Northern cancellations getting worse

[Whistler40145]

It may not be acceptable. Arguably no cancellation should ever be acceptable. But we are where we are with staff availability so cancellations are going to be around for many more months to come. OTOH we could have the affected TOCs (ie nearly all of them) reduce their timetables on a very long-term basis with an expectation that services will only be restored when staffing levels allow. Which will be never because the DfT will insist that keeping the numbers on the payroll down is an easy win on the cost side of the equation. Be careful which boats you choose to rock!

Well,'Northern are getting quite good at cancellations and isn't just recently

 

[railfan99]

It may not be acceptable. Arguably no cancellation should ever be acceptable. But we are where we are with staff availability so cancellations are going to be around for many more months to come. OTOH we could have the affected TOCs (ie nearly all of them) reduce their timetables on a very long-term basis with an expectation that services will only be restored when staffing levels allow. Which will be never because the DfT will insist that keeping the numbers on the payroll down is an easy win on the cost side of the equation. Be careful which boats you choose to rock!

This is very sagacious advice!

Do any constituents ever complain by email, letter or phone to local MPs about train cancellations, and include in their complaint that heaps of passengers are using many of these frequencies so cancelling means not just a delay but in some cases, overcrowding?

Do we have any contributors who work for the UK Department for Transport, or know someone who does, and who can confirm Ministers/Secretaries receive such contact?

While many in your community (like mine) never use mass transit, there must be thousands in a majority of electorates who do, so even if 10 or 20 complained constructively, without being abusive, it would make the MP sit up and perhaps take a little notice.

 

[Bantamzen]

It may not be acceptable. Arguably no cancellation should ever be acceptable. But we are where we are with staff availability so cancellations are going to be around for many more months to come. OTOH we could have the affected TOCs (ie nearly all of them) reduce their timetables on a very long-term basis with an expectation that services will only be restored when staffing levels allow. Which will be never because the DfT will insist that keeping the numbers on the payroll down is an easy win on the cost side of the equation. Be careful which boats you choose to rock!

Erm cutbacks have already begun, certainly over here in West Yorkshire.

 

[Peterthegreat]

Erm cutbacks have already begun, certainly over here in West Yorkshire.

And in South Yorkshire.

 

[muz379]

Several Blackpool North to Manchester Airport services were cancelled on Friday afternoon and early evening, supposed to be two trains per hour, not acceptable being reduced to hourly

Northern are as bad as TransPennine Express

I am sure many of the TPE passengers on parts of their network who only see a train every 3 or 4 hours day after day would strongly disagree with that .

 

[bob007]

Erm cutbacks have already begun, certainly over here in West Yorkshire.

Indeed. Tonight, last train from Manchester to Huddersfield is 21:45 and this is pretty typical now. Most mornings you're lucky with 3 trains to Manchester from Slaithwaite between 0500 and 0900 - today, there was only the 0742 and 0901. It's absolutely dire. I used to visit Leeds and Manchester lots, both at the weekends and evening. But with cancellations and engineering works, I don't even bother trying now

 

[skyhigh]

Indeed. Tonight, last train from Manchester to Huddersfield is 21:45 and this is pretty typical now. Most mornings you're lucky with 3 trains to Manchester from Slaithwaite between 0500 and 0900 - today, there was only the 0742 and 0901. It's absolutely dire.

It's dire but they're not Northern cancellations...

 

[bob007]

It's dire but they're not Northern cancellations...

quite right ……

 

[Bantamzen]

It's dire but they're not Northern cancellations...

But they have come about because of the same reason given about the cancellations, i.e. a lack of crew. At least in 2023, last year's summer timetable cuts were due to a backlog of staff training. Make of that what you will...

 

[Whistler40145]

IMHO there seems to be an endless backlog of staff training

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

IMHO there seems to be an endless backlog of staff training

What's really sad is that this is nothing new. I posted on here several years ago highlighting the fact that an over-reliance on RDW was going to cause problems when significant fleet replacements happened. And that was before Covid snowballed the backlog. The quickest solution would involve going deliberately over strength on staffing, at least for a couple of years, but under DfT control the exact opposite is more likely.

 

[driverd]

What's really sad is that this is nothing new. I posted on here several years ago highlighting the fact that an over-reliance on RDW was going to cause problems when significant fleet replacements happened. And that was before Covid snowballed the backlog. The quickest solution would involve going deliberately over strength on staffing, at least for a couple of years, but under DfT control the exact opposite is more likely.

