Railways lurching out of control?

[The Ham]

As an aside and trying not to be snarky, the example of 'massive flat screen TVs' as an indicator of relative comfort is overstated. They're dirt cheap these days!

Indeed our 43" one was cheaper than our 24" inch one from 15 years ago (and noticeable so).

 

[Iskra]

If that is the case, a large part of the increase will be being paid back via the tax system.

Yet most train drivers pay tax at the higher rate so, with employee NICs on top, a good 50% of any increase will go straight back to the government in tax anyway.

Appreciated, but the initial outlay would still show up as 100% and not everyone in the rail industry is a fully qualified driver.

 

[ainsworth74]

I've read that a majority of benefit claimants are now in work.

It's a mixed picture and depends a bit on definitions (do you include pensioners in the total?) but just taking Universal Credit, as the DWP produce nice stats for it, as of October 2022 there were 5.8m people on Universal Credit. Of which 2.2m were working (either with no work search requirements or a requirement to seek more work), 1.8m have no work search requirement at all (disabled, carers, parent to a child under 1), 0.4m preparing or planning for work (parent to a child aged 1 or 2, limited capability for work right now, etc) and 1.4m who are searching for work (these would have been Jobseekers Allowance claimants in old money). So of the 5.8m UC claimants 4m are either in work or cannot work.

The Daily Mail and the tabloids like to paint a picture of all benefit claimants being lazy scroungers that need to get off their backside and get a job or some fecund lower class girl just pumping out kids at regular intervals. But the majority of claimants are either in work or cannot work.

As an aside and trying not to be snarky, the example of 'massive flat screen TVs' as an indicator of relative comfort is overstated. They're dirt cheap these days!

It'd probably be more expensive to buy a massive CRT television seeing as it would likely be a custom order

 

[ChrisC]

Which just goes to show how much difference 2tph can make to ridership. Yet we still see many routes all over the country - even along major flows - languishing on 1tph, with no prospect of improvement.

How the DfT can expect revenue to recover when they aren't restoring the frequencies? Many routes simply don't stand a chance as things stand.

Not just major flows but also some very sizeable towns have been left with just 1tph stopping at the station. Mansfield in Nottinghamshire, with a population of 100,000 plus, had its 2tph cut to 1tph during covid lockdowns and still only has 1tph. I have my doubts whether the missing trains will ever return.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

10% of very little, is still very little however.

True. Unfortunately, the other side to that is that very little times millions of people still comes out as a lot of money the Government has to find from somwehere.

 

[Goldfish62]

True. Unfortunately, the other side to that is that very little times millions of people still comes out as a lot of money the Government has to find from somwehere.

It can find it in the same places that it finds the rest of the money it spends. Limits on government borrowing are self-imposed political decisions. It's not like running a household budget.

 

[Iskra]

It can find it in the same places that it finds the rest of the money it spends. Limits on government borrowing are self-imposed political decisions. It's not like running a household budget.

But, there are consequences. It's still not free money.

 

[HSTEd]

It can find it in the same places that it finds the rest of the money it spends. Limits on government borrowing are self-imposed political decisions. It's not like running a household budget.

Increased government borrowing has real consequences, otherwise we could just abolish taxation and run the presses.

After hundreds of billions blown on coronavirus, and tens of billions more on denying the consequences of Thatcherite energy policy, the tank is dry.

We have reached the point where additional government borrowing will be strongly punished by the markets - as Liz Truss found out.

 

[Goldfish62]

We have reached the point where additional government borrowing will be strongly punished by the markets - as Liz Truss found out.

The issue there was tax cuts for the rich, increasing borrowing to fund it. The markets quite rightly considered that to be grossly incompetent.

 

[SynthD]

We have reached the point where additional government borrowing will be strongly punished by the markets - as Liz Truss found out.

That’s a broader conclusion than I see in the papers. It was the surrounding detail that mattered. Some of the recently issued government debt has been inflation linked, a poor decision.

