More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[Winthorpe]

Correct.

Even more correct. You cannot cut your way to growth.

The Treasury are utterly unfit to run the UK economy.

Treasury orthodoxy is a big part of the story. But not the only factor. There is no political consensus on these projects and that’s why it is stop-start.

We as electors determine the politics. It reflects the general attitudes of our country. In this case for the worse.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Build it as NPR, with the link to Crewe.
It needs enhancing anyway doesn’t it?

The business case would be even more appalling if "NPR" did not go south of Crewe.
Changing the name doesn't alter economics.

Crewe is coming up to renewal/upgrade at 40 years, but the urgency (and most of the business case) would vanish without HS2.
NR can't throw money at new infrastructure any more than HS2 can - they are inextricably linked, which is what the IRP concluded.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Mar 2023 ==


Edit:
It seems a Ministerial statement on HS2 has been made, in written form, to the great annoyance of the Commons.
I don't see it on any DfT web site or media though, although they have been briefed...

Edit 2:
Here's the Guardian version.

HS2 to be delayed by two more years due to soaring costs

Birmingham to Crewe stretch put on hold and major roadbuilding schemes slowed in response to inflation surge

www.theguardian.com

HS2 will be delayed by another two years and major roadbuilding schemes will be mothballed, ministers have confirmed, after soaring inflation added billions to the cost of transport infrastructure projects.
Ministers insisted they remained committed to Britain’s high-speed rail network scheme, but the budget constraints have cast doubt over prospects for the rail project’s delivery.
Parts of the HS2 line between Birmingham, Crewe and Manchester will be “rephased” by two years, while trains may now not run all the way into central London until years later than planned as the government “takes time to ensure we have an affordable and deliverable station design” at Euston.

The biggest road schemes will also be kicked into the long grass as transport budgets face swingeing real-terms cuts from 2025. The flagship Lower Thames Crossing, a £7bn tunnel and road scheme linking Essex and Kent, will be deferred for at least two years, into the next five-year phase of National Highways’ roadbuilding.

The transport secretary, Mark Harper, said: “We have seen significant inflationary pressure and increased project costs, and so we will rephase construction by two years, with an aim to deliver high-speed services to Crewe and the north west as soon as possible after accounting for the delay in construction.”

 

[800001]

Just seen a tweet from Modern Railways, attached below, so expect some reports shortly

https://twitter.com/modern_railways/status/1633872274406387713?s=46&t=JLp3J2Up_Gl_m9cQz-au6w

 

[ExRes]

The Treasury are utterly unfit to run the UK economy.

While I'm not going to disagree with you, if the BBC report is to be believed who 'calculated' a cost of £33bn which has risen to £71bn? whoever they were is a bit on the utterly unfit side as well, I'm sure they'll scream inflation but in excess of double? that's not good

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

So a 2-year delay to Phase 2 (Lichfield-Crewe-Manchester), and probably similar for the Euston extension.
There is nothing about delays to Phase 1 (OOC-Birmingham/Lichfield), although that is where the inflation pressure is currently biting.
Some road deferrals too, just to emphasise that this is not solely an HS2 intervention.

It was policy at one time to suggest Lichfield-Crewe would open at the same time as Phase 1, which is not now feasible - the gap will be more like 3 years.
It's a good job the Handsacre link to the WCML was not canned.

 

[Tetchytyke]

HS2 is a project that should never have started. The business case was always shonky- to put it mildly- and there was no way it was ever going to come in anywhere near the originally proposed budget.

But having started it and spent so much money already, the nickel-and-diming on the project is just throwing away yet more money. The end product will be both staggeringly expensive AND useless, rather than merely staggeringly expensive.

The Government committed to this idiotic project when they should have binned it, and trying to reduce scope now is pointless. Either build it properly or don’t build it at all, and given how far we are into the project the latter isn’t really an option now.

 

[domcoop7]

Sorry, why in this scenario would it have the same rolling stock as today? Wouldn't it get new HS2 stock?

