence, if they are allowed near the project.

One of the big issues is that the design must be able to run over parts of the UK conventional network, so no 'off the shelf' standard model from the European mainland or Japan will fit. Technical equipment might be a largely standard configuration, but its all still got to be designed into the custom UK bodies. Japanese mini Shinkansen bodyshells are quite similar in dimensions to UK classic loading gauge, so might offer a starting point for development.

 

[fishwomp]

Do they not know how inflation works?

It'll never be cheaper than now to build it

Err, if they'd built this in 1184 they could've built it for 3 sheep and a turnip. The point is that 3 sheep and a turnip was probably a lot back then. Equally, £1 bought an awful lot in 1980 and nothing today.
It's not the price, but what the price is in the money at the time it's spent.

One problem with HS2's current spend profile is that it is exhausting the construction industry - creating demand for aggregates, cement, people, machines on a massive scale.

As there are finite capacities of production, that demand exceeds supply and therefore increases the cost until they align. Slowing down could actually reduce the cost for HS2 and for the rest of the construction industry.

 

[Geogregor]

As there are finite capacities of production, that demand exceeds supply and therefore increases the cost until they align. Slowing down could actually reduce the cost for HS2 and for the rest of the construction industry.

But the rest of construction industry is about to slow down, especially house building (due to rising cost of mortgages) There is no guarantee that construction industry will be more able to provide capacity for the HS2 construction in the future, especially if house building eventually rebounds. In fact if house building slows in the next few years it might be perfect time to push with as much HS2 construction as possible in that period.

Anyway, most of these articles about the HS2 timelines (which seem to surface every week or two nowadays) are probably pure speculations.

That construction will be delayed is almost guaranteed anyway, when did any major project stuck to the original timeline?

If I was cynical I would say that if those really are leaks from the HS2 (rather than commentators' speculations) they are doing it in purpose, so when inevitable delays have to be announced they can spin it that it is all planned due to "cost control"

 

[Bonemaster]

Do they not know how inflation works?

It'll never be cheaper than now to build it

The overspend is at 2019 prices, which is when the phase one budget was set. Therefore inflation is backed out.

It should always cost the same as at 2019 prices in real terms regardless of inflation. A large infrastructure project can not be simplified to the same logic as a domestic purchase.

 

[Richardr]

Taking a simplistic scenario -

If a project was budgeted to cost £50bn at £5bn a year (in 2023 money) for 10 years, but the cost then went up by 20%, then sticking to that schedule would mean a cost of £6bn a year for 10 years (i.e. £60bn) at the same schedule.

If you don't have an extra £1bn a year to spend and can only spend £5bn a year, then you'll need 12 years at £5bn a year to complete, i.e. it'll take 2 years longer to complete, with no downgrade in spec.

Obviously the real world is more complicated like that, but I imagine that's the discussion happening.

The total cost over the 12 years will increase in your example:

1. simple inflation (supposedly the cause of this now)
2. some costs continue at the same expense each year - e.g. project management but there re many more - so 12 years rather than 10 years of such costs is 20% more expensive
3. putting items on hold and then starting them up again means any external contracts involved need compensating for in the first place and are then potentially more costly to renegotiate a second time.

 

[LOL The Irony]

Japanese mini Shinkansen bodyshells are quite similar in dimensions to UK classic loading gauge, so might offer a starting point for development.

And (in the case of the E6 at least) capable of 320kph out of the box.

 

[Pete_uk]

DfT designing HS2 stock?

Hope they do a better job of it and the builders build it to a higher quality than the 800's

 

[LOL The Irony]

Hope they do a better job of it and the builders build it to a higher quality than the 800's

They won't. It's been awarded to hitachi Rail Italy, who you better know as Ansaldo Breda. The same people who built Manchester's old trams and wired all of them up differently.

 

[Trainbike46]

They won't. It's been awarded to hitachi Rail Italy, who you better know as Ansaldo Breda. The same people who built Manchester's old trams and wired all of them up differently.

I thought it was a consortium of Hitachi Newton Aycliffe and Bombardier (now Alstom)?

 

[Roast Veg]

I thought it was a consortium of Hitachi Newton Aycliffe and Bombardier (now Alstom)?

