Passenger numbers heading into spring ‘24

[John R]

I think 3 to 4 days is becoming the norm, my company has changed the language slightly from 3 days to greater than 50% but saying the same thing.

I don't think it'll be long before TOCs start looking at ways to increase capacity again

The TOCs might look at it, but whether the DfT are remotely interested is another matter, especially as given various fleet withdrawals there isn’t the same capacity available now.

 

[trebor79]

I do 2 or 3 days a week in London (love near Norwich). London this time last year was an absolute ghost town, particularly on Mondays and Fridays. Now it's back to pre COVID I think.

 

[Bald Rick]

London this time last year was an absolute ghost town, particularly on Mondays and Fridays.

I have to disagree with that. Three years ago it was quiet, two years ago getting much busier, but this time last year it was busy. Indeed, current growth in passenger numbers in London & South East is low single digit % year on year.

 

[Class 317]

I've not noticed any uptick on North Downs Line. I still get seats both ways and pre covid I didn't get seats except Friday morning.
Their has been a reduction in morning am peak services which has reduced capacity as well. I quite believe the 75% south east figure has not changed significantly. I believe people are experiencing the reduction in capacity from downsizing the fleet as much as a passenger number increase.

 

[mrmartin]

Is there a link to national numbers? I can't find it from a google. I think there was a fairly regularly updated snapshot?

 

[Adrian1980uk]

I do 2 or 3 days a week in London (love near Norwich). London this time last year was an absolute ghost town, particularly on Mondays and Fridays. Now it's back to pre COVID I think.

I commute once a week Norwich to London and have noticed it's now a steady uptick but then the trains a pretty much full from Colchester. We have to remember though it's difficult for us to compare as the trains are longer than Pre COVID and Liverpool Street now has the Elizabeth line as well although last week it was particularly busy it thought

Admittedly there are less peak trains though

I have to disagree with that. Three years ago it was quiet, two years ago getting much busier, but this time last year it was busy. Indeed, current growth in passenger numbers in London & South East is low single digit % year on year.

Last time I looked I thought nationally it was still high single digit but I've not looked in that detail

 

[philosopher]

This post shows that there has been a somewhat uneven recovery in passengers numbers since Covid, ranging from 94% in the North East to 69% in the West Midlands.

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/3g5pcn30/regional-rail-usage-apr-2022-mar-2023.pdf

Even using the data from months ago :

North East was 94% of 3 years earlier (before pandemic)
South West 89%
London 85%
East Midlands 83%
Yorkshire & Humber 82%
Wales 79%
East England / Anglia 77%
South East 75%
North West 74%
Scotland 70%
West Midlands 69%

This includes both journeys within regions and between regions.

What are the explanations for such an uneven recovery between different parts of the country.

 

[trebor79]

I have to disagree with that. Three years ago it was quiet, two years ago getting much busier, but this time last year it was busy. Indeed, current growth in passenger numbers in London & South East is low single digit % year on year.

Just going off my own observations. I started this job about this time last year. London was really quiet, it started getting busier after Easter and then got suddta lot busier around the summer holidays.
This time last year I could get a decent hotel for less than £100. Same hotel now £250.

I can distinctly remember getting off a morning peak train at South Kensington on a Friday and wondering where everyone was, just a handful of passengers. Now it takes several minutes to get up the stairs and through the ticket gates.

 

[Horizon22]

Demographics, income levels, historical commuting levels, population growth, quality of service provision, apparent value for money, quality of leisure destinations. Take your pick, it's probably quite hard to complete disentangle.

 

[Snow1964]

Some of those with lowest numbers were most affected by unreliability and cancellations eg Avanti which serves West Midlands and North West. The North West also had northern and TPE which were also rather cancellation happy.

Beyond that there are multiple possible reasons, and crowding must be significant factor, different set of ORR figures are showing some operators are nearer 70-75% of 2019 vehicle km operated, which is rather less than passenger journeys for those 85%+

Perhaps some are better at explaining to DfT they need to match service levels to demand, so haven't cut so far. Although it is could be it's just harder to reduce capacity of a full length fixed formation train that one formed of 3 4car units, where can shorten it to 8car (which SWR has done lots of)

 

[The Ham]

I have to disagree with that. Three years ago it was quiet, two years ago getting much busier, but this time last year it was busy. Indeed, current growth in passenger numbers in London & South East is low single digit % year on year.

However that could be that a line which has 10% of the rail traffic in the area has seen zero growth but a line which has 4% of the rail traffic has seen 12% growth, the overall result would be that the whole regional growth could be 3% but individual areas would be setting much higher growth.

To put that in real terms, the Elizabeth Line may not have seen much growth in the last year, with the rest of the region seeing fairly normal (say 4%) growth but individual routes seeing much higher growth rates.

