More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[Bald Rick]

When St Pancras was being redeveloped they put the MML in a temporary outdoor station with a Portakabin.

That is nonsense. Having commuted through St Pancras every day through the rebuild, the ‘temporary outdoor station’ is what is now platforms 8-13

 

[Greybeard33]

You need to read the whole sentence which also says ‘while the High Speed Rail (Crewe-Manchester) Bill continues through Parliament’ in respect of when Euston is delivered.

The version of the statement that is currently on the gov.uk website does not say that. There are two separate sentences:

We will therefore take the time to ensure we have an affordable and deliverable station design, delivering Euston alongside high-speed infrastructure to Manchester. We continue to take the High Speed Rail (Crewe – Manchester) Bill through Parliament, and the Crewe-to-Manchester section will also form the foundations for improved rail services in the North through Northern Powerhouse Rail.

Record investment plans for transport network

Over £40 billion will be invested in transformational transport schemes over the next 2 financial years across the country.

www.gov.uk

 

[Meerkat]

The version of the statement that is currently on the gov.uk website does not say that. There are two separate sentences:

Record investment plans for transport network

Over £40 billion will be invested in transformational transport schemes over the next 2 financial years across the country.

www.gov.uk

But that could be read as the bit to Crewe being part of the route to Manchester.

 

[Xavi]

But that could be read as the bit to Crewe being part of the route to Manchester.

That’s the correct interpretation.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Having commuted through St Pancras every day through the rebuild, the ‘temporary outdoor station’ is what is now platforms 8-13

IIRC it was what is now 1-4, but without any of the facilities as the station was being rebuilt.

(Still isn’t much better for the MML tbh)

 

[MattRat]

I dont quite understand. If they are putting in foundations for something at Euston rather than just doing clearance work, are you suggesting it is all going to have to be dug up again when there is a new plan?

That would certainly explain the delays.

 

[Greybeard33]

That’s the correct interpretation.

In which case the statement was misleading - it is not surprising the media have interpreted it differently. It should have said "... infrastructure to Crewe". Phase 2a is not infrastructure to Manchester, any more than Phase 1 is.

The statement did not mention Phase 2a until the next paragraph:

The government is committed to delivering HS2 Phase 2a between Birmingham and Crewe. We have seen significant inflationary pressure and increased project costs, and so we will rephase construction by 2 years, with an aim to deliver high-speed services to Crewe and the North West as soon as possible after accounting for the delay in construction.

That does not say that the high-speed services to Crewe will be from Euston rather than OOC.

 

[HSTEd]

You need to read the whole sentence which also says ‘while the High Speed Rail (Crewe-Manchester) Bill continues through Parliament’ in respect of when Euston is delivered.

I read that as the process of developing the design being undertaken in parallel with getting the bill through parliament, not the construction of the design.

Delivery would then take place alongside the delivery o thef infrastructure to Manchester.

 

[stuu]

And despite this supposed progress, the project is now being put back by years in an attempt to design an "affordable" station. Station now to be delivered "alongside" Crewe-Manchester - which means 2041 at the earliest.

Which strongly suggests the existing plan has been revealed to be unworkable. Just like the last one that cost over £100m and achieved nothing.

I too am puzzled by Euston. The site is obviously more constrained than OOC, and more complex in terms of logistics, but it isn't that difficult a site, certainly no worse than building a skyscraper in the City. OOC is going to be done in 4-5 years if all goes to plan. Tunnelling to Euston is about a two-year job, so not on the critical path. The site has been cleared, it is being excavated and piled, so what is possibly going to take 11 years to achieve?

 

[Snow1964]

I too am puzzled by Euston. The site is obviously more constrained than OOC, and more complex in terms of logistics, but it isn't that difficult a site, certainly no worse than building a skyscraper in the City. OOC is going to be done in 4-5 years if all goes to plan. Tunnelling to Euston is about a two-year job, so not on the critical path. The site has been cleared, it is being excavated and piled, so what is possibly going to take 11 years to achieve?

