New 4-tier system for England

[Mojo]

If their data is systematically biased, then there's only so much weighting can fix. They will weight for things like age, politics, and region, but if they don't weight for working from home despite people like that being disproportionately represented, their polls could still be off by a long way.

I do YouGov surveys regularly and have never been asked what I think about the restrictions. Wonder if that’s because when asked I always answer that I’m not worried about catching Coronavirus.

 

[adc82140]

A simple "thank you for your advice, officer, I'm complying with the law but I'll be sure to bear what you say in mind" will suffice. They can say or do no more after that.

 

[Bantamzen]

I do YouGov surveys regularly and have never been asked what I think about the restrictions. Wonder if that’s because when asked I always answer that I’m not worried about catching Coronavirus.

I used to do them too, and I did get the impression that some were, well targeted at certain audiences. Now that might sound cynical, but we have regular surveys in the bit of the public sector I am in, and it is surprising (or maybe not) how often certain sensitive questions were very carefully worded. Just saying like....

 

[Richard Scott]

I used to do them too, and I did get the impression that some were, well targeted at certain audiences. Now that might sound cynical, but we have regular surveys in the bit of the public sector I am in, and it is surprising (or maybe not) how often certain sensitive questions were very carefully worded. Just saying like....

Just completed a survey (not a yougov one) and was multiple choice but my actual opinion wasn't one of the choices so easy to make things skewed.

 

[adc82140]

Bart Simpson: Homer, I'll trade you this delicious door stop for your crummy old Danish.

Homer Simpson: Done and done!

Just about sums up leading questions in surveys.

 

[Bantamzen]

Taken from YouGov's own blurb:

YouGov: Data and market research that truly reflects reality. /Research Reality.

YouGov is an international research, data and analytics group, providing highest quality brand tracking, brand health analysis, audience profiling, audience intelligence, and market research.

mena.yougov.com

Audience segmentation and targeting tool

YouGov Profiles makes it simple to find and understand the audience that matters most to you. It gives you the power to build and customise a portrait of your consumers' entire world with unrivaled granularity.

Profiles is powered by the world's largest connected data set - the YouGov Cube - which holds hundreds of thousands of data points, collected from YouGov panelists across 44 countries.

Profiles holds X data variables about YouGov panelists in MENA enabling you to gauge information you never knew about your audience to plan and activate the strongest campaigns against your objectives.

So in all honestly its not just about targeting questions, but profiling users to get "the right ones".

 

[Skimpot flyer]

I think Sunak has probably put himself out of the running by spaffing half a billion quid on subsidised troughing - it's increasingly looking like this was a waste of money, and the fact that cases increased soon afterwards and the hospitality industry was given another kicking makes the justification of supporting that industry look increasingly untenable.

Suspect the next PM will be someone who hasn't been involved with and tainted by this whole situation. Javid would be a likely contender.

Desmond Swayne would get my vote.
But we won’t get one, and he’s unlikely to stand

What people say they want and what they actually do are getting ever further apart in this situation.

Indeed. I suspect what the ‘57%’ want is for the Christmas relaxation to be scrapped for other people, so they themselves can sneakily travel at lower risk

 

[NorthOxonian]

Desmond Swayne would get my vote.
But we won’t get one, and he’s unlikely to stand


Indeed. I suspect what the ‘57%’ want is for the Christmas relaxation to be scrapped for other people, so they themselves can sneakily travel at lower risk

I wouldn't be so sure. Mark Harper stood last time, and I would imagine he'd stand again. He may not be quite as flamboyant as Swayne, but I think his more understated approach comes across well.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Anybody in Cornwall or know much about how Tier One has gone down there? Have infection rates shot, or even crept up?

Case rates crept up a little but they still 2nd lowest after Isle of Wight. Interesting Dorset which is Tier 2 is only marginally worse than Cornwall so they must be a contender for Tier 1 but with Exeter on the doorstep they will probably use that as reason not to change it.

Edit: And right on cue, Drakeford is now talking about "grim choices":

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55313964

Case rates fell in all but one area yesterday and some areas have negligible infections he needs to adopt the Scottish approach

 

[marty1977]

Well Christmas is still on

Covid rules still to be relaxed over Christmas in UK

But details are yet to be confirmed on whether advice on household mixing will be toughened.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[rcro]

I wouldn't be so sure. Mark Harper stood last time, and I would imagine he'd stand again. He may not be quite as flamboyant as Swayne, but I think his more understated approach comes across well.

Being about as close to “forester” as any outsider can be - you’re the first person in 15 years that has had even a single good word to say about him!

I’m probably more “pro” lockdown than most who have posted here - and it was obviously going to be the case that infection rates would rise without lockdown immediately before Christmas - so either lockdown at start of December or accept the numbers won’t look good. They didn’t take option 1, so have to do the latter.

