Rail strikes discussion

[Thumper1127]

Lots of mention has been made of the increase in NI so I’ve done a bit of research and calculation. Based on the increase in allowance (parity with tax threshold) and assuming a 13 month pay year (I assume rail pay is still four weekly) the NI contribution per pay period will reduce when compared with the tax year 20/21 by:

£20k - £28.32
£25k - £28.73
£30k - £29.15

We’ve obviously had the increase since April and that won’t be “refunded” but going forward they are not insignificant reductions. I’ve yet to work out the salary you would need to be on where you would be paying more NI.

Individuals may vary if course according to other deductions but if you are on £30k or below you will definitely be better off than you were pre the increase.

I post this with no agenda other than to try to put some figures in the forum members may find useful.

 

[bramling]

The problem with moving up north is the lack of jobs...

London and the South East is very dense with companies and offices. This means there are a lot of very well paid skilled jobs.

The north has much less of this, relying on blue collared jobs, and low skilled jobs like retail. That is why it is so cheap, there's no demand to live there because there are no jobs.

The south is so expensive because of all the jobs

Also the disparity in pay, though to be fair the cost of living is considerably less.

In principle I’d move up north. Indeed we have a second property there. Unfortunately I can’t relocate work. There’s also the weather to think about - just in Wales now where it’s cold, grey and windy as I write this (and has been for the last 4 days), yet I look at my home webcam in Hertfordshire and the weather is perfect. Isn’t it something like the weather is nine times worse away from the south-east?

 

[Horizon22]

Low-ish interest rates also enable first time buyers onto the property ladder and make it easier to overcome the unsustainably high property cost.

Instead of using a blunt instrument like interest rates, far better to target legislation at speculative property purchase, non-resident property ownership etc

That's more of a secondary bonus though - if you can't scrape together the deposit and the wage to price ratio is extreme, it's a bit worthless.

Also the disparity in pay, though to be fair the cost of living is considerably less.

In principle I’d move up north. Indeed we have a second property there. Unfortunately I can’t relocate work. There’s also the weather to think about - just in Wales now where it’s cold, grey and windy as I write this (and has been for the last 4 days), yet I look at my home webcam in Hertfordshire and the weather is perfect. Isn’t it something like the weather is nine times worse away from the south-east?

Nice of you to have a 2nd property (!). But no the weather is not considerably worse around various parts of the UK - yes worse but it's all the same island overall with broadly similar weather patterns.

 

[bramling]

That's more of a secondary bonus though - if you can't scrape together the deposit and the wage to price ratio is extreme, it's a bit worthless.



Nice of you to have a 2nd property (!). But no the weather is not considerably worse around various parts of the UK - yes worse but it's all the same island overall with broadly similar weather patterns.

Broadly similar maybe, but there’s disparities in things like sunshine hours, rainfall, amount of cloud. Either that or I’m *extremely* unlucky every time I leave the south-east! Put in this way, anyone used to the south-east will find themselves with much more cloud and rain, especially on the west side of the country.

That said, the scenery in others parts of the country more than makes up for it.

 

[Need2]

Lots of mention has been made of the increase in NI so I’ve done a bit of research and calculation. Based on the increase in allowance (parity with tax threshold) and assuming a 13 month pay year (I assume rail pay is still four weekly) the NI contribution per pay period will reduce when compared with the tax year 20/21 by:

£20k - £28.32
£25k - £28.73
£30k - £29.15

We’ve obviously had the increase since April and that won’t be “refunded” but going forward they are not insignificant reductions. I’ve yet to work out the salary you would need to be on where you would be paying more NI.

Individuals may vary if course according to other deductions but if you are on £30k or below you will definitely be better off than you were pre the increase.

I post this with no agenda other than to try to put some figures in the forum members may find useful.

I don’t know what you’re talking about in all honesty so no offence intended .
My NI contributions have increased by £45 per 4 weeks.

 

[baz962]

I don’t know what you’re talking about in all honesty so no offence intended .
My NI contributions have increased by £45 per 4 weeks.

But the rate rises from 9000 odd to 12000 odd , so should drop again from July. You will still pay more than 2021 .

 

[Horizon22]

Broadly similar maybe, but there’s disparities in things like sunshine hours, rainfall, amount of cloud. Either that or I’m *extremely* unlucky every time I leave the south-east! Put in this way, anyone used to the south-east will find themselves with much more cloud and rain, especially on the west side of the country.

That said, the scenery in others parts of the country more than makes up for it.

That is indeed true based on convectional rainfall and prevailing wind conditions, but it's not such a dramatic impact as you raise I believe. Anyway I think this has deviated somewhat from the original point of the thread!

 

[Thumper1127]

I don’t know what you’re talking about in all honesty so no offence intended .
My NI contributions have increased by £45 per 4 weeks.