 

[bramling]

The credit card stuff is something you won't be able to for long as you'll get defaults and/or CCJs and you won't be able to take out anymore.

That’s what I’d have thought, but this doesn’t seem to be what happens in reality. The person I know seems to be able to take out credit card after credit card, stack it up, and then default, seemingly with no consequence in terms of being able to take out new ones. What he doesn’t seem seem to be able to do is rent or take out a mobile phone contract in his own name, but the solution to that is to find someone else.

I’m not saying this behaviour is typical, however there *are* ways of getting along if one is prepared to play the game. I’m merely making the point that such people do exist, and deserve no sympathy.

As for shoplifting you'd hope at some point a criminal conviction would come along.

Again, a little bit here and a little bit there.

I'd suggest this sort of behaviour is an edge case, essentially this is a criminal and I hope we're not implying a majority benefit claimants are criminals.

Not at all, but by the same token there are shades on here that everyone on benefits behaves like an angel, and that’s equally untrue.

 

[MikeWM]

Not just major flows but also some very sizeable towns have been left with just 1tph stopping at the station. Mansfield in Nottinghamshire, with a population of 100,000 plus, had its 2tph cut to 1tph during covid lockdowns and still only has 1tph. I have my doubts whether the missing trains will ever return.

...and the connections into it are very poor too. One of the most irritating experiences I had this year was trying to connect onto the Mansfield train at Nottingham from the easterly direction - we were five minutes late arriving into Nottingham, just in time to see the hourly Mansfield be dispatched from the adjacent platform a few seconds ahead of time. Cue an hour of my life. and many other people who appeared to want to make that connection, wasted for no good reason. And that was when trying to make the 'best' connection available of 6 minutes - looking at the timetable, the connections at Nottingham from the Skegness services are 0, 4, 3, 5, 1, 6, 3, 2, 4, 1, 2, 3, 2, 2 minutes. My guess is that you would miss that connection more times than you'd ever make it.

I omitted 'continuing cuts that started due to covid' from my list of woes above, but it is yet another continuing issue - look at the terrible service Huyton is still getting compared to pre-covid, for example, and of course it is even worse further along the Chat Moss line, where most stations only have an hourly service now. Huyton should finally improve next month - assuming Northern can run something like the timetable they are supposed to - but not the stations further along.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Biggest problem is many / vast majority of people do not like giving up responsibility and control. The DfT / Treasury effectively control the railway and don't want to relinquish control but at the same time are not capable of running the railway. Some painful decisions need to be made and soon. I fear for the railways.

 

[bramling]

Biggest problem is many / vast majority of people do not like giving up responsibility and control. The DfT / Treasury effectively control the railway and don't want to relinquish control but at the same time are not capable of running the railway. Some painful decisions need to be made and soon. I fear for the railways.

It doesn’t really help that since Covid there’s been a structure where the TOCs are essentially puppets of the DFT. This must be reducing the ability of managers to speak out. TFL seems the same, and one wonders if this is why Byford went.

 

[Thirteen]

I do think we need to cool it on the hyperbole that the Government will close down the Railways, that's not going to happen.

It doesn’t really help that since Covid there’s been a structure where the TOCs are essentially puppets of the DFT. This must be reducing the ability of managers to speak out. TFL seems the same, and one wonders if this is why Byford went.

TBH compared to Andy Byford's experience at the MTA, the experience at TfL was easier.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I do think we need to cool it on the hyperbole that the Government will close down the Railways, that's not going to happen.

Probably not but the unions are not in as strong a position as they think they are.

 

[trebor79]

That’s what I’d have thought, but this doesn’t seem to be what happens in reality. The person I know seems to be able to take out credit card after credit card, stack it up, and then default, seemingly with no consequence in terms of being able to take out new ones. What he doesn’t seem seem to be able to do is rent or take out a mobile phone contract in his own name, but the solution to that is to find someone else.