Until the data is published or someone with access to the current data looks at it and is able to confirm, then it's speculation - however whist the larger the data set the more reliable it is, it's also true that the larger the data set the more outliers can be hidden within the overarching numbers.

 

[Magdalia]

Before the pandemic rail travel in the South East and East of England was dominated by London commuting, much of it over long distances.

The increase in working from home that was triggered by the lockdowns is still having a significant impact on numbers of London commuters.

 

[Doctor Fegg]

In terms of commuter/business travel I’m now noticing that Monday is quietest. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursdays are busier and Fridays are variable with strong leisure travel and some variable business travel, which can combine to be very busy occasionally but doesn’t always.

Similar here (Cotswold Line). Monday quiet, Tue-Thu busy, Fri am quiet, Fri pm rammed. Monday is the real change compared to pre-Covid.

 

[philosopher]

Some of those with lowest numbers were most affected by unreliability and cancellations eg Avanti which serves West Midlands and North West. The North West also had northern and TPE which were also rather cancellation happy.

Beyond that there are multiple possible reasons, and crowding must be significant factor, different set of ORR figures are showing some operators are nearer 70-75% of 2019 vehicle km operated, which is rather less than passenger journeys for those 85%+

Perhaps some are better at explaining to DfT they need to match service levels to demand, so haven't cut so far. Although it is could be it's just harder to reduce capacity of a full length fixed formation train that one formed of 3 4car units, where can shorten it to 8car (which SWR has done lots of)

With the West Midlands having a poor recovery, I do get the impression that it is largely due to the operators that have cut services the most, such as CrossCountry, West Midlands Trains and Chiltern being the ones that serve the West Midlands. For example key routes in the West Midlands such as the Cross City Line and the Snow Hill Lines are only running approx. two thirds of pre Covid services.

LNER which has largely restored pre Covid services and indeed the new Lumo service could conversely explain to some extent the strong recovery in the north east.

 

[DarloRich]

My experience of the WCML south has been that its been pretty static for the last 6 months. In fact I'd say October last year was the busiest month and since then numbers have dropped a little.

Yep, that is the typical profile - busiest in October / November (not coincidentally when performance is worst), January is one of the quietest months. The ‘busyness’ people are feeling now is likely to be the usual post Feb half term pick up.

Certainly the current national numbers are several % below the busy period last autumn.

agreed - most of my commuting is LNWR into Euston and trains are no where near as busy as they were! I never fail to get a seat.

The weekend, however, is bonkers. Trains are so busy. It is like when commuting pre pandemic: you have to pick your trains carefully.

 

[Deafdoggie]

I've never been a regular commuter, but these past few weeks I've had need to travel in and around London in rush hour, and I've been amazed how quiet it has been. I thought I'd be cramming onto trains, but London Overground I've had a seat everytime in rush hours, much, much quieter than I'd imagined London would be in rush hour. If this is really much busier than it was people must have had trains to themselves before!

 

[Snow1964]

I've never been a regular commuter, but these past few weeks I've had need to travel in and around London in rush hour, and I've been amazed how quiet it has been. I thought I'd be cramming onto trains, but London Overground I've had a seat everytime in rush hours, much, much quieter than I'd imagined London would be in rush hour. If this is really much busier than it was people must have had trains to themselves before!

A lot depends on time of travel, does seem to be lot more later starts. Which has spread it.

If go back 10 or 20 years peak was busy about 07:30 - 09:15 as most were expected to start by 9am, with just few on later times. These days will rarely find physical office meetings booked for 9am or earlier.

The trains were often very quiet from 09:15 until off peak tickets started, so used to be empty trains at certain times.

 

[317 forever]

Avanti have re-started the station announcements: “This train is expected to be very busy. Customers with flexible tickets may prefer to wait for another service for a more comfortable journey“.

Total waste of air, for one thing they almost always aren’t full, and for another I very much doubt anyone would even consider waiting unless they are physically unable to board. Also, as they make this announcement before nearly every train arriving at some stations, when do you get to board one?

I heard that the other week at Stockport. Admittedly the train they were suggesting people skipped had already been delayed (I think due to a points failure near Cheadle Hulme) so may have had more passengers than average anyway.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

I heard that the other week at Stockport. Admittedly the train they were suggesting people skipped had already been delayed (I think due to a points failure near Cheadle Hulme) so may have had more passengers than average anyway.

In times of disruption what makes anyone think the following train will be less full anyway

 

[Bald Rick]

In times of disruption what makes anyone think the following train will be less full anyway

Well, obviously, if (as has happened to me twice recently), one is cancelled, and the next one is about 10-15 late, but the one after is on time, the first to arrive will have 2-3 train loads of passengers on it, whereas the second s few minutes later will have much more space.

