National Express to retain Essex Thameside franchise

[LNW-GW Joint]

As Merseytravel are a Rail North partner there is perhaps the option of issuing an ITT with 3 lots for trains for 3 different franchises (Merseyrail, Northern and TPE), allowing the possibility for a manufacturer to quote a reduced price for all 3 instead of pricing and awarding each lot individually, unless that breaches tendering rules.

Rail North isn't a TOC or ROSCO, so I doubt it would order trains.
The nearest equivalent is DfT with Class 700/800, but even these were only proxy orders for the TOCs.
They were also service provision contracts, not direct procurement.
Even then the class 800 financial deals for GW and EC were different.
The requirements for ME, NT and TP are wildly different, so it would be a tough call to come up with a spec for a single train type for delivery in three tranches.
Eg a 110/125mph-capable long-distance EMU for TP is no use to Merseyrail.
There is also the fact that Siemens is entrenched at Ardwick. Changing supplier would be costly for TP.
My guess is that TP will get to buy what it wants, while NT and ME will be much more constrained by cost.
(I think this might be better in another thread...)

 

[northwichcat]

Rail North isn't a TOC or ROSCO, so I doubt it would order trains.

WY Metro purchased trains in the past but had to sell them due to a funding shortfall.

There is also the fact that Siemens is entrenched at Ardwick. Changing supplier would be costly for TP.

Depending on what they've got on Siemens may not be interested in new train orders. They didn't bid for Crossrail as they already had enough work, while they weren't really that interested in building more 350s - LM had to twist their arm to get some.

The Anglia franchise has both Siemens and Bombardier trains, while the Ardwick depot won't be able to hold a large number of EMUs in addition to the 185s so I don't really see the issue.
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The interesting one will be Northern as that will surely not be let as a no growth franchise again and it has already been stated that the Govt expects a big cut in subsidy required. Interesting what the various bidders will make of that.

Well Northern turnover £20m a year in net profits and they're also on revenue share due to turning over so much more than they were expected to. However, the terms of the franchise allow them to keep the majority of the additional revenue alongside the subsidy payment and also don't require them to invest that additional revenue in to improvements. So it's win-win for the shareholders but a very different story for the passengers, DfT and also the companies who could be contracted to do improvements like building new seats or PIS to fit on the trains.

 

[Olaf]

Whoa! Compensation for just a 2 minute delay?

I'm sure the offer of this scheme was based on the relatively reliable service already available on this root. Further, they would have taken the risks associated with the increased services into account as well.

At these sort of levels, could they be looking at no-man operation in the new vehicles as a safeguard?
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If I had treated your company the way NX did with DFT regarding East Coast I very much doubt you would want to welcome me back as a future partner anytime soon

Don't forget that the DfT has been shown to be a mess and so I do not think NatEx can be blamed for what happened on the ECML franchise.

 

[jopsuk]

With the new trains: one of the factors, as I understand it, that helps c2c achieve their good performance is having a uniform fleet. Presumably at the very least the new fleet specification will have to require the new and old trains to be able to operate together?
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Also, surely another way to get more capacity from Upminster-Central London would be to extend all H&C services (with additional stock) through to Upminster?

 

[387star]

How did national express ruin east anglia yet succeed so well with c2c?

 

[MidnightFlyer]

It and Merseyrail are probably the most self contained franchises, which probably helps a lot operationally, plus the brand new uniform fleet has most likely helped improve journey times, reliability and punctuality too. Looking at it from a different angle however, from what I can gather, the LTS was really on its arse in the latter years of British Rail (wasn't guided busway a proposal at one point?), so I'm not really sure how it would have been possible to fail, even so someone with a reputation like NatEx has developed in the rail industry!

 

[Manchester77]

Looking at it from a different angle however, from what I can gather, the LTS was really on its arse in the latter years of British Rail (wasn't guided busway a proposal at one point?), so I'm not really sure how it would have been possible to fail, even so someone with a reputation like NatEx has developed in the rail industry!

It was however I thought the busway idea was for Chiltern? Yeah I think NSE had it down to be next in line for total route modernisation and would have recieved the first of the 'universal networkers' (471s I think?).

 

[MidnightFlyer]

Yeah, I knew of Chiltern too, however I was sure someone has said on here before it had a questionable future.

