Next Prime Minister

[kermit]

I doubt it - she probably has an even better chance of winning. She is using Donald Trump and Nigel Farage tatics of saying outrageous things to generate publicity and then claiming to be a victim of a smear campaign by the cosy establishment. She is appealing to the UKIP wing of the Tory party who fear the establishment who all supported remain will stitch up a deal to stay in the EU. The more the establishment attack her the higher her ratings will become within in the Tory shire members who voted heavily out.

I fear that you have very neatly and pithily summarised what seems likely to become the defining political tactic of our era. Once they get the hang of the technique, the hard won democratic institutions that safeguard our peace and wellbeing, like ECHR, are torn to shreds, and we are all infinitely poorer. This technique has been developed by Murdoch, Dacre and Desmond, with their ethics-free voice-of-the-people profit wagons, and now like a runaway virus, it has crossed species from media to politicians. It is frightening, and depressing.

 

[Senex]

The more the establishment attack her the higher her ratings will become within in the Tory shire members who voted heavily out.

Is the opposite pole of that Corbyn's refusal to resign as Labour leader, with all the attacks on him simply strengthening the resolve of his Momentum SWP etc supporters to keep him in place? Coupled with his own apparent lack of interest in talking to anyone except his dedicated supporters, as witnessed again at the Durham Miners' Gala today. Great response for "When we elect a Labour government ...", of course -- but how likely is that to happen whilst he remains leader?

 

[backontrack]

Please let Andrea Leadsom be PM; still thinking that after leaving the EU the UK has free access to the single market.

From The Independent:
Speaking to the Times, Ms Leadsom added: “The size of our economy means we will be the key trading partner for the EU, and we have also have 43 years aligning our goods and services. We start with zero tariffs. All we actually need to do is continue as before.”

Asked about the EU imposing tariffs, Ms Leadsom responded: “Why would they do that?” “Once we leave the EU we will be back in control of immigration. People going on holiday or travelling on business or to collaborate on science will be able to do that but the right to reside and the right to work here will be under work permits,” she added.

Let Leadsom first talk about foxhunting and motherhood; and not the EU!

Why? Theresa May probably agrees with her about the single market.

 

[Busaholic]

I doubt it - she probably has an even better chance of winning. She is using Donald Trump and Nigel Farage tatics of saying outrageous things to generate publicity and then claiming to be a victim of a smear campaign by the cosy establishment. She is appealing to the UKIP wing of the Tory party who fear the establishment who all supported remain will stitch up a deal to stay in the EU. The more the establishment attack her the higher her ratings will become within in the Tory shire members who voted heavily out.

Went to have a coffee in Costa this p.m. hoping to get sight of the Daily Mail, knowing they have been her main cheerleaders, along with The Sun (who have apparently now defected to May) and the Express, which is only 'read' by total fruitcakes. On opening it, I was surprised to get to page 15 before there was ANY mention of the contest or the referendum: then I realised why that was, because the Mail were querying the veracity of Leadballoon's maiden Commons speech in 2019 where she apparently claimed to be amongst a small coterie of 'bankers' who 'assisted' Eddie George, then Governor of the Bank of England, after the collapse of Barings Bank. The Mail are a bit late to the party, of course, but Paul Dacre is no fool and knows when the party's over, to mix metaphors. The remainder of page 15 is devoted to Leadsom's failure to produce her tax returns by yesterday, contrasting Theresa May's release of her last four years' returns. Straws in the wind? Haystacks in the hurricane, imo. Can't wait for the Sunday papers.

 

[AM9]

Midnight BBC news:

Leadsom apologises for slur on May about childlessness.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Midnight BBC news:

Leadsom apologises for slur on May about childlessness.

It only took half her own party condemning her...

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Midnight BBC news:

Leadsom apologises for slur on May about childlessness.

By text message rather than face to face...

 

[Western Lord]

There is an interesting constitutional question looming with the present leadership situation. If Leadsom becomes Tory leader she will not have the support of most of her MPs. Corbyn is leader of the opposition but does not have the support of most of his MPs. The Queen is supposed to call on the person who can command a majority in the House to form a government. It would seem that neither party leader would be that person. There is, of course, absolutely no requirement that the PM be the party leader (Churchill wasn't when he became PM in 1940), so maybe the Queen will be advised to ask somebody else (May?) to form a government.

 

[northwichcat]

There is an interesting constitutional question looming with the present leadership situation. If Leadsom becomes Tory leader she will not have the support of most of her MPs. Corbyn is leader of the opposition but does not have the support of most of his MPs. The Queen is supposed to call on the person who can command a majority in the House to form a government. It would seem that neither party leader would be that person. There is, of course, absolutely no requirement that the PM be the party leader (Churchill wasn't when he became PM in 1940), so maybe the Queen will be advised to ask somebody else (May?) to form a government.

