Publication of Integrated Rail Plan for the North and Midlands

[Starmill]

I'm not sure "promised" is a valid word.

The Prime Minister specifically said that the Eastern Leg would be built.

But then he also specifically said that the 'triple lock' on state pensions would be maintained, that national insurance rates wouldn't rise and that the foreign aid budget would maintain it's 0.7% of GNI floor. He also very specifically promised a number of other items which just aren't happening like "40 new hospitals" and so on.

The concept you need to consider is 'expectation management', if you promise something really big and everyone gets excited about it, if you then come back having changed your mind and say you're actually going to provide a lot, lot less, and much of that isn't coming until long into the future, then people are disappointed and get upset. It's quite a simple thing to understand really.

Over the next 15 years the North and Midlands are getting an electrification programme and a few upgrades to the ECML. It isn't getting the HS2 link to Leeds it expected, it isn't getting a high speed link across the Pennines it expected, it's getting some upgrades of existing lines and most of those are phased from 2035 to 2040 or beyond, so far in the future as to be uncertain of whether they will ever be delivered.

Indeed. A high speed railway to Leeds has been trailed for a decade and a lot of planning (and more!) has been done on that basis.

Now there is to be no high speed railway to Leeds. Or indeed to anywhere nearby. At all.

 

[matacaster]

Well said!

As a northerner, I fully agree that the south west has a pretty raw deal. The south west is a popular destination for many holidaymakers from all parts of the UK. Unfortunately the dire rail service means they nearly all go by car. I remember the Devonian starting from bfd forster square. Cross country train services are slow, too short and infrequent. Needs a big shake up.

 

[Peterthegreat]

The concept you need to consider is 'expectation management', if you promise something really big and everyone gets excited about it, if you then come back having changed your mind and say you're actually going to provide a lot, lot less, and much of that isn't coming until long into the future, then people are disappointed and get upset. It's quite a simple thing to understand really.

Over the next 15 years the North and Midlands are getting an electrification programme and a few upgrades to the ECML. It isn't getting the HS2 link to Leeds it expected, it isn't getting a high speed link across the Pennines it expected, it's getting some upgrades of existing lines and most of those are phased from 2035 to 2040 or beyond, so far in the future as to be uncertain of whether they will ever be delivered.

Exactly. You only need to see both the northern press and even Tory MPs who see this as a betrayal. How many times has MML electrification been scrapped?

 

[irish_rail]

So whilst I can understand Dan Jarvis's complaints, Andy Burnham needs to rein his neck in. Manchester is getting a good deal both with HS2 and TRU, as well as the funding announced in October for MeMetrolink

My biggest fear is Burnham becomes the next Labour leader. I used to quite like him, but now he behaves like a spoilt child who can't have everything he wants.

 

[Peterthegreat]

Tell me about it. The midlands and the north are getting billions thrown (well at least promised!) at them by the IRP. Parts of Anglia, Southwest England and the Southeast have had peanuts spent on them in decades - and that includes work for Thameslink and all of the Power Supply upgrades in the noughties. CARS has recently effectively been deferred for years thanks to COVID.

So whilst I can understand Dan Jarvis's complaints, Andy Burnham needs to rein his neck in. Manchester is getting a good deal both with HS2 and TRU, as well as the funding announced in October for Metrolink.

So Thameslink, Crossrail and HS1 are not in the south east then?

 

[Watershed]

I find it fascinating that the Government announces an eye watering amount of capital investment in the railways of the Midlands and North, and yet the elected representatives of the population who will benefit from it are complaining! You can see why the Treasury doesn’t want to bother, and I suspect they won’t in future if promises to spend big on railways is met by a reaction like this.

If this was the first time any kind of investment such as this was being proposed, I'd agree that it's inexplicable. However, the announcement represents a significant reneging on investments the government had previously promised to make.

The only areas where it goes beyond what was promised, AFAICT, is the provision of a new build section of line from Warrington to Marsden under NPR, a transit system for Leeds, and having HS2 trains serving Derby and Nottingham city centre - the latter two being small investments in the grand scheme of things.

Of course, everywhere that was promised investment gets something, and HS2 and NPR haven't been cancelled in full. But it's still a massive cutback no matter how much spin the report tries to use to disguise it.

Meanwhile Mr Burnham only has to look at the published HS2 maps to see that the elevated part of the station and approaches is right next to Piccadilly, and immediately after crossing Midland Street drops rapidly down into the tunnel. If anything it will significantly improve the area!

