More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[JamieL]

Out of interest, if the remnant of HS2 out with the OOC to Birmingham leg is scrapped, what options exist for procuring tilting trains as future replacements for the 390s? Are there any new classes of tilting train being planned or coming into Service in Europe?

 

[MattRat]

A lot of those voters won't know anything about HS2 and just see it as a waste of money so announcing it being scrapped and making some vague promises about spending more money on rail in the north could be politically popular for them

Of course, there s a big difference between what is popular and what is the right thing to do.

Except the money is already gone, and that black hole will rear it's ugly head at some point, and how do they plan on explaining it? At least finishing something they can then point to that as where the money went.

 

[Energy]

Out of interest, if the remnant of HS2 out with the OOC to Birmingham leg is scrapped, what options exist for procuring tilting trains as future replacements for the 390s? Are there any new classes of tilting train being planned or coming into Service in Europe?

They'd likely be New Pendolinos, or just not tilt.

The chances of OOC to Birmingham being canceled are low.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Out of interest, if the remnant of HS2 out with the OOC to Birmingham leg is scrapped, what options exist for procuring tilting trains as future replacements for the 390s? Are there any new classes of tilting train being planned or coming into Service in Europe?

The industry seems set against tilt now, both here and abroad.
Alstom is trying to sell off its Pendolino capability, as production falls.
New high speed and re-aligned routes have reduced the market for tilt (eg the new alpine tunnels).

 

[JamieL]

They'd likely be New Pendolinos, or just not tilt.

Do the Pendilinos still meet the necessary safety standards for new trains? If HS2 is being abandoned north of Birmingham, the slower running on the rest of the WCML forced by non-tilting trains would be pretty frustrating for those travelling long distance.

The industry seems set against tilt now, both here and abroad.
Alstom is trying to sell off its Pendolino capability, as production falls.
New high speed and re-aligned routes have reduced the market for tilt (eg the new alpine tunnels).

Thanks - that is disappointing but rather illuminates that cancelling the northern segments of HS2 isn't the right thing to do.

 

[Energy]

Do the Pendilinos still meet the necessary safety standards for new trains?

They wouldn't fit in GB rail gauge anyway so would need a major change to cab design and body shells.

 

[Chester1]

Except you can’t do that. Crewe to Manchester without the spurs toward Warrington and Marsden does nothing for east-west trains. You’d have to build the whole lot in full, for which there aren’t developed plans. So you’d basically delay 2b even further because it has no benefit to building it sooner without HS2.

From what I can make out the strategy is to put labour in the position of looking like they’re wasting on what many northerners believe are “vaninity projects”

Ask any northerner what they think of HS2 and they’ll say something along the lines of:

“I don’t care about getting to London faster, we need better connections across the North”

Now we know that’s a false premise, but politicians will use that to their advantage.

If this government can successfully separate both schemes (HS2 & NPR) Labour would look terrible if they were seen to row-back on the decision to build NPR separately and bring back the “controversial” HS2.

Strategy. That’s about the only thing this government has going for it.

Merging phase 2b with NPR and making it responsibility of TfN is a good way of reducing the political risk for the central government. Euston to East Midlands Parkway and Crewe is all that needs to be a national project.

Gosh, after reading the last couple of pages, people really do believe Labour will save the day with everything public transport don't they..... Truth is, no political party has the want to invest in the network, new or old.

Yes and I am not sure why. The Conservatives and Labour are chasing the same swing voters in north of England and that leads me to think of the Tories decide to bin HS2 phase 2b then Labour won't challenge it.

 

[camflyer]

Merging phase 2b with NPR and making it responsibility of TfN is a good way of reducing the political risk for the central government. Euston to East Midlands Parkway and Crewe is all that needs to be a national project.

Yes and I am not sure why. The Conservatives and Labour are chasing the same swing voters in north of England and that leads me to think of the Tories decide to bin HS2 phase 2b then Labour won't challenge it.

The branding of HS2 has been a disaster from the start. Terms such as "Phase 2b" make the northern leg seem like an afterrhought. Surely some trendy PR company could have come up with a better name for a fee which would be loose change in the overall project

I agree that Labour will mostly keep quiet on the issue in the same way that they are desperate for Brexit not to be an election issue. Mayor Burnham won't be happy but things will cool down after the election. A relaunched HS2 and NPR under a new name could be spun as a major investment in the north.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Merging phase 2b with NPR and making it responsibility of TfN is a good way of reducing the political risk for the central government. Euston to East Midlands Parkway and Crewe is all that needs to be a national project.


Yes and I am not sure why. The Conservatives and Labour are chasing the same swing voters in north of England and that leads me to think of the Tories decide to bin HS2 phase 2b then Labour won't challenge it.

Merging phase 2b into NPR makes sense although TfN would never be able to fund it without significant devolution of borrowing powers. Without phase 2b there is no NPR unless anyone can explain how it would get into central Manchester without the tunnels.

 

[matacaster]

Indeed, although unless you required somewhere very close to Euston, and admittedly St Pancras/King'sX would come under that, it makes little difference, seeing as you would have to transfer on to somethign to get to your destination? Has the Eliz Line the capacity to cope with extra traffic though?