It's not an over reliance if there is a rest day work agreement in place and staff wanting to work. The current situation is the later but not the former.

This isn't helped by a relatively large exodus of staff over the year just gone (thus the slow trickle of cancellations getting worse). Turns out a work environment where morale is low isn't especially conducive to staff retention. Who knew?

The sad part of all this is that ot could so easily be resolved if the political will was there. A RDW agreement would go a very long way to easing the situation, even if it didn't bring the strikes to an end.

 

[175001]

RDW won't come back until the dispute is resolved.

 

[Howardh]

In the past nine days (excluding weekends) the 1948 Windermere - Oxenholme has been cancelled six times. That's almost as bad as the late 10's. The 2042 six out of eleven. Just what s going on? How do those expecting a train at 1948 do when they find that and all the others is cancelled?
My day out to Windermere/Lakes tomorrow, and seeing that I'm minded not to bother as I'm not sure if a train will get me home.

https://www.recenttraintimes.co.uk/...&MetAvg=Mea&MetSpr=RT&MxScDu=&MxSvAg=&MnScCt=

	d WDM	a OXN	Dur	RT-5m late	Average	Yesterday	Mon 12	Fri 09	Thu 08	Wed 07	Tue 06	Mon 05	Thu 01	Tu 30/5	Mo 29/5	Fr 26/5	Th 25/5	We 24/5	Tu 23/5	Mo 22/5	Fr 19/5	Th 18/5	We 17/5
TOC	Scheduled Times	% Arrivals	Actual Arrival Time in OXN
NT	18:05	18:24	19m	89%	18:25 1½L	18:24 RT	18:22 RT	18:24 RT	CANC/NR	18:26 2L	18:23 RT	18:24 RT	CANC/NR	18:24 RT	18:24 RT	18:24 RT	18:24 RT	18:23 RT	18:23 RT	18:23 RT	18:24 RT	18:22 RT	18:22 RT
NT	18:56	19:15	19m	94%	19:16 1L	19:14 RT	19:20 5L	19:15 RT	CANC/NR	19:15 RT	19:13 RT	19:15 RT	19:15 RT	19:15 RT	19:13 RT	19:14 RT	19:13 RT	19:15 RT	19:15 RT	19:14 RT	19:17 2L	19:15 RT	19:15 RT
NT	19:48	20:07	19m	50%	20:14 7L	20:11 4L	CANC/NR	CANC/NR	CANC/NR	20:08 1L	CANC/NR	CANC/NR	CANC/NR	20:13 6L	20:07 RT	20:08 1L	20:09 2L	20:18 11L	20:07 RT	20:07 RT	20:09 2L	CANC/NR	20:06 RT
NT	20:42	21:01	19m	56%	21:07 6½L	21:01 RT	CANC/NR	CANC/NR	21:11 10L	21:01 RT	21:02 1L	CANC/NR	CANC/NR	CANC/NR	21:01 RT	CANC/NR	21:01 RT

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

It's not an over reliance if there is a rest day work agreement in place and staff wanting to work. The current situation is the later but not the former.

This isn't helped by a relatively large exodus of staff over the year just gone (thus the slow trickle of cancellations getting worse). Turns out a work environment where morale is low isn't especially conducive to staff retention. Who knew?

The sad part of all this is that ot could so easily be resolved if the political will was there. A RDW agreement would go a very long way to easing the situation, even if it didn't bring the strikes to an end.

This is fine in principle. The key is just how many staff are actually willing to do the extra work. My experience, especially after my previous 2 decades and more in the bus industry, is that people in general are gradually putting a higher priority on their work/life balance and so long as their basic earnings are sufficient for their needs they are less willing to work extra hours, certainly as compared to what was considered normal in BR days. The pandemic has emphasised this point. And for train drivers there is the fact that all their RDW earnings attract the higher rate of income tax which can be a disincentive to some. That's not to say that there is no place for RDW but expectation of its usefulness is mostly too high.

As for the idea that a return to a happy workplace will soon resolve the problems ask anyone based at Manchester Victoria when they can last remember there not being a big backlog in route learning and I suspect you will struggle to find any such memory. And that includes a long period with no changes to the fleet so no additional traction training.