Certain credit cards are very lax about affordability etc, the business plan of course is to trap people on very high APR rates.
A logn time ago, but when my brother was a student, he took out a Barclaycard. He only ever made the minimum payment and every time he got close to the credit limit they wrote saying it had been automatically extended. He ended up with tens of thousands on it and when they eventually stopped lending more and demanding he pay it back he told them straight "You knew I had no income and kept increasing the limit. What did you think was going to happen?". I'm not sure how it all got sorted out but I do know he didn't pay all of it back.

I do think we need to cool it on the hyperbole that the Government will close down the Railways, that's not going to happen.

Probably not but the unions are not in as strong a position as they think they are.

Yep. I can see some bright spark at the DfT coming up with a plan to shut "more loss making" routes and concentrate resources on the "less loss making/essential" routes.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Increased government borrowing has real consequences, otherwise we could just abolish taxation and run the presses.
After hundreds of billions blown on coronavirus, and tens of billions more on denying the consequences of Thatcherite energy policy, the tank is dry.
We have reached the point where additional government borrowing will be strongly punished by the markets - as Liz Truss found out.

The ORR summary of Network Rail's accounts to 31 March 2022 shows that interest on their borrowing has increased sharply because of inflation (and will be worse this year).

Rail industry finances showed signs of recovery in 2021-22

UK: The rail industry's finances showed signs of recovery from the effects of the pandemic in the last financial year but passenger revenue remained well below pre-pandemic levels, according to the latest statistical report from the Office of Rail & Road. The Rail Industry Finance report ...

www.railwaygazette.com

total industry expenditure (including financing costs) was £22·8bn, including £10·9bn of franchised train operator expenditure, £10·7bn of Network Rail expenditure and £1·2bn of expenditure by other parts of the rail industry. The 4% annual increase was because of Network Rail’s financing costs of £2·8bn, a 57·8% increase largely due to inflation on index-linked debt

Much of the NR borrowing was at a time of supposedly "free" money at near-zero interest rates.
It is now costing the railway dear.

 

[tbtc]

I’m going to try to ignore all of the other stuff about benefits/ Covid/ Pensioners/ tax rates/ Unions/ furlough etc, because it’s not as if we don’t have enough threads about those

Instead, my simple question is “What did you think would happen when the railway was nationalised under the current government?”

I’ve tried to explain over the past decade on various discussions that “nationalisation” wouldn’t be going back to the halcyon days of British Rail…

…it wouldn’t see the Government hand over billions of pounds to “A Proper Railway Man” and let them get on with long term strategies without any scrutiny…

…It would mean that the railway ended up being treated like various other “public services” have been over the past dozen years of austerity

People must have looked at the struggling schools, the hospital waiting lists, the Armed Forces procurement, the regular strikes because of cuts in areas like Fire Fighting, the hundreds of closed libraries/ sure starts etc and thought “but despite vital public services being treated like this, I totally trust the current Conservative government to successfully manage the railway and leave all the long term decisions to Proper Railwaymen”

Well, guess what’s happened? The days where franchise commitments were guaranteed/ service levels were honoured/ timetables later the intended six months etc… those days are long gone. Instead we have the government who answer to nobody, who’s going to fine them?

So you get the situation like Brigg, where the token Saturday service was too much effort to run, so instead they’ve spent months running trains in the regular parts (for “driver training” etc) but not accessible to the public! Other “Provincial” lines are effectively abandoned for several months at a time and many journeys around the UK can be cancelled as late as 21:59 the night before, with no penalty. Can you imagine if Arriva or Serco had tried to get away with this?

But at least there likes of Arriva had to play by rules. You might not like the terms of the “no growth” Wales & Borders contract that the government agreed with them but they had to maintain their side of the deal and run the requisite number of trains each day. If they hadn’t then there’d have been financial penalties.

Who holds the Operator Of Last Resort to account though? You could complain to your MP about the Arriva arrangement but there’s no accountability any more.