 

[Carlisle]

It was however I thought the busway idea was for Chiltern? Yeah I think NSE had it down to be next in line for total route modernisation and would have recieved the first of the 'universal networkers' (471s I think?).

I think the total route modernisation project (of sorts) had just about begun towards the very end of NSE days with the re signalling and CSR equipping of the line underway and the modernisation and installation of DOO equipment at some stations in preparation for 317s to be initially transferred to the route, NX deserve some credit for seeing the whole thing through

 

[Goldfish62]

SWT appears just as smart as c2c and they have had stability in ownership. Also c2c just happen to have newer and better rolling stock at this time. Long while to wait for class 321 replacement.

SWT have stability, yes, but as smart as c2c? If you're talking about doing the bare minimum, yet hitting all the KPIs then yes, they're pure genius, but that's as far as any smartness with SWT goes, IMHO.

 

[306024]

How did national express ruin east anglia yet succeed so well with c2c?

Ruin may be a bit strong. Remember they met all the DfT criteria for having the East Anglia franchise extended until the East Coast nonsense. Without that the Cloggies may not have got a look in.

Of course they had to implement that dog of a timetable that was in their bid, which the DfT bought without understanding the implications, but fortunately the Olympics was the catalyst for returning the timetable to normality.

There was always the perception that a disproportionate amount of money and resources went into keeping c2c top of the tree. Possibly the financial terms of each franchise was responsible for that, but c2c always appeared better staffed.

Also, surely another way to get more capacity from Upminster-Central London would be to extend all H&C services (with additional stock) through to Upminster?

If you've got all day

 

[Peter Mugridge]

With the new trains: one of the factors, as I understand it, that helps c2c achieve their good performance is having a uniform fleet. Presumably at the very least the new fleet specification will have to require the new and old trains to be able to operate together?

I wonder if they're planning to build a total of 91 new 4 car units ( = present fleet size + 17 ) and move the 357s to either cover further electrification yet to be announced or to maybe cover the Cardiff Valleys instead of moving the 315s there...??

 

[Carlisle]

I wonder if they're planning to build a total of 91 new 4 car units ( = present fleet size + 17 ) and move the 357s to either cover further electrification yet to be announced or to maybe cover the Cardiff Valleys instead of moving the 315s there...??

Think you would need a friend pretty high up in DFT rail to answer that with any conviction

 

[Stats]

I wonder if they're planning to build a total of 91 new 4 car units ( = present fleet size + 17 ) and move the 357s to either cover further electrification yet to be announced or to maybe cover the Cardiff Valleys instead of moving the 315s there...??

No. They have stated quite clearly they are procuring 68 additional carriages and making a substantial investment in refurbishing and upgrading the existing fleet. Why try to read anything else in to it?

 

[Surreyman]

No. They have stated quite clearly they are procuring 68 additional carriages and making a substantial investment in refurbishing and upgrading the existing fleet. Why try to read anything else in to it?

I am not familiar with this line, presumably the 17 new 4 car units are to increase the number trains running as 12 car trains/schedule more trains, ie increased frequency - assuming that the signalling will allow this,
can anyone explain?

 

[Essexman]

With the new trains: one of the factors, as I understand it, that helps c2c achieve their good performance is having a uniform fleet. Presumably at the very least the new fleet specification will have to require the new and old trains to be able to operate together?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Also, surely another way to get more capacity from Upminster-Central London would be to extend all H&C services (with additional stock) through to Upminster?

Few people from Upminster want to get the tube into London even though a seat is guarenteed if boarding the District Line at Upminster. Most would rather stand on C2C and save 20 minutes or so.

Even to Barking few consider the District Line which takes about 12 minutes longer than C2C. After West Ham matches there is often a scrum to board C2C at Barking, with many getting off at Upminster having saved just a few minutes after changing at Barking.

 

[306024]

I am not familiar with this line, presumably the 17 new 4 car units are to increase the number trains running as 12 car trains/schedule more trains, ie increased frequency - assuming that the signalling will allow this,
can anyone explain?

You would be hard pushed to schedule any more trains in the high peak with them all calling at West Ham and Limehouse. Some of the 4 car trains that run on the shoulder of the peak are rather cosy, so you would expect a mix of 8s to 12 and 4s to 8.

