Passenger journeys down by 4.5% in the 1st quarter of 2017

[bspahh]

The Office of Rail & Road has announced that 407.5m passenger journeys were made in the first quarter of 2017, which is a decrease of 4.5%
http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/25719/passenger-rail-usage-2017-18-q1.pdf

Rail passenger journeys in Great Britain fell by 4.6% in 2017-18 Q1 as passenger journeys fell to 407.5m, the lowest number of journeys since 2014-15 Q1.

The number of journeys made using season tickets fell to its lowest level since 2012-13 Q2, with 22m fewer journeys made compared to this time last year. Advance, Off-Peak and Anytime tickets all experienced an increase on last year, which suggests a change in behaviour with people moving towards a more flexible ticket.

This is further evidenced by a 2% increase in revenue per journey, with people switching from season tickets to tickets that offer a higher price per journey.

The biggest drop was for season tickets.

There is a table with the passenger numbers for each TOC for each quarter over the last few years at http://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/displayreport/report/html/2b2e2c38-c822-4e1f-9fb4-b049b3c13899

Govia Thameslink and Southwest Trains are both down about 10% between Q1 2016 and Q1 2017

Update (October 10th):
The initial report quoted a decrease of 4.5%. This has since been revised to 2.7%

 

[HH]

People should realise that Season Ticket journeys are not actually known - they impute a number and that number is probably overstated these days (IIRC they assume travel 5 days a week plus weekend travel).

But while we all understand why GTR's numbers are down (and Merseyrail's), I see that SWT and Southeastern were even worse.

 

[Simon11]

People should realise that Season Ticket journeys are not actually known - they impute a number and that number is probably overstated these days (IIRC they assume travel 5 days a week plus weekend travel).

Firstly, I don't have direct access [anymore] but for an annual season ticket, it assumes they make ~230 trips (i.e. 5 trips a week for 47 weeks). Nothing is added for weekend travel, however with more people travelling less often, I'm sure it will be lower.

 

[30907]

But while we all understand why GTR's numbers are down (and Merseyrail's), I see that SWT and Southeastern were even worse.

And London Overground is worst of all, which really puzzles me.

 

[telstarbox]

Goblin closure for LO.

Easter fell in April, not March this year (assuming it's a year on year comparison).

 

[Dennis]

I always enjoy a good look at these reports as they often contain some hidden gems of data. For example, table 12.13 shows that since 2010-11, total passenger train kilometres have increased by less than 5%. This doesn't seem very impressive to me, given the huge sums of money invested in the infrastructure.

Looking at the growth figures for individual operstors is inevitably clouded by franchise changes (e.g. Greater Anglia shrinking by 11% as a consequence of transfer to TfL Rail), but it's good to see VTEC, Northern, C2C and Scotrail train km operated all increasing by double digit amounts, presumably the result of running extra services.

By contrast, VTWC train km operated has reduced slightly while SWT and SET can be considered stagnant. This may of course be because 'the lines are full' and increased capacity is provided by lengthening the train but it does cast doubt on the often heard claim that 'were operating more trains than ever on an increasingly congested railway'.

 

[bspahh]

I always enjoy a good look at these reports as they often contain some hidden gems of data. For example, table 12.13 shows that since 2010-11, total passenger train kilometres have increased by less than 5%. This doesn't seem very impressive to me, given the huge sums of money invested in the infrastructure.

The passenger kilometer figures are based on the ticketing database. The ticket revenue has gone up, whilst the passenger kilometers has done down. You can now use an Oyster card for more of the London commuter belt, so some people will have stopped getting a season ticket if they don't need it every day. Secondly, when you spend the money on infrastructure, it just leads to disruption whilst the work is being done. Once it has finished, you get the benefits.

I'm looking forward to the report with the footfall at each of the stations to see what has happened to Shippea Hill. Last year it had 12 passengers recorded all year. There were ~ 30 on one train before Christmas.

 

[Bald Rick]

Southeastern will be explained (at least in part) by the closures at London Bridge over Easter and both May Bank holidays. 10 days in total, which is 11% of the quarter. Albeit at weekends.

Fairly sure Waterloo had some weekend closures in the run up to the big August block too.

 

[eastdyke]

Surely the most important numbers are revenue and average passenger kilometres.
Rail perhaps doing what it's best at with respect to average journey length?

The latter may need to be treated with some caution as there was a change in methodology. Alert!
Looking too closely at the raw data may cause some sort of phobia (I'll call it dataeisenbahnangst).
I hope that no political knee jerk reactions result form the current dataset.

Also interesting to see that both the name of the statistician responsible for the data and his phone number have been placed in the public domain. Surprise!

 

[158756]

Some worrying stats there. Passenger journeys being down on GTR, SWT and Southeastern might be explained by engineering works, though in the past the ongoing trend would cover that up, but journeys are also down on Great Western, Greater Anglia, Merseyrail, Northern, TfL Rail and VTWC. Surely too many to be mere coincidence?

Also a sustained decline in passenger km in London and the South East over the last few years.

I'll wait and see what the Q2 figures are like, but maybe growth terminates here.