 

[Howardh]

Another evening of cancellations from Windermere, last one went at just before 7pm. So I'm calling off tomorrow and neither Northern nor Lake District businesses will get my money.
Why can't they bustitute? Or even the local council pay for buses to get tourists in and out?

 

[driverd]

This is fine in principle. The key is just how many staff are actually willing to do the extra work. My experience, especially after my previous 2 decades and more in the bus industry, is that people in general are gradually putting a higher priority on their work/life balance and so long as their basic earnings are sufficient for their needs they are less willing to work extra hours, certainly as compared to what was considered normal in BR days. The pandemic has emphasised this point. And for train drivers there is the fact that all their RDW earnings attract the higher rate of income tax which can be a disincentive to some. That's not to say that there is no place for RDW but expectation of its usefulness is mostly too high.

I think that experience may be perfectly accurate elsewhere, but throughout my rail career thus far (closing in on 15 years), I can safely say there isn't now and never has been a shortage of traincrew wanting RDW (sometimes myself included!).

As for the idea that a return to a happy workplace will soon resolve the problems ask anyone based at Manchester Victoria when they can last remember there not being a big backlog in route learning and I suspect you will struggle to find any such memory. And that includes a long period with no changes to the fleet so no additional traction training.

A backlog of route learning doesn't mean you can't cover trains. Ask any depot, any time, if there is a route learning backlog and there will almost always be one. Why? Because people move links, new starters need training, people get ill and return to work requiring re-training. It doesn't prevent trains running - it's precisely why links have Spare/SPT coverage. Failing that we go back to RDW.

A happy workplace certainly helps to get things covered through flexibility and prevents TOCs hemorrhaging crew.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

A backlog of route learning doesn't mean you can't cover trains. Ask any depot, any time, if there is a route learning backlog and there will almost always be one. Why? Because people move links, new starters need training, people get ill and return to work requiring re-training. It doesn't prevent trains running - it's precisely why links have Spare/SPT coverage. Failing that we go back to RDW.

A happy workplace certainly helps to get things covered through flexibility and prevents TOCs hemorrhaging crew.

The current problem is twofold. Firstly the route and traction training backlog, exacerbated by Covid, is just about as bad as it's ever been, especially at the larger depots with multiple links. Secondly the unwillingness of government to allow Northern to solve the pay dispute means no RDW affecting both the training and coverage of diagrammed turns. The net result is a level of service unreliability that is gradually driving away more and more passengers at a time when changes to working patterns means the railways need every ticket sale they can get.

Now the dispute will eventually be resolved even if it means waiting for a change of government. But by the time that happens who knows how much damage will have been done to ridership levels. At that point I believe it will be essential that the risk of cancellations be eliminated (as far as possible) but I am not convinced that RDW will be enough by itself to achieve this while also reducing the training backlog to a more manageable level (I totally accept that there will always be a backlog of some sort). That is why I feel a short-term boost to staffing levels would be beneficial though there may be various ways to achieve this. Restoring a happy workplace will take rather a long time I fear.

 

[driverd]

The current problem is twofold. Firstly the route and traction training backlog, exacerbated by Covid, is just about as bad as it's ever been, especially at the larger depots with multiple links. Secondly the unwillingness of government to allow Northern to solve the pay dispute means no RDW affecting both the training and coverage of diagrammed turns. The net result is a level of service unreliability that is gradually driving away more and more passengers at a time when changes to working patterns means the railways need every ticket sale they can get.

As someone who works at one of the bigger (probably the biggest) depot concerned, I can assure you that's only half correct.

Much is made of the training backlog, but frankly, that's always been a bit of a red herring. For instance, we had more crew attempting to route review one of the services that was heavily cut than could physically get out on the train. The reason for the cut back was given as "to allow staff training" - the reality was we had trained staff who actually lost competence thanks to the culling of services.

Since then, however, there has been a substantial effort to get people out road learning and, certainly at my depot, until very recently we were in a position where almost all trains were covered (despite a large route learning back-log, predominantly where a person has moved links and needs to learn a whole new route card).