Because they wouldn't go anywhere that requires it, and the trains would be empty. The whole idea of HS2 to Leeds / York / Newcastle is they can go to Euston. A Leeds to Birmingham New Street / International route couldn't go to Euston because of capacity. So either it's a shuttle to Leeds and Back, or it would just be the existing Cross-Country North East arm using HS2, which needs to go to off-wire destinations.

A Manchester to Birmingham to Euston link could work, and could justify new trains (although Euston wouldn't have the platform length to accomodate them). But as I say, it'd run at the same speed to Birmingham, and then by the time it accelerated and slowed on its way to Manchester, what exactly have you saved over a Pendolino? 10 minutes? 15?

NPR / HS3 would make more sense to build first than phase 2b of HS2 on its own. Nothing to do with "the North", just common sense.

===

A 2 year delay is disappointing, but in all honesty not surprising. From a Treasury point of view this is a HUGE project, probably counting for a significant proportion of the national GDP. If inflation reduces over the next year or so, they can sign contracts at a lower price. Or they could sign contracts at a higher price today which not only is affected by inflation, but would contribute to inflation due to the vast amount of money expended.

Compared to some schemes, we're still not doing too badly. E.g. Heathrow Runway 3 (under discussion for 20 years, not even approved yet); Stonehenge Tunnel (under discussion for 30 years, not even approved yet); Mottram By-Pass at the end of the M67 (under discussion for 60 years, approved nearly 10 years ago, no spade in the ground yet).

NIMBYism has an institutional chokehold over infrastructure in this country and allows schemes to be kicked into the long grass time after time. I'm not suggesting we should necessarily go the Chinese way i.e. "we decided last week we're building this, get out of your house as we're knocking it down on Tuesday". But there's got to be a better way. Neither of the two main parties has any interest in changing things. When I was born, 40-odd years ago, the population of the country was 56 million. We're probably over 70 million now, and the only major infrastructure differences over that period of time is HS1, some regional railway electrification, the M40 motorway and a few road widening schemes and smart motorways. For a population that's one quarter bigger.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Even more correct. You cannot cut your way to growth.

The Treasury are utterly unfit to run the UK economy.

I’m not sure HM Treasury can be blamed for HS2 proposing a hopelessly unrealistic budget envelope in order to get it through Parliament, nor for HS2 showing precisely no ability to manage costs after getting that approval.

This whole saga is because HS2 had an exceptionally weak business case- hence the unfeasibly low budget envelope.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Mar 2023 ==

NIMBYism has an institutional chokehold over infrastructure in this country and allows schemes to be kicked into the long grass time after time. I'm not suggesting we should necessarily go the Chinese way i.e. "we decided last week we're building this, get out of your house as we're knocking it down on Tuesday". But there's got to be a better way.

Resistance to HS2 wasn’t and isn’t NIMBYism. But it is convenient to claim it as such rather than addressing the salient point, which is that HS2 is essentially a solution looking for a problem.

HS2 was barely justifiable on its original budget and business case, and clearly it was never going to be built for anything approaching that price, even taking into account inflation.

Continued resistance to HS2 isn’t NIMBYism either- the affected people have all been turfed out of their homes, often at an unfair price. The land is vacant, the issue now is that HS2 managers can’t manage costs because the construction magnates who were behind the lobbying for HS2 are price-gouging on their contracts.

 

[Richardr]

Treasury orthodoxy is a big part of the story. But not the only factor. There is no political consensus on these projects and that’s why it is stop-start.

We as electors determine the politics. It reflects the general attitudes of our country. In this case for the worse.

Plus we have a government most of whose MPs want tax cuts rather than public spending, which arguably affects virtually all public services and investment.

Compare with the promise of 40 new hospitals.

 

[HSTEd]

Attempting a reconstruction of Euston may go down as the biggest mistake in the entire scheme.

It's pretty clear there is no workable design and the design team have no real idea how to get one.

 

[greyman42]

Plus we have a government most of whose MPs want tax cuts rather than public spending, which arguably affects virtually all public services and investment.

Compare with the promise of 40 new hospitals.

We also have the need for an increase in defence spending which was never factored in when planning HS2.