You are not the only one puzzled. There has already been one (expensive) version of the design, now there is another with one less platform.

The time consuming land acquisition, demolition and digging has generally already been done, this is the part with risks as dealing with unknowns on buying up the buildings and discovering how difficult they are to demolish and clear. Once the digging and clearance to piling level is done (which part of the site is already at, and rest not too far behind), big unknowns are nearly finished.

But basically now have a big hole, ready for some rows of piles (ok, there are hundreds of piles), but then have a concrete floor slab, and some columns and extra concrete floors, the upper one is basically a flat roof over which oversite developments are erected, be it steel framed or concrete building.

From a civil engineering point of view, hanging some external cladding on the above station development, and rest is internal fit out. I too am baffled why that needs 11 years, or how still building same thing but spreading it over 2 extra years saves money on materials.

Any materials inflation, is more a decision not to procure, and allow the suppliers to hedge the material costs. Sensible people do not build half a building and only then think about the materials for the rest, and then buy remainder at market prices as risks completion being unaffordable. Otherwise only alternative is to keep changing the design whilst you go along trying to pare down bits of a part built design to try and save money, so end up with parts of the building that never really function well.

 

[tomuk]

You are not the only one puzzled. There has already been one (expensive) version of the design, now there is another with one less platform.

The time consuming land acquisition, demolition and digging has generally already been done, this is the part with risks as dealing with unknowns on buying up the buildings and discovering how difficult they are to demolish and clear. Once the digging and clearance to piling level is done (which part of the site is already at, and rest not too far behind), big unknowns are nearly finished.

But basically now have a big hole, ready for some rows of piles (ok, there are hundreds of piles), but then have a concrete floor slab, and some columns and extra concrete floors, the upper one is basically a flat roof over which oversite developments are erected, be it steel framed or concrete building.

From a civil engineering point of view, hanging some external cladding on the above station development, and rest is internal fit out. I too am baffled why that needs 11 years, or how still building same thing but spreading it over 2 extra years saves money on materials.

Any materials inflation, is more a decision not to procure, and allow the suppliers to hedge the material costs. Sensible people do not build half a building and only then think about the materials for the rest, and then buy remainder at market prices as risks completion being unaffordable. Otherwise only alternative is to keep changing the design whilst you go along trying to pare down bits of a part built design to try and save money, so end up with parts of the building that never really function well.

The problem at Euston is the potential property development value is rather large if you could remove the entire station or at least build a raft over the whole of it that would be 'prime real estate'. However there are some constraints in terms of height - st Pauls, Camden residents, the NR side of the station and of course it all still needs to work as a station.

This potential gain and the constraints on maximizing feed into the conflicting drivers of the project. Previous iterations of the design to greater and lesser degrees took into account the redevelopment potential but were also driven by the differing requirements, of construction and operation and the changing available budgets of HS2 and NR.

NR's position and ability to finance a complete rebuild falling away with their reclassification as a government body. HS2s largess also becoming constrained due to on going project cost increases. With of course the Government as overall funder having had to deal with various more serious headwinds, covid, ukraine etc. This has left the Euston project with a focus on cost savings now not the future potential development gain.

The original London Bridge style phased sequential development of the whole site with the NR side also being redone was the optimum but had the highest costs upfront and it was reliant on moving Inter city services to the HS2 side at an appropriate time to empty the NR side.

The delays to HS2 and the station and the focus on savings now mean that the station development as well as not being optimal is now out of sync with the build of the HS2 line.

The current build it in one go plan is is at odds with the stepped increase in HS2 services from 6 to 12 to 18 tph. It won't be ready for the initial 6tph service but isn't needed until the service grows it is a bit chicken and so to keep within yearly budgets and too maybe look at the best approach again it on hold.