The issue more recently and especially in the last few months is failure to retain crew. People are leaving left right and centre. The main quoted reason is the low morale - essentially, staff feel superfluous as services are axed around them and their route cards shrink (let's not forget the "voluntary severance schemes" that keep getting mentioned - even if these don't directly affect drivers), then there's the lack of pay rise. Further, strikes cut both ways - they debatably help the union but they create hostilities in the mess room and between colleagues. Further, lots of staff do want RDW because they're used to it and view it as part of their income. It's one of the things a lot of my colleagues want back most of all (perhaps moreso as it can be used to "top up" what youve lost from strikes). It's just miserable when you think there's no light at the end of the tunnel - so lots of people are looking elsewhere for that light.

Now the dispute will eventually be resolved even if it means waiting for a change of government. But by the time that happens who knows how much damage will have been done to ridership levels. At that point I believe it will be essential that the risk of cancellations be eliminated (as far as possible) but I am not convinced that RDW will be enough by itself to achieve this while also reducing the training backlog to a more manageable level (I totally accept that there will always be a backlog of some sort). That is why I feel a short-term boost to staffing levels would be beneficial though there may be various ways to achieve this. Restoring a happy workplace will take rather a long time I fear.

I do agree that permanent damage will be done to the industry but this was initially leveraged by the government. I could quote small examples from Northern, but the best example is cross country. There's clearly demand but there's no government impetus to restore services.

At my depot, the establishment of drivers has never changed since the heady days of Northern by arriva. In other words, we have sufficient drivers to crew all those additional services that were planned but never implemented (or, we do atleast when people aren't exiting in swathes). Bolstering the depot is unnecessary when the depots are already running with more crew than needed.

To my mind, the resolution is multifaceted but the 2 key aspirations should be:
1. Restore some form of RDW agreement
2. Recruit drivers to establishment level (though this is a long game, and even with a 6 month notice period, hard to manage against the unknown rate of staff leaving)

 

[janb]

Another evening of cancellations from Windermere, last one went at just before 7pm. So I'm calling off tomorrow and neither Northern nor Lake District businesses will get my money.
Why can't they bustitute? Or even the local council pay for buses to get tourists in and out?

The 14th? Only the 2247 to Preston was cancelled, and a replacement bus was provided for that service.

Realtime Trains | Departures from Windermere all day on 14/06/2023

Train information at Windermere all day on 14/06/2023. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

 

[dunc695]

In the past nine days (excluding weekends) the 1948 Windermere - Oxenholme has been cancelled six times. That's almost as bad as the late 10's. The 2042 six out of eleven. Just what s going on? How do those expecting a train at 1948 do when they find that and all the others is cancelled?
My day out to Windermere/Lakes tomorrow, and seeing that I'm minded not to bother as I'm not sure if a train will get me home.

https://www.recenttraintimes.co.uk/Home/Search?Op=Srch&Fr=Windermere+(WDM)&To=Oxenholme+Lake+District+(OXN)&TimTyp=A&TimDay=6p&Days=Wk&TimPer=4w&dtFr=&dtTo=&ShwTim=AvAr&MxArCl=20&TOC=All&ArrSta=5&MetAvg=Mea&MetSpr=RT&MxScDu=&MxSvAg=&MnScCt=

TOC	Scheduled Times	% Arrivals	Actual Arrival Time in OXN
	d WDM	a OXN	Dur	RT-5m late	Average	Yesterday	Mon 12	Fri 09	Thu 08	Wed 07	Tue 06	Mon 05	Thu 01	Tu 30/5	Mo 29/5	Fr 26/5	Th 25/5	We 24/5	Tu 23/5	Mo 22/5	Fr 19/5	Th 18/5	We 17/5
NT	18:05	18:24	19m	89%	18:25 1½L	18:24 RT	18:22 RT	18:24 RT	CANC/NR	18:26 2L	18:23 RT	18:24 RT	CANC/NR	18:24 RT	18:24 RT	18:24 RT	18:24 RT	18:23 RT	18:23 RT	18:23 RT	18:24 RT	18:22 RT	18:22 RT
NT	18:56	19:15	19m	94%	19:16 1L	19:14 RT	19:20 5L	19:15 RT	CANC/NR	19:15 RT	19:13 RT	19:15 RT	19:15 RT	19:15 RT	19:13 RT	19:14 RT	19:13 RT	19:15 RT	19:15 RT	19:14 RT	19:17 2L	19:15 RT	19:15 RT
NT	19:48	20:07	19m	50%	20:14 7L	20:11 4L	CANC/NR	CANC/NR	CANC/NR	20:08 1L	CANC/NR	CANC/NR	CANC/NR	20:13 6L	20:07 RT	20:08 1L	20:09 2L	20:18 11L	20:07 RT	20:07 RT	20:09 2L	CANC/NR	20:06 RT
NT	20:42	21:01	19m	56%	21:07 6½L	21:01 RT	CANC/NR	CANC/NR	21:11 10L	21:01 RT	21:02 1L	CANC/NR	CANC/NR	CANC/NR	21:01 RT	CANC/NR	21:01 RT

