Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[bramling]

Ministers are expected to meet tomorrow about whether New Year restrictions will happen or not, and the Guardian/Observer are reporting that Tory MPs are warning cabinet ministers that if they support restrictions, their chances of getting support in a leadership election are greatly reduced:

Tory MPs warn Boris Johnson’s rivals to oppose tougher Covid new year rules

Leadership hopefuls told to block new limits in England as scientists model curbs on bars and cafes

www.theguardian.com

Interesting how the prospect of a leadership race has cropped up. The fact that Johnson’s own seat must now be seen to be at least flashing warning lights is reason enough for there to be concern over the viability of his leadership going into the next election.

 

[Snow1964]

Ministers are expected to meet tomorrow about whether New Year restrictions will happen or not, and the Guardian/Observer are reporting that Tory MPs are warning cabinet ministers that if they support restrictions, their chances of getting support in a leadership election are greatly reduced:

Tory MPs warn Boris Johnson’s rivals to oppose tougher Covid new year rules

Leadership hopefuls told to block new limits in England as scientists model curbs on bars and cafes

www.theguardian.com

Weekend data is always poor, and there will be huge gaps in the data. The info the Government have on Monday will probably be less accurate than that published 24th relating to day before Christmas Eve.

They also have the ONS data (office of National statistics) which goes and samples a couple of thousand of the population each week to check data makes sense. It has discovered 75% of covid cases show no symptoms, and clearly most people without any symptoms are unlikely to bother to do a PCR test (unless required to go somewhere or do something). This rather makes a mockery of the tests and means any restrictions are rather pointless.

Hopefully they will realise normality isn’t more restrictions, but treating it more like a bad cold (get people boosted and let them just take time off when feeling poorly, having accepted trying to stop spread is a waste of time).

 

[Mojo]

One observation. Many people are reducing contacts, going out less and doing less. A Christingle service that normally fills the church (~800) was half full; midnight service similarly quiet. Whatever one’s views on Covid restrictions, the impact of those behavioural changes needs to be allowed for.

How much of this was people not wanting to ruin Christmas by wanting to spend this in isolation, versus people staying away from others because they are actually scared?

Going forward, with the heavy publicity that the threat isn’t as serious as the mainstream media & government originally portrayed, how sustainable is maintaining this reduced level of contacts in the long term.

Bear in mind it was only a couple of weeks ago that Neil Ferguson admitted that Christmas is actually a time where the general population has LESS mixing than normal rather than more.

 

[Phil R]

Just had the text. I have reported it as spam.

 

[Mojo]

I do agree with the view that this whole thing is starting to run its course now though. People have had enough, and if it transpires the reaction to Omicron was excessive then this only going to further this process, especially if there’s the feeling that the credibility of data has been stretched in order to suit a particular agenda, which does seem increasingly to be the case.

The issue is, how many people in the general population actually realise this? I would speculate very few.

 

[bramling]

The issue is, how many people in the general population actually realise this? I would speculate very few.

Agreed, though that’s not going to remain the case indefinitely. If the “tsunami of hospitalisations” fails to materialise, despite the lack of measures, people are going to quite rightly ask questions, especially those whose businesses have been screwed over in the last few weeks.

I suppose, for balance, there will also be those who think the tsunami was avoided by masks in Waitrose!

 

[Freightmaster]

I've often wondered what it will take for governments to stop all this. They were all so quick to act when the WHO declared a pandemic. There are obviously criteria which need to be met for them to declare that. What are the criteria needed for them to declare it over?

This was actually discussed on here back in the Autumn:

Will the WHO ever declare an end to the Covid-19 pandemic?

In the past pandemics have ended despite the responsible pathogen remaining in circulation/existence, including all flu pandemics and the plagues. In recent history a respiratory virus pandemic appears to last between 1 and 2.5 years; Spanish Flu was just over 2 years, whereas Swine flu only...

www.railforums.co.uk

I don't think anyone was able to provide a definitive answer, sadly.






MARK

 

[NorthKent1989]

just had the booster text and thats gone the same way as all the other jab texts

 

[21C101]

Interesting article in tonights Torygraph. Quoting Dr Clive Dix, former chairman of the Vaccine Task Force.

Essentially UK deaths flat wheras European deaths rocketing.

He credits it with UKs rapid rollout of Astra Zenica vaccine. This is a modified virus not RNA vaccine. Says it dosen't stop infection but gives you celullar immunity that enables the body to sort the virus before it does the damage. He also says the effect lasts years, possibly for life.

In contrast in the European Union smeared the Aastrazenica and used the mRNA vaccines instead. While they give a rapid jump in antibodies in lab tests they don't give cellular immunity.

Says the lab testing of vaccines has been flawed because it has concentrated on antibodies not T-Cell effects *over time*.

