National Grid warns of possible blackouts

[D365]

I’m seeing reports, albeit only on Twitter, that National Grid are projecting electricity generation and import shortfalls tomorrow between 5 and 7pm.

If grid frequency falls below tolerable levels, could we end up with another night like 9th August 2019 with electric traction shutting down and refusing to work?

Given that it appears National Grid has [at least] 24 hours advance warning, I would hope not.

I would also hope that the Desiro fleet engineers have sufficient contingency in place this time round.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I've been offered the "£30 to reduce your usage" thing for tomorrow evening.

Not sure I'll manage to reduce it much to be honest, it's not high anyway, though I might use it as an excuse for a takeaway rather than putting the oven on

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Great to know that everything is working fine:

Firefox detected an issue and did not continue to www.powercut105.com. The web site is either misconfigured or your computer clock is set to the wrong time.
It’s likely the web site’s certificate is expired, which prevents Firefox from connecting securely. If you visit this site, attackers could try to steal information like your passwords, emails, or credit card details.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Great to know that everything is working fine:

That's an unofficial site. I just clicked through the error; not much someone can do with my postcode alone.

 

[WAB]

That's an unofficial site. I just clicked through the error; not much someone can do with my postcode alone.

The website is official, and directed to by the operators. The security cert expired yesterday hence the warning. Unlikely to be unsafe!

 

[Mat17]

Too many Christmas lights perhaps?

 

[JB_B]

I’m seeing reports, albeit only on Twitter, that National Grid are projecting electricity generation and import shortfalls tomorrow between 5 and 7pm.

If grid frequency falls below tolerable levels, could we end up with another night like 9th August 2019 with electric traction shutting down and refusing to work?

I'd have thought that software fixes would prevent a repeat of the Aug 2019 debacle? ( In the hopefully very unlikely event of a similar frequency drop.)

Train-knackering software design blunder discovered after lightning sparked Thameslink megadelay

Official reports reveal 'as designed but not intended' snafu

www.theregister.com

 

[kkong]

I’m seeing reports, albeit only on Twitter, that National Grid are projecting electricity generation and import shortfalls tomorrow between 5 and 7pm.

If grid frequency falls below tolerable levels, could we end up with another night like 9th August 2019 with electric traction shutting down and refusing to work?

It is only a test of the Demand Flexibility Service.

System Warnings | BMRS

www.bmreports.com

2022-12-11 16:21
From: Power System Manager
National Grid Electricity Control Centre NATIONAL GRID NOTIFICATION - DEMAND FLEXIBILTY SERVICE.
DFS Tests have been instructed for tomorrow Monday 12/12/2022 between 17:00 and 19:00. Times in GMT The maximum demand reduction volume during this period is 155 MW. This will be System Tagged. For full details see the ESO Data Portal at https://data.nationalgrideso.com/data-groups/dfs. Notification Issued at 16:25 hours on 11/12/2022. Issued by Antony Wicks National Grid Electricity National Control Centre.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Too many Christmas lights perhaps?

Too many kettles and ovens going on and electric heating in use (this could be reduced by educating people on how it is often cheaper to heat the whole house on gas than one room on electric!)

A string of LED Christmas lights draws next to nothing. You can run that for 3-4 days on two AAs.

 

[Wyrleybart]

I’m seeing reports, albeit only on Twitter, that National Grid are projecting electricity generation and import shortfalls tomorrow between 5 and 7pm.

If grid frequency falls below tolerable levels, could we end up with another night like 9th August 2019 with electric traction shutting down and refusing to work?

Strangely, driving M6 northbound J13-J14 on Friday I noticed the two wind turbines in between the M6 and the WCML were stationary. although it was bright and clear it was about -1c and I thought they would be helping out with providing elleccy. More recently it has been foggy and overcast with no wind. Not the kind of weather for renewables

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Strangely, driving M6 northbound J13-J14 on Friday I noticed the two wind turbines in between the M6 and the WCML were stationary. although it was bright and clear it was about -1c and I thought they would be helping out with providing elleccy. More recently it has been foggy and overcast with no wind. Not the kind of weather for renewables

High depression over the UK means its windless so turbines don't work very well in those conditions. Oh any by the way they need power to keep them warm in the cold weather so they are ready to whirr into action when the wind comes back

 

[snowball]

High depression over the UK means its windless so turbines don't work very well in those conditions.

I assume you mean high pressure. A depression is low pressure.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I assume you mean high pressure. A depression is low pressure.

Yoiks thanks for pointing out my error

 

[birchesgreen]

Apparently i'm down on the rota for early Friday evening and Saturday morning AND evening. Well thats nice, just what you want after working all week spending a good chunk of your weekend in the dark and freezing cold.

Mind you nothing official, if it wasn't for this thread i wouldn't know.

 

[DelayRepay]

Apparently i'm down on the rota for early Friday evening and Saturday morning AND evening. Well thats nice, just what you want after working all week spending a good chunk of your weekend in the dark and freezing cold.