 

[daodao]

I do not understand the logic in delaying the opening of the new HS2 Euston station for such an extended period. A central London terminus is critical to the success of HS2. By contrast, the branch from Crewe to Manchester (phase 2b) is secondary, and won't be value for money as it will be used by less than a handful of trains per hour and requires expensive tunnelling in South Manchester from the proposed new station at Hale Barns northwards.

 

[davews]

Even in the original timescales HS2 would never have been ready in my lifetime - I am 74 next month. I will be well in my 90s by the time any of it opens so hardly still bombing around the trains like I do. And if I were going to Birmingham I would be unlikely to use HS2 if it started from OOC. Much quicker on XC from Reading. If it were not for the incredible amount of work already done I would already be in the anti-HS2 groups but now we have started I guess we have to go on.

 

[Xavi]

I repeat, Euston is not delayed to the extent the right wing media (and some who should know better) is portraying. The ‘affordable and deliverable’ design completes this spring. Construction will not be demobilised. Euston will open 18 months - 3 years after OOC which has been the plan since 2020.

 

[SCDR_WMR]

Isn't the current hole at Euston down to the Underground development but with piles for the HS2 station so more along the lines of the enabling works for the future station? Obviously the works from the throat onwards isn't underground related

 

[SirDanielGooch]

Value to the economy doesn't pay it back, they want cash.
Borrowing too much is robbing future generations - they have to pay it back or refinance it.

Speaking as a member of those future generations, and as someone to undertakes cost-benefit analysis modelling for a living, I feel obligated to point out that running an economy is nothing like running a household budget, and much more like running a business.

Value to the economy DOES pay it back to the government in the form of increased tax take, and reduced need for government intervention.
Doing things on the cheap for the here and now costs an awful lot of money tomorrow. If you want to leave a healthy economy/national debt situation for future generations, then borrow to invest now to save the future, and build the infrastructure properly. The proof of the pudding is that the last 13 years of government have tried to penny pinch across the board, and yet between 2010-16 alone they’re responsible for growing the national debt more than every Labour government in history put together, and it’s only ballooned since even without the impact of covid. Invest in infrastructure, build things through to completion, and we’ll reap the benefits for generations to come.

 

[Snow1964]

I repeat, Euston is not delayed to the extent the right wing media (and some who should know better) is portraying. The ‘affordable and deliverable’ design completes this spring. Construction will not be demobilised. Euston will open 18 months - 3 years after OOC which has been the plan since 2020.

I still don't understand why Euston has to open in one go, rather than phased. As an example 10tph, of which 6 initially terminate at Old Oak, but 4 continue to Euston, and use 3 platforms whilst they continue to build the other platforms.

Unless I am misunderstanding, seems that Euston will not be opened until all platforms are built, even if the train service has not ramped up to final full level of destinations and frequency.

Almost feels to me that when Euston opens, virtually nothing will terminate at Old Oak Common, so middle pair of platforms at OOC become obsolete, which seems very wasteful.

 

[Meerkat]

Value to the economy DOES pay it back to the government in the form of increased tax take

Was the HS2 business case based on cash tax increases? I thought it included a lot of environmental and time saved stuff that has only a dubious link to increased tax take.
As tax take is only part of any increase in activity the gain created by HS2 would have to be considerable.

 

[JonathanH]

Almost feels to me that when Euston opens, virtually nothing will terminate at Old Oak Common, so middle pair of platforms at OOC become obsolete, which seems very wasteful.

Old Oak Common will need multiple platforms in each direction to allow throughput of trains if the headways are to be maintained

 

[Meerkat]

I still don't understand why Euston has to open in one go, rather than phased. As an example 10tph, of which 6 initially terminate at Old Oak, but 4 continue to Euston, and use 3 platforms whilst they continue to build the other platforms.

Unless I am misunderstanding, seems that Euston will not be opened until all platforms are built, even if the train service has not ramped up to final full level of destinations and frequency.

