New 4-tier system for England

[Skimpot flyer]

Sky News’ app states that in Tier 4

‘Stay at home - this will be put into law so fines will apply if you do not have a relevant excuse’

Does anyone know if the bit in bold has actually happened?

 

[Cdd89]

Though of course, knowing them, they'll end up bringing in a Tier 5...

I’d almost bet my house on outdoor masks I’m afraid. It’s one of very few (ineffective) remaining things they can do and there doesn’t seem to be much resistance in other places it’s happened.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

To be fair, same... I thought I heard one of the journalists at the press conference the other day asking if we would need a tier 4+ (*insert expletive*) and let's just hope that extended use of face coverings doesn't become a part of that (on which note, I see that Costco has now stated that entry is only with face coverings and if you are exempt you must wear a face shield or you cannot come in).

The only other thing I could imagine a Tier 4+ or 5 including would be schools closing, but I can't imagine the inequality of that across the country would be ideal.

Anyone on twitter (or at least the things that come up on my feed anyway) will have seen a huge amount of memes and jokes over the last week about the tier system and how we're going to wake up one day and be in Tier 12 with increasingly ridiculous measures - I think the ridiculousness of the situation is starting to somewhat get across to people...

And so the marginalisation begins...
Private businesses now excluding the ‘unclean’ people with hidden conditions
Even the ardent mask enthusiasts should wake up and hear those alarm bells clanging loudly...

 

[BJames]

I’d almost bet my house on outdoor masks I’m afraid. It’s one of very few (ineffective) remaining things they can do and there doesn’t seem to be much resistance in other places it’s happened.

I won't start this debate again but I think they will suddenly find a significant increase in the number of people just not wearing them outside. I will be one of them. No point in wearing them outside and I think they'll find support for them will drop if they're mandated in an outdoor setting.

 

[Hadders]

Sky News’ app states that in Tier 4

‘Stay at home - this will be put into law so fines will apply if you do not have a relevant excuse’

Does anyone know if the bit in bold has actually happened?

In Tier 4 the law says you must not leave your home without a 'reasonable excuse'. The list of 'reasonable excuses' includes things like going to work, exercise, meeting one other person outdoors in a public place, visiting your support bubble etc.

 

[devon_metro]

Considering in places like Paris masks were not mandatory if partaking in exercise, e.g. jogging, we might solve the nations obesity crisis by mandating outdoor masks!

I for one would draw the line at outdoor masks. I wear one in a supermarket more because there isn't yet a critical mass who don't, despite concluding that they have limited effectiveness unless we all wear high quality masks and correctly wear/dispose of them.

 

[Richard Scott]

I won't start this debate again but I think they will suddenly find a significant increase in the number of people just not wearing them outside. I will be one of them. No point in wearing them outside and I think they'll find support for them will drop if they're mandated in an outdoor setting.

I will be exempt if that happens. Walked through an indoor shopping centre the other day, not actually been in one since masks came in, and was out of breath within a couple of minutes. Dawdling around a supermarket is one thing but consistent walking is impossible.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

I won't start this debate again but I think they will suddenly find a significant increase in the number of people just not wearing them outside. I will be one of them. No point in wearing them outside and I think they'll find support for them will drop if they're mandated in an outdoor setting.

Nine months ago I would have bet my house on low compliance with mask mandates. I am appalled to say that I think you may be proved wrong. People still wore them in shops when we had outdoor temperatures of 35 degrees. I fear the worst now

 

[Richard Scott]

Nine months ago I would have bet my house on low compliance with mask mandates. I am appalled to say that I think you may be proved wrong. People still wore them in shops when we had outdoor temperatures of 35 degrees. I fear the worst now

My neighbour's son works in the police in Devon, he said Totnes is the place with least mask compliance, to the point the police generally don't bother. When she visited she confirmed was true. Anyone live near/in Totnes?