That is now with the existing threshold. The threshold increases to match income tax allowance from 6th July meaning those below certain earnings will actually pay less per year/month than they were before the increase. That’s why I posted it as there is a massive misunderstanding about NI. Go onto the Which? site and look for their tax calculators and you can input your salary and compare with last tax year. You need to do the current tax year in two parts April to July and July to next April. The total is what you will pay this year. If you take the July to April figure and divide by 305 and then multiply by 365 you will get the new annual figure (which ignores the fact that you will have paid more since April. A £45 increase does suggest that you may still lose out compared with 2020/21 but I think you’ll find your £45 actually reduces b

 

[Snow1964]

Most people work about 235 days a year (based on 5 day week, and allowing for bank holidays and 4-5 weeks holiday)

Therefore 3 days pay is about 1.28% of pay,
or every day on strike has to get a gain of 0.43% of pay to justify it, so if 3% offer doesn’t increase to at least 3%+1.28%=4.28% then strikes were not worth it.

So basically if aim is to increase a 3% pay offer to 10%, anymore than 16 days strikes (including 3 already done) means pay increase is less than pay lost due to strikes (unless deal is for more than 12 months)

 

[Wolfie]

Most people work about 235 days a year (based on 5 day week, and allowing for bank holidays and 4-5 weeks holiday)

Therefore 3 days pay is about 1.28% of pay,
or every day on strike has to get a gain of 0.43% of pay to justify it, so if 3% offer doesn’t increase to at least 3%+1.28%=4.28% then strikes were not worth it.

So basically if aim is to increase a 3% pay offer to 10%, anymore than 16 days strikes (including 3 already done) means pay increase is less than pay lost due to strikes (unless deal is for more than 12 months)

Logical fallacy. You are only looking at one year. The baseline pay for the rest of your employment is affected too.

 

[Watershed]

Lots of mention has been made of the increase in NI so I’ve done a bit of research and calculation. Based on the increase in allowance (parity with tax threshold) and assuming a 13 month pay year (I assume rail pay is still four weekly) the NI contribution per pay period will reduce when compared with the tax year 20/21 by:

£20k - £28.32
£25k - £28.73
£30k - £29.15

We’ve obviously had the increase since April and that won’t be “refunded” but going forward they are not insignificant reductions. I’ve yet to work out the salary you would need to be on where you would be paying more NI.

Individuals may vary if course according to other deductions but if you are on £30k or below you will definitely be better off than you were pre the increase.

I post this with no agenda other than to try to put some figures in the forum members may find useful.

The reduction in NI from the higher threshold is a fixed amount, and it's the same amount no matter how much you earn, provided it's £12,570 a year or more.

You previously paid 12% (the "starter" NI rate) on everything above £9568 a year (up to £50k). From July you will pay 13.25% on everything above £12,570. That's a net saving of between £360 and £398 depending on whether you calculate it based on the old or new NI % rate.

However, above £12,570, the higher NI % rate counteracts this and means that the more you earn, the smaller the saving compared to before April.

The "breakeven" point is around £41,400. But because NI liability is calculated per payslip rather than being an annual calculation (with refunds or underpayments possible) as with Income Tax, the precise calculations depend on your pay dates and individual circumstances. And if you have an uneven income (e.g. you earn a variable amount of bonuses, commission or overtime) then the breakeven point is lower.

But no the weather is not considerably worse around various parts of the UK - yes worse but it's all the same island overall with broadly similar weather patterns.

This rainfall map suggests otherwise:



There's a huge disparity between the rainy west, with parts (particularly elevated areas) averaging more than 2m of rain per year, and the drier east which averages around 60cm per year.

Of course that doesn't necessarily mean that there are 3 times as many rainy days in the west. But it's certainly a very noticeable difference.

 

[alxndr]

Ah yes. Google, the most trusted source of facts.

The most reasonable source to use for statistics on what people are searching on what is probably the most popular search engine.

 

[Shrop]

There's a huge disparity between the rainy west, with parts (particularly elevated areas) averaging more than 2m of rain per year, and the drier east which averages around 60cm per year.

Of course that doesn't necessarily mean that there are 3 times as many rainy days in the west. But it's certainly a very noticeable difference.

Absolutely right. Okay, it's off topic but in Shropshire we're forever listening to national TV forecasts which say "It's been another glorious day", when we (in Shropshire) have had mainly grey skies and a couple of sunny intervals.
Meanwhile back on topic, I sincerely hope the rail disquiet gets sorted soon. It's a vulnerable industry which vast numbers of car orientated people can do without, and the longer this goes on, the more people will learn alternative travel habits, or other ways to not need rail travel. I don't condone shoddy treatment of staff at all, but pay should not be the main focus here, job security should, with decent settlements if jobs are threatened. Quibbling about the odd couple of extra percent just because someone else might get more, could be the least of strikers' problems if the industry shrinks significantly after the present lack of reliable supply pushes customers away.