Perhaps you could make capacity available on Liz line by closing some of the stations which tend to be used by local commuters. Local passengers for those closed stations could be told to catch whatever they used before Liz line was built. Thus extra capacity available from OOC.

 

[norbitonflyer]

Perhaps you could make capacity available on Liz line by closing some of the stations which tend to be used by local commuters. Local passengers for those closed stations could be told to catch whatever they used before Liz line was built. Thus extra capacity available from OOC.

The Elizabeth Line trains are the only ones calling at those stations. What the passengers from those stations used before were trains running in the same paths, but only as far as Paddington. So "whatever they used before", has transmogrified into the Elizabeth Line.

Rather than suspending Euston, the Curzon Street branch (twig) should have been dropped. It is only of use for central Birmingham ( no use for Coventry Solihhll or Wolverhampton as there will be no running connection).
As long as the Handsacre connection is there HS2 will be of benefit to NW England, as it will allow trains from anywhere north thereof the bypass the southern end of the WCML.

 

[philosopher]

Rather than suspending Euston, the Curzon Street branch (twig) should have been dropped. It is only of use for central Birmingham ( no use for Coventry Solihhll or Wolverhampton as there will be no running connection).
As long as the Handsacre connection is there HS2 will be of benefit to NW England, as it will allow trains from anywhere north thereof the bypass the southern end of the WCML.

This idea has to me has a few issues. First the West Midlands would get very little benefit from HS2, levelling up applies, or should apply just as much to the Midlands as it does to the North. I know there would still be Birmingham Interchange, but realistically I can’t see it being used much by rail travellers to either Birmingham or Coventry if the Birmingham branch was dropped. These passengers are likely to continue existing WCML services using rather than undertaking a somewhat awkward change at Birmingham Interchange, even if it did save a few minutes.

Second, the HS2 depot will be located at Washwood Heath, so a new location would need to be found for it. Finally construction of Birmingham branch is quite far progressed, meaning cancellation of this branch would result in a lot of wasted spend.

 

[Fazaar1889]

Apologies, not sure where else to post this but are the tracks being laid? I was travelling through Didcot railway station and noticed a freight train with lots and lots of sleepers with tracks. Is this for HS2 or for another project?

 

[GardenRail]

Apologies, not sure where else to post this but are the tracks being laid? I was travelling through Didcot railway station and noticed a freight train with lots and lots of sleepers with tracks. Is this for HS2 or for another project?

For another project. Rail trains are extremely common.

 

[Fazaar1889]

For another project. Rail trains are extremely common.

Damn T^T I got excited over nothing XD

 

[The Ham]

Because Euston has been abandoned. Manchester is in doubt. Leeds has gone, and Sheffield too.

Build it properly and fully, or not at all.

I suspect that quite a few in this thread would quite like it to be built as originally planned.

 

[Parjon]

I suspect that quite a few in this thread would quite like it to be built as originally planned.

Indeed. I very much suspect this also...

 

[SCDR_WMR]

I suspect they meant Digbeth, Saltley and Washwood Heath.

Fair enough, nothing good in those areas I'd agree.

 

[Xavi]

A lot of those voters won't know anything about HS2 and just see it as a waste of money so announcing it being scrapped and making some vague promises about spending more money on rail in the north could be politically popular for them

Of course, there s a big difference between what is popular and what is the right thing to do.

Tories have always claimed HS2 contributes to levelling up, and NPR is nothing without Ph2b. No Tory upside whichever option they choose. In any case, there’s unlikely to be any change to current HS2 plans.

 

[camflyer]

Except the money is already gone, and that black hole will rear it's ugly head at some point, and how do they plan on explaining it? At least finishing something they can then point to that as where the money went.

I agree - but political campaigning rarely has anything to do with rational argument (Exhibit 1: the EU referendum campaign). HS2 has never been popular in the Shires where it is seen as disruptive and of no benefit to them and in the Red Wall where it is a "vanity project". Regardless of the fact that NPR needs Phase 2b to be built and most of the economic benefits of HS2 are north of Manchester, some cynical spinning that the money "saved" could be spent on school, hospitals and local transport services.

I would say zero chance of OOC to Curzon being scrapped as the political fallout would be too great and the economic benefits very small but some delay/rebranding/rescoping of the northern stetch should be expected in the run-up to the election. Euston is the big (and expensive) open question, especially as it is in Starmer's constituency.

 

[Howardh]

Love the line on twitter - Ryanair will run HS2, you'll finish near your destination but further away than you thought.

 

[trebor79]

The branding of HS2 has been a disaster from the start.

Fixed that for you .
More seriously, it's clear that the "best" we are going to end up with is an isolated high speed line from Curzon Street to Old Oak Common. No connectivity to the rest of the network and no improvement in journey time once getting from a watseland in west London to London proper is taken I to account.
The very definition of a white elephant. Absolute embarrassment and a ridiculous shambolic waste of money.