Correct, as far as manufacturing goes. The Zefiro design is a former Italian Bombardier (Adtranz) product that had to be divested to Hitachi Rail Italy (AnsaldoBreda) as a result of Alstom's acquisition of Bombardier.

I wouldn't worry about Hitachi Rail Italy's involvement anyway - since the Japanese takeover their output has been leagues better than the Fyra days.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

They won't. It's been awarded to hitachi Rail Italy, who you better know as Ansaldo Breda. The same people who built Manchester's old trams and wired all of them up differently.

Actually Hitachi Rail Europe (with main build at Newton Aycliffe) with Alstom as a subcontractor for bogies (at Crewe).
Many parts will come from Japan and Europe.
Hitachi can call on production in Japan and Italy, as they did for 80x.

 

[Jammy Dodger]

Labour have stated today that they would build HS2 in full (London to Manchester, plus Goldborne Link and eastern leg to Leeds).

They have also pledged support to a full, high-speed HS3/NPR.

At least someone is "committing" (if that's even a real thing in politics) to decent infrastructure (even if it should have been built 30+ years ago...)

Tories told to 'get on' with HS2 as Labour vows to build rail line in full

Shadow Transport Secretary Louise Haigh told the Tories to 'Get on with it, stop wasting taxpayers’ money as she renewed the party's promise to construct the track's eastern leg

www.mirror.co.uk

Tories told to 'get on' with HS2 as Labour vows to build high speed rail line in full​

Shadow Transport Secretary Louise Haigh told the Tories to 'Get on with it, stop wasting taxpayers’ money as she renewed the party's promise to construct the track's eastern leg
The Tories were urged to “get on” with HS2 today as Labour promised the railway would be built in full under Keir Starmer.

Shadow Transport Secretary Louise Haigh launched a furious attack on repeated claims the project will be further scaled back or delayed.


She said flip-flopping over the £106billion project - originally due to run from London to Manchester and Leeds via Birmingham - was unleashing fresh uncertainty across the North.

“Every week a new story is briefed about ministers getting cold feet and plans to slash it further still,” she told the Transport for the North conference in Newcastle.

“As anyone who has delivered major projects will tell you, short-sighted decisions and delays only add cost in the long-run, limit the business case and curtail the ambition of the North.

“I say to government ministers, ‘Get on with it, stop wasting taxpayers’ money and deliver what the North has been promised - and if you can’t or won’t, Labour will’.”
Ms Haigh confirmed Labour would build the 225mph line in full, including the eastern leg to Leeds.

The Conservatives initially pledged to spur would go ahead. But it was ditched as Rishi Sunak desperately tried to cut costs.


She also renewed a pledge to give the go ahead to the Northern Powerhouse Rail high speed scheme - also called HS3 - linking Newcastle, Leeds, Hull, Sheffield, Manchester and Liverpool and Manchester Airport.

“For Labour, investment in transport is fundamental to tackling the twin challenges the next government will seek to address - delivering the highest sustained growth in the G7, driven by good jobs and stronger productivity in every part of the country and accelerating towards net-zero.”

She added: “We know the North has huge ambition waiting to be unleashed.”

Backing renationalisation of the railways, the Labour frontbencher hit out at the “shocking state” of Britain’s public transport system and the “daily fiasco” of commuting on some routes.
“We know the current situation is unacceptable for too many people across the North, limiting our ambition and making us less than the sum of our parts,” said the Sheffield Heeley MP.

“We know that our second-rate infrastructure is costing us dear in lost jobs and economic growth.”

North Tyne Mayor Jamie Driscoll told the conference: “It’s a sad fact that our region had more rail routes in 1857 than we have today.


“Our trains are unreliable, our buses fragmented, our cities choked with traffic, our transport system in chaos - and it’s costing us a fortune.”

Transport for the North’s chief executive Martin Tugwell told guests to “be in no doubt that the gap between the North and the South remains”.

He warned: “We have £100billion extra in GVA (gross value added) if we can unlock the potential of the North, its residents and its businesses - and that means investment.”

 

[daodao]

Labour have stated today that they would build HS2 in full (London to Manchester, plus Goldborne Link and eastern leg to Leeds).

They have also pledged support to a full, high-speed HS3/NPR.

