More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[Fazaar1889]

It will be slab track throughout

Thanks. Is that a good or bad thing?

 

[The Planner]

Thanks. Is that a good or bad thing?

Good in that you dont have to do a lot to it, bad in that it has a high capital cost (offset by not needing as much maintenance, you would be replacing ballast constantly otherwise) and semi bad depending on how it gets replaced.

 

[stuu]

The contracts for the railway system (track, signalling, electrification, communications) haven't been let yet, apart for some complex track work (S&C).
There isn't a published timeline or logistics plan, but it could be 2026/27 before they start.
It will be slab track throughout, so that will be the starting point.
Cost will be really important in the current climate.

The contract for the concrete slab was let a couple of years ago, the contractor is building a new factory near Merehead quarry

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The contract for the concrete slab was let a couple of years ago, the contractor is building a new factory near Merehead quarry

Would it be the case that the installation of the slab (or anything else directly to do with the operational railway) is not yet contracted?
Happy to be corrected.

 

[Fazaar1889]

Good in that you dont have to do a lot to it, bad in that it has a high capital cost (offset by not needing as much maintenance, you would be replacing ballast constantly otherwise) and semi bad depending on how it gets replaced.

Interesting. Thank you!

 

[stuu]

Would it be the case that the installation of the slab (or anything else directly to do with the operational railway) is not yet contracted?
Happy to be corrected.

Yes, that does seem to be correct, the installation is a separate tender due to be announced in 2022 (at the time of the contract award for the slabs)

 

[Fazaar1889]

Why is phase 2b expected to take an extra 10 years when it's just an extension from crewe to Manchester an from the West Midlands to East Midlands Parkway? Phase 2a is expected to be completed in ~2030 while 2b is ~2040

 

[350401]

Why is phase 2b expected to take an extra 10 years when it's just an extension from crewe to Manchester an from the West Midlands to East Midlands Parkway? Phase 2a is expected to be completed in ~2030 while 2b is ~2040

Phase 2b to Manchester is expected to be delivered between 2035 and 2041; it’s quite a big window. I saw on my local news site (alderley edge.com) the following which suggests it’s on the earlier side of that -

“Lindsey Preece, Senior Communications Manager, said "Subject to the Parliamentary process, we expect to achieve Royal Assent (powers to build and operate the railway) in December 2025. Early works to prepare for construction of the Crewe – Manchester extension would begin in 2026 and we would expect the main civils programme to commence around 2027, lasting for around six years”.

https://www.alderleyedge.com/news/a...&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter1505

This suggests something earlier, but learning from Crossrail, HS2 are choosing to under promise and then, hopefully, over deliver.

 

[Fazaar1889]

Phase 2b to Manchester is expected to be delivered between 2035 and 2041; it’s quite a big window. I saw on my local news site (alderley edge.com) the following which suggests it’s on the earlier side of that -

“Lindsey Preece, Senior Communications Manager, said "Subject to the Parliamentary process, we expect to achieve Royal Assent (powers to build and operate the railway) in December 2025. Early works to prepare for construction of the Crewe – Manchester extension would begin in 2026 and we would expect the main civils programme to commence around 2027, lasting for around six years”.

https://www.alderleyedge.com/news/a...&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter1505

This suggests something earlier, but learning from Crossrail, HS2 are choosing to under promise and then, hopefully, over deliver.

Ah gotcha, that makes a lot more sense. I got the info from wikipedia (which said 2040-45) but I imagine that it's just a place holder. In reality, by 2035 makes the most sense.

 

[JamesT]

Ah gotcha, that makes a lot more sense. I got the info from wikipedia (which said 2040-45) but I imagine that it's just a place holder. In reality, by 2035 makes the most sense.

Why does 2035 make more sense? Work won't start until 2026 and although much of it will be in the countryside, tunnelling under Manchester and rebuilding chunks of Piccadilly may not be straightforward.

 

[Fazaar1889]

Why does 2035 make more sense? Work won't start until 2026 and although much of it will be in the countryside, tunnelling under Manchester and rebuilding chunks of Piccadilly may not be straightforward.

2026 to 2040/45 is 14/19 years for phase2b
2020 to 2030/33 is 10/13 years for phase 1/2b

To construct phase 2b, a far smaller section, shouldn't need to take 1.5x longer. I know it's not straightforward but come on... 15 years? If constructions begins in 2026, 2035 (a 9 year time span) makes more sense to construct phase 2b.