Yes, Mr Burnham is getting everything he was was promised and yet he still finds something to complain about. I suppose he's a Labour politician so that was fairly foreseeable.

 

[matacaster]

Reading the 'Guardian' article, Andy Burnham's main concern is how NPR will exit the city towards Yorkshire for which there is zero detail, and not HS2. If there are to be viaducts say parallel to the Ashton Old Road they will complete wreck the regeneration plans for the area. A tunnel would be preferable, but the area is astride the Manchester Coalfield with challenging geological conditions and a long history of subsidence in the Gorton area. The more obvious solution would be to re-quadruple the old Woodhead line as far Guide Bridge and start a new line from there.

Yes, you'd miss the horribly slow dogleg via staylybridge too.

 

[HSTEd]

Reading the 'Guardian' article, Andy Burnham's main concern is how NPR will exit the city towards Yorkshire for which there is zero detail, and not HS2. If there are to be viaducts say parallel to the Ashton Old Road they will complete wreck the regeneration plans for the area. A tunnel would be preferable, but the area is astride the Manchester Coalfield with challenging geological conditions and a long history of subsidence in the Gorton area. The more obvious solution would be to re-quadruple the old Woodhead line as far Guide Bridge and start a new line from there.

Crawling out to Guide Bridge on the old Woodhead line would render the entire route pretty pointless in terms of being attractive to passengers....

 

[JamesT]

The trains may be faster but they will go a long way round and be limited to conventional speeds on existing tracks.

Your initial question was how going via East Mids Parkway could be faster for Birmingham to Derby. There will be new high speed track for Birmingham to EMP which allows the trains to get up to speed. So it’s easily possible for time saved on that stretch to outweigh any extra distance on conventional track.

 

[NoRoute]

Tell me about it. The midlands and the north are getting billions thrown (well at least promised!) at them by the IRP. Parts of Anglia, Southwest England and the Southeast have had peanuts spent on them in decades

When were the railways in the Southeast electrified? 1930s to 1960s?
When were the lines out to Kings Lynn and Norwich electrified, mid 1980s to 1990s?
Granted, the Great Western didn't get upgraded until 2010-2020.

It shows how far behind parts of the North and Midlands are in investment terms.

 

[swanhill41]

Away from the HS2 and other major projects,was there anything mentioned about poss re-openings such as Poulton to Fleetwood line?

 

[HSTEd]

Agree. Trouble is on here we are all relatively confident rail users, and we forget that many long distance rail journeys are actually made by occasional rail users, many of whom are actually deeply unnerved by using trains and stations etc. Just because it is "everyday" for all of us, millions of people out there are extremely frightened at the idea of using the train, let alone having to change on route at a busy station.

The problem is that it is impractical to build an economical and useful network based on single seat rides between every possible combination of start point and destination.

At some point I'm afraid we just have to accept the loss of traffic from some nervous "occasional" users - who don't generate that much income for the railway anyway by virtue of only using the train occasionally.

Overall volume is what matters.

I think the example of the London Underground and its normal changing is instructive of what can be achieved with proper design and operation.

 

[leytongabriel]

The interchange bridge you used before is still there and hasn't changed, the west footbridge now covers all platforms and there are additional east accesses to all the platforms duplicating the old interchange bridge and it now takes you 17 minutes longer? I think your exaggerating a bit maybe?

It's just not easy. Passenger info unclear. As a non-Brummy I've only used it twice and found it hellish both times.

 

[Irascible]

Granted, the Great Western didn't get upgraded until 2010-2020.

That one was for Wales & the places on the way - the SW got the replacement trains the rest of the HST regions did & that was it.

--

Can we stop N/S divide stuff? at least use the chart The Ham posted at some point about regional expenditure if fingers must be pointed.

 

[nr758123]

Reading the 'Guardian' article, Andy Burnham's main concern is how NPR will exit the city towards Yorkshire for which there is zero detail, and not HS2. If there are to be viaducts say parallel to the Ashton Old Road they will complete wreck the regeneration plans for the area. A tunnel would be preferable, but the area is astride the Manchester Coalfield with challenging geological conditions and a long history of subsidence in the Gorton area. The more obvious solution would be to re-quadruple the old Woodhead line as far Guide Bridge and start a new line from there.

Ground conditions are fairly awful around Guide Bridge and Ashton, too, so starting a new line from there has the same disadvantages.