Politically, any u turn now will not be forgotten - and will be career ending. For all the Drakeford bashing, I *think* he is the most principled of our great leaders and would stand by his previous promise. Sturgeon needs popularity ahead of the next elections (read independence vote...) and Boris et al are running scared. I would be amazed, and very disappointed, if any *in power* had genuine intent to cancel Christmas this late. I hope my hat remains uneaten into next year!

 

[adc82140]

Desmond Swayne would get my vote.

He won't stand. I've asked him. He is content to be in the backbench "awkward squad" challenging the government.

 

[joncombe]

Well Christmas is still on

Covid rules still to be relaxed over Christmas in UK

But details are yet to be confirmed on whether advice on household mixing will be toughened.

www.bbc.co.uk

Well for now. We'll see. I think SAGE are in a spin because the Government is ignoring their desire to cancel Christmas so I expect Chris Whitty to be busy producing some more graphs to scare Boris with in the hope of forcing a change. Remember the graphs used to justify the 2nd lockdown were later found to be "out of date and over-stated deaths" (see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54831334). Labour is also continuing to push for it.

 

[bramling]

Indeed. I suspect what the ‘57%’ want is for the Christmas relaxation to be scrapped for other people, so they themselves can sneakily travel at lower risk

I’d say that’s pretty much spot-on.

Well for now. We'll see. I think SAGE are in a spin because the Government is ignoring their desire to cancel Christmas so I expect Chris Whitty to be busy producing some more graphs to scare Boris with in the hope of forcing a change. Remember the graphs used to justify the 2nd lockdown were later found to be "out of date and over-stated deaths" (see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54831334). Labour is also continuing to push for it.

We’ve seen a similar pattern before. Sage stir things up. Boris or someone else says they’re not changing course. Dialogue with Drakeford and Sturgeon. Khan opens his mouth. Ferguson, Whitty or someone else stirs things up more. U-turn follows.

I’d say the fact we’ve had a denial of a change makes it *more* likely based on past experience.

 

[adc82140]

I’d say that’s pretty much spot-on.



We’ve seen a similar pattern before. Sage stir things up. Boris or someone else says they’re not changing course. Dialogue with Drakeford and Sturgeon. Khan opens his mouth. Ferguson, Whitty or someone else stirs things up more. U-turn follows.

I’d say the fact we’ve had a denial of a change makes it *more* likely based on past experience.

Time is fleeting though. It's now 6 days till the Xmas relaxation. If they acted tomorrow (which they won't- U turns take time to spin) it'd be 5 days. I really don't think changing the rules with hours to go would be well received by the public. The advice may change, we'll hear much more about granny killing, but the rules won't.

In any case if according to that YouGov poll 57% of people were going to isolate themselves for Christmas, what is there to get in such a tizzy about.

 

[Crossover]

Time is fleeting though. It's now 6 days till the Xmas relaxation. If they acted tomorrow (which they won't- U turns take time to spin) it'd be 5 days. I really don't think changing the rules with hours to go would be well received by the public. The advice may change, we'll hear much more about granny killing, but the rules won't.

Maybe, but for some areas, including ours, the Asian/Pakistani communities were stuffed over within hours of their Eid celebrations...

 

[Bantamzen]

Maybe, but for some areas, including ours, the Asian/Pakistani communities were stuffed over within hours of their Eid celebrations...

Exactly, I wouldn't be surprised if BoJo cancelled Christmas at 8pm on Christmas Eve.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Time is fleeting though. It's now 6 days till the Xmas relaxation. If they acted tomorrow (which they won't- U turns take time to spin) it'd be 5 days. I really don't think changing the rules with hours to go would be well received by the public. The advice may change, we'll hear much more about granny killing, but the rules won't.

In any case if according to that YouGov poll 57% of people were going to isolate themselves for Christmas, what is there to get in such a tizzy about.

Aint going to be any U Turn but you can hear in ministers tones they've dialled up the rhetoric about behaving and minimising contact at every opportunity so if it all goes pear shaped it will be the people that didn't behave properly wot did it when lockdown 3 comes.

 

[hwl]

Aint going to be any U Turn but you can hear in ministers tones they've dialled up the rhetoric about behaving and minimising contact at every opportunity so if it all goes pear shaped it will be the people that didn't behave properly wot did it when lockdown 3 comes.

Or rather "if when it all goes pear shaped", most people have now been warned by this performance so the governments can feel they have done their bit in eventual blame shifting.

It looks like Tier 2 at this time of year equates to slow growth but Tier 3 to slow decline and Tier 4 (or not really lockdown 2.0 as construction, manufacturing, schools and some retail open) to moderate decline, hence they have the option of perpetual Tier 3 and mass local testing in hotspots.