I used to go on the Lakes line alot and have some great memories of it growing up. Sadly it's gone downhill in terms of reliability over the last few years so trips have become a lot less by train. So these days its either the 555 bus service from Lancaster or the 755 from Morecambe. Its also a no-brainer with the £2 single fares. When the rail strikes were on the other weekend the 555 buses were full leaving Kendal.

 

[Howardh]

The 14th? Only the 2247 to Preston was cancelled, and a replacement bus was provided for that service.

Realtime Trains | Departures from Windermere all day on 14/06/2023

Train information at Windermere all day on 14/06/2023. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

Services after 7pm didn't appear on rtt, weren't even shown let alone running or cancelled.
So it may have been added later?

 

[156421]

The 14th? Only the 2247 to Preston was cancelled, and a replacement bus was provided for that service.

Realtime Trains | Departures from Windermere all day on 14/06/2023

Train information at Windermere all day on 14/06/2023. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

Forgive my ignorance of RTT, but I don't see a bus? I thought RTT shows buses?

 

[timothyw9]

Forgive my ignorance of RTT, but I don't see a bus? I thought RTT shows buses?

RTT will only show pre-scheduled buses (such as those for planned engineering works). SNCTtT rail replacement buses generally won't and normally are just paged out as messages on Tyrell/JourneyCheck.

 

[Pinus contorta]

To give the people trying to piece the jigsaw together for Northern some credit. Some of the services on the northern website that are listed as cancelled can end up re-instated last minute.

There was a Lime Street to Wigan all stations i was intending to catch on Wednesday afternoon that was listed as cancelled on their website all day and at least 2hr prior to departure I double checked it on RTT. So I went for the previous train.

When I was loitering at Wigan for my North bound Avanti connection i noticed it was back on the arrival screen.

 

[peter166]

Around 60 cancellations for the rest of the day currently.

Northern JourneyCheck - Train times and live real time delay/cancellation/disruption information.

Northern JourneyCheck provides real time, up-to-date train times and train disruption information keeping you informed about any delays or cancellations on the network and helping you know what to do when your journey is affected. Train Cancellations, Delays, Alterations and Engineering Work...

www.journeycheck.com

The "reason" given for most is the meaningless " this is due to a short notice change to the timetable" Why not be transparent & honest and state that the real reason is a lack of train crew ?

The hourly Liverpool to Blackpool service seems to have every other train cancelled ....so effectively 2 hourly... yet the Northern Rail website describes this as only "Minor" disruption !

 

[ricoblade]

Around 60 cancellations for the rest of the day currently.

Northern JourneyCheck - Train times and live real time delay/cancellation/disruption information.

Northern JourneyCheck provides real time, up-to-date train times and train disruption information keeping you informed about any delays or cancellations on the network and helping you know what to do when your journey is affected. Train Cancellations, Delays, Alterations and Engineering Work...

www.journeycheck.com

The "reason" given for most is the meaningless " this is due to a short notice change to the timetable" Why not be transparent & honest and state that the real reason is a lack of train crew ?

The hourly Liverpool to Blackpool service seems to have every other train cancelled ....so effectively 2 hourly... yet the Northern Rail website describes this as only "Minor" disruption !

At Doncaster this morning, one service was cancelled due to <blank> and another due to the short notice nonsense you mention. Not sure which one is worse!

 

[pokemonsuper9]

At Doncaster this morning, one service was cancelled due to <blank> and another due to the short notice nonsense you mention. Not sure which one is worse!

Well at least <blank> isn't a lie.

 

[johnnychips]

This morning they arranged for the 0655 to Goole to stop at all stations from Sheffield to Doncaster as the 0701 stopper was cancelled.

 

[Peterthegreat]

This morning they arranged for the 0655 to Goole to stop at all stations from Sheffield to Doncaster as the 0701 stopper was cancelled.

Not just the 07.01 but the 06.05 and 06 26 stoppers as well.