If a small number of Conservative MPs leave the party then the Conservative party will no longer have a majority government. David Cameron will have to go to the Queen when he stands down as PM and 'recommend' his successor to the Queen. Following the 2010 election Gordon Brown didn't do that until a coalition had been agreed between the Conservatives and Lib Dems and at that point 'recommended' David Cameron be the next PM. If some Conservative MPs break away from the party on Leadsom's election: http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=132652 could Cameron have to wait until the Conservatives form a pact/coalition before going to see the Queen?

 

[crehld]

If a small number of Conservative MPs leave the party then the Conservative party will no longer have a majority government. David Cameron will have to go to the Queen when he stands down as PM and 'recommend' his successor to the Queen. Following the 2010 election Gordon Brown didn't do that until a coalition had been agreed between the Conservatives and Lib Dems and at that point 'recommended' David Cameron be the next PM. If some Conservative MPs break away from the party on Leadsom's election: http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=132652 could Cameron have to wait until the Conservatives form a pact/coalition before going to see the Queen?

Emerging constitutional convention is that the incumbent PM and government remain in post until such time as a new government is able to be formed and looks likely to hold the confidence of the House of Commons. See the following extracts from the UK Cabinet Manual:

The principles of government formation
2.7 The ability of a government to command
the confidence of the elected House of
Commons is central to its authority to
govern. ... Commanding
the confidence of the House of Commons
is not the same as having a majority or
winning every vote.

2.8 Prime Ministers hold office unless and until
they resign. If the Prime Minister resigns on
behalf of the Government, the Sovereign
will invite the person who appears
most likely to be able to command the
confidence of the House to serve as Prime
Minister and to form a government.

2.9 ... In modern times the
convention has been that the Sovereign
should not be drawn into party politics,
and if there is doubt it is the responsibility
of those involved in the political process,
and in particular the parties represented
in Parliament, to seek to determine and
communicate clearly to the Sovereign who
is best placed to be able to command the
confidence of the House of Commons.
As the Crown’s principal adviser this
responsibility falls especially on the
incumbent Prime Minister, who at the
time of his or her resignation may also
be asked by the Sovereign for a
recommendation on who can best
command the confidence of the House of
Commons in his or her place.

2.10 The application of these principles depends
on the specific circumstances and it remains
a matter for the Prime Minister, as the
Sovereign’s principal adviser, to judge the
appropriate time at which to resign, either
from their individual position as Prime
Minister or on behalf of the government.
Recent examples suggest that previous
Prime Ministers have not offered their
resignations until there was a situation
in which clear advice could*be given to
the Sovereign on who should be asked
to form a government...

 

[Senex]

By text message rather than face to face...

So that's how today's etiquette allows an apology for a major and pretty nasty slur to be made! Or does it just tell us a little more about Andrea Leadsome herself?
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There is an interesting constitutional question looming with the present leadership situation. If Leadsom becomes Tory leader she will not have the support of most of her MPs. Corbyn is leader of the opposition but does not have the support of most of his MPs.

Going by what has emerged so far, there is a difference (though it could well disappear and leave an exact left/right parallel). 172 of Corbyn's MPs have formally voted that they have no confidence in him, so unless they all creep back into line after he wins another leadership election by vrtue of the votes of party members, he does not command the confidence of more than the other 40. But the Tory MPs have allowed two names to go foward to the party without any statement so far that a large block would be willing to serve under one but not the other, so the assumption has to be that if the ghastly Leadsome won on the basis of the hard-line Right vote in the country, the May-supporting MPs would agree to serve and the small but clear majority in HC would continue. If on the other hand it becomes even clearer during the campaign that Leadsome really isn't up to it and is a real hard-liner, then there could be problems ...

Another question concerns the Opposition, which by tradition is surely the largest coherent party after the government party. If Corbyn can claim the support of only his 40 MPs, then does that not means that the ScotNats become Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition?

 

[AlterEgo]

Leadsom is out of the race.

 

[tony_mac]

Well, the BBC are reporting that she is quitting the race anyway.

I don't particularly think she was being deliberately nasty, but as Ken Clarke put it, she has said some stupid things.

 

[northwichcat]

Another question concerns the Opposition, which by tradition is surely the largest coherent party after the government party. If Corbyn can claim the support of only his 40 MPs, then does that not means that the ScotNats become Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition?

Slight complication - the SNP leader isn't in the House of the Commons. If Angus Robertson has the full support of all SNP MPs, is that any different to Tom Watson having the majority of Labour MPs support him?
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Leadsom is out of the race.

Officially a press conference has been called where it's believed Leadsom will stand down.

Would that mean May becomes leader or would it put third place Gove against May or would it mean the contest has to start again?