Thinks the mRNAs are good as a short term booster in a crisis but not so much as a "main course" vaccine.

 

[yorkie]

Interesting article in tonights Torygraph. Quoting Dr Clive Dix, former chairman of the Vaccine Task Force.

Can you provide a link and a relevant quote please?

Essentially UK deaths flat wheras European deaths rocketing.

He credits it with UKs rapid rollout of Astra Zenica vaccine. This is a modified virus not RNA vaccine. Says it dosen't stop infection but gives you celullar immunity that enables the body to sort the virus before it does the damage. He also says the effect lasts years, possibly for life.

Yes the Oxford AZ vaccine is a good vaccine. Some people have tried to claim it's not as good as the mRNA vaccines, based mainly on antibody levels and on comparisons of rates of mild infections.

Viral vector vaccines also take longer to take effect, so in comparison trials, the efficacy of such vaccines can appear artificially lower in the first few weeks after the dose has been administered.

In contrast in the European Union smeared the Aastrazenica and used the mRNA vaccines instead. While they give a rapid jump in antibodies in lab tests they don't give cellular immunity.

By "cellular immunity", I see they mean a response through T cells, but I don't see how it can possibly be true that nRNA vaccines don't induce a T cell response; did the author (mean to) say the T cell response isn't as good in the mRNA vaccines?

Says the lab testing of vaccines has been flawed because it has concentrated on antibodies not T-Cell effects *over time*.

Yes indeed and we now know that T cells are key to preventing more severe symptoms.

I wonder if the focus on antibodies are due to it being easier to study them.

Thinks the mRNAs are good as a short term booster in a crisis but not a "main course" vaccine.

There is also evidence that you get better immunity by combining vaccine types, so anyone who was vaccinated with AZ should seriously consider getting an mRNA booster. A lot of people in the UK had AZ, and so the boosters are particularly useful for those people.

Does the article mention the gap between doses? Another benefit for the UK is that most people had a lengthy gap of around 10-12 weeks between doses.

The trials had to run with a short gap because we needed the efficacy data ASAP however many immunologists pointed out that a longer gap was more likely to induce a broader, more robust and longer lasting immune response, than a shorter gap. Again, if anyone didn't have such a gap, a booster dose will make up for that.

And of course there is a level of immunity no current vaccine can provide, which can only be obtained by exposure to the full virus; a vaccinated person who encounters the actual virus will develop an even greater immune response to the virus in future; once this applies to most people we will have sufficient population immunity for the whole thing to be effectively over and the virus will likely eventually be with us in the same way as the pre-existing HCoVs.

 

[takno]

The government has no special entitlement, the mobile networks will send texts on behalf of anyone who pays for them.

They won't take a blanket instruction to send it a text to all their subscribers. You have to provide them with valid phone numbers, and if you don't have an opt in from those phone numbers then the ICO will want a chunk of cash in addition to the networks.

 

[brad465]

Interesting article in tonights Torygraph. Quoting Dr Clive Dix, former chairman of the Vaccine Task Force.

Essentially UK deaths flat wheras European deaths rocketing.

He credits it with UKs rapid rollout of Astra Zenica vaccine. This is a modified virus not RNA vaccine. Says it dosen't stop infection but gives you celullar immunity that enables the body to sort the virus before it does the damage. He also says the effect lasts years, possibly for life.

In contrast in the European Union smeared the Aastrazenica and used the mRNA vaccines instead. While they give a rapid jump in antibodies in lab tests they don't give cellular immunity.

Says the lab testing of vaccines has been flawed because it has concentrated on antibodies not T-Cell effects *over time*.

Thinks the mRNAs are good as a short term booster in a crisis but not so much as a "main course" vaccine.

Happy to be corrected on this, but I recall hearing the Valneva vaccine (or whichever vaccine is being produced in Scotland among other places) was being touted as a good one as well, for countering variants and lasting longer, but the Government were accused of ignoring it for political reasons (it being French designed).

With the AZ one the issue of course is the side effects being discovered caused it to be rolled out less in this country as well, albeit mainly to under-40s, and not everyone above that age got it, many got Pfizer as well. There was/is what some would call a conspiracy in that the reason AZ was being subject to negative publicity was because, unlike the Pfizer one, it was initially sold at not-for-profit.

I would not be surprised if Pfizer, and maybe Moderna as well, were engaging in some very effective lobbying that ensured their vaccines got better purchasing orders, even if AZ and others are actually more effective long term and would be better at combating both Omicron and any future variants too. I can imagine the CEOs of those companies looking with glee at the effects fading in 10 weeks, rather than thinking we need to do more.

 

[21C101]

@yorkie .

@brad465

Article is here.

"Decisive use of AstraZeneca vaccine may have spared UK from omicron crisis hitting Europe​

Britain’s relatively low Covid death toll compared to the continent may be result of earlier use of Oxford jab to vaccinate most vulnerable.."