 

[Winthorpe]

Plus we have a government most of whose MPs want tax cuts rather than public spending, which arguably affects virtually all public services and investment.

Compare with the promise of 40 new hospitals.

Like I said we in general determine the politics. We elect MPs. You know?

 

[SirDanielGooch]

Now confirmed that everything north of Birmingham will be delayed by 2 years.

In addition, getting services running to Old Oak Common will be prioritised over finishing Euston, so that’s being delayed as well for an indeterminate time. Going to be a massive fight over which out of Euston/Crewe get finished first at some point!

The capacity of the Elizabeth line is going to be put to the test…

On the bright side, the Govt could save some more money by binning off Birmingham Interchange station, as at this rate there’s never going to be anything to interchange with!

 

[bob007]

The anti-London stuff is getting really boring. It would be pretty mad to build a high speed network that excluded by far the largest city and traffic generator in the land.

That’s a London centric view, of which I’m very, very bored. London is the powerhouse because of the investment there. The same can be replicated elsewhere.

Edit: In case it wasn’t obvious: I don’t want a high speed train to London. I want more investment in eg the transpennine upgrade, better east west services in the north, full electrification etc.

 

[Dan G]

Statement:
You can read the written ministerial statement here: https://www.theyworkforyou.com/wms/?id=2023-03-09.hcws625.h&s=+speaker:11588#ghcws625.0

Euston station is to be delayed until it is delivered "alongside high-speed infrastructure to Manchester", presumably meaning *after* Birmingham to Crewe.

So it's going to be just Old Oak Common to Curzon Street now.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Now confirmed that everything north of Birmingham will be delayed by 2 years.

Everything north of Lichfield, I believe.
That's a big difference.

 

[zwk500]

Like I said we in general determine the politics. We elect MPs. You know?

Well, sort of. There's plenty of seats for both major parties where you could put the appropriate rosette on a steaming pile of horse manure and they'd still win because of First Past the Post and fiddling with boundaries. (No comments about comparisons of horse manure to certain MPs effectiveness please).

 

[pilotrobbie]

A 2 year delay is disappointing, but in all honesty not surprising. From a Treasury point of view this is a HUGE project, probably counting for a significant proportion of the national GDP. If inflation reduces over the next year or so, they can sign contracts at a lower price. Or they could sign contracts at a higher price today which not only is affected by inflation, but would contribute to inflation due to the vast amount of money expended.

Compared to some schemes, we're still not doing too badly. E.g. Heathrow Runway 3 (under discussion for 20 years, not even approved yet); Stonehenge Tunnel (under discussion for 30 years, not even approved yet); Mottram By-Pass at the end of the M67 (under discussion for 60 years, approved nearly 10 years ago, no spade in the ground yet).

NIMBYism has an institutional chokehold over infrastructure in this country and allows schemes to be kicked into the long grass time after time. I'm not suggesting we should necessarily go the Chinese way i.e. "we decided last week we're building this, get out of your house as we're knocking it down on Tuesday". But there's got to be a better way. Neither of the two main parties has any interest in changing things. When I was born, 40-odd years ago, the population of the country was 56 million. We're probably over 70 million now, and the only major infrastructure differences over that period of time is HS1, some regional railway electrification, the M40 motorway and a few road widening schemes and smart motorways. For a population that's one quarter bigger.

I fully agree, with things like Heathrow expansion, and Gatwick's additional southerly runway. HS2 connecting up to HS1 so you can connect HS1 pax + freight up to the north bypassing London. Crossrail 2, BLE etc

All these projects would pay for themselves over a huge span of time but are essentially needed and half of the aspects. Problem is, Labour will agree with the Greens/Lib Dems and when they get in, most of this will never go ahead and thus you delay by XYZ years. Post-COVID this is probably the way to go to boom the economy.

 

[SirDanielGooch]

Everything north of Lichfield, I believe.
That's a big difference.

Apologies yes, you’re correct. The media reports are all saying Birmingham, but the Lichfield spur is still part of phase 1.

 

[Nottingham59]

Everything north of Lichfield, I believe.
That's a big difference.