 

[yorksrob]

Not if low interest rates simply stimulate demand and force prices up, especially if this then makes the property out of reach.

Indeed it’s possibly, in time, going to be seen that the BOE’s reducing interest rates to virtually zero levels during Covid was an error. We absolutely didn’t need people using Covid as an opportunity to buy somewhere with a bigger garden, move to the countryside, etc.



Yes, although interest rates aren’t just aimed at influencing property demand, but demand across the board.

That's more of a secondary bonus though - if you can't scrape together the deposit and the wage to price ratio is extreme, it's a bit worthless.



Nice of you to have a 2nd property (!). But no the weather is not considerably worse around various parts of the UK - yes worse but it's all the same island overall with broadly similar weather patterns.

Yes, but the point is that raising interest rates will make the status quo worse.

You would need the other more targeted interventions to improve the status quo.

 

[dk1]

I don’t know what you’re talking about in all honesty so no offence intended .
My NI contributions have increased by £45 per 4 weeks.

Do you know what percentage it went up? I honestly have no idea how much NI I pay. It’s just one of those deductions always on the payslip & I haven’t a clue how much each month. You are very observant.

 

[jon0844]

It's a vulnerable industry which vast numbers of car orientated people can do without, and the longer this goes on, the more people will learn alternative travel habits, or other ways to not need rail travel.

I doubt many people are rushing to buy a car if they don't already have one. New and second hand prices are way up, and then there's the cost of fuel. Insurance hasn't really been impacted, or VED, but I assume some garages are charging more for servicing and parts.

Those who have a car can use it a bit more if they have to, but are probably not dead keen on driving more than absolutely necessary right now - or anytime in the near future.

 

[CFRAIL]

Are you aware of things called BOTS? It's easy for them to all search for something and boost numbers. Oh well, I'll refrain from commenting on Google further.

Yes because BOTS want to be in a union

 

[Thumper1127]

Do you know what percentage it went up? I honestly have no idea how much NI I pay. It’s just one of those deductions always on the payslip & I haven’t a clue how much each month. You are very observant.

It will be on your payslip and assuming you’ve got your P60 for the last year your total contributions for the year should be on it.

 

[bramling]

I doubt many people are rushing to buy a car if they don't already have one. New and second hand prices are way up, and then there's the cost of fuel. Insurance hasn't really been impacted, or VED, but I assume some garages are charging more for servicing and parts.

Those who have a car can use it a bit more if they have to, but are probably not dead keen on driving more than absolutely necessary right now - or anytime in the near future.

I have to say, having been in west Wales for the last 2 weeks, I see no evidence of people giving up driving. The roads are as busy as ever, and it’s quite evident there are still plenty of discretionary trips (judging by the number of people still driving somewhere to take the dog for a walk!).

What I have noticed is that the longer-distance routes are a bit emptier. The last couple of times I’ve been up the A1 there’s a conspicuous reduction in the number of cars (not other vehicles such as trucks, though), and same when driving to London down the southernmost section of the A1(M) during the daytime. Same when we drove to wales down the M4 during a weekday midday - surprisingly quiet once clear of London.

I’m going to be nasty and say that I will happily pay higher fuel prices if it keeps the roads emptier.

 

[dk1]

It will be on your payslip and assuming you’ve got your P60 for the last year your total contributions for the year should be on it.

Thanks. I tend to have a rough idea how much overtime/Sundays I’ve done but have never paid any attention to Tax or NI. Will try to make a comparison if possible.

 

[pt_mad]

Breaking the Unions could well be a vote winner among the wider public...The call by the RMT for the government to join in talks seems desperate...

The fundamental question is why would it be a vote winner? Do working people not aspire for the best terms and conditions they are able to attain? And for society to raise them widely as time goes on? That would be progress and is as old as time itself.

It appears logical the RMT would want the transport secretary to take part in the talks if it's true, as Mick Lynch said, that the negotiators keep leaving the room to telephone the DFT and returning with extra proposals.

 

[bramling]

Yes, but the point is that raising interest rates will make the status quo worse.

You would need the other more targeted interventions to improve the status quo.

The difference between 1% interest rate and 2% is negligible - when compared to the inflation of house prices over the last two to three decades. In my road typical house prices inflation since the 1980s is around 1000%. That is pretty sobering by comparison.

Such house prices inflation is useless if you’re not planning to sell (and indeed a nuisance if you want to pass on in a will), nice if you want to downsize, but catastrophic if you want to buy.

And if we want to look at attributing this, look at the size of London’s population in that time. 3 million or so extra people. No wonder there’s house-price inflation given this increase in demand for housing set against relatively little increase in supply.

 

[Thumper1127]

Thanks. I tend to have a rough idea how much overtime/Sundays I’ve done but have never paid any attention to Tax or NI. Will try to make a comparison if possible.