Midlife trains are scrapped (or sit idle in sidings for many months with no future use), fleet sizes are shrunk, there’s clearly no government appetite to solve the staffing issues in England, in fact the railway seems to be making such big losses that prolonged industrial action has the twin benefits of “saving” some money whilst also being a handy political weapon to give the impression that Starmer is either “against hard working commuters” or “has lost touch with the working class”.

It might therefore last until the next election. However unhappy you were about a “zero growth” contract, you know that there was light at the end of the tunnel, that the terms weren’t forever, that new terms would be agreed with the winner of the next contract to give you something to look forward to

Who will force the government to improve anything though? At least in the past there were franchise commitments where the likes of Stagecoach might take the government in court if they reneged on a deal (just like the government could take Stagecoach to court).

No system is perfect, but the one that we had until 2019 seemed okay:

We had five year Network Rail control periods that set out the infrastructure improvements that we could expect, and franchises of roughly “seven” years duration creating a stable environment for firms to make improvements and see some return (with incentives for long term behaviour and the government free to set demanding baseline timetables if they so wished)… that felt like a reasonable mix - TOCs had an incentive to keep trains running (which is why they tended to generally prefer ‘above inflation’ pay rises to prolonged strike periods that would mean no farebox income), the government could move the “goalposts” at each new franchise (e.g. insist on improving certain frequencies or introducing late evening/ Sunday services), most fare rises were agreed months in advance and were annual (Obviously there was flexibility over discounted tickets that weren’t subject to the same protection/ restrictions)…

Enthusiasts will complain about “bus companies” and the apparent waste of money caused by repainting station signs/ replacing staff uniforms every seven years, but it seemed to work for most people - the basket case lines that would have been next on BR’s closure list survived because they were part of the franchise terms, timetables generally only changed twice a year (other than unavoidable issues like engineering works), most fares only went up in January (again, unlike BR), so you could be pretty certain about the level of service you’d expect

Now though, I’d have to check a website after ten o’clock at night to know whether the Operator Of Last Resort intend to at least try to run the train i intend to board tomorrow (no guarantee it’ll actually run, but at least I know whether they even plan to try…). I can’t be certain about a night away because I’d have to go through the same late night online check to see if my train the following day was loaded onto the timetable

We have an unaccountable mess that’s turning people away, we have no guarantees of improvement, we seem powerless to appeal

This is what Nationalisation means though; a railway run as well/ badly as the government of the day treats other public services.

Please don’t waste time telling me about how perfect things would be if you’d been free to nationalise it your way (giving you free reign on how to spend those blank cheques with no pesky oversight from politicians), because a nationalised railway was always going to be as messy as the way that schools/ hospitals/ prisons etc have

In conclusion, I agree that the railway has lurched out of control. The reasons for this are entirely the fault of the Government. But now that the Government have this unaccountable control, why are they going to give up these fun new powers? They jealously guard them, and the private companies will get paid to keep quiet - but this is Nationalisation - this is what people thought that they wanted (and, I suspect, in certain cases, are too proud to admit that it’s not working)

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yep. I can see some bright spark at the DfT coming up with a plan to shut "more loss making" routes and concentrate resources on the "less loss making/essential" routes.

I can't see anything closing, or if it does it'll be real round-the-edges pruning like Girvan-Stranraer (though ScotGov would probably fund its retention), or pointless, low frequency duplicated stuff in London like the Greenford branch.

The idea that we'll see mass closures of things like Manchester commuter lines is just fanciful; the uproar would be massive. Note the furore a certain Northern scenic line generated when that was threatened, or the Fort Bill sleeper, let alone anything that actually serves much of a purpose. We're in different times - the 1980s were the time of the car. We're more likely to see service cuts - pruning of early/late journeys and frequencies above hourly dropped to hourly - as unlike closures only the actual users notice these.

 

[Thirteen]

I can't see anything closing, or if it does it'll be real round-the-edges pruning like Girvan-Stranraer (though ScotGov would probably fund its retention), or pointless, low frequency duplicated stuff in London like the Greenford branch.