These additional units will bring the fleet size approximately up to what is was in the late 70s, but with much better fleet availability.

 

[anthony263]

I wonder if they're planning to build a total of 91 new 4 car units ( = present fleet size + 17 ) and move the 357s to either cover further electrification yet to be announced or to maybe cover the Cardiff Valleys instead of moving the 315s there...??

Would be nice to have the class 357's on the Cardiff Valley lines network however they would need to be reduced to 3 car units.

Of course given the size of the fleet there would still be a lot of class 357's available for use elsewhere perhaps on some electric services around Bristol etc.

 

[Stats]

With the discrepancy between the dates given by National Express, who say the new trains will be introduced from 2019, and the DfT, who say the fleet size will increase by 2024, I suspect that once the new trains are introduced the 357s will be temporarily taken off lease a few at a time to refurbish and upgrade them to resolve any compatibility issues with the 17 additional trains.

 

[Carlisle]

After West Ham matches there is often a scrum to board C2C at Barking, with many getting off at Upminster having saved just a few minutes after changing at Barking.

Shouldn't be a problem for too much longer with the planned move to the Olympic stadium

 

[306024]

Shouldn't be a problem for too much longer with the planned move to the Olympic stadium

Not at Barking, but if the proposed weekend Liverpool St service actually gets into the timetable it could cause crowding issues at Stratford, as the Hammers fans wait for a through train to c2c land rather than take the Jubilee line one stop to... err... West Ham.

 

[edwin_m]

So is this the background to the proposed 20 tph Upminster all stopper service. There'll be winners and losers.
The losers will be the vocal and influential Southend commuters. Currently they get the 12 coach (fast) trains, and they're packed.
What benefit is there in stopping already packed trains?
...
Can Barking to Fen St cope wih more than the 20tph it has now?

I think you've sort of answered your own question here. Having all trains stopping at all stations on this section increases capacity, both by removing the difference in journey times and possibly also by permitting lower maximum speeds and closer-spaced signals in the vicinity of the stations. The signalling changes at West Ham a couple of years ago were intended to do this if I recall correctly. This is probably also the reason to go for new trains rather than cascaded stock, as something like a 319 wouldn't be able to keep to 357 timings on this critical section.

No doubt the regulars will soon find out what trains have seats available, and those from Barking and Upminster will gravitate towards the shorter-distance workings. In a sense though this is a problem of c2c's own working, as they are so much faster (and possibly more comfortable) than the Tube from Upminster and the fares are interavailable. In fact I believe some commuters from LU stops near Upminster double back there.

And where will the extra 4 tph at Upminster come from? They can't start from there.
Not from Grays/Ockendon along the single line, surely.
Not Laindon starters either - I can't see it turning round more than the 4tph is already does.
So more from Leigh or beyond? That sounds more beneficial to Southend commuters than outer London commuters.
Wherever they come from, making them 12 coaches is essential for those West Ham and Limehouse passengers,
but we have a 10 year wait for that. Shame.

There are some infrastructure options that would allow peak hour turnback at Upminster, but they are fairly drastic. I guess we have to wait and see.

 

[racyrich]

Interesting you mention slowing speeds to increase capacity, as per around West Ham.
One of the other details of the announcement is:

A new alliance with Network Rail to reduce running costs and deliver Right Time operational performance for all stations. The alliance includes a commitment from National Express to help finance a joint plan to improve line speeds to reduce journey times further.

I've often pondered on how to increase the line speed to rival the GE line and generally concluded that gains to be made increasing from 75 to 90 between each of the fixed restrictions (Pitsea, Laindon up, possibly West Horndon as it's on a curve) were trivial. In fact the only decent long run would be from West Horndon to Barking, but now if everything's to stop at Upminster that's irrelevant anyway. I don't think there's more than 2 minutes in total to be had between Leigh and Barking. Hardly worth the expense.
Speeding up the turnouts for the branch from Upminster would help, get things out of the way quicker. Similarly the 5mph crawl in and out of East Ham depot.