Decisive use of AstraZeneca vaccine may have spared UK from omicron crisis hitting Europe

Britain’s relatively low Covid death toll compared to the continent may be result of earlier use of Oxford jab to vaccinate most vulnerable

www.telegraph.co.uk

(rest is paywalled)

The article quotes Dr Dix as saying that MRNA vaccines are based solely on the Covid spike protein and produce very specific antibodies.

He states in contrast that AstraZeneca, and also the vaccines made by Novavax and Valneva use a more well-rounded approach.

 

[yorkie]

@21C101 Interesting to hear this development; I had heard rumours of the AZ vaccine being better for T-cell response a few weeks ago but not to this level of detail. I am sure even more analysis will be done on this issue in future...

More good news, and credibility issues, highlighted in today's update from John Campbell:

Gap between first symptoms and possible complications is only 9 to 10 days with omicron
Dr Jenny Harries, chief executive, UK Health Security Agency Seems to have advised Sajid Javid, typically 17-day lag
Office for National Statistics (ONS), average delay of nine or 10 days
50 – 70% less likely to be hospitalised with Omicron
Omicron is displacing Delta

 

[21C101]

@yorkie. The good Doctor Dix is said to have stated that that a key difference is that the RNA vaccines show rapid and obvious antibody increases in lab test but others are better at priming cellular immunity.

The 9-10 days rather than 17 was the Sunday Telegraph headline this morning alongside denunciation of Dr Jenny Harries for allegedly peddling dodgy data.

 

[Pete_uk]

I hope the next generation of AstraZ vaccine has the issue of blood clots reduced to even smaller numbers and the government buy more of them than the others. I would like the government to pay a little bit more than the cost of production which I believe they were charging to ensure future developments.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Weekend data is always poor, and there will be huge gaps in the data. The info the Government have on Monday will probably be less accurate than that published 24th relating to day before Christmas Eve.

They also have the ONS data (office of National statistics) which goes and samples a couple of thousand of the population each week to check data makes sense. It has discovered 75% of covid cases show no symptoms, and clearly most people without any symptoms are unlikely to bother to do a PCR test (unless required to go somewhere or do something). This rather makes a mockery of the tests and means any restrictions are rather pointless.

Hopefully they will realise normality isn’t more restrictions, but treating it more like a bad cold (get people boosted and let them just take time off when feeling poorly, having accepted trying to stop spread is a waste of time).

They will have NHS England hospital stats but the testing levels are bound to be all over the place for next 7 days.

 

[duncanp]

@21C101 Interesting to hear this development; I had heard rumours of the AZ vaccine being better for T-cell response a few weeks ago but not to this level of detail. I am sure even more analysis will be done on this issue in future...

More good news, and credibility issues, highlighted in today's update from John Campbell:

As he said in the video, "..Why did Jenny Harries give data that was nearly a year old, and relating to the Delta variant, to Sajid Javid? I'll leave you to work that one out.."

In other words, he was as good as saying Jenny Harries deliberately gave that data to Sajid Javid, in an attempt to mislead him, and to make him think that a "tsunami" of hospitalisations was about to hit the UK, thus requiring further restrictions.

Time for Jenny Harries to be sacked.

 

[35B]

Just had a text come through on my phone…shocking really how the government can just click their fingers and make the mobile network operators bend over backwards for them

NHSbooster
GET BOOSTED NOW
Every adult needs a COVID-19 booster vaccine to protect against Omicron.
Get your COVID-19 vaccine or booster. See NHS website for details

Truly shocking - I must be imagining the texts I get from businesses whom I’ve provided my mobile number to.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Dec 2021 ==

How much of this was people not wanting to ruin Christmas by wanting to spend this in isolation, versus people staying away from others because they are actually scared?

Going forward, with the heavy publicity that the threat isn’t as serious as the mainstream media & government originally portrayed, how sustainable is maintaining this reduced level of contacts in the long term.

Bear in mind it was only a couple of weeks ago that Neil Ferguson admitted that Christmas is actually a time where the general population has LESS mixing than normal rather than more.

I’ve no idea. My point - which applies equally to supporters and opponents of restrictions - is that changes of behaviour can happen through people making their own choices, and do have an impact on contact levels.

 

[yorksrob]

@yorkie .

@brad465

Article is here.

Decisive use of AstraZeneca vaccine may have spared UK from omicron crisis hitting Europe

Britain’s relatively low Covid death toll compared to the continent may be result of earlier use of Oxford jab to vaccinate most vulnerable

www.telegraph.co.uk

(rest is paywalled)

The article quotes Dr Dix as saying that MRNA vaccines are based solely on the Covid spike protein and produce very specific antibodies.