The idea that we'll see mass closures of things like Manchester commuter lines is just fanciful; the uproar would be massive. Note the furore a certain Northern scenic line generated when that was threatened, or the Fort Bill sleeper, let alone anything that actually serves much of a purpose. We're in different times - the 1980s were the time of the car. We're more likely to see service cuts - pruning of early/late journeys and frequencies above hourly dropped to hourly - as unlike closures only the actual users notice these.

Exactly, Beeching style cuts wouldn't happen.

 

[zwk500]

I can't see anything closing, or if it does it'll be real round-the-edges pruning like Girvan-Stranraer (though ScotGov would probably fund its retention), or pointless, low frequency duplicated stuff in London like the Greenford branch.

The idea that we'll see mass closures of things like Manchester commuter lines is just fanciful; the uproar would be massive. Note the furore a certain Northern scenic line generated when that was threatened, or the Fort Bill sleeper, let alone anything that actually serves much of a purpose. We're in different times - the 1980s were the time of the car. We're more likely to see service cuts - pruning of early/late journeys and frequencies above hourly dropped to hourly - as unlike closures only the actual users notice these.

Agree entirely.

 

[the sniper]

You are totally misrepresenting my point of view. I am not against railway payrises. If revenue/ridership/profit were up 20% and everything was rosey I'd be quite happy for a 20% payrise (assuming headcount remained flat). But, the railway isn't performing (or if it is, the results aren't coming in to support that) and therefore it must cut its cloth accordingly in my view. If I did a sub-optimal job and sales declined at my work, I would not expect a tax-payer funded payrise. And that's before we start thinking about elements happy for self-destruction due to being pre-occupied with trying to take on a Tory Government that it perceives as weak!

Hard pill to swallow when you spend all day driving around full trains only to read how 'sub-optimal' your job has become... As for your last sentence, I think that says more for the mentality/perception of people on here then the reality of rail staff.

 

[greyman42]

Unfortunately the dire economic situation has everything to do with the massive and ludicrous levels of government borrowing in response to a minor respiratory virus. That is fundamentally what has, barring a miracle, damned the conservatives to a lengthy spell in opposition.

I agree that furlough went on for too long. Unfortunately, if the government had lifted the lockdowns earlier then they would have had Labour/SNP/BBC Sky News/SAGE screaming that they were killing people.

 

[HSTEd]

We have an unaccountable mess that’s turning people away, we have no guarantees of improvement, we seem powerless to appeal

I see no reason to believe it would be any better had the franchise system continued.

The previous system was sustained by a never ending river of public money, and after coronavirus there was no way that that river was going to continue.

We'd have swingeing service cuts and cancellations either way, because there is simply not enough money to continue the status quo ante in the face of a collapse in the farebox. Certainly not with the insane reliance on rest day working and overtime.

 

[Bikeman78]

0848 Padd to Swansea was a 5 car . 1518 back from Cardiff a coupled set.

Cheers. Same diagram then. I wonder how busy the 15:48 down was.

 

[ChrisC]

...and the connections into it are very poor too. One of the most irritating experiences I had this year was trying to connect onto the Mansfield train at Nottingham from the easterly direction - we were five minutes late arriving into Nottingham, just in time to see the hourly Mansfield be dispatched from the adjacent platform a few seconds ahead of time. Cue an hour of my life. and many other people who appeared to want to make that connection, wasted for no good reason. And that was when trying to make the 'best' connection available of 6 minutes - looking at the timetable, the connections at Nottingham from the Skegness services are 0, 4, 3, 5, 1, 6, 3, 2, 4, 1, 2, 3, 2, 2 minutes. My guess is that you would miss that connection more times than you'd ever make it.