 

[BJames]

Just seen this:

English regions should go into Covid tier 4 now, scientists say

Fears that highly transmissible variant will be much harder to deal with if tighter rules don’t start till Boxing Day

www.theguardian.com

Skipping the repetitive parts...:

Dr Andrew Preston, reader in microbial pathogenesis at the University of Bath, said: “The situation is fast-moving and requires decisive decision-making. Today, the government has recognised that the situation is continuing to deteriorate in many areas and that tougher restrictions are required if the hope is to contain it.

“With cases rising so quickly, the delay of three critical days – with new tiering not taking effect until Boxing Day – will mean that by then case numbers are going to be much, much higher and as a result much, much more difficult to bring down. If containment is the focus, then unfortunately, the restrictions need to be immediate, despite the fallout this will cause.”

Before the announcement, Christina Pagel, professor of operational research at University College London, said waiting until Boxing Day to put more areas into tier 4 was too slow.

She told Times Radio: “We are in an incredibly dangerous situation … If we just wait and we let it spread to the north, where things are much more under control, then the whole country is on fire and I just feel like we have to stop it now and protect the north from the south, effectively.”

She added: “We’re constantly behind the curve. I think we have to put the whole country in tier 4 today, especially in those tier 2 areas around tier 4 that are just going through the roof. Why are we letting people mix at Christmas? You are just asking for trouble.”

Don't think the government would exactly be helping themselves by introducing this before Christmas Day and banning the mixing which has already been planned less than 24 hours before..!

My neighbour's son works in the police in Devon, he said Totnes is the place with least mask compliance, to the point the police generally don't bother. When she visited she confirmed was true. Anyone live near/in Totnes?

No, but I might have to have a visit if things get bad up in London!

Nine months ago I would have bet my house on low compliance with mask mandates. I am appalled to say that I think you may be proved wrong. People still wore them in shops when we had outdoor temperatures of 35 degrees. I fear the worst now

Let's hope common sense prevails. Although from the fact that some people happily wear them in their cars on their own, I do share your concern!

 

[Cowley]

My neighbour's son works in the police in Devon, he said Totnes is the place with least mask compliance, to the point the police generally don't bother. When she visited she confirmed was true. Anyone live near/in Totnes?

That’s so Totnes and doesn’t surprise me at all. We go down there now and again and the last time I was down there (during the first lockdown) there was a guy with dreadlocks stood in the high street holding a staff with an owl on his shoulder.
Nobody batted an eyelid at this...

 

[SS4]

Considering in places like Paris masks were not mandatory if partaking in exercise, e.g. jogging, we might solve the nations obesity crisis by mandating outdoor masks!

I for one would draw the line at outdoor masks. I wear one in a supermarket more because there isn't yet a critical mass who don't, despite concluding that they have limited effectiveness unless we all wear high quality masks and correctly wear/dispose of them.

Does it matter? Sometimes it's more important to be seen doing something than actually doing something. Of course the danger there is that people use the masks in lieu of more effective means such as distancing

 

[NorthOxonian]

My neighbour's son works in the police in Devon, he said Totnes is the place with least mask compliance, to the point the police generally don't bother. When she visited she confirmed was true. Anyone live near/in Totnes?

No, but I travelled around a lot in October and found lowest compliance in Stroud, which is a similar sort of place to Totnes in many ways.

Highest compliance was on the Isle of Wight (though very few people wore them outdoors). Outdoor usage (and other ways of going beyond the measures) was probably highest in Oxford.

 

[Reliablebeam]

No, but I travelled around a lot in October and found lowest compliance in Stroud, which is a similar sort of place to Totnes in many ways.

Highest compliance was on the Isle of Wight (though very few people wore them outdoors). Outdoor usage (and other ways of going beyond the measures) was probably highest in Oxford.

I've also noted very high 'outdoor' masking in Oxford. In fact I was a bit unimpressed to see this today given how much it's rained - wet face masks, hmm, not great for covid control I would say and in fact not recommended in my workplace!

 

[Pete_uk]

No, but I travelled around a lot in October and found lowest compliance in Stroud, which is a similar sort of place to Totnes in many ways.

