Is this still rumbling on...?
I wouldn't like to suggest that non-drivers don't have the right to enter this discussion. However, it shows from a lot of what is being said that the understanding of systems and issues is low.
For example, ARS is not the dawn of a new age for signalling but simply a tool. It generally works well but, from a driver's perspective, it is weak during times of disruption. Like any automated system it is designed and implemented by humans and, when it makes a mistake, it requires another human to spot it. Likewise, Speed Set is not "cruise control for trains".
I would return once again to the point I raised right back at the beginning about the general level of safety of an ATO service on an open network like the NR network. Everyone else here seems to be focussing entirely on whether or not a computer could do a driver's job, but unfortunately, while it can do at least some tasks at least as well as a human driver, it cannot do them all. Therefore, how do you ensure the safety of a network where trees, cars, trespassers, flooding, snow and heaven only knows what else can and routinely does find it's way onto the tracks? Likewise, given that, like any other railway system, ATO will have to be fail-safe, how will the system cope with degraded situations like axle-counter failure? These are the issues that would concern me more as a driver, and I hope that any responses I get will be rooted firmly in reality and not science-fiction.
Of course it would be ridiculous to say that technology will not advance and provide assistance for the driver. We already have WSP to help with braking and traction under difficult conditions, vastly improved headlights and so on, so it is inevitable that we will see further improvements. However, we are still a very long way away from ATO or anything even remotely like it except under certain very specific conditions where safety can be ensured (e.g. the Thameslink core). But there are tasks that simply cannot be automated, where drivers are called on to make decisions and/or judgement calls that affect the way that trains operate. In addition to making the trains start and stop, drivers are the eyes and ears of the railway and usually the first to spot things like bank slips, flooding and trespassers, etc. The number and complexity of systems required to ensure the same levels of safety and vigilance that drivers provide would be astronomical and almost totally unworkable.
O L Leigh