 

[The Planner]

Fixed that for you .
More seriously, it's clear that the "best" we are going to end up with is an isolated high speed line from Curzon Street to Old Oak Common. No connectivity to the rest of the network and no improvement in journey time once getting from a watseland in west London to London proper is taken I to account.
The very definition of a white elephant. Absolute embarrassment and a ridiculous shambolic waste of money.

As much as I'm not a fan of Handsacre, that will get built.

 

[camflyer]

Fixed that for you .
More seriously, it's clear that the "best" we are going to end up with is an isolated high speed line from Curzon Street to Old Oak Common. No connectivity to the rest of the network and no improvement in journey time once getting from a watseland in west London to London proper is taken I to account.
The very definition of a white elephant. Absolute embarrassment and a ridiculous shambolic waste of money.

If built as originally planned it would have been a valuable piece of nation infrastructure right up with the best available iin Europe. It's the constant cuts, political interference and delays which have left us in this mess with the risk that we end up with worst of both worlds, an expensive line which doesn't do much. In a large part it is the anti-HS2 campaigners who have been calling for cutbacks are responsible for ending up with the white elephant that they were against.

 

[Parjon]

Its very inception was a result of "political interference". It is a bad meff concept, executed badly by bad meffs.

 

[HSTEd]

If built as originally planned it would have been a valuable piece of nation infrastructure right up with the best available iin Europe. It's the constant cuts, political interference and delays which have left us in this mess with the risk that we end up with worst of both worlds, an expensive line which doesn't do much. In a large part it is the anti-HS2 campaigners who have been calling for cutbacks are responsible for ending up with the white elephant that they were against.

I'm not sure that is really true.

Most of HS2's problems are self inflicted, from the massive underestimates of cost, the resultant bad optimisation of the scheme, the decision to build a TSI compliant railway and then refuse to comply with TSIs, the very odd operational choices (trying to justify 55 minute layovers in Euston?) and a bunch of other factors. That's before we get to the decision to build a French style high speed rail line in an environment where the primary characteristics of the French concept (reuse of city centre terminals etc) don't apply.

And remember HS2 only exists because of a damacene conversion by a Labour government that realised they were about to lose the next election.

 

[Energy]

Its very inception was a result of "political interference". It is a bad meff concept, executed badly by bad meffs.

No its inception was from existing rail lines lacking capacity and lessons learnt from the WCML upgrade.

HS2 in its original form was the best way of increasing capacity on the WCML, ECML and MML.

I'm not actually against the Leeds branch. cancellation if NPR gets a full high speed line.

Most of HS2's problems are self inflicted, from the massive underestimates of cost, the resultant bad optimisation of the scheme, the decision to build a TSI compliant railway and then refuse to comply with TSIs, the very odd operational choices (trying to justify 55 minute layovers in Euston?) and a bunch of other factors.

Agreed, though NIMBYism turning a lot of phase 1 into tunnels hasn't helped.

And remember HS2 only exists because of a damacene conversion by a Labour government that realised they were about to lose the next election.

And yet it had cross party support?

 

[philosopher]

I do think a lot of people here are a bit too pessimistic on HS2. Yes it does look like the current government will cut HS2 back to just Old Oak Common to Birmingham and Handsacre or Crewe. However given the way the polls are going, we will very likely have a different government in 18 months time.

Kier Starmer as MP for the constituency that Euston is located, is not going to want a vast unfinished construction site in his constituency that would blight a large part of his constituency and raise awkward questions with those residents whose homes or businesses were compulsory purchased for something that was never built. Plus if Labour want to be seen as serious on the Northern Powerhouse and levelling up, resurrecting the Crewe / Manchester leg would be easy move to do.

Even if HS2 was just Old Oak Common to Birmingham and Handsacre it would still release capacity on the WCML and speed up journeys from London to Birmingham, Manchester and Liverpool considerably.

 

[Xavi]

HS2's problems are self inflicted, from the massive underestimates of cost

Government (Treasury) has regularly used the P50 estimate from the earliest very high-level costings. Nobody with an ounce of sense would have used anything other than P95 10-12 years ago, but that wouldn’t have suited the Treasury narrative at the time.

In addition, Construction inflation and extra tunnelling are, of course, always ignored by critics.

 

[HSTEd]

And yet it had cross party support?

Because it would have looked like the evil Tories were trying to ruin the North of England or what not if they didn't support it!
It was politically impossible for the Conservatives not to support it in 2009 if they want to win the election, especially given Cameron's attempt at a green agenda at the time.

Agreed, though NIMBYism turning a lot of phase 1 into tunnels hasn't helped.

I'd argue that more tunnel would have considerably helped the scheme in the long run.

Government (Treasury) has regularly used the P50 estimate from the earliest very high-level costings. Nobody with an ounce of sense would have used anything other than P95 10-12 years ago, but that wouldn’t have suited the Treasury narrative at the time.

Treasury didn't write the original cost estimates that have proven to be ludicrous underestimates.
HS2 did that, and we have had a succession of whistleblowers pointing out that the original estimates weren't worth the paper they were written on.

Things like huge amounts of land being set at zero value for compulsory purchase et al. Which poisons all downstream calculations and optimisations and renders them ultimately worthless.