Is that definite? I know the Hansacre connection to the WCML is/was part of Phase 1. Are there any official announcements that confirm it will not be delayed?

 

[zwk500]

Is that definite? I know the Hansacre connection to the WCML is/was part of Phase 1. Are there any official announcements that confirm it will not be delayed?

Handsacre needs to happen otherwise there'll be no connection between the classic line and HS2 other than the IMD at Calvert, which would make running trains from Liverpool and Glasgow onto it interesting.

 

[Winthorpe]

Well, sort of. There's plenty of seats for both major parties where you could put the appropriate rosette on a steaming pile of horse manure and they'd still win because of First Past the Post and fiddling with boundaries. (No comments about comparisons of horse manure to certain MPs effectiveness please).

Do you think the coalition government of 2010 was that much better at infrastructure investment?

 

[SCDR_WMR]

Everything north of Lichfield, I believe.
That's a big difference.

Very big, and often misquoted in the media and on here. Handsacre is very well progressed and allows HS2 to use the WCML compared to Curzon which is just a terminal station

 

[Nottingham59]

Handsacre needs to happen otherwise there'll be no connection between the classic line and HS2 other than the IMD at Calvert, which would make running trains from Liverpool and Glasgow onto it interesting.

The statement says:

"The government is prioritising HS2’s initial services between Old Oak Common in London and Birmingham Curzon Street to provide delivery of passenger benefits as soon as possible."

If they were going to put WCML services from Manchester onto HS2 from day 1, then I would expect them to boast about that too.

 

[43066]

Statement:
View attachment 130546

Euston station is to be delayed until it is delivered "alongside high-speed infrastructure to Manchester", presumably meaning *after* Birmingham to Crewe.

So it's going to be just Old Oak Common to Curzon Street now.

Sounds like it, at least initially. In which case there is surely a risk of the whole project becoming an expensive white elephant.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Mar 2023 ==

Edit: In case it wasn’t obvious: I don’t want a high speed train to London. I want more investment in eg the transpennine upgrade, better east west services in the north, full electrification etc

You’ll find this particular thread is specifically about a high speed train to London, so not sure how relevant that viewpoint is to discuss on here?

 

[Howardh]

I don't even know what a "billion" is in this context. 100m? 1000m? A million million?? I reckon the wider general public is just like me, we can comprehend, say, £10m - let's say the cost of a new primary school or something, but when you get to a billion it's an abstract number.

I heard on Sky that the cost today of HS2 completion was "near 100 billion". Of course that's over x number of years, but how many millions do they actually mean?

 

[Bletchleyite]

One advantage of what has been done over canning it, sacking everyone and selling the land is that it is very unlikely we will have a Tory Government in 2 years time, so whoever it is can then make their own decision.

 

[WatcherZero]

Surely part of the increase in spend rate on phase 1/2A is because they decided to extend to Crewe with an early opening, which is their own fault. For the Crewe section at least all this does is return it to the original work tempo, though beyond Crewe is now delayed two years.

 

[Manutd1999]

It's very difficult to understand what the base case completion dates are/were, and what this new delay therefore entails.

Before today, I understood the plan was:

• Phase 1 (OOC - Birmingham and Lichfield spur), including running to Manchester/Liverpool/Glasgow via the WCML, to be delivered between 2029 and 2033
• Euston and Phase 2a (Lichfield to Crewe), also to be delivered before 2033
• Phase 2b and Manchester HS2 stations to be delivered by approximately 2040, but not the Golbourne spur
• HS2 to East Midlands to be delivered after 2040 (if at all.....)

After today, perhaps the plan is something like this?

• Phase 1 (OOC - Birmingham and Lichfield spur) to be delivered between 2029 and 2033 (no change)
• Euston and Phase 2a (Lichfield to Crewe) to be delivered by approximately 2035
• Phase 2b and the Midlands leg unchanged

 

[RailWonderer]

What will this rearranged opening of HS2 mean for service frequencies? I can’t see it as too popular if it only starts and terminates at OOC, if they slash services from Euston as planned they will be very overcrowded as many will still prefer travelling into and out of Euston to OOC.