 

[The Ham]

It would be interesting to see a rolling yearly figure, as that would show a better indicator add to what is happening. Just as it would iron out some of the impact of engineering works.

The Guardian has a quote from the RDG:

https://amp.theguardian.com/busines...ys-raises-questions-for-train-franchise-firms

Paul Plummer, chief executive of the Rail Delivery Group, which brings together train companies and Network Rail to improve the railway, said: “Despite fluctuations in demand and consumer spending, adjusting for the timing of Easter, the short-term impact of industrial action and current economic uncertainties the overarching trend continues to point to sustained long-term growth.”

 

[RichmondCommu]

These figures might make the DfT sit up and realise that many journeys are far too expensive and if there is more than one person travelling it's often more economical to use the car. Having said that it will be interesting to see where we are in a years time and see what the general trend is.

 

[HH]

Firstly, I don't have direct access [anymore] but for an annual season ticket, it assumes they make ~230 trips (i.e. 5 trips a week for 47 weeks). Nothing is added for weekend travel, however with more people travelling less often, I'm sure it will be lower.

You have to make 2 trips a day so 10 a week, not 5; and they allow for bank holidays. Even then the expected number of journeys can vary year on year as they take into account when half terms fall, etc. From these they produce the expected number of journeys per period (journey factors) which are used to allocate season ticket income.

If Easter has changed period then that would explain, at least in some part, the dramatic fall in ST income, which is going to affect the London Commuter TOCs far more than others.

OTOH Easter is good for the long distance TOCs as there's an increase in leisure travel and they can hike prices for AP.

Maybe it is just a statistical blip after all.

 

[yorksrob]

These figures might make the DfT sit up and realise that many journeys are far too expensive and if there is more than one person travelling it's often more economical to use the car. Having said that it will be interesting to see where we are in a years time and see what the general trend is.

Indeed. Certainly it seems that the emphasis from DfT has been on increasing revenue, rather than getting bums on seats. The two don't automatically go hand in hand, particularly if the TOC can get away with selling fewer seats at a higher price.

It will be interesting to see the figures showing how well loaded the trains are.

 

[Bletchleyite]

By contrast, VTWC train km operated has reduced slightly

This is probably because of the joining of the Euston-Wolves and Brum-Scotland services (a massively successful decision) reducing by one the number of return journeys per hour between Wolves and International.

 

[lejog]

It would be interesting to see a rolling yearly figure, as that would show a better indicator add to what is happening. Just as it would iron out some of the impact of engineering works.

The Guardian has a quote from the RDG:

https://amp.theguardian.com/busines...ys-raises-questions-for-train-franchise-firms

There are annual figures for total passenger revenue over the last 20 years. Total franchise passenger revenue for 2016-17 was £9,441m, up 2.5% from £9,213m in 2015-16. This is only marginally ahead of inflation, way down from the 8-10% rises prevalent earlier in the decade and 4.5% the previous year. This comes as franchises have been assuming high growth figures in their bids. As the same Guardian article says.

First Group retained the TransPennine Express franchise last year with a bid that analysts said assumed passenger growth of between 13% and 18% a year from its second year, but numbers have so far remained static.

 

[HH]

Indeed. Certainly it seems that the emphasis from DfT has been on increasing revenue, rather than getting bums on seats. The two don't automatically go hand in hand, particularly if the TOC can get away with selling fewer seats at a higher price.

The only TOCs that can do that are the long distance operators; certainly not the London commuter TOCs that have seen the drop in revenue. In practice the Intercity TOCs have both made some journeys cheaper and some more expensive, because that is the best way to increase yield; and they are encouraged to do so by DfT, to maximise those Premiums.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

And London Overground is worst of all, which really puzzles me.

The notes say that closure of the Gospel Oak-Barking line (for electrification) had a negative effect.
But that can't account for a 25% drop.

I think we can see why Stagecoach was in trouble with SWT (figures are for Q1 so the recent Waterloo closure is not relevant).
Merseyrail went up (despite the Loop line closure in Liverpool), and Regional TOCs in aggregate did better than LSE/Intercity.

 

[HH]

There are annual figures for total passenger revenue over the last 20 years. Total franchise passenger revenue for 2016-17 was £9,441m, up 2.5% from £9,213m in 2015-16. This is only marginally ahead of inflation, way down from the 8-10% rises prevalent earlier in the decade and 4.5% the previous year. This comes as franchises have been assuming high growth figures in their bids.

It is common knowledge in the industry that overall growth has slowed dramatically; indeed the industry has been desperately seeking to understand why. The usual suspects have been trotted out (e.g. cost of motoring has dropped, more working from home, more part time working), but nobody knows for sure.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Well were all missing the bleeding obvious and ORR hasn't said as no doubt they don't want to for political/security reasons.

London Terror Attacks - the Westminster Bridge/Borough Market attack was on the 3rd June and we had a general election that month and another attack in Finsbury Park. VTEC said at time it had hit their London leisure market. We were hit here weeks 9,10 & 11 the London trade almost evaporated and we were down c10% on revenue for June on previous year meaning our Q1 revenue was almost exactly the same as last year. Q2 revenue growth resumed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

There are annual figures for total passenger revenue over the last 20 years. Total franchise passenger revenue for 2016-17 was £9,441m, up 2.5% from £9,213m in 2015-16. This is only marginally ahead of inflation, way down from the 8-10% rises prevalent earlier in the decade and 4.5% the previous year. This comes as franchises have been assuming high growth figures in their bids. As the same Guardian article says.