Hello from Stroud!
I have noticed that in the past few days since the mutant virus has been doing the rounds there are more people wearing their masks outside.
The newly renovated shopping centre has been busy (very nice to see) with it's small stalls. I've noted about 60% compliance with face masks in there on a Saturday afternoon.
I am surprised that the mask side of things hasn't been ramped up to be honest. But there is time yet!

 

[duncanp]

Regarding the new tiers, how can it be "safe" to put Herefordshire into tier 1 on 19th December, only to have to put it up to tier 2 on 26th December?

Same with Bristol going back into tier 3, after having been moved down into tier 2 only a week earlier.

And I bet the Isle of Wight are really cheesed off about being moved from tier 1 to tier 3, and the same for Cornwall being moved into tier 2.

I really think the government have lost the plot on this one, and the moving of certain areas down the tiers was a token gesture designed to appease MPs, which has now been reversed at the earliest opportunity.

And the new mutant strain of the virus from South Africa will be used as an excuse to moved everyone into tier 4 on December 30th.

 

[Philip]

With vaccination hopefully increasing to 2 million per week by the start of January, is it not too optimistic to think all areas of the UK will be no higher than tier 2 by the end of January? It isn't so much about case numbers, more about hospital admissions and at 2 million doses per week you've vaccinated a fair chunk of those classed as 'vulnerable' after 4 weeks, in addition to the many who will have natural immunity.

Would also tie in with the review every 2 weeks, as the next one is scheduled for the end of December, so we should have a review at the end of January by that logic.

 

[DustyBin]

Regarding the new tiers, how can it be "safe" to put Herefordshire into tier 1 on 19th December, only to have to put it up to tier 2 on 26th December?

Same with Bristol going back into tier 3, after having been moved down into tier 2 only a week earlier.

And I bet the Isle of Wight are really cheesed off about being moved from tier 1 to tier 3, and the same for Cornwall being moved into tier 2.

I really think the government have lost the plot on this one, and the moving of certain areas down the tiers was a token gesture designed to appease MPs, which has now been reversed at the earliest opportunity.

And the new mutant strain of the virus from South Africa will be used as an excuse to moved everyone into tier 4 on December 30th.

You’ve hit the nail on the head there! The late decision to move areas from tiers 1 and 2 to 3 or 4 has ensured maximum damage to hospitality in those areas (although other businesses will obviously suffer too). More money down the drain, literally....

The latest strain from South Africa may well be used as an excuse for full lockdown, along with our (allegedly) ‘native’ mutation I’m hearing scare stories about how it targets the young and defeats any natural immunity etc. The problem is that at this stage the government and their advisors can pretty much do as they please, I’m not convinced there will be any push back from the general population. I thought there would have been a long time ago but I’ll admit I was wrong there, the majority of people are willing (or even eager) to be subjugated. I really do think we’re past the point of no return now, if the government told us we had to wear a special pink bobble hat over winter to protect us from the virus, the majority would oblige. I mean that literally, that’s where we’re at as I see it.

 

[jtuk]

With vaccination hopefully increasing to 2 million per week by the start of January, is it not too optimistic to think all areas of the UK will be no higher than tier 2 by the end of January? It isn't so much about case numbers, more about hospital admissions and at 2 million doses per week you've vaccinated a fair chunk of those classed as 'vulnerable' after 4 weeks, in addition to the many who will have natural immunity.

Would also tie in with the review every 2 weeks, as the next one is scheduled for the end of December, so we should have a review at the end of January by that logic.

Well, there's not been a case for ANY restrictions since May, but here we are, as long as Hancock/Johnson and the two Dr Dooms can spin things out and avoid the public enquiry, that's what'll happen

 

[duncanp]

I think it is a little optimistic to say that all areas of the UK will be no higher than tier 2 by the end of January.

A lot depends on when the Oxford vaccine is approved, and whether the regulators give approval for the Pfizer vaccine to be given as just one dose instead of two. Apparently one dose of the Pfizer vaccine gives 90% protection and two doses give 95% protection. So the regulators are trying to work out whether vaccinating more people with one dose, albeit at a lower level of protection, would have more of a downward effect on the R rate.