 

[bib]

Amazing they managed to build the original London - Birmingham Curzon street in 5 years, mostly by hand. Hopefully we have a better health and safety record nowadays.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Why does 2035 make more sense? Work won't start until 2026 and although much of it will be in the countryside, tunnelling under Manchester and rebuilding chunks of Piccadilly may not be straightforward.

The funding will be the problem.
Phase 1 is already being capped on its annual spend, hence the delay to reaching Handsacre and Crewe (and Euston).
It will be up to a future Chancellor to decide how fast to build the Manchester/East Mids legs.
When Kier Starmer and Rachel Reeves talk about keeping the Tory spending limits initially, that means no instant acceleration for HS2 plans.
We need answer at Euston before any detail will be possible on the rest of the project.

 

[chris2]

Some discussion on Euston happening over here. Would be interested to hear more views on the potential options.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Regrettably, the Guardian is turning its editorial firepower against HS2.
Larry Elliot (economics) and Simon Jenkins (architecture and environment) are both lobbying for cancellation along the Tony Berkeley line - ie spend the money in the north.
They have both taken the IPA report's judgment of "undeliverable" at face value.

HS2 is the white elephant in the room. If the Tories won’t scrap it, Labour must | Larry Elliott

The vanity project is scandalously over budget. Finally cancelling it would show the party is serious about public finances, says the Guardian’s economics editor Larry Elliott

www.theguardian.com

In a sense the IPA report told us nothing that wasn’t known already. HS2 is a scandalous waste of money. It is a vanity project that has caused immense environmental damage. The pressure on the Department for Transport’s budget from cost overruns means spending on projects that offer bigger economic and social returns is being squeezed. Delays mean the first trains to Manchester won’t arrive – even assuming there is no further slippage – until the late 2030s at the earliest and perhaps not until 2043.
There are still those who insist that HS2 is needed to boost capacity on the rail network, which even if true misses the point: that every pound spent on HS2 is a pound that can’t be spent on other rail projects.

The trouble is, it just increases pressure on both the current government and its successor to "do something" about what is seen as a great while elephant.

 

[Silenos]

Regrettably, the Guardian is turning its editorial firepower against HS2.
Larry Elliot (economics) and Simon Jenkins (architecture and environment) are both lobbying for cancellation along the Tony Berkeley line - ie spend the money in the north.
They have both taken the IPA report's judgment of "undeliverable" at face value.

HS2 is the white elephant in the room. If the Tories won’t scrap it, Labour must | Larry Elliott

The vanity project is scandalously over budget. Finally cancelling it would show the party is serious about public finances, says the Guardian’s economics editor Larry Elliott

www.theguardian.com

The trouble is, it just increases pressure on both the current government and its successor to "do something" about what is seen as a great while elephant.

To be fair, I very much doubt that the present government will be taking any advice from The Guardian. If it had been their masters at the Mail, now…

 

[Malaxa]

Thank goodness that the ever-expanding, post-1950s motorway network never caused 'immense environmental damage'

 

[Topological]

On a day when one set of relics of the last century were loaded onto a boat to help Mexico build a high speed line, another relic of the last century rears its' head...

IF Labour were to scrap HS2 then it would show what a backward party they are and I strongly doubt they are going down that route. Possibly this is a sounding board so their policy people get some feedback ahead of the election campaign next year. It does not make sense that the UK would look to lag behind Mexico on HS rail.

 

[eldomtom2]

On a day when one set of relics of the last century were loaded onto a boat to help Mexico build a high speed line, another relic of the last century rears its' head...

IF Labour were to scrap HS2 then it would show what a backward party they are and I strongly doubt they are going down that route. Possibly this is a sounding board so their policy people get some feedback ahead of the election campaign next year. It does not make sense that the UK would look to lag behind Mexico on HS rail.

Tren Maya isn't high speed.

 

[zwk500]

It does not make sense that the UK would look to lag behind Mexico on HS rail.

This is the very worst way to make public policy.

 

[Grimsby town]

Regrettably, the Guardian is turning its editorial firepower against HS2.
Larry Elliot (economics) and Simon Jenkins (architecture and environment) are both lobbying for cancellation along the Tony Berkeley line - ie spend the money in the north.

