Other than the occasional passenger on the WAG Express, I don't think there is any passenger who travels first class purely for the food and drink. Every first class passenger benefits from the transportation from their origin to their destination, the more spacious seating, first class lounges (often), etc. Unless a passenger contracts for a rail ticket on the express understanding that their reason for travelling is for the food and drink (other than where the food and drink is a very substantial part of the overall offering, as on the WAG Express), I think a 20% refund would be reasonable. In the case of a low value ticket (e.g. a £50 First AP from London to Manchester), this reflects the fact that the majority of the value of the ticket is to cover the transportation itself. In the case of a high value ticket (e.g. a £250-ish FOS from London to Manchester), this reflects the fact that the high value of the ticket primarily reflects the flexibility it offers and not the catering. No one could seriously argue that the level of catering offered in first class by Virgin Trains, either West Coast or East Coast, is worth more than £50!
My main point is that the relative importance of the catering option will vary considerably between different passengers. Some passengers don't care about food, but for some people it's a relatively very important part of the experience.
I can absolutely see a situation where a person is more likely to go for a FC ticket on a mealtime train than a mid-afternoon train, because getting their breakfast/lunch/dinner on board is relatively important, whereas having a cup of tea at 3pm isn't. In fact, I did this once. On a return to Newcastle, I went FC Southbound mostly because the £5 difference in fares was what I'd paying for breakfast on the train anyway, but on my return in mid-afternoon, the extra money wasn't worthwhile IMO. Although there's no denying that they get the other benefits (leg room, ambiance and so on), each individual's reasons for paying the FC supplement will be different.
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BA is abandoning free food and drink on short-haul flights, with M&S snacks being available for purchase on board.
It might make the inter-city TOCs rethink free food in First Class.
Don't agree.
BA offer a one-class service on domestic flights. The only incentive that they have in offering free food and drink is to attract passengers from other carriers, but:
1) Their business model is about attracting passengers onto higher yielding long haul flights, so they don't necessarily want to encourage domestic travel (although they'll happily take your money).
2) Domestic flights (max duration ~1h30) are a market where passengers are happy to do without food, with the likes of FR and EZY setting precedent, and they're winning the air race to London at the moment.
By contrast, the railways already offer a LCC service in standard class - i.e. buy on board catering (where catering is available). If they want to encourage people to pay the higher yielding FC fares, they have to offer some added value. They do this by offering bigger and more comfortable seats, more legroom, more space, a more luxurious environment, and by providing complimentary food and drink. As such, I don't think that this will encourage TOCs to remove FC catering - rather, I think that the railways might even use it to push their FC product to disgruntled BA frequent fliers. "Come travel VTEC, we still have a complimentary breakfast". (And, for all the criticisms of quality we see on here, it's infinitely better than BA's offering).
It's worth noting that BA's business class fares on short haul flights will continue to feature complimentary food and drink, although there's no business class on their domestic flights.