Almost feels to me that when Euston opens, virtually nothing will terminate at Old Oak Common, so middle pair of platforms at OOC become obsolete, which seems very wasteful.

I thought part of the delay was due to them deciding that rebuilding Euston in two parts was massively more expensive?

 

[Mikey C]

I too am confused at how long it will be take to build Euston. The disused Underground station building is still there incidentally.

 

[zwk500]

I still don't understand why Euston has to open in one go, rather than phased. As an example 10tph, of which 6 initially terminate at Old Oak, but 4 continue to Euston, and use 3 platforms whilst they continue to build the other platforms.

Unless I am misunderstanding, seems that Euston will not be opened until all platforms are built, even if the train service has not ramped up to final full level of destinations and frequency.

Euston could have opened with reduced capacity but the benefits of doing so are limited compared to the problems of keeping it as one site.

Almost feels to me that when Euston opens, virtually nothing will terminate at Old Oak Common, so middle pair of platforms at OOC become obsolete, which seems very wasteful.

OOC will require all 6 platforms to handle the throughput as all trains will be stopping at OOC. Hence why Euston needs to open fully before the train frequency can increase.

 

[Neen Sollars]

So this is all as clear as mud. Does anyone have any idea when/if this will be debated in the Commons? Or when a clarification document will be produced. I have no doubt Bill Cash and Michael Fabricant will be pushing for a debate and clarity on all of this.

 

[dangie]

…..I have no doubt Bill Cash and Michael Fabricant will be pushing for a debate and clarity on all of this.

I live next to Fabricant’s constituency. Until he does something with his hair it’s difficult to take him seriously. He makes Boris look neat……

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

So this is all as clear as mud. Does anyone have any idea when/if this will be debated in the Commons? Or when a clarification document will be produced. I have no doubt Bill Cash and Michael Fabricant will be pushing for a debate and clarity on all of this.

Unless someone puts down an early day motion it wont be debated and there are more important matters concerning the country. This is a long burn project and a lot can and will change over the next 18mths as the general election approaches.

Base problem the DfT has is Treasury wont give them more money so with inflation hurting many projects in construction they are ring fencing projects with shovels in the ground and saving money on development costs on parts of HS2 and several road schemes as well.

 

[bob007]

I repeat, Euston is not delayed to the extent the right wing media (and some who should know better) is portraying. The ‘affordable and deliverable’ design completes this spring. Construction will not be demobilised. Euston will open 18 months - 3 years after OOC which has been the plan since 2020.

I know someone very senior on the inside of the Euston JV and they were told they have started demobilising their staff, down to a skeleton

Edit: It could all change next week of course. That just what I was told on Friday

Edit2: I notice your name…do you work at the JV?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I'd suggest the HS2 (and other transport) project announcement was part of the run up to next week's budget.
The main parameters for DfT's budget for the next 4 years were set at Jeremy Hunt's Autumn Statement.
The Budget will certainly be debated, challenged and voted on, but is essentially fait accomplis when the Red Book is published.

In the black and white world we live in, what the forum seems to regard as delay, descoping and budget cuts, is described by the DfT as "Record Investment Plans for Transport Network" (£40 billion over the next 2 years).

 

[PG]

In the black and white world we live in, what the forum seems to regard as delay, descoping and budget cuts, is described by the DfT as "Record Investment Plans for Transport Network" (£40 billion over the next 2 years).

Otherwise known as Spin... Would you really expect anything else from the government (regardless of colour)?

 

[Neen Sollars]

"Unless someone puts down an early day motion it wont be debated and there are more important matters concerning the country."

Yes, probably be a debate about Gary Lineker.

 

[mrmartin]

Are the Euston tunnels still going to head, at least the civils for them? The HS2 website has them starting in 2024 and seems to suggest some procurement has already been done

The pre-cast concrete sections lining the tunnel will be manufactured by Pacadar UK at their factory on the Isle of Grain, Kent. These sections, each weighing seven tonnes, will be transported to site by rail.