 

[3141]

If I had treated your company the way NX did with DFT regarding East Coast I very much doubt you would want to welcome me back as a future partner anytime soon

You said: “surprising what money, influence and big business can do to the right peoples memories when it matters”. You’re suggesting that National Express was able to bid for the Essex Thameside franchise by means of activities that are probably corrupt.

However, NX weren’t in breach of contract with East Coast. The company they’d set up to run it was a separate entity. Perhaps there are some people in the DfT who’d rather not deal with NX, the way you suggest I’d feel if my company had been treated as the DfT was over East Coast, but they will know that if NX applies for pre-qualification and meets the criteria to bid for a franchise, then their feelings aren’t sufficient justification for refusing to put it on the short list. The DfT certainly won’t want any potential bidder to seek a judicial review as to why it wasn’t short-listed, unless it can show very clearly that the company concerned didn’t meet the specified requirements.

So what evidence do you have that “what money, influence and big business can do to the right peoples memories when it matters” is how NX got to bid for Essex Thameside?

 

[davetheguard]

SWT have stability, yes, but as smart as c2c? If you're talking about doing the bare minimum, yet hitting all the KPIs then yes, they're pure genius, but that's as far as any smartness with SWT goes, IMHO.

I don't know if you're talking of "smart" in terms of "appearance" or "intelligence", but in terms of the former, I also their EMU's comfortable, modern, and clean-looking.

Perhaps it's something to do with the colour palette chosen; the red seats on a SWT 159 look good, while the blue on a FGW 158 somehow always look slightly tatty.

 

[edwin_m]

I've often pondered on how to increase the line speed to rival the GE line and generally concluded that gains to be made increasing from 75 to 90 between each of the fixed restrictions (Pitsea, Laindon up, possibly West Horndon as it's on a curve) were trivial.

I was involved in a project to look at this a few years ago and from what I remember the savings were not dramatic but were noticeable. As you say inserting more stops at the London end does the opposite, but raising speeds elsewhere might make it easier to sell this to punters by keeping end-to-end journeys about the same.

 

[racyrich]

I was involved in a project to look at this a few years ago and from what I remember the savings were not dramatic but were noticeable. As you say inserting more stops at the London end does the opposite, but raising speeds elsewhere might make it easier to sell this to punters by keeping end-to-end journeys about the same.

An interesting project. Every mile increased from 75 to 90 saves 8 seconds. 25 miles from Leigh to Barking, maybe 20 of them unrestricted or not usual station stops. So 160 secs to save. Like you say, makes up for an extra stop.
Did you go through the process of assigning a value to 3 mins of a commuter's time, multiplied by 30 train loads of 1000 people? How much is a minute worth? If I say the 3 mins is worth £1 (ie £20/hr - reasonable London average) then it's £30k a day, without adding any value to off-peak and return journeys' time savings. 250 working days a year = £7.5m. I wonder what the upfront and ongoing maintenance increment is for the linespeed increase.

 

[Essexman]

Forty seconds of Upminster passengers' time could be saved if eastbound 8 coach trains didn't have to stop at the far end of the platform, meaning that for most peak trains everyone has to walk an extra 4 coach lengths to the main steps. This is a consequence of driver only operation and something to do with restricticted visibility on the platform.

 

[Carlisle]

However, NX weren’t in breach of contract with East Coast. The company they’d set up to run it was a separate entity.

I can't ever recall it being confirmed that NX's legal position around that whole debacle turned out to be totally watertight compared to the DFTs,just the whole thing being a rather large grey area for both parties to trade insults and threats etc ,but if you know different I am happy to be corrected

 

[edwin_m]

An interesting project. Every mile increased from 75 to 90 saves 8 seconds. 25 miles from Leigh to Barking, maybe 20 of them unrestricted or not usual station stops. So 160 secs to save. Like you say, makes up for an extra stop.
Did you go through the process of assigning a value to 3 mins of a commuter's time, multiplied by 30 train loads of 1000 people? How much is a minute worth? If I say the 3 mins is worth £1 (ie £20/hr - reasonable London average) then it's £30k a day, without adding any value to off-peak and return journeys' time savings. 250 working days a year = £7.5m. I wonder what the upfront and ongoing maintenance increment is for the linespeed increase.

We were only looking at journey times - it was for others to determine what that meant in terms of demand and revenue.