He states in contrast that AstraZeneca, and also the vaccines made by Novavax and Valneva use a more well-rounded approach.

This is interesting if it turns out to be true.

Perhaps if it does, it would be sensible for those people offered an RNA vaccine initially, to be offered an AZ booster to complement it.

 

[duncanp]

I’ve no idea. My point - which applies equally to supporters and opponents of restrictions - is that changes of behaviour can happen through people making their own choices, and do have an impact on contact levels.

I get a feeling that this is what Boris Johnson will choose to do.

Issuing revised guidance will lead people to make their own choices, and if people take action voluntarily, there is more chance that they will continue with that action for longer, which means that it will have more of an effect overall.

The effectiveness of any restrictions depends on how strict they are, how long they are in force for, and the extent to which people comply with the restrictions.

 

[birchesgreen]

Disappointed i haven't received my NHS booster text yet

 

[Whistler40145]

Boris Johnson will face opposition from the Cabinet, Backbenchers and the 1922 Committee if he even attempts to bring in strict restrictions and he'll be covering his own back if he wants to continue as Prime Minister

 

[nedchester]

I find it quite amusing how hot under the collar some on here are getting because they received a text from the Government. I assume they think it’s some sort of breach of their liberties?

If you are really upset by this then I suggest you have a long hard look in the mirror and think about what is really upsetting in life, you know like the death of a relative or maybe losing your job.

If that doesn’t work go and have a drink to calm your nerves.

 

[Whistler40145]

I've never received a text for any of the vaccinations

 

[52290]

Disappointed i haven't received my NHS booster text yet

I've received my text although I got my booster over two months ago. I tried to send them a text to tell them this but it doesn't seem to accept texts in reply.

 

[duncanp]

I find it quite amusing how hot under the collar some on here are getting because they received a text from the Government. I assume they think it’s some sort of breach of their liberties?

If you are really upset by this then I suggest you have a long hard look in the mirror and think about what is really upsetting in life, you know like the death of a relative or maybe losing your job.

If that doesn’t work go and have a drink to calm your nerves.

It is a minor annoyance to me.

I received the text yesterday, despite the fact that I already had my booster jab more than a month ago. (November 20th)

I expect the reason it doesn't accept replies is that people would send a lot of sarcastic, funny or downright rude messages back.

I felt like sending the following, with apologies to Basil Fawlty.

"I have just picked up the phone to be reminded by you to do something that I have already done. Why? Whats the <expletive deleted> point?.."

 

[NorthKent1989]

I find it quite amusing how hot under the collar some on here are getting because they received a text from the Government. I assume they think it’s some sort of breach of their liberties?

If you are really upset by this then I suggest you have a long hard look in the mirror and think about what is really upsetting in life, you know like the death of a relative or maybe losing your job.

If that doesn’t work go and have a drink to calm your nerves.

You may find it amusing, others see it as constant bombardment from the government, its not needed, especially this time of year, if people are going to get their booster they'll make up their own mind on whether to get it or not, we don't need the nanny state thanks that might be okay for the bedwetters.

 

[Bantamzen]

I find it quite amusing how hot under the collar some on here are getting because they received a text from the Government. I assume they think it’s some sort of breach of their liberties?

If you are really upset by this then I suggest you have a long hard look in the mirror and think about what is really upsetting in life, you know like the death of a relative or maybe losing your job.

If that doesn’t work go and have a drink to calm your nerves.

Why are some people getting worked up about the text? Perhaps because it isn't exactly truthful. It says we "need" the booster, but the vast majority do not. It is potentially the thin edge of a very dangerous wedge.

 

[DustyBin]

Interesting to hear this development; I had heard rumours of the AZ vaccine being better for T-cell response a few weeks ago but not to this level of detail. I am sure even more analysis will be done on this issue in future...

There was an article published in the BMJ (I think it was) a year or more ago which discussed this very issue, which now seems to have disappeared. There appears to be a question mark over the long term T-cell response elicited by the mRNA vaccines for reasons I can’t claim to fully understand (although I get the general gist of it).

My understanding is that mRNA vaccines elicit high levels of antibodies which is great for short term protection, even against infection, but that the protection offered is relatively short lived. As the goal posts appear to have shifted from preventing serious illness and death, to preventing infection and transmission, my concern is that we’re going to be “locked in” to an ongoing programme of regular boosters in order to maintain high antibody prevalence. I’m sure Pfizer and Moderna will be lobbying for this (why wouldn’t they?) but surely we should be asking if it’s sustainable or even necessary given what we know about the human immune system.

Whilst “experimental vaccines” is a term used by anti-vaxxers and not something I wish to be associated with, “experimental vaccine strategy” may not be far wide of the mark; we need to decide what it is we’re trying to achieve here as at the minute we appear to be making it up as we go along with no end in sight.