The cases rates for the traditional human coronaviruses (i.e. not SARS, MERS or covid) are very seasonally related and worst in winter hence basing Christmas thinking on case rates with October / November weather and not expecting them to get worse in Dec-Feb is possibly an oops moment

 

[MikeWM]

Or rather "if when it all goes pear shaped", most people have now been warned by this performance so the governments can feel they have done their bit in eventual blame shifting.

May be worth pointing out that it didn't go 'pear shaped' in large parts of the USA after Thanksgiving. In some parts there was a small rise, in other places declines continued on a normal epidemic curve. Almost as if there was a virus going around that was going to do its thing anyway and NPIs have little or no effect...

It looks like Tier 2 at this time of year equates to slow growth but Tier 3 to slow decline and Tier 4 (or not really lockdown 2.0 as construction, manufacturing, schools and some retail open) to moderate decline, hence they have the option of perpetual Tier 3 and mass local testing in hotspots.

But the 'Tier 4' we had in November ended up with large increases of reported cases between the start and end in London, East Cambridgeshire, and other places. Almost as if there was a virus going around that was going to do its thing anyway and NPIs have little or no effect...

 

[Freightmaster]

Bart Simpson: Homer, I'll trade you this delicious door stop for your crummy old Danish.

Homer Simpson: Done and done!

Just about sums up leading questions in surveys.

An even better example of government surveys on Yes Prime Minister here:

MARK

 

[Richard Scott]

Politically, any u turn now will not be forgotten - and will be career ending. For all the Drakeford bashing, I *think* he is the most principled of our great leaders and would stand by his previous promise. Sturgeon needs popularity ahead of the next elections (read independence vote...) and Boris et al are running scared. I would be amazed, and very disappointed, if any *in power* had genuine intent to cancel Christmas this late. I hope my hat remains uneaten into next year!

Do you live in Wales? If you do then might not be such a fan of Drakeford, loads of businesses suffering and still have high rate of infections so whatever he's doing is making it worse for everyone. The only consistent thing he's done is be consistently useless. There is no science in his approach at all, he's just making it up. Hasn't learned yet that lockdowns of firebreaks (or what other stupid word he can come up with) don't work.

Or rather "if when it all goes pear shaped", most people have now been warned by this performance so the governments can feel they have done their bit in eventual blame shifting.

When what goes pear shaped? What's been happening for 8 months? We have a seasonal respiratory virus that is circulating. When is the arrogant human race going to realise it cannot be controlled, not by distancing nor by lockdowns. It may slow the rate for a while but it will just carry on afterwards. All this about a vaccine as well, it's going to take a long time for that to have an effect. I am fed up with all these impositions on my life as are many others under this banner of saving lives, well it's not saving mine, just wasting it.

 

[trebor79]

Wasn't today meant to be the first review of the English Tiers?
I wasn't expecting any changes, but there has been no news of even the review having taken place, which is surprising. I thought the legislation required the review to happen?

 

[MDB1images]

I thought the announcement on the new updates on Tiers was due today?
Anyone know what the delay is?

Would be nice to watch a football match in the fresh air thus my interest in this announcement.

 

[ChrisC]

Case rates crept up a little but they still 2nd lowest after Isle of Wight. Interesting Dorset which is Tier 2 is only marginally worse than Cornwall so they must be a contender for Tier 1 but with Exeter on the doorstep they will probably use that as reason not to change it.

Case rates fell in all but one area yesterday and some areas have negligible infections he needs to adopt the Scottish approach

Never quite has low as the Isle of Wight, Cornwall and Dorset but Herefordshire figures have also been consistently low.

 

[P Binnersley]

The review is today. No announcement until tomorrow (leaks excepted).

 

[Jamesrob637]

I suppose Christmas is (the end of) next week and next week only. Tiers continue into the New Year so the current priority is the next 7-12 days.

 

[packermac]

Case rates crept up a little but they still 2nd lowest after Isle of Wight. Interesting Dorset which is Tier 2 is only marginally worse than Cornwall so they must be a contender for Tier 1 but with Exeter on the doorstep they will probably use that as reason not to change it.

Case rates fell in all but one area yesterday and some areas have negligible infections he needs to adopt the Scottish approach

Do not think you will find many in Dorset who expect things to change. Remember Dorset figures are usually separate to Bournemouth Poole and Christchurch (all Dorset of course) where the figures are far higher, but geographically very close, often one end of a bus route.

 

[Wychwood93]

An even better example:

MARK

Excellent!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Now we know why the Welsh numbers have looked like everything was trending in the right direction and my early post #279 was potentially wrong about Drakeford

Across Wales, tomorrow, we will be reporting in the region of 11,000 new positive cases. Full breakdown by local regions are currently being analysed and will be available in tomorrow’s dashboard update.

https://twitter.com/PublicHealthW/status/1339264348871647233