They've both been arguing against HS2 for years though as far as I'm aware so not much of a change. The problem with the 'cancel HS2 and spend it on other projects' is there aren't loads of large, shovel ready projects that the construction staff can be moved to. Cancelling phase 1 would just mean making a lot of people working on it redundant and then hoping that they want to come back in 5 years when the alternative upgrades are ready to start construction.

Cancelling phase 1 would be complete idiocy. Cancelling phase 2b and doing an alternative scheme would be possible because there's time for that to be designed ready for phase 1 staff to move on to it or new staff to be trained. Obviously phase 2b is an upgrade to the North's railways so cancelling a developed plan for some alternative northern upgrade seems pointless.

 

[Tezza1978]

Yea

They've both been arguing against HS2 for years though as far as I'm aware so not much of a change. The problem with the 'cancel HS2 and spend it on other projects' is there aren't loads of large, shovel ready projects that the construction staff can be moved to. Cancelling phase 1 would just mean making a lot of people working on it redundant and then hoping that they want to come back in 5 years when the alternative upgrades are ready to start construction.

Cancelling phase 1 would be complete idiocy. Cancelling phase 2b and doing an alternative scheme would be possible because there's time for that to be designed ready for phase 1 staff to move on to it or new staff to be trained. Obviously phase 2b is an upgrade to the North's railways so cancelling a developed plan for some alternative northern upgrade seems pointless.

Yeah I read that article. Seemed like a load of agenda driven nonsense. Dispiriting that the Guardian is continuing its sad descent (from Corbyn /demanding permanent COVID restrictions onwards) into a hard left, student union/Morning Star comic. Now parrotting Green Party (the anti nuclear, anti public transport clowns that they are) propaganda about environmental destruction (!!) from HS2 - clearly they would prefer more motorways instead **rolls eyes**

0% chance Labour cancel it - Starmer and Reeves are fully committed to it. In particular, the people like this writer calling for phase 1 to be stopped and left as a ruin are literally barking, barking mad.

 

[The Ham]

There's also reports that the TBM's are going to be put in place underground ready to make (but not building yet) the link to Euston from OOC.

It says to ensure that the equipment is ready that engineers would need to go and maintain them. Therefore by pausing it, the cost of the machines have been paid for, extra costs (from the maintenance and higher future construction cost) will be paid and lower early benefits will come about.

It's infuriating for those who want it built, however it's also almost the worst outcome for those who have been concerned about the cost of HS2 - in that a significant amount of the cost of building those tunnels had already been spent.

Diggers to be buried at HS2 station to await green light on Euston extension

The machines will be kept in an underground chamber at Old Oak Common, ready to start tunnelling should the central London leg get the go-ahead.

www.independent.co.uk

While HS2 passenger services are not due to begin for at least six years, Mr Edwards said the pair of German-built diggers needed to be lowered into the holes in 2024 to allow for additional train tracks to be built over the top, with the Great Western main line to be widened as part of the Old Oak Common development.

“We cannot wait, otherwise we would not be able to open the widened conventional station,” Mr Edwards continued.


“However, what we are not doing, we are not precluding tunnelling in the future in the Euston direction, to that destination.”

Should the Old Oak Common to Euston leg — a distance of around five miles — be given the go-ahead, Mr Edwards said the tunnelling work and the daily operation of the major transport hub in the west London suburbs “could happen in parallel if necessary”.


The two boring machines will be named and blessed in a ceremony — with a statue of St Barbara, the patron saint of tunnelling, used during the Christian service — before they are lowered into a deep chamber next year and covered over to await their potential dig towards Euston.

With the diggers potentially due to be stored for years, engineers will be sent down to routinely carry out maintenance on the two heavyweight machines.
The diggers will be positioned underground so that tunnelling work can be carried out immediately if ministers approve the Euston development, without the machines needing to be moved and with the freshly laid train tracks above unaffected.

HS2 was initially scheduled to open in 2026, but this has been delayed to between 2029 and 2033 due to construction difficulties and rising costs.

HS2 trains are now not expected to run to Euston until 2041 at the earliest.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said he is committed to delivering the Euston terminal despite reports earlier this year suggesting Old Oak Common could become the permanent London terminus for HS2 due to growing concerns over costs.