Regarding TPE, there is unlikely to be any growth until the new stock arrives - there simply isn't room for it unless it's going to sit on the roof.

When it does, I would expect the transformation from "third-rate outersuburban/inter-regional operator claiming to be InterCity" to "actually InterCity" to drive significant growth, both in terms of "bums on seats" and in terms of what they can get away with charging for a significantly improved quality of accommodation.

 

[zoneking]

I'm very, very glad these figures have shown a decline. This should jolt the rail companies and the DfT out of their comfort zone. A good kick up the backside that was sorely needed. For far too long, passengers (customers) have been taken for granted. In no other industry are customers treated with such contempt.

The British commuter has to put up with strikes, cancellations, disruptions and outrageous season ticket prices, increasing repeatedly beyond the rate of inflation and also average wages.

For the occasional traveler, fares are too high and too restrictive. There is not enough flexibility. People are being discouraged to travel or to go by road or air. On many routes, average speeds and journey times are worse than a 100 years ago.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I'm very, very glad these figures have shown a decline. This should jolt the rail companies and the DfT out of their comfort zone. A good kick up the backside that was sorely needed. For far too long, passengers (customers) have been taken for granted. In no other industry are customers treated with such contempt.

The British commuter has to put up with strikes, cancellations, disruptions and outrageous season ticket prices, increasing repeatedly beyond the rate of inflation and also average wages.

For the occasional traveler, fares are too high and too restrictive. There is not enough flexibility. People are being discouraged to travel or to go by road or air. On many routes, average speeds and journey times are worse than a 100 years ago.

Ill repeat what i said post #20.

Well were all missing the bleeding obvious and ORR hasn't said as no doubt they don't want to for political/security reasons.

London Terror Attacks - the Westminster Bridge/Borough Market attack was on the 3rd June and we had a general election that month and another attack in Finsbury Park. VTEC said at time it had hit their London leisure market. We were hit here weeks 9,10 & 11 the London trade almost evaporated and we were down c10% on revenue for June on previous year meaning our Q1 revenue was almost exactly the same as last year. Q2 revenue growth resumed.

 

[AlterEgo]

Ill repeat what i said post #20.

Well were all missing the bleeding obvious and ORR hasn't said as no doubt they don't want to for political/security reasons.

London Terror Attacks - the Westminster Bridge/Borough Market attack was on the 3rd June and we had a general election that month and another attack in Finsbury Park. VTEC said at time it had hit their London leisure market. We were hit here weeks 9,10 & 11 the London trade almost evaporated and we were down c10% on revenue for June on previous year meaning our Q1 revenue was almost exactly the same as last year. Q2 revenue growth resumed.

I'd be very, very surprised if the GTR/Southern strikes haven't impacted the ridership figures across the board. I'd put money on that being the biggest factor, alongside the other factors you mention.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I'd be very, very surprised if the GTR/Southern strikes haven't impacted the ridership figures across the board. I'd put money on that being the biggest factor, alongside the other factors you mention.

Indeed there are several identifiable factors we can point to. Late Easter, GOBLIN line closures, Southern Strikes, poor performance from SWT, terror attacks, general election I don't think were at the point we can agree with the naysayers who think the railway has priced itself out of ridership growth. Q2 will be the proof - we've had growth here apart from June this financial year.

 

[cuccir]

Delving into this, it looks like the overall picture is of a (limited) growth in travel generally, off-set by a reduction in season ticket holders in London and the South East? Maybe, just maybe, a sign that the London growth bubble is stalling? This would fit alongside the small decline in house prices in the region too.

 

[Llanigraham]

Lies, damned lies...................................and statistics!!

 

[HowardGWR]

Indeed there are several identifiable factors we can point to. Late Easter, GOBLIN line closures, Southern Strikes, poor performance from SWT, terror attacks, general election I don't think were at the point we can agree with the naysayers who think the railway has priced itself out of ridership growth. Q2 will be the proof - we've had growth here apart from June this financial year.

Who's 'we' Gareth? You keep using that.

 

[dk1]

The notes say that closure of the Gospel Oak-Barking line (for electrification) had a negative effect.
But that can't account for a 25% drop.

I thought LO fall was 17%. This sounds about right with the above & Easter.

 

[The Ham]

It is common knowledge in the industry that overall growth has slowed dramatically; indeed the industry has been desperately seeking to understand why. The usual suspects have been trotted out (e.g. cost of motoring has dropped, more working from home, more part time working), but nobody knows for sure.

I would suggest that another factor is that if the lack of new franchises over the last 5 years and those that have been relet are still awaiting new stock.

Without the new stock there's going to be a bobbing up and down of passenger numbers as trains fill up, people look to travel using other ways, trains empty, people return to trains.

Once new trains and new services start to appear then passenger numbers are likely to improve again.