 

[Dr Hoo]

Exactly. You only need to see both the northern press and even Tory MPs who see this as a betrayal. How many times has MML electrification been scrapped?

I thought that it was just the once (which was inevitable after the overall electrification budget in the Periodic Review settlement had been totally burnt through on less-than-all-of the Great Western element) and it is evidently back on again now.

 

[GoneSouth]

I bet if you looked at actual % of total XC passengers who are families with luggage travelling from North of Birmingham to the South West, it is tiny.

Besides, changing train is not the disincentive to travel for such groups that many on here seem to think. Ease of finding a good value fare is far more important (compared to the cost of driving). People don't care that much about changing trains.

Some most definitely do. It’s a backward step. Changing trains alone isn’t a huge problem, we all do it frequently but changing stations is ridiculous. Many people actively avoid taking trains where they have to change stations in central London precisely because of the pain in the backside of getting between stations.

I travel frequently on the Bristol to north east train, and would also use the Bristol to Manchester if XC can ever be bothered to reinstate it, and for all of those dismissing the numbers and type of passengers who use XC services as being unimportant, please be a little more respectful. What some of you are suggesting is a complete discontinuation of long distance north to south rail services, Plymouth, Cornwall, Exeter, Bristol, Southampton, Reading to anywhere North of Birmingham would be more difficult as a result. I’ll pay a cheaper, slower fare and keep my New Street direct service please.

Imagine if you are disabled (cue the selfish wibble that says the number of disabled people is vanishingly small), how do they change stations. How does a blind man from Taunton who is travelling to Sheffield university negotiate his way around a city he doesn’t know because somebody has the crap idea of breaking a service that kind of works right now. He’s basically f*****. When changing trains at the same station there is support from the railway, when changing stations there is not!

I also have to say that whilst there is a big churn of passengers at New Street right now, I am definitely not the only person who remains on board when we stop there. Plenty of people take advantage of the convenience of a direct route, often quite large numbers.

just because you done need a little help, don’t dismiss those that do. Or have they outstayed their welcome and are economically a burden to the country now. I think not, anyone who can afford XC prices has to be pretty economically active!

Thank God I’ll be retired in 30 years when this all happens and I don’t need to make the journey anymore. In fact, I’m fairly sure the whole thing Will have been rethought, descoped, refined, redrawn, consulted upon and more than likely even be binned by then.

 

[Peterthegreat]

I thought that it was just the once (which was inevitable after the overall electrification budget in the Periodic Review settlement had been totally burnt through on less-than-all-of the Great Western element) and it is evidently back on again now.

Perhaps scrapped was the wrong word. It was originally paused by McLoughlin before been restarted and then scrapped by Grayling.

 

[GoneSouth]

Taking an example journey from Bristol to Newcastle, the service will run at significantly higher speeds between Curzon Street and Marsden saving a projected 39 minutes (compared to today) (IRP page 18). Assuming a 10 minute change from Curzon Street to Moor Street (IRP page 119), and a worst case wait of 20 minutes (IRP page 59) for a HS2/NPR train, that's still a faster journey.

Yup, 9 minutes faster. Is it worth it, I think not

 

[Bald Rick]

Sorry but the Government had promised, promised and promised to spend big and have watered it down.

Is this not spending big? Indeed bigger than any previous expectations? Granted on some different things.

To be fair you do have to wonder what the point of setting up TfN was only a few years ago

That was a question asked by many a few months after it was set up, when they started arguing with each other.

The concept you need to consider is 'expectation management', if you promise something really big and everyone gets excited about it, if you then come back having changed your mind and say you're actually going to provide a lot, lot less, and much of that isn't coming until long into the future, then people are disappointed and get upset. It's quite a simple thing to understand really.

I understand that. My point is that many of the expectations were not set by central Government. A whole host of them were made by the local politicians or TfN: underground station at Piccadilly, new station for Liverpool, NPR via a new station for Bradford, etc. Etc. None of them were ever ‘promised’ by central Government.

But the main point is that in the current financial circumstances, and with very significant opposition to HS2, and with demand for rail services levelling out at 70% of pre-Covid nationally, it would have been very, very easy for the whole lot to be binned. And I’m really not joking when I say that when senior politicians see this sort of reaction to what should be seen as a landmark piece of public investment, they won’t be keen to do it again.

Reading the 'Guardian' article, Andy Burnham's main concern is how NPR will exit the city towards Yorkshire for which there is zero detail, and not HS2.