 

[fishwomp]

. The problem with the 'cancel HS2 and spend it on other projects' is there aren't loads of large, shovel ready projects that the construction staff can be moved to.

Many would settle for putting down the shovel and picking up the welder, or training a driver.

It is not new lines but longer trains and fewer cancellations that would change daily life for more people than a long distance service that most people used infrequently.

There are plenty of interventions that would be of great benefit without requiring a gargantuan all-the-money-into-one mega project.

 

[Richardr]

Regrettably, the Guardian is turning its editorial firepower against HS2.
Larry Elliot (economics) and Simon Jenkins (architecture and environment) are both lobbying for cancellation along the Tony Berkeley line - ie spend the money in the north.
They have both taken the IPA report's judgment of "undeliverable" at face value.

HS2 is the white elephant in the room. If the Tories won’t scrap it, Labour must | Larry Elliott

The vanity project is scandalously over budget. Finally cancelling it would show the party is serious about public finances, says the Guardian’s economics editor Larry Elliott

www.theguardian.com

The trouble is, it just increases pressure on both the current government and its successor to "do something" about what is seen as a great while elephant.

When the article (from Larry Elliott) includes:

When I asked an old friend who lives on Merseyside what he thought of HS2

and the conclusions come from that one friend, one knows all one needs to know about the thought that goes into his writing.

 

[gallafent]

environmental destruction (!!) from HS2 - clearly they would prefer more motorways instead **rolls eyes**

... and, arguably even importantly, it means more flights between London and The North; HS2 should be replacing flights from London to Edinburgh, Glasgow, and Aberdeen (and even, at a push, with Bristol superfasts restored (non-stop Bristol <-> Old Oak Common), between Bristol and Edinburgh). Even much of the London <-> Belfast air traffic could usefully reduce its flown distance by using HS2 to Birmingham / Manchester / Liverpool, with appropriately well-thought-out integration. Definite lack of long term thinking ...

Those routes picked as the most important from the article at https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/domestic-flights-in-the-uk-where-do-we-fly/ .

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

One of the arguments they make is that every pound spent on HS2 is a pound taken away from the classic network.
While earlier Transport Secretaries (Adonis, McLoughlin, Grayling) were at pains to say there was no connection between the two, Grant Shapps linked them explicitly in his Integrated Rail Plan, which set £96 billion as the budget for infrastructure changes in the midlands and north, including remaining spend oh HS2.
The Treasury is fixated on that number, which was wrung out of them by the DfT.
So it is indeed true that overspend on HS2 (or on NPR, or MML electrification) will take away spend on other projects for the next several years (the length of the spending review).

Older readers will remember that 1960s WCML electrification overspend took away improvements elsewhere on the network.
And recent NR overspend on WCRM and GW/NW electrification is still impacting all electrification and upgrade proposals.

 

[Geogregor]

Older readers will remember that 1960s WCML electrification overspend took away improvements elsewhere on the network.

And yet, I don't think anyone sane (however old) would question merit of the electrification of WCML

The same is now true about the Elizabeth Line, and the same will be true when HS2 is up and running.

In any large infrastructure project there are always delays and cost overruns, and yet in most cases a few months after opening people can't imagine life without them.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

And yet, I don't think anyone sane (however old) would question merit of the electrification of WCML

No, but it left the rest of the LMR in particular with decrepit stations and infrastructure as there was never the money to upgrade it.
Off-wire places like Chester, Blackburn and Manchester Victoria.
Other regions spent their money more widely, but obviously not on a single main line electrification project.

 

[Backroom_boy]

One of the arguments they make is that every pound spent on HS2 is a pound taken away from the classic network.
While earlier Transport Secretaries (Adonis, McLoughlin, Grayling) were at pains to say there was no connection between the two, Grant Shapps linked them explicitly in his Integrated Rail Plan, which set £96 billion as the budget for infrastructure changes in the midlands and north, including remaining spend oh HS2.
The Treasury is fixated on that number, which was wrung out of them by the DfT.
So it is indeed true that overspend on HS2 (or on NPR, or MML electrification) will take away spend on other projects for the next several years (the length of the spending review).

I don't think this is quite true; while there is an upper limit on the total public spending, money *not* spent on HS2 doesn't then go to the rest of the network. That's not how business cases work.