Comparison is best done using a flat week.

 

[dk1]

Comparison is best done using a flat week.

I don’t think I’ve had one of them in the last 24 years at the very least lol.

 

[urbophile]

Broadly similar maybe, but there’s disparities in things like sunshine hours, rainfall, amount of cloud. Either that or I’m *extremely* unlucky every time I leave the south-east! Put in this way, anyone used to the south-east will find themselves with much more cloud and rain, especially on the west side of the country.

That said, the scenery in others parts of the country more than makes up for it.

More cloud and rain in the west and northwest certainly. But milder winters make up for it. I've rarely been as cold as during the time we lived in London.

More to the point, with this thread: there is a lot of myth making about, not just southerners vs northerners, but on the part of non-rail workers claiming to be much more hard done by (from their various perspectives) than RMT members. They have my full support, as a pensioner and fairly frequent rail traveller. Of course many other people struggle, and deserve much more, but good on the RMT for sticking up for their cause. If only other groups and unions were better at it. Divide and rule is the Tory way; don't play their game.

 

[bramling]

More cloud and rain in the west and northwest certainly. But milder winters make up for it. I've rarely been as cold as during the time we lived in London.

More to the point, with this thread: there is a lot of myth making about, not just southerners vs northerners, but on the part of non-rail workers claiming to be much more hard done by (from their various perspectives) than RMT members. They have my full support, as a pensioner and fairly frequent rail traveller. Of course many other people struggle, and deserve much more, but good on the RMT for sticking up for their cause. If only other groups and unions were better at it. Divide and rule is the Tory way; don't play their game.

If RMT play their cards right they can attempt to lead the way. We can bet other public-sector unions will be watching with interest.

At the end of the day, one of government’s responsibilities is to fund the public sector, which whatever way one looks at it is an essential part of our developed society. Sunak said he could fund stuff like Eat Out To Help Out, track & trace, furlough and all the other Covid excesses. If inflation-matching pay increases (so in real terms status quo) are now unaffordable then evidently Sunak got it wrong.

 

[Thumper1127]

I have to say, having been in west Wales for the last 2 weeks, I see no evidence of people giving up driving. The roads are as busy as ever, and it’s quite evident there are still plenty of discretionary trips (judging by the number of people still driving somewhere to take the dog for a walk!).

What I have noticed is that the longer-distance routes are a bit emptier. The last couple of times I’ve been up the A1 there’s a conspicuous reduction in the number of cars (not other vehicles such as trucks, though), and same when driving to London down the southernmost section of the A1(M) during the daytime. Same when we drove to wales down the M4 during a weekday midday - surprisingly quiet once clear of London.

I’m going to be nasty and say that I will happily pay higher fuel prices if it keeps the roads emptier.

Broadly speaking car journeys are running at about 95% of their 2019 level (and that was before the recent fuel hikes) but this hides the fact that peak commuting is down by a greater amount. Rail, on weekdays is running variously at 85-90%, again against 2019 figures. But the rub there is that there is a significant decline in daily commute, both season and single day peak. The latter have always been the premium fares that really rake it in. I’m told that weekday peak arrivals into Waterloo are running at 60-65% of their 2019 levels. Light trucks and vans are at circa 110%, much more at weekends and HGVs are running at about 110%, presumably as a result of the surge in home deliveries. London tube is down at circa 70-80% weekdays. Long term, as someone else rightly posted, the reduction in peak traffic is probably a good thing as the weekday peaks are very resource hungry. It will take time to settle but WFM has had a massive impact and it will take a long time for the industry to adjust and adapt.

 

[Watershed]

Do you know what percentage it went up? I honestly have no idea how much NI I pay. It’s just one of those deductions always on the payslip & I haven’t a clue how much each month. You are very observant.

A very lucky problem to have! To be fair I'm sure you have a different amount of overtime and Sunday working each month so your payslip varies anyway, but most people would have noticed the 1.25 percentage point increase in their NI rate...

 

[Need2]

Do you know what percentage it went up? I honestly have no idea how much NI I pay. It’s just one of those deductions always on the payslip & I haven’t a clue how much each month. You are very observant.

I only knew because I saw it being talked about.
Apparently it’s to help out the country because the government was so nice paying people not to work during covid!

 

[dk1]

I only knew because I saw it being talked about.
Apparently it’s to help out the country because the government was so nice paying people not to work during covid!

Yet they only bang on about what was spent keeping the railway open. Funny old world.

A very lucky problem to have! To be fair I'm sure you have a different amount of overtime and Sunday working each month so your payslip varies anyway, but most people would have noticed the 1.25 percentage point increase in their NI rate...

Cheers for that. So not too bad then. It’s just 1.25% extra on your annual salary. Suppose it’s with everything else going up right now that makes any increase look worse than it is.