However the whole tier system has to be voted on in parliament by 27th January. I think, or at least I very much hope, that MPs will insist on an exit strategy from all these tiers and lockdowns as a condition on renewing the tier system. Also they should insist on explicit criteria for moving up and down the tiers, otherwise we will have the ridiculous situation, as I said earlier in this thread, where Herefordshire is moved down to tier 1, and then just a week later moved back up to tier 2.

And how we in the West Midlands avoided tier 4 from Boxing Day I don't know. Or maybe the government has got that up its sleeve for New Years Eve, when the hope everyone will be too busy getting sloshed to notice.

 

[DustyBin]

With vaccination hopefully increasing to 2 million per week by the start of January, is it not too optimistic to think all areas of the UK will be no higher than tier 2 by the end of January? It isn't so much about case numbers, more about hospital admissions and at 2 million doses per week you've vaccinated a fair chunk of those classed as 'vulnerable' after 4 weeks, in addition to the many who will have natural immunity.

Would also tie in with the review every 2 weeks, as the next one is scheduled for the end of December, so we should have a review at the end of January by that logic.

Personally I think there’s absolutely no chance of any of that happening, sadly. I think it’s more likely we’ll all be tier 4 by the end of January (or under national lockdown).

 

[Philip]

Well, there's not been a case for ANY restrictions since May, but here we are, as long as Hancock/Johnson and the two Dr Dooms can spin things out and avoid the public enquiry, that's what'll happen

The vast majority of the population would disagree with what you've said about there not being a case for restrictions since May. I don't think there is any point in demonising the leaders and scientists, it doesn't help; the aim to prevent overwhelming the NHS, which is a valid cause. That's why vaccination is now the big hope.

 

[bramling]

I’d almost bet my house on outdoor masks I’m afraid. It’s one of very few (ineffective) remaining things they can do and there doesn’t seem to be much resistance in other places it’s happened.

There *will* be resistance to it. Masks outside is a total red line for me. One of the few pleasures left is simply being able to go for a walk, and I am not having that taken away.

In any case there’s not enough police resource to enforce it, though of course they can get round that with encouraging people to shame others.

 

[philosopher]

Personally I think there’s absolutely no chance of any of that happening, sadly. I think it’s more likely we’ll all be tier 4 by the end of January (or under national lockdown).

I am not expecting London to go out of Tier 4 until mid Feb at the earliest and that I reckon that will be followed by a month of Tier 3.

 

[DustyBin]

The vast majority of the population would disagree with what you've said about there not being a case for restrictions since May. I don't think there is any point in demonising the leaders and scientists, it doesn't help; the aim to prevent overwhelming the NHS, which is a valid cause. That's why vaccination is now the big hope.

You don’t think these people should be held to account? Seriously? At best they’ve failed miserably, at worst they’re lying to us about what’s really going on. The real suffering as a result of their actions is yet to be seen and they absolutely deserve to be demonised, whatever the real truth is.

In regard to restrictions, it’s worth reminding ourselves that they represent an untested and novel response to a pandemic. Whilst we view Sweden for example as going against the grain, all they have actually done is follow traditional epidemiological thinking. Their response has been as un-radical as you can get. The majority of people may well support restrictions but they simply aren’t aware that they are, in effect, taking part in a huge experiment, which isn’t going particularly well. We’ve been led (some would argue by the nose) into this by China, something few seem to realise.

 

[Yew]

The vast majority of the population would disagree with what you've said about there not being a case for restrictions since May. I don't think there is any point in demonising the leaders and scientists, it doesn't help; the aim to prevent overwhelming the NHS, which is a valid cause. That's why vaccination is now the big hope.

It's not about protecting the NHS, it's about 'defeating the virus'; which is quite posssibly illegal, as the PHA mandates the least restrictive measures possible.