Mind you nothing official, if it wasn't for this thread i wouldn't know.

I'm down for Friday mornings (not a huge issue, I will go into the office) and Saturday afternoons (again not a huge issue as I can find somewhere to go out to). Could be worse!

 

[AM9]

I'm down for Friday mornings (not a huge issue, I will go into the office) and Saturday afternoons (again not a huge issue as I can find somewhere to go out to). Could be worse!

Yes, there's plenty worse than level 1 load shedding, - all the way to level 18, I e. Total shutdown. See the document liked here https://assets.publishing.service.g...attachment_data/file/995049/esec-guidance.pdf , it's a sobering read but deep down, good to know that if it became really necessary, there is a plan.
Area A here and according to the above document above, a level 1 would be:
Monday 00:30-03:30
Wednesday 15:30-18:30
Sunday 00:30-03-30
Apart from having to reset clocks. I can live with that.

 

[DelayRepay]

Yes, there's plenty worse than level 1 load shedding, - all the way to level 18, I e. Total shutdown. See the document liked here https://assets.publishing.service.g...attachment_data/file/995049/esec-guidance.pdf , it's a sobering read but deep down, good to know that if it became really necessary, there is a plan.

Yes, it's sobering to see how the black blocks gradually replace the white ones, until we get to Level 18 where everyone is disconnected indefinitely. I would suggest somewhere around Level 10 is where we'd see rioting and looting kick in. In reality though I would not expect us to need to go beyond Level 2 or 3.

I know someone who lives in Hillsborough, Sheffield and they've had a tough week without gas. They still had electric but were being asked to minimise consumption to avoid putting too much pressure on the local electricity distribution network. I dread to think how bad it would be to have no power for a significant part of the week, bearing in mind that most central heating won't work without electricity due to the pumps.

For those who are signed up for the 'getting paid to reduce consumption' schemes, they appear to be running again this evening - times vary by supplier.

 

[WAB]

Apparently i'm down on the rota for early Friday evening and Saturday morning AND evening. Well thats nice, just what you want after working all week spending a good chunk of your weekend in the dark and freezing cold.

Mind you nothing official, if it wasn't for this thread i wouldn't know.

It’s designed so that more people have power cuts on Sundays, and the rest of the slots are concentrated in one half of the week to minimise disruption to businesses.

Yes, there's plenty worse than level 1 load shedding, - all the way to level 18, I e. Total shutdown. See the document liked here https://assets.publishing.service.g...attachment_data/file/995049/esec-guidance.pdf , it's a sobering read but deep down, good to know that if it became really necessary, there is a plan.
Area A here and according to the above document above, a level 1 would be:
Monday 00:30-03:30
Wednesday 15:30-18:30
Sunday 00:30-03-30
Apart from having to reset clocks. I can live with that.

Lucky sod - some of us are down for 4 in level 1, 3 during the day…

 

[Yew]

It’s designed so that more people have power cuts on Sundays, and the rest of the slots are concentrated in one half of the week to minimise disruption to businesses.

Aha, It doesn't matter if we're freezing in the dark; as long as Ladbrokes can still prey on the vulnerable.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Apparently i'm down on the rota for early Friday evening and Saturday morning AND evening. Well thats nice, just what you want after working all week spending a good chunk of your weekend in the dark and freezing cold.

Mind you nothing official, if it wasn't for this thread i wouldn't know.

Yeah, same. I think giving one group the Friday and Saturday evening prime-time is a bit unfair, is it technically possible to split more granularly, i.e. do hour long blocks in that period and the similar Saturday night? That would be fairer.

I know someone who lives in Hillsborough, Sheffield and they've had a tough week without gas. They still had electric but were being asked to minimise consumption to avoid putting too much pressure on the local electricity distribution network. I dread to think how bad it would be to have no power for a significant part of the week, bearing in mind that most central heating won't work without electricity due to the pumps.

I am thinking about getting a leisure battery and an inverter so I can still use my gas heating if this escalates...would be fairly easy to change the fused spur to a plug to enable it being plugged into something else.

 

[birchesgreen]

Aha, It doesn't matter if we're freezing in the dark; as long as Ladbrokes can still prey on the vulnerable.

Yes priorities sir!

 

[ChrisC]

Yeah, same. I think giving one group the Friday and Saturday evening prime-time is a bit unfair, is it technically possible to split more granularly, i.e. do hour long blocks in that period and the similar Saturday night? That would be fairer.

Block S here and mine seems to be very much a weekend thing. Village location so although few businesses affected the Saturday times will really hit the village pub. The 2 Saturday times with only 3 hours between does seem a bit unfair.
Friday 3.30am - 6.30am
Saturday 12.30pm - 3.30pm
Saturday 6.30pm - 9.30pm
Sunday 3.30pm - 6.30pm

 

[Mat17]

Too many kettles and ovens going on and electric heating in use (this could be reduced by educating people on how it is often cheaper to heat the whole house on gas than one room on electric!)