 

[DJP78]

Thu is the new Fri re: weekend commute

The latest data I saw suggested UK railway commuter levels back to 90% pre-pandemic, albeit notably fewer business commuters

Eurostar has just confirmed their numbers are back to 100% of pre-pandemic numbers

 

[Deafdoggie]

notably fewer business commuters

What other sort of commuters are there?

Certainly round here commuting is very noticeably down. Previously trains were crush loaded in peaks, now, there are less trains and you can get a seat. Leisure travel however is booming.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

What other sort of commuters are there?

Certainly round here commuting is very noticeably down. Previously trains were crush loaded in peaks, now, there are less trains and you can get a seat. Leisure travel however is booming.

Ignoring the lost growth expected over these 3 years, the last 10% is going to be hard to claw back

 

[Alfie1014]

I commute once a week Norwich to London and have noticed it's now a steady uptick but then the trains a pretty much full from Colchester. We have to remember though it's difficult for us to compare as the trains are longer than Pre COVID and Liverpool Street now has the Elizabeth line as well although last week it was particularly busy it thought

Admittedly there are less peak trains though


Last time I looked I thought nationally it was still high single digit but I've not looked in that detail

The trains may offer more seats but there’s 1 fewer peak service 06:48 ex NOR and 18:10 back and the 06:28 is 11 x 755 (with only 550 seats) so the overall number of peak seats provided on Norwich services now is pretty much similar to that of May 2019. That said the changes to the peak GEML service from June add in more outer suburban services with 17 trains in the high evening peak hour (compared to 14 at the moment). Though again back in May 2019 it was 20.

 

[DJP78]

What other sort of commuters are there?

Certainly round here commuting is very noticeably down. Previously trains were crush loaded in peaks, now, there are less trains and you can get a seat. Leisure travel however is booming.

Leisure & tourism are generally the other main cohorts

Business commuters, pre-pandemic, typically bought season tickets, at a premium, thus providing peak reliable revenue for the railway

It’s not all bad news though. There are predictions that rail commuter numbers could double by 2050, slightly off topic if we’re to focus on Spring 24 lol

I’ve read articles that ticket prices might be deliberately inflated by the Dft to curb ticket demand in order to suppress overcrowding in the future. Depressing if true

 

[The exile]

I’ve read articles that ticket prices might be deliberately inflated by the Dft to curb ticket demand in order to suppress overcrowding in the future. Depressing if true

Especially since in many places this has been the case for years.

 

[baz962]

I've never been a regular commuter, but these past few weeks I've had need to travel in and around London in rush hour, and I've been amazed how quiet it has been. I thought I'd be cramming onto trains, but London Overground I've had a seat everytime in rush hours, much, much quieter than I'd imagined London would be in rush hour. If this is really much busier than it was people must have had trains to themselves before!

Well you have had some luck then and the peak has spread a bit. I was an Overground driver until August 21. Through covid it had dropped off a cliff , but by the time I left I was driving trains that were rammed again.

 

[al78]

This Sunday just gone seemed unusually busy on the trains. There were a lot of people at Gatwick in the morning, and travelling from Three Bridges to Horsham at 16:30 I had to stand all the way, something I don't usually have to do in the weekday evening rush hour, with the number of people getting off at Horsham close to a typical weekday evening (i.e. queueing to get up the stairs). I wonder if there was an event going on in London.

I’ve read articles that ticket prices might be deliberately inflated by the Dft to curb ticket demand in order to suppress overcrowding in the future. Depressing if true

Then they can increase the tax on fuel to discourage driving because the roads are rammed full.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I've never been a regular commuter, but these past few weeks I've had need to travel in and around London in rush hour, and I've been amazed how quiet it has been. I thought I'd be cramming onto trains, but London Overground I've had a seat everytime in rush hours, much, much quieter than I'd imagined London would be in rush hour. If this is really much busier than it was people must have had trains to themselves before!

I guess it varies a bit by where you are.

Most of my travel into London is on the Elizabeth line, and it seems to be getting increasingly common that trains on that line are crush-loaded west of Canary Wharf in the peaks, as well as sometimes Saturday daytime. And this on a new line that didn't exist before Covid and with very long, spacious, trains.

 

[43066]

thought I'd be cramming onto trains, but London Overground I've had a seat everytime in rush hours, much, much quieter than I'd imagined London would be in rush hour.

Which lines and what times? That seems a little odd given that London Overground was already back to 96% of pre Covid ridership levels last autumn. I’ve always found the trains very busy whenever I use it.

Latest TfL figures show the Tube reaching 4 million journeys per day

.

tfl.gov.uk

• London Overground ridership is currently 96 per cent of pre-pandemic levels (based on 650,000 on an average weekday for the comparative week in 2018/19)