It’s not just from Skegness. There are so many destinations that now require a wait of almost an hour in Nottingham if travelling to and from Mansfield. The Norwich to Liverpool train just misses the connection in both directions as does the Lincoln train. The train to Birmingham which connects at Derby with XC services to the SW also just misses the connection. I’ve used the Robin Hood Line regularly since it reopened to connect with trains in Nottingham but during the last 3 years have used it very rarely except for journeys to London where it does still connect. I don’t even use it much for local journeys as 1tph is not as convenient as the local buses.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

We'd have swingeing service cuts and cancellations either way, because there is simply not enough money to continue the status quo ante in the face of a collapse in the farebox. Certainly not with the insane reliance on rest day working and overtime.

Perhaps that could be the offer to the unions to help end the dispute. Not rely on this anymore and staff accordingly. No compulsory redundancies but retrain those that are reassigned. Or am I being way too simplistic?

I agree that furlough went on for too long. Unfortunately, if the government had lifted the lockdowns earlier then they would have had Labour/SNP/BBC Sky News/SAGE screaming that they were killing people.

Indeed. A no-win situation or one requiring total bravery - something politicians are not renowned for!

 

[43066]

No, but they weren't exactly working at full capacity during that period either (and some were even 'getting paid to do nothing' ), while the farebox was relatively empty. You have to take the rough with the smooth. I would also add that rail managers and TOC's handled the pandemic and re-opening period extremely poorly.

The rough with the smooth for many of us is that we have already not had a rise for several years. People in this industry have quite simply had enough, on so many levels. Hence the overwhelming support for this dispute.

I think we both agree that Covid was poorly managed (easy to say with hindsight though) and I did not agree with mandatory lockdowns and closing most businesses down (I could understand not doing large events though) and I even saw furlough as creating a dangerous level of entitlement that some people still haven't recovered from. I and my business had no choice but to follow the law however. No, my salary was funded entirely by my company and I returned to work voluntarily at the first available opportunity, as I have a work ethic and understand it is in my interest for the business to be successful. I also considered myself extremely fortunate to even have a job, as going in to the pandemic, I could easily have been asked to make my entire team redundant and probably put through redundancy myself, which was a sobering position to be in.

We are in general agreement on the Covid position. Obviously I don’t know where you work, but it seems odd that your company wasn’t able to claim back at least some furlough costs if it was of the type that had to furlough staff in the first place.

For the record I fully respect the fact you returned to work, and furlough isn’t something I would have wanted personally either. Sadly many took a rather less selfless approach.

The Government's argument will be that some groups are more in need than others.

Just because there is money for group A doesn't mean there's money for group B.

I think it’s abundantly clear this government isn’t the slightest bit concerned about people in need.

I think the governments argument is that there can be a pay rise but it needs to be self-funded with no extra government support, which seems reasonable with revenue well down. However, some people seem to want to have their cake and eat it...

It won’t surprise you to learn I disagree. That reasoning simply doesn’t wash when the same approach demonstrably isn’t being taken in other areas which are in just a perilous a financial position as the railway. In addition the wider costs to the economy of the dispute need to be considered. Furthermore the government only seems concerned about cost control when it comes to pay rises. What about areas of massive waste such as the ridiculous leasing agreements the DfT has signed up to?

This dispute could be settled easily and relatively inexpensively months ago, yet there appears to be no end in sight. All that is needed is a modest rise along the lines of what has been agreed in Scotland and Wales, and without an attempt to dramatically worsen Ts and Cs.

After hundreds of billions blown on coronavirus, and tens of billions more on denying the consequences of Thatcherite energy policy, the tank is dry.

The tank demonstrably isn’t dry for some people.

Certainly not with the insane reliance on rest day working and overtime.

Perhaps that could be the offer to the unions to help end the dispute. Not rely on this anymore and staff accordingly. No compulsory redundancies but retrain those that are reassigned. Or am I being way too simplistic?

Relying on rest day working is a lot cheaper than the alternative, hence don’t expect it to change anytime soon!

 

[HSTEd]

Relying on rest day working is a lot cheaper than the alternative, hence don’t expect it to change anytime soon!

It turns out it isn't, as the alternative is apparently to simply cancel the train!