 

[crehld]

I don't particularly think she was being deliberately nasty, but as Ken Clarke put it, she has said some stupid things.

I don't think she's been deliberately nasty either. But it really does highlight her naivety and lack of experience.

 

[Busaholic]

Yes ! The Labour party members selected the RIGHT candidate !!
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£10 says she isn't ...

I think you owe me a tenner


Let this be a lesson for Labour - it won't be, of course, at least not for the people currently at the top of the party. Now there won't be an election until 2020 at which May will increase the Tory majority. It's all so depressing for a non- right winger.

 

[Class172]

Just watched the live press conference; as expected Andrea Leadsom has withdrawn from the leadership competition.

 

[miami]

So does May take over now, or is there still a wait until September?

 

[crehld]

So does May take over now, or is there still a wait until September?

The chair of the 1922 committee has just said this is to be confirmed later this afternoon after discussions with the relevant parties.

 

[miami]

A leaver near me at work (I'm on a hotdesk) claims that this is the power of the EU - it's the EU that's caused Johnson to not run, caused Gove to not get votes, caused Leadsome to quit and caused Farage to quit.

 

[phoenixcronin]

A leaver near me at work (I'm on a hotdesk) claims that this is the power of the EU - it's the EU that's caused Johnson to not run, caused Gove to not get votes, caused Leadsome to quit and caused Farage to quit.

Don't spend too much time with him, it may start to rub off

 

[crehld]

A leaver near me at work (I'm on a hotdesk) claims that this is the power of the EU - it's the EU that's caused Johnson to not run, caused Gove to not get votes, caused Leadsome to quit and caused Farage to quit.

Your colleague clearly knows not what they are on about.

 

[Geezertronic]

Out of all the candidates, there was only ever the one option - and May won't trigger Article 50 in a month of Sundays

 

[richw]

Out of all the candidates, there was only ever the one option - and May won't trigger Article 50 in a month of Sundays

From her BBC profile

When she would trigger Article 50: Would not push the button to take Britain out of the EU before the end of 2016, to give Britain time to "finalise" its negotiating stance.

 

[Geezertronic]

To be honest, since Cameron shirked the responsibility I don't think even Corbyn would "press the button"

 

[Groningen]

In one dutch newspaper Theresa May is called a iceenqueen.

 

[Clip]

Went to have a coffee in Costa this p.m. hoping to get sight of the Daily Mail, knowing they have been her main cheerleaders, along with The Sun (who have apparently now defected to May) and the Express, which is only 'read' by total fruitcakes. On opening it, I was surprised to get to page 15 before there was ANY mention of the contest or the referendum: then I realised why that was, because the Mail were querying the veracity of Leadballoon's maiden Commons speech in 2019 where she apparently claimed to be amongst a small coterie of 'bankers' who 'assisted' Eddie George, then Governor of the Bank of England, after the collapse of Barings Bank. The Mail are a bit late to the party, of course, but Paul Dacre is no fool and knows when the party's over, to mix metaphors. The remainder of page 15 is devoted to Leadsom's failure to produce her tax returns by yesterday, contrasting Theresa May's release of her last four years' returns. Straws in the wind? Haystacks in the hurricane, imo. Can't wait for the Sunday papers.

Wow the mail have gone into the future and come back to report on something that hasnt happenned yet

 

[Railops]

She's p.m. on Wednesday.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

A leaver near me at work (I'm on a hotdesk) claims that this is the power of the EU - it's the EU that's caused Johnson to not run, caused Gove to not get votes, caused Leadsome to quit and caused Farage to quit.

Well if the EU has that much hidden power then we can stop worrying. Clearly, the EU will be able to psychically prevent Article 50 being triggered, and the UK economy will therefore be safe
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Out of all the candidates, there was only ever the one option - and May won't trigger Article 50 in a month of Sundays

I have to admit that personally I'm not quite that optimistic.

However, it has crossed my mind that Leadsom's withdrawal may have a useful effect: It means that Theresa May has been spared a long campaign during which she may well have been boxed into making stronger pledges to Tory members about triggering Article 50, which may have made it harder for her to avoid triggering it 6 months down the line. So possibly the fact that there has been no campaign may make it slightly more likely that, if May decides that it'd be best not to trigger it before the next election, she'll be able to avoid doing so.

 

[Garmoran]

A leaver near me at work (I'm on a hotdesk) claims that this is the power of the EU - it's the EU that's caused Johnson to not run, caused Gove to not get votes, caused Leadsome to quit and caused Farage to quit.

I usually avoid conspiracy theories, but the successive disappearances of Johnson, Gove and then Leadsome just seem far too convenient. It certainly looks like someone with power is pulling strings, but I don't think it's likely to be the EU.