I’m sure he’s seen the detail, and must have “momentarily forgotten” how NPR leaves Manchester. He may remember when the plans do come out; hopefully he won’t try to claim credit.

How many times has MML electrification been scrapped?

Once, in about 1983.

Most recently it was ‘paused’, or more accurately put on to a slower development process. Which about 2 years ago was sped back up.

 

[snowball]

Meanwhile Mr Burnham only has to look at the published HS2 maps to see that the elevated part of the station and approaches is right next to Piccadilly, and immediately after crossing Midland Street drops rapidly down into the tunnel. If anything it will significantly improve the area!

There are no published maps for where NPR will go once it has diverged from HS2. Don't blame Burnham for the sins of the headline-writer.

 

[Starmill]

My point is that many of the expectations were not set by central Government.

The expectation that there would be a new high speed route reaching Leeds was very firmly set by the Prime Minister and Secretary of State.

I understand what you're getting at here but fundamentally expectation management has been terrible. That's still on central government.

 

[Glenn1969]

I find it fascinating that the Government announces an eye watering amount of capital investment in the railways of the Midlands and North, and yet the elected representatives of the population who will benefit from it are complaining! You can see why the Treasury doesn’t want to bother, and I suspect they won’t in future if promises to spend big on railways is met by a reaction like this.

Meanwhile Mr Burnham only has to look at the published HS2 maps to see that the elevated part of the station and approaches is right next to Piccadilly, and immediately after crossing Midland Street drops rapidly down into the tunnel. If anything it will significantly improve the area!

I would have thought the complaints are more from people in Yorkshire. We were after all promised HS2 would reach us several times. It doesn't reach West Yorkshire at all unless I have missed something. Regional connectivity is currently abysmal especially Sheffield to Leeds. The IRP gives zero details on how or when HS2 will reach Leeds. I would also have preferred a "7 cities NPR network" in Yorkshire serving Bradford, Doncaster, Hull, Leeds, Sheffield, Wakefield and York with faster and more frequent journeys linking all 7 of Yorkshire's major cities. To feed it I'm in favour of West Yorks mass transit and hope to see it built in full by 2040 and in part by 2030.

 

[Doctor Fegg]

My biggest fear is Burnham becomes the next Labour leader. I used to quite like him, but now he behaves like a spoilt child who can't have everything he wants.

He's the Mayor of Manchester. His job is to argue for the best possible deal for Manchester

 

[Peterthegreat]

The expectation that there would be a new high speed route reaching Leeds was very firmly set by the Prime Minister and Secretary of State.

I understand what you're getting at here but fundamentally expectation management has been terrible. That's still on central government.

And I’m really not joking when I say that when senior politicians see this sort of reaction to what should be seen as a landmark piece of public investment, they won’t be keen to do it again.

If senior politicians didn't see the reaction coming they are clearly out of touch.

 

[snowball]

Away from the HS2 and other major projects,was there anything mentioned about poss re-openings such as Poulton to Fleetwood line?

No, it was only about the big projects.

 

[Manutd1999]

Am I correct in thinking that the section from Dewsbury to Leeds will remain two track? Even once electrified, this will be a huge capacity bottle neck, with local stoppers mixing in with semi-fasts (via the existing lines) and "fast" services via the new high-speed route.

 

[tomuk]

He's the Mayor of Manchester. His job is to argue for the best possible deal for Manchester

The problem is in reality he has got the best deal for Manchester at the expense of Leeds and the North East. So to retain his 'King of the North' position and segway to next Labour leader he's got to kick up an unwarranted fuss.

 

[Mikey C]

And I’m really not joking when I say that when senior politicians see this sort of reaction to what should be seen as a landmark piece of public investment, they won’t be keen to do it again.

If senior politicians didn't see the reaction coming they are clearly out of touch.

Big long term rail projects are a great thing for politicians to announce, as the serious work and money is years/decades down the line

Indeed that's part of the problem, it's very easy to announce something, to over promise, only to subsequently revise the plans and get slaughtered.

 

[the sniper]

And I’m really not joking when I say that when senior politicians see this sort of reaction to what should be seen as a landmark piece of public investment, they won’t be keen to do it again.

So they don't just play dumb? No wonder the country is fooked.

I for one thank our great benevolent leaders, if they're reading. (I've heard those military guys continually complaining about you scaling back plans for the likes of more Frigates and F35s, please send us their money for more OHL, love you lots. x)