 

[Philip]

You don’t think these people should be held to account? Seriously? At best they’ve failed miserably, at worst they’re lying to us about what’s really going on. The real suffering as a result of their actions is yet to be seen and they absolutely deserve to be demonised, whatever the real truth is.

In regard to restrictions, it’s worth reminding ourselves that they represent an untested and novel response to a pandemic. Whilst we view Sweden for example as going against the grain, all they have actually done is follow traditional epidemiological thinking. Their response has been as un-radical as you can get. The majority of people may well support restrictions but they simply aren’t aware that they are, in effect, taking part in a huge experiment, which isn’t going particularly well. We’ve been led (some would argue by the nose) into this by China, something few seem to realise.

They haven't handled things well no, but this situation is unprecedented so everything is experimentation. They're damned if they do or they don't. Following the Sweden model may have led to an NHS catastrophe. I don't think it helps, or is accurate, to suggest that these leaders have some disturbed agenda to exert authoritarianism and deny people freedoms, as some have suggested at times. I believe the aim has always been to protect the health service. That is why progress in vaccination will lead to easing/lifting in restrictions.

I think this assertion of being in tier 4 until March/April is pessimistic nonsense btw. The government know the damage it will cause, as soon as vaccination starts leading to a reduction in hospital admissions, they will be very quick to ease restrictions.

 

[bramling]

You don’t think these people should be held to account? Seriously? At best they’ve failed miserably, at worst they’re lying to us about what’s really going on. The real suffering as a result of their actions is yet to be seen and they absolutely deserve to be demonised, whatever the real truth is.

In regard to restrictions, it’s worth reminding ourselves that they represent an untested and novel response to a pandemic. Whilst we view Sweden for example as going against the grain, all they have actually done is follow traditional epidemiological thinking. Their response has been as un-radical as you can get. The majority of people may well support restrictions but they simply aren’t aware that they are, in effect, taking part in a huge experiment, which isn’t going particularly well. We’ve been led (some would argue by the nose) into this by China, something few seem to realise.

Lockdown was one thing last March when time needed to be bought to get the house in order, but it’s completely unacceptable a year down the line.

They haven't handled things well no, but this situation is unprecedented so everything is experimentation. They're damned if they do or they don't. Following the Sweden model may have led to an NHS catastrophe. I don't think it helps, or is accurate, to suggest that these leaders have some disturbed agenda to exert authoritarianism and deny people freedoms, as some have suggested at times. I believe the aim has always been to protect the health service. That is why progress in vaccination will lead to easing/lifting in restrictions.

I think these assertions of being in tier 4 until March/April are pessimistic nonsense btw. The government know the damage it will cause, as soon as vaccination starts leading to a reduction in hospital admissions, they will be very quick to ease restrictions.

Why do you think the furlough scheme has been extended to April? There’s a clue there.

 

[Richard Scott]

They haven't handled things well no, but this situation is unprecedented so everything is experimentation. They're damned if they do or they don't. Following the Sweden model may have led to an NHS catastrophe. I don't think it helps, or is accurate, to suggest that these leaders have some disturbed agenda to exert authoritarianism and deny people freedoms, as some have suggested at times. I believe the aim has always been to protect the health service. That is why progress in vaccination will lead to easing/lifting in restrictions.

I think these assertions of being in tier 4 until March/April are pessimistic nonsense btw. The government know the damage it will cause, as soon as vaccination starts leading to a reduction in hospital admissions, they will be very quick to ease restrictions.

Following the Sweden model may not have led to NHS catastrophe. Likewise doubt they started out with the desire to exert authoritarianism but there actions and reluctance to admit things had changed has led politicians down that route.

 

[Philip]

Lockdown was one thing last March when time needed to be bought to get the house in order, but it’s completely unacceptable a year down the line.


Why do you think the furlough scheme has been extended to April? There’s a clue there.

They have to plan for a worst case scenario as an insurance, but that very much is a worst case scenario and so far all the signs are that won't happen, because vaccination is currently going ok and appears very effective.