At least someone is "committing" (if that's even a real thing in politics)

Wait and see. If/when Starmer is elected PM, the pound is likely to take a nose dive and all bets are off as to what infrastructure projects a Labour government will actually be able to afford to deliver.

 

[najaB]

Wait and see. If/when Starmer is elected PM, the pound is likely to take a nose dive and all bets are off as to what infrastructure projects a Labour government will actually be able to afford to deliver.

Because he's clearly less well positioned to manage the economy than any of our last three PMs. Oh, wait...

Yes, the pound will probably dip initially, but no more so than it would with any change of government. I would be very surprised if that effect was long-lasting.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

This is encouraging as Labour shapes up for an election next year.
But reinstating the dropped lines won't be done quickly, and HS2 will have to get through the current cost explosion somehow.
Sticking, at least initially, to Tory spending limits might still see the project timescale elongated into the 2040s.
Labour often doesn't do well with priorities for big projects, with a huge demand for limited public spending.
I see Louise dropped in the "nationalisation" word, as if that was some kind of answer to rail's travails.

 

[D365]

This is encouraging as Labour shapes up for an election next year.
But reinstating the dropped lines won't be done quickly, and HS2 will have to get through the current cost explosion somehow.

At the risk of derailing this thread with politics, perhaps costs will have a chance to settle when a future government takes control of what currently seems like bi-annual project reviews.

 

[Norm_D_Ploom]

Because he's clearly less well positioned to manage the economy than any of our last three PMs. Oh, wait...

Yes, the pound will probably dip initially, but no more so than it would with any change of government. I would be very surprised if that effect was long-lasting.

Actually the one we have at the moment is probably uniquely qualified for the role if that's your criteria.

 

[najaB]

Actually the one we have at the moment is probably uniquely qualified for the role if that's your criteria.

Normally I would agree, given his background. But the fact that he refused to/was unable to stop the massive waste of money during the emergency phase of the Covid 19 pandemic blew that reputation out of the water, as far as I'm concerned. Not to mention his previous support for the most damaging economic policies of the Johnson government with respect to trade with our largest trading partner.

 

[Meerkat]

This is encouraging as Labour shapes up for an election next year.
But reinstating the dropped lines won't be done quickly, and HS2 will have to get through the current cost explosion somehow.
Sticking, at least initially, to Tory spending limits might still see the project timescale elongated into the 2040s.
Labour often doesn't do well with priorities for big projects, with a huge demand for limited public spending.
I see Louise dropped in the "nationalisation" word, as if that was some kind of answer to rail's travails.

Sounds like a very silly promise to me.
Much wiser to say they will review the cancellations with an eye to reinstating them. Why set themselves up to fail when they find the numbers are ridiculous and fulfilling this promise would be a nonsense?

 

[Mikey C]

Sounds like a very silly promise to me.
Much wiser to say they will review the cancellations with an eye to reinstating them. Why set themselves up to fail when they find the numbers are ridiculous and fulfilling this promise would be a nonsense?

It seems like sensible politics for Labour to promise to build it in full at the moment.

Of course if/when they get in power then it'll get more complicated, as they'll face the same financial challenges, if not worse, if they want to spend more on other public services as well.

 

[Meerkat]

It seems like sensible politics for Labour to promise to build it in full at the moment.

Of course if/when they get in power then it'll get more complicated, as they'll face the same financial challenges, if not worse, if they want to spend more on other public services as well.

Only if people believe it, otherwise you are better off making a credible commitment.
If the rumours about HS2 are true then it will be a commitment that will bite them on the campaign trail.

 

[Grumpy Git]

They can’t win.

Starmer gets accused of having ‘no policies’, then when they come out with one everyone still moans.

 

[Jack Hay]

It seems like sensible politics for Labour to promise to build it in full at the moment.

Of course if/when they get in power then it'll get more complicated, as they'll face the same financial challenges, if not worse, if they want to spend more on other public services as well.

That's the right way to look at it - it's politics. Labour want to get elected. Once elected, they'll have to find the money to build it and that's not going to be easy. They could cancel it then. Incidentally, this may not even be good politics. The general public isn't in favour of HS2 and thinks it's a waste of money, whatever northern politicians say.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The crunch time will be when Labour publishes its manifesto for the election.
Expect some carefully-crafted text to avoid precise commitments (like NPR reaching Bradford/Hull).