A string of LED Christmas lights draws next to nothing. You can run that for 3-4 days on two AAs.

True kettles use a lot.

I just use my coal fire, it heats the whole house up, no need to use any gas. I rarely put the heating on.

 

[alxndr]

Block S here and mine seems to be very much a weekend thing. Village location so although few businesses affected the Saturday times will really hit the village pub. The 2 Saturday times with only 3 hours between does seem a bit unfair.
Friday 3.30am - 6.30am
Saturday 12.30pm - 3.30pm
Saturday 6.30pm - 9.30pm
Sunday 3.30pm - 6.30pm

I'm on the same.

Saturday does seem a bit rough, with only 3 hours to cook and heat the house in.

 

[WAB]

Yeah, same. I think giving one group the Friday and Saturday evening prime-time is a bit unfair, is it technically possible to split more granularly, i.e. do hour long blocks in that period and the similar Saturday night? That would be fairer.

The process of switching load blocks on and off is a bit involved, I am led to believe, so hour blocks may not be feasible. Times may vary by up to one hour either way if they're at a higher load-shedding level. I think the allocations do become a bit fairer as the load shedding level increases, but the load blocks assigned to Thurs/Fri/Sat will continue to have it worse than the load blocks assigned to Mon/Tues/Weds at the lower levels which we are most likely to have.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I wonder here if the Government should give serious thought to supplying UPSs* to vulnerable people (people who would get winter heating allowance) and fitting them so their boiler can continue to operate for the three hours? The loss of heating is the main danger here for such people - it genuinely may result in avoidable deaths, but running the control circuitry and pump for 3 hours doesn't draw huge amounts of power.

Another concern I have is of people buying those ten quid square camping stoves and setting their house on fire. They are of a flawed design which has actually been banned outright in Australia. If you use a large pan (e.g. a household frying pan rather than a smaller camping type) and it extends over the canister side, that can overheat the canister and cause an explosion. They're also quite flimsy meaning leaks are common, again leading to tragedy. Perhaps there needs to be an education campaign about those things or even ban them from sale here too. Also if you have an old Camping Gaz pierceable canister type in the garage you haven't used for years it's likely the seals will have perished and so it'll leak and potentially cause a fire or explosion.

There will also be issues for people who have an overnight outage and run storage heaters which won't charge fully, the main bad effect of which will be them increasing demand by using convector heaters instead. Probably would make sense to extend the Economy 7 hours into other low-usage times of day to allow such heaters to still recharge.

* Uninterruptible Power Supply, basically a device with a socket that supplies it from the mains and charges itself, but switches to battery supply without any outage at all if the mains goes out. Commonly used for servers.

 

[AM9]

I wonder here if the Government should give serious thought to supplying UPSs* to vulnerable people (people who would get winter heating allowance) and fitting them so their boiler can continue to operate for the three hours? The loss of heating is the main danger here for such people - it genuinely may result in avoidable deaths, but running the control circuitry and pump for 3 hours doesn't draw huge amounts of power.

The problem with such a roll out is that it mightencourage others who don't have such a need, and undermine the effectiveness of the power interruption by continuing to draw gas that planning might have reckoned would be saved.

Clearly the areas must be ones that can be individually switched remotely, and presumably rural areas will be geographically larger than urban ones, but does anyboy know typically what size they can be? For some it might be useful to know where to move to in case of a large family or even running a childs nersery etc..

 

[skyhigh]

Interestingly, I don't have a postcode area identifier. On my bill it simply says "Postcode area alpha identifier: NA"

As I live on a new build estate, my DNO isn't the normal one for the area but a much smaller one who specialises in supplies to new estates. The 105 website linked above also won't give me the identifier. So if blackouts do occur according to that schedule, I wonder what will happen to us?

 

[AM9]

Interestingly, I don't have a postcode area identifier. On my bill it simply says "Postcode area alpha identifier: NA"

As I live on a new build estate, my DNO isn't the normal one for the area but a much smaller one who specialises in supplies to new estates. The 105 website linked above also won't give me the identifier. So if blackouts do occur according to that schedule, I wonder what will happen to us?

If it gets that bad your area will probably be assigned one based on the switching arrangements in your region. You are entitled to know which though in order that you can at least plan for disconnections that might happen.

 

[Simon11]

Area A here and according to the above document above, a level 1 would be:
Monday 00:30-03:30
Wednesday 15:30-18:30
Sunday 00:30-03-30

I am in the same block and while, I think we are very lucky it does appear to be unfair to people having more blocks between important times.

Apart from having to 'hit the pub' on a Wednesday afternoon if needed, this won't make any difference to us.

I also can't understand why they would need to cut power between 00:30-03:30 considering power usage if very low at this time of the day?